Single Sakurazaka46 3rd Single [Nagaredama] (2021/10/13)

Much lower than I was hoping for, seems like we still have a way to go, but with over half of the girls sold out and 8 still under the half way mark, i feel like a 3rd gen is coming to boost the sales welp.
Hoping for 350k first week, 400+ total

there hasn't been any updates on it so here is the 9th HS sales~
https://twitter.com/sakuzakacentral/status/1448180293697818625

Updates in text format:

Takemoto Yui sold out round 6, Seki Yumiko at round 7, Inoue Rina in round 8.
Aoi gained another sold out slot in round 9, bringing her to 10/36.
Akanen and Akiho sold 2 and 1 slot, bringing them to 8/36.
Uemu sold 1 slot, bringing her to 5/36.

Aoi, Akanen, Akiho, Uemu, Fuuchan, Marino, Hikari, and Ozeki are the girls yet to sell out.

 

I'm not good with keeping track of sales, so I'm checking Wikipedia and yeah, it's a bit low compared to previous singles, but I'm hoping for 400/450K. At least to keep the numbers steady until next single.

I think we discussed every single reason why Sakura is still at this point, so I won't duel on the causes, but I agree on the group having a long road ahead... and it's not necessarily a negative thing.
Honestly I would been more worried if the 1st single sold like crazy and then things went down..

About 3rd gen, I wondered if we were getting it after Nogi announced auditions for their 5ki, but even if we got them it would pass at least anoter year before they can really boost the sales. Before that I hope in a winter single and maybe a March/April single.
If we hit THE song that makes head turns there, we may not need another gen so soon.

 

Depending on my mood it's either 'stagnating' or 'keeping it steady'. Today I feel alright, so the latter it is
Sakurachans haven't really gained any new fans, but seemingly managed to retain the old ones, so the worst case scenario is avoided for now.
I get the idea that S&F is saving up for now, planning for more substantial releases once the handshakes become viable again.

 

Comparisons:

Nobody's fault
307,643 (day 1)
408,926 (week 1)

BAN
300,704 (day 1)
373,547 (week 1)

Nagaredama
303,232 (day 1)

Both Nobody's fault and BAN were certified by RIAJ with 2×Platinum (shipped over 500k)

It's definitely not big growth but I can understand handshake helps a lot and meguri is not the most attractive event for idol fans. This is a problem for the entire idol industry right now and you can tell that from big groups being down significantly. Once handshake comes back is when we start to see snf and Aki-P turn up the quality sky high.

If this happens before 3ki audition, I don't know. Pandemic and vaccine is still not calm yet to shake hands and hug with each other. Concerts are still muted in Japan. Biggest step was to allow big venues like Tokyo Dome to have people gathering again. That's a big win so far and next step should be open up handshake events again.

Edit: I forgot to add Nagaredama

 

This is quite a solid release. Not a single bad song in the bunch.

My only complain would be that Nagaredama and Dead End are a bit too similar in their style (the instruments are almost the same? fff).
Plus, Dead End deserved to be an A-Side. It's probably one of the catchiest idol songs of the year with Kimi Shika Katan.

 

Billboard Japan has released their sales numbers as well. If I understand their counting system they include digital sales and international shipping while Oricon does only focus on physical sales from retailers in Japan.

Comparisons

Nobody's fault
366,362 (day 1)

BAN
364,273 (day 1)

Nagaredama
365,812 (day 1)

https://www.billboard-japan.com/d_news/detail/104892/2

 

Oricon

Day 1 (10/12): 303,232
Day 2 (10/13): 32,109 (335,341)

 

Nagaredama was performed at Music Station today! It seems like they got quite a lot of compliments from the audience.

Spoiler

They wore the red outfit in the MV, which is much prettier to me.

At the beginning there is a scene where the girls hold phones while Hono is recording some kind of videos. Kind of reminds me of Student Dance.

[oversize image]

 

Oricon

Day 1 (10/12): 303,232
Day 2 (10/13): 32,109 (335,341)
Day 3 (10/14): 13,569 (348,910)

 

It's like there is a big segregation between those sell out and those who don't.

I'm surprised by Masumoto's popularity (or maybe I shouldn't be...). On the other hand, is Nen not selling out a recent thing or has that been the case during Keyaki?

 

It's a recent thing since Sakurazaka and the lack of handshake.

I recommend to go back to Keyaki's Kuroi Hitsuji thread where all members sold out their slots which was the first time ever for a 48/46 group to do. However, Hiragana's slots were cut to half (12 slots) due to the rebrand of Hinatazaka and their first single coming out a month after Keyaki's 8th single.

It's depressing times to look at Oricon sales because they are always dependent on handshake sales. Meguri is not very attractive. We shouldn't have too high expectations when many members can barely sell out 10 slots. Akipo has grown her fandom to 8 slots in meguri but it doesn't increase the CD sales by a big margin. Ozeki who used to sell out 24 slots in 2nd round in Keyaki have lost those fans during the pandemic.

Empika-chan and Marinon have grown their fandom to 2 slots in this single. They went from nothing in the last two singles to 2 slots despite meguri.

It does also helps not so popular members with songs having a worldview unlike the last two singles.

 

Oricon

Day 1 (10/12): 303,232
Day 2 (10/13): 32,109 (335,341)
Day 3 (10/14): 13,569 (348,910)
Day 4 (10/15): 9,210 (358,120)
Day 5 (10/16): 11,000 (369,120)

 

Comparisons:

Nobody's fault
Day 1 307,647
Day 2 52,077
Day 3 16,495
Day 4 10,369
Day 5 14,579
Day 6 7,730
Weekly: 408,897
Billboard Japan: 414,024

BAN
Day 1 300,704
Day 2 31,022
Day 3 15,856
Day 4 9,333
Day 5 9,243
Day 6 7,387
Weekly: 373,545
Billboard Japan: 405,360

Conclusion: Kanji fans were scared away by Nobody's fault or BAN. The drop happened between Nobody's fault and BAN. Some of the fans who didn't bought BAN are coming back but others are still missing since Nobody's fault was their last single they bought.

