2018 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Senbatsu
AKB48: Yokoyama Yui, Okada Nana, Takahashi Juri, Muto Tomu, Mukaichi Mion, Minegeshi Minami
SKE48: Matsui Jurina, Suda Akari, Furuhata Nao, Souda Sarina
NMB48: Shiroma Miru, Yoshida Akari
HKT48: Miyawaki Sakura, Tanaka Miku
NGT48: Ogino Yuka, Nakai Rika

Under
AKB48: Kojima Mako, Kato Rena, Kuranoo Narumi, Komiyama Haruka, Oguri Yui
SKE48: Takayanagi Akane, Matsumura Kaori, Oba Mina, Ego Yuna
NMB48: Ota Yuuri
HKT48: Yabuki Nako, Tomonaga Mio, Toyonaga Aki
NGT48: Honma Hinata, Takakura Moeka, Nishigata Marina

Next
AKB48: Fukuoka Seina, Kawamoto Saya, Sasaki Yukari, Mutou Orin
SKE48: Obata Yuna, Kamata Natsuki, Kumazaki Haruka, Takeuchi Saki
NMB48: Shibuya Nagisa, Jo Eriko (NEW)
HKT48: Tashima Meru, Matsuoka Natsumi, Sakaguchi Riko, Motomura Aoi
NGT48: Yamaguchi Maho, Nara Miharu (NEW)

Future
AKB48: Sakaguchi Nagisa, Okabe Rin (NEW), Kubo Satone, Onishi Momoka (NEW)
SKE48: Suenaga Oka (NEW), Hidaka Yuzuki, Kitagawa Ryoha
NMB48: Yamamoto Ayaka (NEW), Murase Sae
HKT48: Matsuoka Hana, Fuchigami Mai, Ueki Nao
NGT48: Kato Minami, Oguma Tsugumi (NEW)
STU48: Takino Yumiko (NEW)
BNK48: Cherprang Areekul (NEW)

Up Coming
AKB48: Iwatate Saho, Nagano Serika, Hiwatashi Yui, Nakano Ikumi (NEW), Yamada Nanami (NEW)
SKE48: Arai Yuki, Kitano Ruka (NEW)
NMB48: Kato Yuuka, Kawakami Rena (NEW), Tanigawa Airi
HKT48: Murakawa Vivian (NEW), Shimono Yuki, Jitoe Nene (NEW)
NGT48: Tano Ayaka (NEW), Kado Yuria, Nakamura Ayuka (NEW)

The 10th AKB48 Sekai Senbatsu Sousenkyo Kinen Waku
AKB48: Mogi Shinobu, Yamauchi Mizuki (NEW), Ota Nao, Oya Shizuka
SKE48: Yamauchi Suzuran, Takahata Yuki, Matsumoto Chikako (NEW), Yahagi Yukina (NEW), Aoki Shiori (NEW)
NMB48: Jonishi Rei (NEW), Kushiro Rina (NEW)
HKT48: Komada Hiroka, Iwahana Shino (NEW), Fukagawa Maiko (NEW), Aramaki Misaki (NEW), Ueno Haruka (NEW)
NGT48: Takahashi Mau (NEW), Nishimura Nanako (NEW), Yamada Noe (NEW)
STU48: Torobu Yuri (NEW)

 

Lol sry about that

 

Njpw? (Sorry,new fan here)

 

I guess NJPW is New Japan Pro Wrestling.

