Event / Concert AKB48 53rd Single Sekai Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2018/06/16)

Assuming that each member gets roughly the same percentage of votes on the first day this year as last year (for those I even have last year data for), the end top results will look something like this

Matsui Jurina 127,724
Miyawaki Sakura 127,678
Ogino Yuka 79,324
Okada Nana 77,088
Kato Minami 65,550
Suda Akari 57,595
Yabuki Nako 57,427

That isn't running everyone's numbers though. I just looked at the top 20 from this year's day 1 list or so that I ranked in both day 1 and final result last year.

So it is super premature to call this any sort of big win for Yuka. If things work out like last year, her and Nana are reasonably close for 3rd place and it could go either way.
And the contest between Jurina and Sakura for #1 isn't over by a longshot! Just a basic estimation puts the final results there within 50 votes of one another, even a single person could be the deciding factor!

 

I was able to get the vid to play, but it only showed like 6 minutes from the intro to right after Junji-San cut the envelope with the scissors.

 

Congrats to Ogino Yuka for ranking #1 two years in a row and breaking her own record. I've been quite interested in her SSK trajectory since last year, waiting to see if her rank was a fluke. Turns out it's not and I'm expecting her to rank #3 in the final results, after Jurina and Sakura. I'm still not that convinced she can keep that extremely fast pace in the weeks to come. Last year, she got 55k votes on day 1 vs less than 20k votes in the 2 or 3 weeks to the final result.

 

Some more random thoughts....

No Hana chan.... management must be getting the russian hackers on the phone to get this fixed

Also, no Moeka in prelims... we'll see what happens in the final vote

Cherprang getting more votes than Renacchi

New center, Mayu's successor, 1 in 20000 year bishojo Oguri Yui only get 37 more votes than Zukki

That Okappa drop.... also Hinatan had a significant drop as well. Is Tano Ayaka going to be Hinatan 2018 and make a miracle rise into senbatsu?

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

 

You guys keep forgetting fans who who may have left the fandom have been replaced with newer fans who might be younger executives with money to burn especially for a girl. No house mortgage or family to support (yet).

 

So to put some basic numbers down... out of the 120 announced it broke down like:

AKB48 - 40 members (including 16 Team 8 members)
SKE48 - 30 members
NMB48 - 13 members
HKT48 - 20 members
NGT48 - 13 members
STU48 - 2 members
BNK48 - 2 members

I would love for Music and Cherprang to actually rank in the final 100, for Team 8 to have 16 girls rank as their own fan-decided senbatsu of sorts, and for (somehow) the NMB contingent to increase!
First day results are fun but are only the barest indication of the final. Now the real wait and the real fan focus begins...
Congrats to Ogiyuka, Juri, everyone who made it and also to Naiki Kokoro as NMB's highest ranking member!

 

I wonder if Murayama Yuirii participated, where she will right now...

 

OK but who tf really thought Yahagi Moeka was gonna rank this year?

Like, she got in literally 4 months ago. Nobody has made it in their first SSK.
Selling out 26 slots just means fans want to check her out because of the hype, no more no less.

EDIT: Wait, Katomina made it on her first, right? Still...

 

I would be so for Ayakani miracle rising to Senbatsu or Undergirls. If Katomina manages to keep her rank we’d have all five of NGT’s original SukaHira pull off a super quick rise in SSK results

 

The eternal question of Murayama....

 

Miichan and Matsuoka Hana didn't even rank, Jurina might fail again to win even without Sashi and Mayu... what a wonderful preliminary results

 

Ok Cherprang 4315... but her vote donation site says that they have collected money for 12989 votes
Edit: Together with individual votes she should have been in the top 10?

 

Katomina and Sakura but they are the 1st gen of their groups and Yahagi is not.

 

I know that there are many ways to vote not just CDs. such as app mail akb, ske, nmb etc.... But Other members can use these ways too not just ogiyuka fan only. Her fan aren’t the only group to vote by these ways. Sakura fan or Jurina fan can do that too.

I know many people don’t like my comment from disagree and dislike react. But I just want to “see” her sentai photo. Somethings like onishi, cherparng ,Music had https://twitter.com/cherodinger/status/1001275548931313664?s=21
https://twitter.com/dreamonishi/status/1001525367314628608?s=21

I don’t hate her, I really love and adore her. She is a hard working idol and deserve good rank but I just need clear evidence to prove that her rank isn’t rigged by management.

 

The prelims change so much there’s really no reason to go crazy over them. But anyway it’s nice to see the foreign girls barely get any votes at all!
So much for the “power of bnk” lmao

 

SKE48 wotas are not joking... I don't surprise if this year end up be like 2015 SSK, with SKE48 has most ranked member. Tomu in 18th place in preliminary result is actually high for me, since in 2015 & 2016 she ranked low in preliminary result but she end up ranked in senbatsu so I still hope that she can make into kami7.

 

Good luck to Nao and Akarin tho. I hope they can stay in senbatsu. Churi would be fine if she doesn't make it again.

 

I believe they've collected 12k, but they haven't voted 12k.
they don't have the riripon scanner maybe?

 

Well, someone has to physically input the codes, right?...
Even getting over 4000 codes input in a single day is quite impressive if they have less than 10 people doing that.

 

It depends how large the team doing it is. Some SSK committees enter 1000-2000 codes (from CDs) per team member in first day, all by hand. If her SSK committee has 30+ members this is doable (or some other helpers, like friends or family who also help entering codes).

I'm not saying that she will rank for sure, but just because she isn't in top 120 for the 1st day results hardly means anything. Even members aiming for senbatsu like Miichan and Sally are not in top 120.