BAN release had the chaotic and intense title song and the nostalgic Guuzen but not enough if you were a fan of Kanji Keyaki. I wish they weared school uniforms for Guuzen instead of the terrible costume they got.

Nagaredama is bringing back some of the fans who skipped BAN. If Utsukushiki Nervous and Mugon no Uchuu can change my mind to like them then more fans can be convinced to like Nagaredama release. This might get long legs due to what happened after Nobody's fault. Fans who didn't like BAN will buy Nagaredama in the release week and some will wait.

 

Yes I think that Nagaredama gives me a sense of a Keyaki single than Nobafa or BAN with an interesting worldview and also a unique choreography to express that. I'm glad that they changed the style in this single. Nobafa and BAN really look like 2 sides of the same coin with the same colour palette (of the covers) and the same Sakura8/triple centers thing.

 

Oricon

Day 1 (10/12): 303,232
Day 2 (10/13): 32,109 (335,341)
Day 3 (10/14): 13,569 (348,910)
Day 4 (10/15): 9,210 (358,120)
Day 5 (10/16): 11,000 (369,120)
Day 6 (10/17): 6,812 (375,932)

Week 1: Obviously #1 - '376,000' on following article but rounded (Oricon does this regularly - 37.6 x 10,000, rounded to nearest 1,000), slight adjustments will be barely higher than 375,932 that we've been manually counting all week (just like other releases) once the full weekly sales numbers are released Wednesday at noon (JST)

https://www.oricon.co.jp/news/2210736/full/

Barely higher than BAN (see @Rev4's post above) but still below Nobody's fault levels.

 

This might be an unpopular opinion but I don't know why Sakurazaka has to appeal Keyaki fans like if there is no more people, I don't see Nagaredama as something Keyaki would do. At least for me they are a new group and has bring more people to joim their fandom if that includes Keyaki fans, great, but I don't think hat must happen.

Having said that I think we should't be too much worried about the sales becuase to my eyes this is a new group and need to gather more fans. I do think the decrease between NobaFa and BAN is because some Keyaki fans didn't like Sakurazaka and thier system. But I think mngmt found a way to boost sales by using this same system. I mean with all the changes in senbatsu fans will definitely buy more copies in order to support their favorite member, so she can be in senbatsu, sakura 8 or center next single.

So if next single there are more changes then It will be something positve, at least that's what I think.

 

I don't think it's a bad idea to expect an evolution of Kanji when Hinata became an evolution of Hiragana. Both have origins in Keyakizaka after all.

But the problem has been identity for Sakurazaka since snf thought the whole colorless thing was such a good idea with "can dye in any color". It wasn't established well or utilized well either. They haven't learned anything from the past. Toriizaka as black changed to Keyakizaka as green. Overture made for Keyakizaka and now changed for W-keya because Hiragana joined.

They keep stumbling with bad ideas out of the gate. Hiragana renamed and took care of their origins as blue in Hinata and snf insist to remember what represented Hiragana in W-keya no Uta because the joyful dance pop sound lives on in Hinatazaka (Hinata's group song) and Kanji's sentimental sound lives on in Sakurazaka no Uta. They are now separated rather than unified as one which was the message of W-keya no Uta to have different style of sounds. Two sides of the coin was W-keya no Uta.

And if snf was sleeping on Kanji's second color when Hiragana was pushed a lot for blue then Kanji combined with red which should have been their evolution being transferred to Sakurazaka.

System doesn't matter if the group lacks an identity which has been the problem for jp fandom.

All three singles have not been clear because there is still no change from snf regarded the group's identity. It's still "can dye in any color" until snf say something.

 

I realize I forgot the Billboard Japan (Soundscan) first-week sales numbers.

Billboard Japan Week 1: 407,334

https://www.billboard-japan.com/d_news/detail/105004/2

Oricon Week 1: 375,970

https://www.oricon.co.jp/rank/js/w/2021-10-25/

Spoiler: Off-topic

[hide]This is why I don't like Oricon rounding its weekly numbers at all.[/hide]

 

Kanji was special, since it had a strong and different identity from the start, based on Silent Majority and Hirate.

S&F has been unable to maintain that rebellious identity without Techi (and others) and has just tried to keep it going with fast and chaotic dancing and some darkness. And Sakura has no-one like Techi to focus around -- although I think Hii-chan has a special strength that S&F have not properly capitalized on (and I personally think that Karin has something special they have not found a way to develop and present, but that's just me).

Another problem may be that the general idol fandom likes the more traditional idol-like style of Hinata. That style doesn't appeal to me so much, but I give Hinata a lot of credit for taking it on and making it work.

Sakurazaka is spinning its wheels...but spinning your wheels with double platinum releases is not bad. I do want them to find a unique style that appeals to enough fans to make them a bigger success. And maybe a current or new member has to break through into the public mind. An outstanding song would help.

 

Quick HS Update for the 11th and 12th round (courtesy of saku central!)
https://twitter.com/sakuzakacentral/status/1455472700588056576/photo/2

Updates in text format

Akanen 8/36 > 19/36
Aoi 10/36 > 13/36
Akiho 8/36 > 9/36
Uemu 5/36 > 6/36
Fuuchan 2/36 > 3/36

Everyone else has remained the same since round 9. You can only apply for the last weekend dates (nov 27-28) so this may be the last update with significant change for the single