 

According to everyone’s prediction and my own, I’ve calculated the members’ ranks and form a new prediction:
1) Matsui Jurina - SKE48
2) Miyawaki Sakura - HKT48
3) Ogino Yuka - NGT48
4) Suda Akari - SKE48
5) Okada Nana - AKB48
6) Yokoyama Yui - AKB48
7) Mutou Tomu - AKB48
8) Takahashi Juri - AKB48
9) Shiroma Miru - NMB48
10) Souda Sarina - SKE48
11) Honma Hinata - NGT48
12) Mukaichi Mion - AKB48
13) Yoshida Akari - NMB48

 

My plausible hope for Kami 7 this year:

1. Ogino Yuka
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Suda Akari
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Okada Nana
6. Muto Tomu
7. Yokoyama Yui (less than 20 votes from 6th)

 

It is VERY VERY UNREALISTIC, but I love chaos lol:
1. Homma Hinata
2. Yoshida Akari
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Ogino Yuka
5. Miyawaki Sakura
6. Muto Tomu
7. Music
8. Macharin
...

 

Who is "Music"?

 

BNK48

 

Updated my prediction:

1. Ogino Yuka
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Miyawaki Sakura
4. Okada Nana
5. Mutou Tomu
6. Suda Akari
7. Yoshida Akari
8. Oguri Yui
9. Yokoyama Yui
10. Takahashi Juri
11. Kato Rena
12. Shiroma Miru
13. Furuhata Nao
14. Mukaichi Mion
15. Homma Hinata
16. Nakai Rika

And my hope:

1. Ogino Yuka
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Mutou Tomu
5. Okada Nana
6. Suda Akari
7. Yoshida Akari
8. Oguri Yui
9. Kato Rena
10. Takahashi Juri
11. Shiroma Miru
12. Mukaichi Mion
13. Nakai Rika
14. Komiyama Haruka
15. Kojima Mako
16. Yokoyama Yui

 

Fear:
Some curse can happen again this year:

• The third last rank (2009: 28, 2010 - 2011: 38, 2012 - 2013: 62, 2014 - 2017: 78) will drop ranks/unranked and most of them are the newly rank member/re-entries member

Spoiler: Curse 1

2009: Katayama Haruka (#28) -> 2010: #37
2010: Yagami Kumi (#38) -> 2011: Unranked
2011: Matsui Sakiko (#38) -> 2012: #53
2012: Yakata Miki (#62) -> 2013: Unranked
2013: Yamauchi Suzuran (#61) (since Nacchan was partcipated as a graduated member so I'm not counted her) -> 2014: #69
2014: Miyazaki Miho (#78) -> 2015: Unranked
2015: Shinozaki Ayana (#78) -> 2016: Unranked/#94
2016: Miyazaki Miho (#78) -> 2017: Unranked
2017: Takahata Yuki (#78) -> 2018: ?

• Final rank in senbatsu will drop rank (only Dasu & Tomu were able to broke the curse), will Akarin be able to break the curse ?
• Next Girls Center will drop rank/graduated next election

Spoiler: Curse 3

2012: Iwasa Misaki -> 2013: #56
2013: Sato Amina (graduated)
2014: Fujie Reina -> 2015: #35
2015: Anai Chihiro (didn't participate/graduated)
2016: Yagura Fuuko (didn't participate/graduated)
2017: Kato Yuuka -> 2018: ?

• Future Girls center will drop rank/graduated next election (expect Tomu in 2012)

Spoiler: Curse 4

2013: Yabushita Shu -> 2014: #59
2014: Iwasa Misaki -> 2015: Unranked
2015: Sato Sumire -> 2016: #75
2016: Futamura Haruka (didn't participate/graduated)
2017: Sakaguchi Riko -> 2018: ?

• Upcoming Girls will drop rank/graduated next election

Spoiler: Curse 5

2014: Nagao Mariya -> 2015: #69
2015: Saito Makiko -> 2016: Unranked/#92
2016: Miyamae Ami (graduated)
2017: Ota Nao -> 2018: ?

