Single AKB48 43rd [Kimi wa Melody] (2016/03/09)

I don't think this is an AKB new generation vs. AKB graduates thing.

As someone else said, this 43rd single senbatsu is basically the 42nd single senbatsu + graduates. So adding graduates or not doesn't change anything for the AKB new generation. Just because management brings back the graduates for this one single, doesn't change anything in the outlook for the AKB new generation.

What's actually wrong with the 42nd single senbatsu / 43rd single senbatsu is that management sticks to a model of replacing graduates with sister group members, even in the face of dropping sales and despite AKB breaking their first week million streak.

What management actually did to adress the problem, is close to absurd. In order to save the million streak with the 42nd single, management decided to add an AKB-only handshake event to the 42nd single, that has no kennins and no sister group members. To put it bluntly, AKB-only fans are supposed to save the very million streak that is the main obstacle to AKB-only singles.

As for the 43rd single, management's response to the loss of the first week million streak is to double down and not only add sister group members, but to add graduates as well and crucially, not to start releasing AKB-only singles. Furthermore, management decided to not only release 3 or 4 types of the 43rd single, but 5 types.

So in effect, adding graduates or not doesn't change anything when it comes to the bigger picture of where the group is headed for. Basically management tries for another million with the 43rd single and is running with the same old model that has failed in the 42nd single, they didn't go with an AKB-only single this time. The next opportunity for an AKB-only single might be the fall single of 2016, as the 44th single is most likely going to be the election single for 2016.

 

This is the first time we get 5 types (+limited & theater), right? I guess it's pretty safe to assume that NGT will debut with this single.
Hopefully the tracklists will go something like that:

01. A-side
02. Under Girls/New gen
03. AKB-only song (type A) SKE senbatsu (type B) NMB senbatsu (type C) HKT senbatsu (type D) NGT senbatsu (Type E)
Theater ed: Tentoukabutodendenmushi song or whoever management feels like throwing a bone to.

I don't think neither Akicha nor Mariyagi will get a graduation song.

 

When Kibouteki Refrain was released, people were saying the same thing.

 

Yea, I think it's safe to say that this single will be similar to Green Flash with the groups having their own B-sides~~

IDK about Akicha getting grad song tho on the single? They seem to have forgotten about her tbh lol~ so I wouldn't have my hopes up for a grad song. She might get something like Mocchi at the next concert tho~

 

Grads were not in senbatsu in KR. They only appeared in PV for the plot. This new single is different though, they are in senbatsu.

I see a lot of complains about the Grads hogging the spotlight for the NG. But honestly even if they were not there, NG has few spots to fill. Besides NG has representatives for now. Some of you wants a start for the NG, but can't you see having Mion there means ait's starting now? Or do some of you want a full NG senbatsu? Like management can risk sitting out 1st-5th gen.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with u. I don't 100% agree either, but I can see why people do have some issues. But I really do think we're beating a dead horse here. It's never going to change. Sure, right now we have Rie as the NGT representative (just as we have Sasshi as the HKT-rep), but soon some girl in NGT will be thrust into AKB's single. It's the same process they've done with all the sister groups. Maybe Rie will stay as Sasshi has stayed, but that's only if Rie continues with her popularity (ranking in Senbatsu again essentially).

 

I also dispute that this is a massive cryfest. I said about Kuchibiru that it was a really stale stagnant senbatsu, and I got some massive butthurt cryfest from "old gen fans" (for want of a better term) and a whole bunch of people yelled at me for disrespecting the great goddess Takamina or something. Really, this general sentiment has been building for a good while; at least a couple of years if not longer. It has come out strongly now in particular because we had this whole massive thing about how the previous single was Takamina's last, and the 10th anniversary and all, and then it didn't make a million in the first week. There has been so much talk of passing the torch; even literally in Kibouteki. So I was hoping for a fresh start now. Something different, to revive the fandom and gain new fans. Instead, we have the same dry dull senbatsu. It's just not interesting any more. It may be just one single, but it's been just one single for ages! How long am I supposed to wait?

