2016 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Contrary to majority opinion, I rarely pay attention to whoever get 1-16th, or progress of their oshi.
But at least, DON'T BLOCK THE SENBATSU SPEECHES WITH ADS, DAMMIT!

Instead, I hope several new name to appear and shake up the constellation and status-quo:

NGT48
-Kato Minami (Best probability to get casuals vote. High chance of power-vote based on insider source)
-Ogino Yuka (personal bias)
-Yamaguchi Maho(Alongside many other NGT girls has a growing fandom, but not organized or huge enough to ensure SSK rank on their own)

HKT48
-Yabuki Nako
-Tanaka Miku (Alongside Nako, is a favorite 3rd gen among HKT fans. Their breakthrough is uncertain, but expected to happen)
-Akiyoshi Yuka
-Shimono Yuki
-Tomiyoshi Asuka (personal bias)
-Komada Hiroka (All those 4 are scratching 1st day result last year, so it's a matter of getting bigger fanbase or power-vote favor for this year)

NMB48
-Suto Ririka (personal bias)
-Ota Yuuri (Both are NMB48 flavor of the year. It will be their fanbase test to prove how big the rising star they are)
-Okita Ayaka (Actually has big fanbase, comparable with most NMB senbatsu member fanbase. Was on 1st day result last year as testament)

SKE48
-Hidaka Yuzuki
-Ego Yuna
-Sakai Mei
-Takeuchi Saki (All 4 were included in last year 1st day result. Since many of SKE girls are finally get ranked, I guess it's their turn to get hako-oshi favor this year, alongside many 7d2 member, like Goto Rara, Obata Yuna, etc.)

AKB48
-Okada Ayaka
-Komiyama Haruka
-Fukuoka Seina
-Kojima Natsuki (All 4 are basically included in last year 1st day result. However, unlike SKE, I can't say their chance are high. There are many AKB new-gen whom has better chance, afterall.)

Was intended to add some personal note regarding fans general view and their vote tendency for each group during SSK times. But it will obviously be tl:dr. So, I'll refrain for now.

 

Hopes:
Most Team 4 rank high. Esp Naachan and Kojimako entering senbatsu
Naachan centers UG and surpassing Kojimako by a rank (friendly-rivalry. nothing bitter, ok?)
Karen participates
Miki and Komiharu rank
Myao's return. HA!

Dreams:
1. Yukirin (Please, please, please. Just give the girl that rank already)
2. Sasshi (if she's participating. Tbh it's boring seeing her on top (again). Her win is almost obvious due to rich wotas. Give some excitement please?)
3. Mayuyu (Well... can't think of other spot. Maybe she can go #2 because of revenge)
4. Jurina (She's there, she's there)
5. Sayanee (Eh... do I need to say it?)
6. Paruru (Come back!)
7. Yuihan (Hoping that Soukantoku title helps to boost her popularity)
8. Miyawaki (Not gonna deny it. She'll make it, even higher if I'm being more honest)
9. Kitarie (yup, definitely wanting to see this)
10. Renachhi or Annin (if she's participating)
11. Milky
12. Dasu
13. Tomu (You go, girl!)
14. Haruppi
15. Kojimako (If Naachan enters, most likely she will too. Strong rival this one here)
16. Naachan (A girl can dream, right? Who knows what wonders will come from this. Hopefully Takamina's article about her does some magic)

 

Sasshi isn't winning just because of rich wota though. She probably has largest share of casual fans and at the same time, largest share of hardcore wotas.


Hopes:
1. Kitarie Kami7 (This might sounds impossible, but pls )
2. Miichan Senbatsu
3. Naachan senbatsu too

Prediction:
-Tomu drops out of senbatsu
-Suda Akari making come back into senbatsu

-Paruru Kami7 (EDITED RESP: her intl fans seems so worked up abt this so yeah...Paruru will probably outrank sakura. )

-Sakura kami7
EDITED RESPONSE: it will be guaranteed for Sakura to be in kami7 since sae is gone. if sae is not gone, imho/ in my prediction, since I predict Paruru fan will be very hardcore this year, Paruru will outrank Sakura, thus she might be replaced by sae.

- Kojimako is beaten by Okada Nana

Prediction:
1. Sasshi/Yukirin
2. Sasshi/Yukirin
3. Jurina
4. Mayu
5. Sayanee
6. Paruru
7. Sakura
#3-#4 are interchangeable
as well as #6-#7
8. Kitarie (if Kojiharu is participating, she is going to be at #8 or #9)
9. Milky
10. Yuihan
11. Kaotan
12. Shibata Aya
13. Churi
13. Haruppi
14. Suda Akari
#15 - #16 are so difficult , the candidate for either of the place are:
Takahashi Juri/ Okada Nana/ Miichan / Oya Masana / Kojimako / ObaMina

 

Sakura's already in kami 7.