 

Since I love chaos, so here's my prediction of preliminary result: Senbatsu
1. Hana-chan
2. Ogiyuka
3. Tomu (rise tomu rise )
4-5. JuriSaku (could be Jurina first or Sakura first, but the difference is very small)
6. Akarin
7. Narumi (T8)
8. Naachan
9. Miru
10. Yuuri
11. Yuihan
12. Yuiyui
13. Mikurin
14. Miion
15. Daasu~
16. Rikahime

UG center: Nako/one of BNK girls (between Music or Cherpang, I heard both of them are the most popular member)
NG center: Okappa
FG center: Yumirin/Yunana
UcG center: Jo-chan/Moeka
rank 81-100 center: Zukki/Aayan

As I said before, I like chaos result so don't be too serious

 

My prediction for senbatsu:

Spoiler

1. Matsui Jurina
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Ogino Yuka
4. Suda Akari
5. Okada Nana
6. Souda Sarina
7. Yokoyama Yui
8. Shiroma miru
9. Takahashi Juri
10. Homma Hinata
11. Furuhata Nao
12. Takayanagi Akane
13. Takakura Moeka
14. Mukaichi Mion
15. Yoshida Akari
16. Matsumura Kaori

17th place: Minegishi Minami (idk, i feel like she won't rank in senbatsu)

My hopes for Kami-7:

Spoiler

1. Matsui Jurina
2. Ogino Yuka
3. Suda Akari
4. Miyawaki Sakura
5. Souda Sarina
6. Okana Nana
7. Homma Hinata

My dreams for senbatsu:

Spoiler

It's completely unrealistic for some members, but you can dream of anything
I only used members that submitted their application, because otherwise i'd added Goto Rara, Tano Yuka, Tsuzuki Rika, Kodama Haruka, Kashiwagi Yuki and others

1. Matsui Jurina
2. Takagi Yumana
   
3. Ma Chia-Ling
4. Takakura Moeka
5. Kamimura Ayuka
6. Machi Otoha
7. Uchiyama Mikoto
8. Ogino Yuka
9. Jo Eriko
10. Murakawa Vivian
11. Mizuta shiori
12. Nojima Kano
13. Kitagawa Ryoha
14. Kataoka Narumi
15. Aikawa Honoka
16. Ishikawa Saki

 

I know this goes against what I wrote a couple months ago in this thread, but my earlier predictions were based on looking at previous years' sousenkyo votes. But when I looked at twitter and instagram followers and did some adjustments based on the fact that SKE48 fans don't have to travel, the fact that NGT48 seems to have some ridiculously rich fans, that NMB48 tends not to push much effort into this, etc. This is what I came up with...

1. Yokoyama Yui
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Shiroma Miru
5. Ogino Yuka
6. Yoshida Akari
7. Minegishi Minami
8. Oguri Yui
9. Okada Nana
10. Honma Hinata
11. Mukaichi Mion
12. Yabuki Nako
13. Nakai Rika
14. Suda Akari
15. Kato Rena
16. Takahashi Juri

Now, I am not confident in all of these rankings.
BUT... I feel its worth pointing out.
Yokoyama Yui has more twitter followers than Matsui Jurina, Miyawaki Sakura, Okada Nana and Ogino Yuka COMBINED. She also has more than twice as many Instagram followers-- so the excuse "oh, well she started her Twitter a bit earlier and all those fans have abandoned AKB48" doesn't really fly... (though it is probably true for Minegishi, Shiorma Miru and Yoshida Akari likely causing them to rank higher on this than they really will.), Instagram is relatively new and Sakura and Jurina have been on it for just as long as her.

In addition, in the Aikabu game where fans can buy the stock of a member and the more who are interested in them causes it to raise? She is #1 by a rather huge margin over both Jurina and Sakura and a pretty huge margin over Ogino Yuka who is #2 in that game.

Now, I know I am the guy who puts out the unpopular opinions and everyone will disagree and say "pssh" and dismiss it off-hand.
But... when those election results are announced, and when very possibly you see Yokoyama standing on that podium with the crown on her head and the trophy, I don't want to see anyone writing *What?!! This is impossible!!", "No one ever could have seen this coming! Everyone said she wasn't going to be higher than #7 or #9 or barely be in the senbatsu at all!"

And not because I like her-- I find her quite dull to be honest.

