1. Check the 2023 Stage48 Member Ranking Results, how did your Oshimen rank this year?

Post your Sousenkyo Prediction (for science!)

Discussion in 'General AKB48 Discussion' started by nakotteiijan, Apr 20, 2018.

  1. nakotteiijan

    nakotteiijan Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    矢吹奈子
    Inspired by rka's thread. However, this time, instead of trying to get a feel for the public opinion on AKB48's A-sides (which you definitely should contribute to, if you haven't yet), we are going to use the "wisdom of the crowd" to predict the Sousenkyo outcome. You can read about it on Wiki.

    Basically, we are going to have two rounds; the first one will be until the preliminary results, and the second round will be until the day of the Sousenkyo.
    • Post your predictions* of the top 16 of this year's SSK (posting predictions that go beyond is possible, but not mandatory) in the thread/DM me with your predictions UNTIL MAY 29TH, 2018 for the first 1st, and UNTIL JUNE 16TH, 2018 for the second round. You can re-submit different predictions, obviously, after the Preliminary results announcement.
    • I'll add them to the Excel document (I will make it available when the SSK is over) and do some statistics, including the predicted Top 16.
    The data from before and after the preliminary results will be separated and counted individually, and posted in the forum in the week after the SSK (no exact date just yet).

    Some guidelines:
    - Please don't use the girls' nicknames. Just put down their full names, in whatever order you like.
    - * Please don't be a troll, for gods sake. No, Nyan Nyan Kamen isn't going to win the SSK.
    - Predictions with less/more than 16 members, or two members in the same place, will not be counted.
    - Predictions that include members that do not participate, will not be counted.

    Thank you :)
    (Also please ask your non-Stage48 user friends to submit their predictions, through you. Please provide their SNS (Twitter, Instagram, Tumblr, Reddit, Discord, etc) handle, in order to prevent multiple submissions by the same person)

    Accepted so far: 22
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2018
    • Useful Useful x 2
  2. singlepersona

    singlepersona Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2017
    Oshimen:
    miyawakisakura
    Copying from other thread with some adjustments
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Okada Nana
    5. Suda Akari
    6. Muto Tomu
    7. Yokoyama Yui
    8. Souda Sarina
    9. Yoshida Akari
    10. Takahashi Juri
    11. Homma Hinata
    12. Shiroma Miru
    13. Furuhata Nao
    14. Mukaichi Mion
    15. Kato Rena
    16. Oguri Yui
     
  3. nakotteiijan

    nakotteiijan Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    矢吹奈子
  4. nakotteiijan

    nakotteiijan Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    矢吹奈子
    Going to compare the end results with those as well.
     
  5. MyaoOshi1

    MyaoOshi1 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2016
    Oshimen:
    katorena
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Muto Tomu
    4. Ogino Yuka
    5. Okada Nana
    6. Honma Hinata
    7. Suda Akari
    8. Yokoyama Yui
    9. Takahashi Juri
    10. Kato Rena
    11. Oguri Yui
    12. Shiroma Miru
    13. Yoshida Akari
    14. Furuhata Nao
    15. Mukaichi Mion
    16. Minegishi Minami
     
  6. Haruka Suzuki

    Haruka Suzuki Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2017
    Location:
    Europe
    Oshimen:
    Isogai Kanon
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Okada Nana
    5. Yokoyama Yui
    6. Suda Akari
    7. Muto Tomu
    8. Honma Hinata
    9. Shiroma Miru
    10. Takahashi Juri
    11. Souda Sarina
    12. Furahata Nao
    13. Yoshida Akari
    14. Mukaichi Mion
    15. Minegashi Minami
    16. Ota Yuuri
     
  7. Iizuka-Tengu

    Iizuka-Tengu Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2017
    After spending way too much time crunching the actual numbers-- looking and recording twitter followers, accounting for who gets to participate in the single being sold, who is the center of that single, who has gotten to be the center on a single this year, which groups tend to vote more heavily for their members and which groups tend not to participate much, etc.... I have come up with a result that wouldn't have been my intuition at all. In fact, this doesn't match what my opinions have been based on for months.
    Of course, I have no data for STU48 members, but I don't think any will land in the top 16.

    1. Yokoyama Yui
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Matsui Jurina
    4. Shiroma Miru
    5. Ogino Yuka
    6. Yoshida Akari
    7. Minegishi Minami
    8. Oguri Yui
    9. Okada Nana
    10. Honma Hinata
    11. Mukaichi Mion
    12. Yabuki Nako
    13. Nakai Rika
    14. Suda Akari
    15. Kato Rena
    16. Takahashi Juri
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  8. Millyna

    Millyna Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2015
    Oshimen:
    okadanana
    1. Miyawaki Sakura
    2. Matsui Jurina
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Okada Nana
    5. Suda Akari
    6. Yokoyama Yui (Team A)
    7. Honma Hinata
    8. Shiroma Miru
    9. Takahashi Juri
    10. Mukaichi Mion
    11. Souda Sarina
    12. Furuhata Nao
    13. Takayanagi Akane
    14. Kojima Mako
    15. Kato Rena
    16. Takakura Moeka

    Please tell me if I put someone who doesn't participle.
     
  9. Matsui Hikari

    Matsui Hikari Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    ^^When you realize that some members start their SNS earlier than others...