Also, I think it's a bit unreasonable to be expected to name precisely who I would want in my perfect "new gen" senbatsu and precisely who is new gen as @Puni said, and if somebody disagrees, then what, it doesn't count? We should stick to old gen unless we can all agree on exactly who we want? Obviously the entire fandom will not agree, and my favourite new gen members are not the same as everybody else's. I don't think we need some mathematical exactly defined list of who is new and what constitutes change to see that this single ain't it. Even now, if they put Mion as center I will gladly eat my words a good bit: Mion as center would be a change! I'd be very surprised and very happy.

Even if this single had, say, Mako Juri Naanya Sayaya (none of whom I'm that keen on) and NOT Naachan who is my #2, I would still be much happier. I'd be gutted that Naachan was left out, sure, but I'd be happy that they had some form of change at least. It's really not just "why don't you like my oshi"; it's more "this is very unhelpful to the long term health of the group".

 

I think the main takeaway people should get from Okada's post is that there is a lot of talk about how the new gens just don't have interest from fans/aren't catching on that is patently false. I mean despite getting shafted for opportunities, taking backseat to kennin members etc., there are still girls who fans want to see who are just not rewarded.
I'm one of the last people to say that promotion/selection should be done based on handshakes, but to overlook them completely is a disservice and in the long run management is shooting themselves in the foot. Okada's HS numbers are unrivaled by her peers. People want to see her. She is an excellent dancer, and a more than credible singer. There is nothing holding her back from rising except management's lukewarm support.

And it's not that people don't think a 10th anniversary single is necessary, it's that we've been having this 'passing the baton' narrative for literally years now. Since I *joined* this fandom, the talk has been about how the old gen is leaving and the new gen will have to step up. We having been walking backwards into the future with our eyes fixed on the past for too long. There's always a reason why new gens don't get more - there's always big name old gen graduating, or some other excuse why the line up is what it is. Its stale and old and the narrative is dead in the ground. Last year - a full year ago - we had an album with the whole theme of the generational shift. Here we are in 2015, and it still hasn't happened. Graduations of members like Yuko and Takamina, now Sas, they were bittersweet but they gave us hope because people said 'oh, it was their time, they've been here for so long' but now even graduations don't matter.

It's not that people can't grasp the concept of a 10th anniversary single, it's that we're stuck in a story that isn't going anywhere. Promos for KNBMB were centered in large part around the 10th anniversary in addition to TKMN grad, but now we're getting another single for that same purpose.

I also don't think it helps that these singles are hitting us back to back, because with a 4 single release cycle, 1 will be the election single and 1 will be a mega senbatsu that doesn't mean nearly as much for anyone past the top 16. That really only leaves these two - the fall and spring singles - to show significance for girls who get into senbatsu.

 

lol at @Togasaki saying that the way to save the million streak is kicking out all sister group members. Sure, massively shrinking the HS slots is definitely going to boost the sales of a group that is completely dependent upon them.

You know what, I fell in love with OG AKB so if it were up to me as a fan, obviously my old favorites would've never graduated, but that's not how this is supposed to work. Maybe Akimoto will unexpectedly pull the plug on the group like he did with Onyanko, so he doesn't really care about establishing any new aces, maybe he plans on not letting go of graduated girls anymore, who knows. I'm not even that much of an AKB fan anymore (the last A-side I really liked was Kibouteki Refrain, and the last B-side I really liked was Ikiru Koto) but my favorite group's survival (Nogizaka and NMB) depend either indirectly or directly from AKB staying afloat and that's why I'm a little bit concerned about the future of the group. I used to be a MM fan way back when, and after the 4th gens left, they fell spectacularly sales wise because they didn't have any more members as charismatic as the OG, obviously, the platinum era is looked upon fondly by many fans, and the members were solidly talented and managed to maintain a niche fanbase that allowed them to cruise by, but it took them a complete revamping of the group to be able to earn mainstream notority again. AKB shouldn't be making the same mistakes, they shouldn't put the OGs in a "goddess" like impossible to reach state, Yui's speech was a good way to put everything on the right path, but NOOOOOO, they had to let greed get the best of them and bring graduated members back WHILE also keeping Miichan and Sae in senbatsu instead of expanding it or whatever to make at least room for Okada and Kojima Mako.

