Event / Concert AKB48 53rd Single Sekai Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2018/06/16)

Also, a lot of Mayuyu's fans will vote for Sakura who is a more “classical idol” type, and a lot of Sasshi's fans might vote for Jurina because they're into being on the winning team.

Or in other words, we're talking about thousands of people, we can't really predict what they'll do that easily.

 

And a lot of Mayuyu fans will not vote at all because they are busy to support Mayuyu.
Or they vote their another oshimen who still in the group.

 

Well, obviously not ALL Mayuyu fans will vote for Jurina. But as someone who goes to HS events a lot and talks to many fans, both Japanese and foreign, particularly people in Jurina's lane, I noticed a pattern: a lot of people coming to Jurina's HS told me they used to be Mayuyu fans but Jurina was their #2 and now that Mayuyu is gone, Jurina is their new #1 oshi. Even outside of Jurina's lane (and therefore, less biased), like at the theater, concerts, etc., when I asked some people who their oshi is, many people told me it used to be Mayuyu but now it's Jurina.

On the other hand, I have not talked to a single person who used to vote for Sasshi and will vote for Jurina this year. I don't know about people voting for Sakura this year that well since my sample of Sakura fans is a lot smaller (I don't go to her handshakes) but even at neutral places like theater and concerts, I haven't seen many ex Mayuyu fans say their oshi is Sakura now so although my sample size is small, I stand by my comment.

 

It's me who post about that in SSK prediction thread, I won't surprise if Yuiyui can enter senbatsu in high rank (10th-13th).

 

I'd rather her rank high undergirls or low senbatsu at best. Because then there will be room for growth, a consistent, satisfying one.

It'd be sad if she rank high and then won't do as spectacular the next time around. For example, Miion after made center and declared she does not consider herself new gen anymore and then rank in senbatsu and everyone was hyped, only to rank down the next time around and even lose more than 10k votes. Or Komiharu's drop in rank, or Nako's. Or heck, Motomura Aoi's rise and drop and then rise and drop again, that gotta be disappointing.

Partly why I'm skeptical of the Niigata girls. Sudden high rank feels so spontaneous, and unless the rich fans are to stay and won't be swayed by other girls or agendas, the girls will be in the red zone. It's something to be happy at and celebrate, but not to be relieved at, unless it shows consistency over time.

 

In my opinion Ogiyuka will drop. I don't really understend where come from such predictions, she will be so high in rank.

 

simply of this year' RH.. at least it proved NGT fans aint joking.

 

As long as Jurina wins, Yuihime is Kami7 and Juri goes past Top10, I'm fine with anything else honestly.

 

tomurena, sorry for being an idiot, but what is an "RH"? Interent doesn't know this shortcut

 

"Request Hour." An event where fans can vote for the favourite song in 48 groups.

 

Oh,what would you think if Yuihan would get number one?It's probably unlikely but who knows!I would like for Jurina to be number one but I think if Yui get the crown,it would be great too!

 

As she's my current oshi of all 48G, I'd love that, but I'm being realistic haha. Also I think it's about time the puppy wins, stops whining and moves on. (I love Jurina, lol, but I'm just being honest. If we want her to stop whining and crying, she has to win now and then not join SSK ever again, since she wants to focus on SKE)

 

Hint :
NGT48 fans managed to rank in all the NGT songs, and win this year Request hour.
And I think they didn't went all out on this event.

 

That still doesn't mean Ogiyuka won't drop, those fans could be fans of any one of the members... The votes could be spread out too thin and no one goes to the top.
I hope hope hope they will place even better this year, but I'm keeping my expectations low.

 

Not enough data points to say that Ogiyuka will definitely rise, but the two data points that we do have (2017 SSK and 2018 RH) indicate that NGT wotas are a serious force when they want something... Now the question is: Are they tapped out and this is all they can do or will they shock the world at this SSK? We'll have to wait and see.

 

I feel Ogiyuka is still quite niche to be considered a contender for the throne.

Sasshi skyrocketed in 2013 because she was everywhere on TV.
Is Ogiyuka having the same amount of airtime and opportunities as Sasshi did back then?

Instead of making her rank super high, I think NGT fans are aiming to do what they did in RH and have as many as possible girls rank.
Which is already a great feat.

 

Honestly, as long as I'm an NGT oshi I would give a courtesy vote to my oshi and the rest to Ogiyuka. She's the only one with a chance to win and besides, if she win's she'll really promote NGT. It'll be epic. Especially since it's like they're setting everything up for a Jurina victory.

The only thing that'll be more epic is if all of the ngt votes is really just from one ultra rich fan and he decides to play god and give one random NGT girl 150,000 votes.

 

Ogiyuka winning would be huge for NGT.

They would maybe even manage to sell 100k copies of their next single.