Event / Concert AKB48 53rd Single Sekai Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2018/06/16)

Well the time SSK was held in Fukuoka Dome HKT did well too. But in 2020 when it is held in Osaka Dome (unlikely but let’s pretend for the sake of “home field advantage”) will NMB wotas do the same ? And what about that election in 2015 when it is supposedly AKB’s 10th year anniversary ?

While I agree that no group get the double kill of 10th year anni + SSK held in homeground but c’mon look at last year and this year. People can obviously propose a place to held SSK (Okinawa) and/or vote for it (Nagoya Dome) so saying SKE’s fans / Nagoya people have more pride is just similar to saying other groups’ fans have less pride (or just don’t care).

Also, every SG is having two releases per year and fans almost have the same amount of money, so release calendar virtually can hurt none (or just change some small amount).

 

@marioworldakb forgot to link it.

https://twitter.com/sugi_ken11/status/1008269210160525312

It was a factor for NGT when in Niigata. And HKT when in Fukuoka.

Why would it not be a factor for SKE in Nagoya?

 

One thing to remember, those who attend the concert have one last voting code. And half of the dome was packed by SKE's fans.
But even with that, I think it played role for the middle ranks where the difference is just hundreds (even there is a 1 vote difference). Not really significant for senbatsu who has tens of thousands of vote already.

So, that's some kind of home advantage also.

Mmm, are you sure you want to bring that up? between those two? never ever mention about Okinawa for SSK again. I think many fans will agree with my statement above. The cost to just go there is already expensive enough...coupled with typhoon season
I'd say Hiroshima for the next or 2020 SSK.

When she was called at #47, it was one of the best moment for those sitting in Team8's section. The topic after Naru is either, we only have two left or where's Nagi and Seri.

I sit at her oshi section. The ojiisan beside me start calculating whether she will rank or not since they reveal that #100 has 14000-ish votes and got really worried since the beginning. Turns out pretty well. But IMO a big thanks to DD's votes.

she was, just listen to her speech and the moment they called her. Hopefully the leaders know how to cheer her up. But she looked great at the HS yesterday.

 

Wow talk about dedication

No worries Mirurun, next year I'll sell my family for you!

 

Maybe some Yahoo employees voted for her

 

Imma sell my organs for Naachan next year!

 

quoting this for the lulz....will quote this again next year okay?

 

But when it was held in Niigata only Katomina ranked?

 

Im guessing they'll do this in Osaka next year for NMB

 

Niigatans were blindsided by how fierce the competition was. They've been blitzing RH and the prelims every year since as revenge.

 

Isn't it the first SSK for NGT, when they are still nobody back then? Getting Katomina ranked and Rie back to senbatsu is a good achievement I guess.

 

Yeah, in Niigata it wasn't a factor but the group was pretty new. An Osaka Dome election might push some more NMB girls ahead, but doubt it will do a miracle like pushing Akarin to the spot light. Now, if it were in Fukuoka it might help Sakura, if she goes there.

 

I think you guys are massively otherthinking the "home field" advantage here. It is SO easy to travel between major cities in Japan. Nagoya is an easy day trip from Tokyo or Osaka. It wasn't a huge hassle for anyone to get to Nagoya. It's the most centrally located major city. It's just that SKE always overperforms at SSK. It is a point of pride for SKE fans.

 

Yeah, but it wasn't until it was held in Okinawa that they crushed the event.

It also didn't help Ranrii, the Okinawa Eito.

I doubt they'd even care then. After this year...

I think next year they'll do it in Hiroshima if only to promote STU as the area representative.

NMB can way until 2020 for theirs.
And even then, I wonder if management will allow the event to leave Tokyo, since everything will be happening there.
Venues might be going through refurbishment in that period, so maybe Kyocera isn't that far-fetched.

 

For Niigata members, they didn't get much support until after the 2016 SSK. Niigata Otakus up to then had allegiance to other already established 48/SGs groups. Watching YT commentaries from NGT48 fans from Niigata, you can see they support NGT48 but still will support their previous non NGT48 or 46 oshimen.

 

I mean for all the talk of single release timings, NMB’s latest bombed HARD and everyone expected the Osakans to be finally gearing up for an SSK run instead but they had probably their worst SSK in memory.

The hit of HKT single release didn’t seem that huge to their SSK results either, though I guess a portion of the Sasshi voters helped buffer against any blows. In fact despite Sakura’s loss HKT’s future had a net win with Nako Miku rise imo.