 

What souchan48 means is she will enter Kami7 again

 

lol。

yea, just like Nura said. I meant she will still be (aka remain) in kami7 . I didn't say Sakura will "finally enter" or even slightly 'ambigous' statement , like "join" kami7.

i wonder why dasu drops senbatsu thou. her votes also decreased sharply. I meant, she doesn't have scandal or smt rite?

 

Still...

"Will enter" does sound a bit weird. Especially with your comment about Sae, like it was a problem for Sakura to jump over Sae last year lol
Unless you meant Paruru, it makes no sense.

 

what i meant is that it will be guaranteed for her to be in kami7 since sae is gone. if sae is not gone, imho/ in my prediction, since I predict Paruru fan will be very hardcore this year, Paruru will outrank Sakura, thus she might be replaced by sae. That's what I meant…

I will edit my post as not to confuse others. Edited my response

 

Sakura's fanbase is rapidly growing so I don't think Paruru can outrank her. Lols. She does even also an international fans who are just quiet. Plus, she's selling too much.

 

1. Kashiwagi Yuki
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Yamamoto Sayaka
4. Watanabe Mayu
5. Miyawaki Sakura
6. Matsui Jurina
7. Shimazaki Haruka
8. Kojima Haruna
9. Yokoyama Yui
10. Watanabe Miyuki
11. Kitahara Rie
12. Matsumura Kaori
13. Suda Akari
    
14. Kodama Haruka
15. Shibata Aya
16. Iriyama Anna

17 - 20. Tomu, Masanya, Mio, Tani

OUT: Takahashi Minami, Miyazawa Sae
Assumed not participating: Takayanagi Akane

Spoiler

1 - 2. I think Yukirin might make it this time, and also I expect Sasshi's vote count of 194k to drop, as with what happened in the 6th election. I don't believe that anyone will be able to take the top spot consecutively until I see it happen for myself. Furthermore, Sasshi had a wider vote gap in the 5th election but look what happened.

3 - 4. On the back of 365nichi and consistently excellent handshake sales I expect Sayanee to make a breakthrough in at least top 4 if not top 3. Mayu in my opinion is on a downward spiral and her slightly increased vote count from last year was just a successful attempt by her fans to not lose too much ground.

5 - 6. Jurina, Sakura and Sayanee are wildcards. As the best handshakers sellers and all 3 of them receiving specific pushes over the past year, which could translate to more votes. Would not be surprised if both Jurina and Sakura break past top 5, displacing another girl from above.

7 - 12. Senbatsu staples who should not gain or lose too much ground. Milky might place lower but I don't expect any surprises from this group.

13 - 14. Breakthrough/ Revenge group. Failed to place last year and coincidentally there are at least 2 free spots in Senbatsu and I expect them to be filled by this pair.

15. Aya's fans have just done enough to keep her within the Senbatsu walls and it might be that she's peaked. However would not be surprised if she falls out of Senbatsu, if a new-gen undergirl rises (Mio, Yuria, Tani, Nao) or if Masanya is pushed by hako-oshis.

16. Frankly I'm not confident of Annin at 16 but I don't quite see any of the undergirls listed above making the Senbatsu breakthrough yet, or Tomu holding on to the last spot. Her last rank was 20 which puts her in a good position but her lack of handshakes and interactions with fans might cost her so we shall see. However she's gotten massive pushes within Senbatsu especially post-Ricchan grad so if she doesn't end up placing in Senbatsu or close it's time for management to drop the push imo.

 

I'm guessing this counts in "hopes"? Cause that's one wild prediction.

 

I really whish for miichan to participate!! i do want her to come back in senbatsu again!!

 

tbh i can see this hapening, Sae won't be there, Yui/Rie/Milky reach their top (IMO), paruru won't back to Kami 7 (she wasn't active like others this year)
Last year in 1st day results Haruppi was above Sakura, i think fans want to make SakuRuppi like Wmatsui (sort of), and if Sasshi won't joing this year this can definitely come true

 

Sae and Tkmn leaving means that Paruru automatically is in Kami 7 this year. Who of the remaining girls behind her are capable of reaching higher than her this year? The only ones who could possibly beat her score is Milky and Kaotan and even then I don't think they could beat her score at this point in time.