 

If they continue like this, I would imagine the graduations are gonna happen to the point that it feels like people are dropping like flies

 

Does anybody know if this single will have the SSK voting ticket?

If yes, what a waste of an opportunity to promote new gen, considering wotas are going to buy loads of this single anyway just so they can vote.

 

Nope, the May single should have the voting tickets.

 

thanks. two months between release are going to make wotas go broke.

 

@rka Of course the idol herself plays a (big) role, but don't let your feelings about people who have less than popular oshimen cloud your eyes, Okada is a really good example of "what else could she have done?" to represent the group. Being the face of the group is a huge opportunity and it's good for everyone, in my humble opinion, to establish a new member who is obviously very well liked and popular within the fandom. I'm glad that Mion is included and we're starting to see new faces in the 48G senbatsu! If Okada can keep up, I think 2016 will be really huge for her as long as AKB48 is afloat, and I'm sure they have a lot of documentary materials ready.

I have no big qualms about sister group aces in senbatsu because I see the 48G group senbatsu as a platform for the whole franchise right now, I have bigger qualms with AKS sacred members being handed everything although their performance clearly lag behind to somebody like Mion and Nana. The agency power is real. We know it's entertainment and playing with fans' emotions is a big part of how they stay relevant and make a buzz, but damnit sometimes I think they're really pushing it LOL

 

Well there's a really large chance that promotions will happen not in March but in February - the 10th anniversary of their actual debut.

Sent from my SM-N920T using Tapatalk

 

@rka Your post impressed me, so I'd like to ask your view about the following: do you think that sometimes a place even in the backrow of an extended senbatsu might nudge a member's budding popularity in the right direction, and that without such push even a naturally popular member might not become such a star as she would have with the push? I'm thinking for example about Sayaya with this (I don't follow her, so I'm sorry if I'm wrong about her initial popularity). I guess what I'm trying to ponder with my question is that whether a member has to be initially/naturally popular before they're selected to senbatsu and are able thrive there, or can a staple and thriving senbatsu member be born from just a push (and are senbatsu members like these more likely to be dropped out sooner).

 

okada may forgot if not only her who suffer because of this mess..maybe she can say hello to tomu
and if they remove graduated member from this single, i'm pretty sure they will add tomu, mako, naanya and juri instead okada to fulfill their spot (maybe this will happen when akb doing promotion on tv program)

 

@rka that was...probably the best explanation I think I've ever heard so far . but yea new gens and under girls or younger girls etc get exposure all the time from variety shows and getting their own episodes on certain dramas and all these other little shows so their faces are plastered everywhere I mean people know them.they can put okada and mako in the senbatsu but what about the other shit load of other girls?is putting okada and mako in going to change everything?you can't put all of them in there.as a fan I want to see the superstars I mean I really don't care about benchwarmers.unfournately

 

I'd say it depends on the members we are talking about different personalities, looks and luck here so we really have to consider case by case

Things worked out that way for Sayaya because many fans dont even know that a Kawamoto Saya exists and being a draftee where almost noone gives any fucks about at that time doesnt help. So when they announce her name in the senbatsu, the fandom rushes to find out about her and she did pretty well in turning the hype into popularity. This thing wouldnt work nearly as well for Naachan being included in the senbatsu since almost 100% of the fandom already knows her.

ps. This is abit exaggerated but you probably get what Im trying to say

 

There are some prime examples:
- Matsui Rena was initialy not considered the face of SKE nor even a front row member. She appealed to fans enough that management reconsidered her position
- Same with Oshima Yuko. The initial center of Team K was Kobajashi Kana but we all now how it ended up.
- Matsumura Kaori, never a big management favorite nor do i think that her fanbase is that big compared to others but the fans she has are dedicated like *** So that is also a point. You don't only need to generate a fanbase but one that is crazy enough.

But there are also members that are initially promoted by management. Sometimes they appeal to fans and become big or don't appeal and end up as theatre girls. For the sake of not generating a further flametopic i'm not mentioning names.

So what i'm trying to say is that there is no formula for success. Like many things in life it just happens. Or differently spoken "Life's a lottery, be lucky"