I mark it here now-- even though so many of you, and even the official guidebook, have dismissed Yokoyama as a real contender and some even find it laughable that the main AKB48 branch is even going to have a member in the top 5... so many under the belief that all of the Sashihara and Mayu fans will just vanish into the ether and everyone else will be neatly lined up exactly like they were the year before.

And the company that set up this whole thing, printing their guidebook with Jurina as the center, having HKT48 put out their single so close to the senbatsu to hinder Sakura and having the announcements held in SKE48's home so as to crown her the champion years and years after introducing her as the ultimate unstoppable Ace immediately handing her center of AKB48 and then having her be the center of nearly every SKE48 single for years on end and occasionally AKB48 too, Akimoto's personal pet project that he decided was going to be a star from the moment she auditioned...

And, yes, also that silent, shy, melonpan chewing doll-like girl that had all the praise and accolades heaped upon her until people bought in, who was dubbed the future, who was just handed the lead role in production after production without any consideration for anyone else no matter how badly she did so as to further expand her exposure, that centered a single where the company brought back in graduated members just to further cement this idea that the torch was being passed to her, the one who decided to throw everything into this year by telling her fans it was her last one, who seems to have convinced some of her friends to throw away their entire next year, not getting to appear on this next single or really any hope of being in their own group's senbatsu for the next year, and not even enter the election at all just so their fans would feel pressured to vote for her, the one they have basically already signed to a 2-year half-Korean group by pushing her so hard in just the initial opening of PD48 that there is 0 chance she is not in the top 16...

They are both so confident that they are going to win, or if they don't-- the other will-- and just like when Sashihara first took #1 after everyone was so sure she was permanently finished... the result would have been obvious had anyone just bothered to check their comparative fanbase sizes.

 

@Iizuka-Tengu I'm not trying to dismiss your theory but wasn't she in the same position last year? with the big fanbase/followers count i mean

 

Probably a lot of them were shared with Mayu and Sashi. Afterall, they both had even bigger follower bases and a lot of them were probably the same people.
Let alone all the people who might have wanted to vote for someone else but "We must help Mayu overcome Sashi!" or "We must give Sashi the undefeatable streak!"

But, at this point, there is a huge gap between those who care about Yokoyama and either of the girls who are set up to take the crown. That means these are not duplicates. Even if every single last person following both Yokoyama and Sakura vote for Sakura, the remaining followers are still enough to beat Sakura. Same goes with Jurina.

Everyone seems to assume that the fans who were voting for Sashi and Mayu are just going to utterly disappear into the ether and everyone else is going to get exactly as many votes as they did before. But Yokoyama is a big magnet for all of those "DD" voters who are going to vote for AKB48 to be champion... and there are certainly way more of those than there are those who are going to be voting for whomever the #1 for any other group is.

And it seems not only the most likely result...
The more and more I think about it, it is the most just result.

Both Jurina and Sakura have gotten everything handed to them since day 1. Each of them get to be more popular than nearly every other person in their group combined. Not because they are more talented, beautiful, funny, charming or interesting than nearly everyone else in their group combined-- much as I am sure their more extreme fans would claim-- but mostly because they have gotten to do more than nearly everyone else in their group combined. And I am not necessarily saying that they did it all badly. But this whole thing of AKB48 treating everything like a contest, giving everything the consequences as if it were a contest, but in this race basically giving some girls bicycles and special short cuts that only they get to take... and other girls, straight up bashing them in the knees with a big metal bar...

And now Jurina feels entitled to just get the crown because she has been neatly handed everything else in her career.
And Sakura? Sakura writes this long message saying how she feels like she has hit a brick wall and no matter what she does or how hard she works, that all she can do is stand in line and wait her turn....
You know... exactly how every other girl in the whole group who has had to stand behind Jurina and Sakura and given no chances to do anything that they weren't part of and given an advantage in.
But the very minute Sakura is made to feel that way, the way the other HKT48 girls have been made to feel for years on end, she decides she is going to up and quit. None of the other 1st and 2nd gen HKT48 girls who have never even collectively gotten to do all the wonderful things she has gotten to do have given up-- and they are stuck in their positions permanently while Sakura just needs to wait a couple years.