 

I can't though. Last year despite strong management push, fan support, voting campaigns and all, she failed to break Senbatsu and only increased 10k votes. Considering that there were 4 open spots in Senbatsu, her "progress" from 21 to 17 is merely moving up the ranks. She hasn't really surpassed anyone. She's rank 15 in Senbatsu by default at the moment and I don't see her any higher than that, maybe 1 or 2 spots at most.

 

i honestly cannot see anyone beating Paruru for that last Kami7 spot tbh. She'll probably reached 90k but Sakura and Sayanee will probably reach 100k

 

1. Sashihara Rino (HKT48)
2. Kashiwagi Yuki (AKB48/NGT48)
3. Matsui Jurina (SKE48)
4. Yamamoto Sayaka (NMB48/AKB48)
5. Watanabe Mayu (AKB48)
6. Miyawaki Sakura (HKT48/AKB48)
7. Shimazaki Haruka (AKB48)
8. Yokohama Yui (AKB48)
9. Kitahara Rie (NGT48)
10. Watanabe Miyuki (NMB48)
11. Suda Akari (SKE48)
12. Matsumura Kaori (SKE48)
13. Shibata Aya (SKE48)
14. Kodama Haruka (HKT48/AKB48)
15. Iriyama Anna (AKB48)
16. Oya Masana (SKE48)

 

Also, the amount of spots for her to enter senbatsu by default opened up by graduation/non-participation last year and she still didn't. This time she'll definitely be in though, I think 12-14, if not higher.

It's still super early for me to make a prediction that could hold any weight but just for fun I'll throw out generalizations:

- I kinda fear a few SKE members dropping due to general lack of exposure thus far (well, the movie tie-up for 19th could be the start of a turnaround).

Spoiler

Ofc all being well, the fans will keep supporting, but less content means fans get bored and lose attachment + overall less casual/GP exposure is never a good thing. It could all end up fine though since they are squarely in a transitional phase, SKE can do this easily as they have a very high turnover compared to the other groups. I think by the 2016 fall single, senbatsu will be very different. Except for J centering everything ofc.

That said, I think the SKE members that will rise (roughly in this order) are:

-Nao: she stood out a lot in 2015 basically as a "low-key" ace; I think since she already has the solid fan support they dont give her a mega push that would disturb much, therefore she's kept the underdog/hipster appeal that brings in much ¥¥¥¥

-Sally: hs monster, super entertaining in shows, fan service queen- dasu oshis shamelessly oshihenning. Not much else to say.

-Kuma: She's basically the definition of what SKE wotas like and theyre just now going full force with her push; easily Next Girls

-Rion: I think she's come into her own a lot personality-wise (in the same boat as Chikako and Anmi, my Miyazawa S babies ; ; ) which is really all she needs to get that extra edge to make ppl support her more. She and Nao are easily the most musically gifted in 48g, if they can't rise, I've lost faith in everything /melodrama

Ryoha: She has improved and matured a lot, mgm has decided to keep her in their thoughts, and she's even gotten prettier. Will have to wait and see how fans respond I guess

Likely first time ranks:

Sugawara Maya (jump on this hype train before it's too late. entertaining, pretty, pushed draft member; must rank)

Nojima Kano (wotas and their insatiable lust for struggle narrative)

Obata Yuna

Goto Rara

Hopes:
Anmi, Harutam, and Maimai keep their ranks

Chikako, Naruchan and Yuzuki rank!

As long as this is, it isn't exhaustive, and there are many other members who will place wherever. These are just the ones on my mind.

On to the senbatsu prediction; the big leagues. The girls who no one is saying "who" when they are called (like me @ basically every HKT and NMB member who ranked last year :X )

1. Sashihara Rino
2. Kashiwagi Yuki
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Watanabe Mayu
5. Yamamoto Sayaka
6. Miyawaki Sakura
7. Shimazaki Haruka

8-10
Yui, Rie, Milky

11-16
Aya, Haruppi, Kaotan, Dasu, Miru, Naachan

I know Miru is bold to predict since she's not even UG yet and NMB fans are more casual, but I kinda think she'll center or cocenter a single between now and then

Annin is a question mark for me, but if she participates I think UG or lower senbatsu is possible.

AKB member hopes:
Miion in the front of UG
Sayaya ranks (she ranked in last year's prelim)
Tano doesn't drop
Shimada ranks

 

You're right, Yui/Milky/Rie reached their top, but that top is still too high for Haruppi.......even Sayanee & Sakura landed in the middle first b4 going Kami7

 

Goodness, is this true?