    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Ogino Yuka
    3. Miyawaki Sakura
    4. Okada Nana
    5. Suda Akari
    6. Muto Tomu
    7. Yokoyama Yui
    8. Honma Hinata
    9. Takahashi Juri
    10. Mukaichi Mion
    11. Souda Sarina
    12. Furuhata Nao
    13. Oguri Yui
    14. Yoshida Akari
    15. Takayanagi Akane
    16. Takakura Moeka
     
  10. Iizuka-Tengu

    Iizuka-Tengu Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2017
    I accounted for that and divided the number of followers by the years they had been active on twitter. So it isn't even a raw total I used, but rather an average of how many followers they have collected each year.
    In 4 years, Yokoyama Yui has nearly a million followers. In half that time Sakura only has 350 thousand.
    In fact, Minegishi, Yoshida and Sudo all have WAY more followers on twitter than Sakura or Jurina have and only by dividing them by the number of years active did results begin to even out. They even have significantly more active engagement on their posts than Sakura and Jurina, so its not like they are ghost accounts (or, rather, a higher percentage of ghost accounts)... so where exactly have their fans been the last several years? Why have they never come through...?

    It is a good question. Maybe they were tied up in the Sashi/Mayu battle. Thing is though-- there appears to be a much larger fanbase/audience for those high gen AKB members and even if they did badly in years past, if these fans rally and galvanize... what I wrote there would be the result.

    So as much as intuition, even my own intuition, would say "there is no possible way someone like Yokoyama could ever win" and "Minegishi will never be elected into the senbatsu, much less be kami7"... well... the numbers are what the numbers are. Of course, I can't measure commitment or wealth of the given audience, all I can measure is what audience is there.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  11. Matsui Hikari

    Matsui Hikari Future Girls Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2015
    Well, a lot of members have the public interest but not necessarily the rich wotas. By the way, it gets a little off topic here so..yeah. Feel free to pm me though
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  12. Chiarara

    Chiarara Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Okada Nana
    5. Muto Tomu
    6. Yokoyama Yui
    7. Suda Akari
    8. Takahashi Juri
    9. Yoshida Akari
    10. Souda Sarina
    11. Shiroma Miru
    12. Furuhata Nao
    13. Mukaichi Mion
    14. Honma Hinata
    15. Takakura Moeka
    16. Kojima Mako
     
  13. SaikouTan

    SaikouTan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2015
    Oshimen:
    Kobayashi Yui, Miyawaki Sakura
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Suda Akari
    5. Muto Tomu
    6. Okada Nana
    7. Honma Hinata
    8. Souda Sarina
    9. Yokoyama Yui
    10. Takahashi Juri
    11. Yoshida Akari
    12. Mukaichi Mion
    13. Shiroma Miru
    14. Oguri Yui
    15. Furuhata Nao
    16. Kojima Mako
    ngl a lot of that was hope more than actual intelligent prediction, but I just can't leave Mako out... I also doubt the actual results will be anything like this but following trends from the past year I feel that this is likely, even if it won't happen. This ssk feels very unpredictable for many reasons.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2018
  14. nakotteiijan

    nakotteiijan Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    矢吹奈子
    Added everyone! Thank you very much for your participation.
     
  15. nakotteiijan

    nakotteiijan Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2015
    Oshimen:
    矢吹奈子
    Added, thank you.
     
  16. mutomu

    mutomu Next Girls

    Joined:
    May 16, 2017
    Oshimen:
    Muto Tomu
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Miyawaki Sakura
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Suda Akari
    5. Muto Tomu
    6. Souda Sarina
    7. Okada Nana
    8. Yokoyama Yui
    9. Takahashi Juri
    10. Honma Hinata
    11. Shiroma Miru
    12. Mukaichi Mion
    13. Yoshida Akari
    14. Oguri Yui
    15. Minegishi Minami
    16. Kato Rena
     
  17. cristian rojas

    cristian rojas Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2015
    Oshimen:
    fukuokaseina
    1.matsui jurina
    2.miyawaki sakura
    3.ogino yuka
    4.suda akari
    5.yokoyama yui
    6.souda sarina
    7.okada nana
    8.honma hinata
    9.takahashi juri
    10.shiroma miru
    11.muto tomu
    12.furuhata nao
    13.yoshida akari
    14.mukaichi mion
    15.kato rena
    16.nakai rika
     
  18. nanabanana

    nanabanana Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2013
    Location:
    Singapore
    Oshimen:
    miyawakisakura
    1. Miyawaki Sakura
    2. Matsui Jurina
    3. Ogino Yuka
    4. Suda Akari
    5. Muto Tomu
    6. Souda Sarina
    7. Okada Nana
    8. Yokoyama Yui
    9. Shiroma Miru
    10. Honma Hinata
    11. Takahashi Juri
    12. Mukaichi Mion
    13. Takayanagi Akane
    14. Kojima Mako
    15. Yoshida Akari
    16. Furuhata Nao
     
  19. Mikansei

    Mikansei Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2018
    Location:
    Maeda's House
    1. Matsui Jurina
    2. Okada Nana
    3. Suda Akari
    4. Miyawaki Sakura
    5. Shiroma Miru
    6. Yokoyama Yui
    7. Furuhata Nao
    8. Souda Sarina
    9. Muto Tomu
    10. Ogino Yuka
    11. Kurano Narumi
    12. Yoshida Akari
    13. Oguri Yui
    14. Takahashi Juri
    15. Takayanagi Akane
    16. Ota Yuuri

    SKE Matsuri :hmm:
    hopefully eitos aichi representative can join to the party
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2018
  20. チキンギョ

    チキンギョ Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Apr 16, 2016
    1. Miyawaki Sakura
    2. Matsui Jurina
    3. Okada Nana
    4. Ogino Yuka
    5. Muto Tomu
    6. Yokoyama Yui
    7. Suda Akari
    8. Shiroma Miru
    9. Takahashi Juri
    10. Mukaichi Mion
    11. Yoshida Akari
    12. Furuhata Nao
    13. Homma Hinata
    14. Kato Rena
    15. Souda Sarina
    16. Kojima Mako
     

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