But Yokoyama?...
Yokoyama has done everything she has told, and while she hasn't always shined, she nice and neatly lined up behind her seniors, and even her gen-mates who got priority over her, and she supported them with all her strength. She pulled up her juniors and tried her best to hold them together. She took up the position of voice of the group, one she wasn't necessarily naturally cut out for-- because she was chosen by members, not by management. And she has done her best to improve.

She has never acted entitled and hasn't really received any easily and free hand-outs-- certainly not for the first several years of her career. Yeah, she has gotten to be in the senbatsu for like... ever. Even if it was backrow position, it was a position. So she isn't one of those girls who got bashed in the knees by a metal pipes. In the metaphor that she got good shoes and a headstart over 3/4ths of the other girls. But she didn't get the bicycle and the shortcuts-- like Jurina and Sakura.

And... you know what? So much of that was true of Sashihara too.
Which means... not only is she a big magnet for former Mayu voters, she is a big magnet for former Sashi voters. And her substantially larger audience than those who everyone seems to assume are in contention seems to reflect this.


And I could be wrong. If after the election, Yokoyama Yui gets like #7 as so many here are predicting, I will happily eat crow.
But.... if she does get #1 like I predict from this data, don't say no one could have seen this coming because I told you exactly where you could have looked in order to predict this.
Right now she has more fans than any other member. If she loses it is because she is apparently everyone's 2nd or 3rd choice despite having such a massive following... or, that they somehow collectively didn't realize there was a chance of putting her on top and all didn't bother trying at all.

 

Isn't it just as likely that most 48G fans follow Yui since she's the GM and would tend to post relevant stuff? And Yui pretty much is far from polarizing (does she even have antis?).

So I don't know, but of course, her being the next oshi in line of most Sashi and Mayu fans is a possibility, so fine, maybe she'll be the dark horse to win this year.

***

And Jurina's entitlement?

What's so wrong with getting the #1 spot as a goal? Did she ever outright say that she deserves to get it?

More of she probably feels that its expected from her considering the push she had received.

 

Ahahahah the idea of Yuihan winning really makes me smile.
I really hope that does happen, though. Yuihan is an angel, and she deserves all the best. She did use to have antis because of her early mega-push, but they are probably all ashes by now. I hope so, because she has done nothing wrong and really cares about the group.
But I will forever support 'melonpan chewing doll' because she suits center position so much

Now that the SSK guidebook covers are up, I must say I really want a surprise to happen. Not that the Top 16 is bad (although in my very biased opinion some certain members shouldn't be in there)
Last year it was Ogiyuka, but this year if she takes 1st it will be far from a surprise because we all know it's not her 'huge fanbase' that got her the position. I definitely want Nana to enter Top 5, Mion before 12, Miru and Hinatan Kami 7, but it'd be great for people like Yumirin, Yuuri and Naru to enter senbatsu too.

But meh, I guess I'll be contented enough if Hinachan and Moeka ranks. (Might be hard for Moeka but I believe in her)

Also, this year I want for Miichan to be in senbatsu more than ever. Enough is enough

 

Yokoyama Yui with 129k IG followers has twice as many IG followers as who? Sakura with 328k? Jurina with 137k? Mirurun with 237k? Even Izurina has more followers than Yuihan. Also Yui gets 12k likes on a good day. Sakura's last photo posted 3 months ago got 64k likes. What?

More twitter followers? Yuihan's last 3 tweets got 2.5k, 4k and 2.5k likes. Sakura's last 3 got 5.5k, 12.5k and 16.5k. Nice, now I don't even need to discuss the rest of the "followers are relevant" nonsense!

 

wow u guys are irrationally intense over somethin mirrorin elementary school popularity contest designed to suck money out of kids