I think Jurina camp legitimately played the long game. After 2016 when she placed 3rd Sayanee/Yukirin gapped so she has no real competition whilst also knowing it’s near impossible to catch up to Mayu/Sasshi in one year. Hence in 2017 Jurina got 3rd with almost exactly the same amount of votes. Her oshis were probably planning for this 10th year anniversary for a huge surge to at least push Jurina past Mayu to 2nd but then Mayu graduated and Sasshi abstained so the path was suddenly very clear to 1st. The Nagoya home field buff was just the cherry on top.

 

It would honestly be really exciting to see Sasshi apply to the election again next year. Sasshi has some fierce competition for the first time since 2015 (ironically, she had about the same vote count that year as Jurina did this year). I really thought Jurina would get about 130K votes and win the sousenkyo by default since everyone above her left but she has proven herself! Sasshi participating might motivate Jurina oshis to push Jurina above 200K and eventually come closer to Sasshi than anyone has.

Also, am I the only one who thinks Mion is the best candidate for Soukantoku? For one thing, she pulled herself above all this management BS of hinting that Juri would be the next soukantoku a while back and more recently hinting that Berin would. Mion is the first member to show outright interest (although I think Naachan is interested too, she has never expressed her feelings explicitly). I'd personally like to see Mion as soukantoku and a "vice soukantoku" title given to Naachan.

 

Too late to drop a couple of cents? Well, since I had this all written out anyway:

Spoiler: 10th AKB World Senbatsu Kinen Waku thing

Interesting to see a variety of names pop in here, from old gens re-entering like Oya Shizuka to new people like Unjo Hirona; if this is a one-time unit (I think it is? Unless management decides "what the hell" and include it from now on) it'll be an interesting gauge for fans to see how many votes they need to crack Upcoming Girls - Ueki Nao almost missed out on a spot on stage by 203 votes. Random thoughts:

• From my previous NMB oshi, it's cool that the little Jonishi sister ranked!

• That drop for Kato Yuuka was rough, and the biggest drop for a ranking member who didn't opt out, according to Wiki48
• Nice to see an STU member ranking, in what people could consider their "true" first SSK

Spoiler: Upcoming Girls

Some interesting surprises here! Though still a place where random young members appear there are still some names popping up that I would not have expected, even after anticipating a drop:

• Okappa and Mahohon dropping was surprising, would've expected NGT fans to hold up these front members, maybe a 4 place drop at most! But...
• Glad Oguma Tsugumi ranked in! She's grown on me since her first NGT PV where she decided to learn Taiko drums the songs they have her center is not always my cup of tea, but happy for her none the less
  
• Glad to see a BNK member rank in, and by a decent margin landing herself more or less in the middle of the group! Also, shout out to the translator, kudos for trying to say everything by ear at first
• Also happy that STU's ace ranked in, showing at least that the public is behind Management's backing
  
• That Goto Moe reaction when she found out she was center made me smile ^_^

Spoiler: Future Girls

Funnily enough, from my view the more obscure names ended up appearing here rather than in Upcoming Girls! But still a few names I can actually talk about:

• Nakamura Ayuka ranking is a highlight for me as my NGT Oshi! Glad she made it, always cheery with a smile on her face
• And speaking of smiley people, Shibuya Nagisa! I didn't realise this area is more or less her spot, having ranked around here for the last 3 elections, but no matter what she always has a wide grin which made me warm up to her a bit
• While I didn't expect a meteoric rise, I was surprised that Komiyama Haruka didn't rank higher, espsecially with the growth she's shown over the last couple of years; expected at least mid-Next Girls
  
• Kuranoo Narumi dropping was a surprise, after sitting comfortably in Undergirls last year, but at least she'll get to center another AKB B-side

Spoiler: Next Girls

Comparatively speaking there were less new entries here but more big shifts which stood out here, including:

• Tomonaga Mio, but I felt she took this drop much more gracefully than last year, which was probably a big shock when that happened in 2017; felt like she had a really mature approach
• Uchiyama Mikoto ranking up! As a de facto KII oshi the fact that our Sub-Leader ranked not only in but well makes me really happy
• Kato Rena and Nakai Rika dropping to Next Girls - would have thought Renacchi would have stayed in at least Undergirls, especially with her PB being released and her steady rise for the last few years; I guess the bad press might have had something to do with Rika's drop, but after her speech what's going to follow will be even more interesting to see unfold

Still reading? Nice one :

Spoiler: Undergirls

Some stable names, with still a couple of surprises:

• Minegishi Minami dropping that far is surprising, but not entirely out of place; I don't like saying members should graduate because it could be disrespectful to their fans, but it does feel like Miichan is nearing the end of her ABK journey
• I'm glad Kato Minami ranked so high! The fact that she was the first NGT 1st Gen to rank but the following year more NGT members outranked her makes this spot even more satisfying, that fans are giving her this push instead of letting her fade for other members, like...
  
• Nara Miharu, who earns my coveted "...Who is this member again?" award! I have to give it to this fanbase for still having the power to randomly throw people into Undergirls, even after 10 years of this craziness
• Really happy for Kitagawa Ryoha!! After a few years of pushing plus several years of middling returns she jumped to a solid spot in Undergirls; maybe being Team S's Leader is treating her well after all
• Actually surprised that Shiroma Miru ended here, and like many thought she was gonna be NMB's senbatsu representative, along with Akarin. Some very interesting times for NMB's management...
  
• This entire time I was waiting out for "SKE48, Team KII" and expecting my oshi's name to appear, so you can bet I was damn surprised like everyone else when Takayanagi Akane and Matsumura Kaori appeared instead! Even I thought they were two of the stronger candidates of SKE when it comes to SSK, showing the overwhelming power of KII in these events. But seeing them here at the final call of the Undergirls only meant one of two things, and even though I've faded into the background of this fandom my heart was actually beating double time...

Spoiler: Senbatsu

As they say in every Star Wars movie: "This is where the fun begins":

• Yabuki Nako and Tanaka Miku getting senbatsu was a real nice surprise; as I was making my list of members who haven't ranked yet that are usually guarantees I noticed that those two had yet to be called, and there was some nice voting by the HKT fans to not only put them in solid senbatsu spots but also next to each other
• Oba Mina to senbatsu: I'll admit, my optimist and realist battled it out and had me place her at low senbatsu at best, so I was fully expecting to hear her name to be the next one called out every single time; but as we climbed I was genuinely in awe of how many people she got past, to the point I thought maybe the unthinkable happened I'm so happy she got to single digits - even though she had set her own crazy target of #7 it was just a random high number with her true target of just being in senbatsu; many congrats to all my fellow Minarun oshis, we did by her good
  
• Muto Tomu - as I heard in an NBA 2K song once, and which was apparently quoted from an English Darts commentator: "This is the greatest comeback since Lazarus"
• To the very end we still had one more surprise, and of course it's Suda Akari taking 2nd over Miyawaki Sakura! What looked to have been a straight one-to-one was thrown completely left field, and actually made me gasp when I heard the announcer say "HKT48"; re-watching that moment you could even see Dasu was resigning herself to 3rd place, so I couldn't help but cheer with her when she realised the made it good for her and her fans, and comiserations to Sakura

Spoiler: Final thoughts and random trivia

• TPE48: did anyone seriously expect them to have a member rank? The way everyone was talking about them I thought they had been there for a while but they only officially had members in February! Very few members who took part in SSK after being active for only a couple of months ever ranked in, and just of the top of my head I'd say none; at least BNK had been active since February last year, so to have two members from their group rank in an international competition is impressive
• as @x_AozoraKataomoi_x already said AKB had 30 members rank in and the most out of all the groups BUT there were 7 members that ranked in the special 81-100 unit; had this been a standard SSK the gap between AKB and SKE would have been only one - 23 AKB members to SKE's 22.
• Has NMB really given up on SSK? I know it's been a small group of them even when they started ranking in, but this is the first time since the 5th SSK that there's been less than 10 members ranking from their group, and without the extra group at the end they would've only had 6 members ranking...
• Fascinating that, with so many new methods of voting and with girls moving around up and down the board, there are still two members who didn't move an inch: Shinozaki Ayana, who finally manage to rank #94 when it mattered, and Komiyama Haruka, who actually ranked in two elections in a row in the exact same spot, despite an increase in votes; like Mio, though, she took a really mature approach, and was glad to see she was all smiles during her acceptance speech

That's all folks, thanks for glancing through! Back into the shadows I go...

 

Girl. She already roasted Riripon.

 

I agree it would be super fun if Sasshi re-enters to duke it out with Jurina for the throne. It would be an uphill battle for J but I think they might be able to break 200k. Of course Sasshi might just casually break the 300k barrier given her wotas wallets are not nearly as depleted from this year.

The good thing is despite both of them having more antis than anyone else in 48G I doubt the before-during-after of the actual election would be nearly as stressful and toxic as this year. Sasshi’s legacy is already secure even in the highly unlikely case she loses and Jurina has already finally gotten that #1 under her belt and facing Sasshi is more like fighting the optional secret superboss in a video game.

My dream is Sayanee and Yukirin rejoin as well for a real Royal Rumble but alas the chances will be slim (especially for Yukirin since NGT now has Ogiyuka and AKB has Nana).