1. Check the 2023 Stage48 Member Ranking Results, how did your Oshimen rank this year?

2016 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Discussion in 'General AKB48 Discussion' started by oscar6262, Dec 11, 2015.

  1. x_AozoraKataomoi_x

    x_AozoraKataomoi_x Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2014
    Location:
    Philippines
    Oshimen:
    takeisara
    Twitter:
    X2783
    Tbh, Yukirin's chances of winning SSK this year is decreased because her fans will lose money as they are spent on the tour.
     
  2. fatrain

    fatrain Under Girls

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2014
    I think the assumption that SSK votes are affected by other spending hold no water and proved to be wrong several times already. but announcing graduation before SSK can indeed boost the votes.
    for example, in 2015 HKT had a 5th single release and 2 weeks of HKT48 Sashihara Rino Zachou Kouen at Meijiza before SSK and various Zenkoku Tour concerts before and after SSK. despite that, Meijiza and concerts were sold out, HKT beat their own record of single sales AND SSK votes/rankers AND Sasshi got the highest vote count in history.
    and Takamina got her boost because of graduation announcement.

    people just don't spend every single penny they have on SSK, so they can't afford anything else. everyone have a psychological and financial barrier about how much they can spend on SSK. for some it's 1% of their income/savings, for some it's 10%, but I'm pretty sure everyone still leave a lot of funds for a living and buying other stuff.

    was she? I thought she was a lot closer to 3rd place than 1st. no offence, no hate, but this just sounded wrong.
     
  3. fukasaku

    fukasaku Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2015
    Prediction (or hope lol) :
    1. Sasshi
    2. Yukirin
    3. Mayu
    4. Sayanee
    5. Jurina
    6. Sakura
    7. Paruru
    8. Yui
    9. Kitarie
    10. Tomu
    11. Haruppi
    12. Dasu
    13. Aya
    14. Naachan
    15. Mako
    16. Mio
     
  4. KamonegiX

    KamonegiX Upcoming Girls

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2016
    Oshimen:
    watanabemayu
    I hope it's like this:
    1. Watanabe Mayu
    2. Kashiwagi Yuki
    3. Yamamoto Sayaka
    4. Sashihara Rino
    5. Matsui Jurina
    6. Shimazaki Haruka
    7. Miyawaki Sakura
    8. Shibata Aya
    9. Yokoyama Yui
    10. Kitahara Rie
    11. Kodama Haruka
    12. Suda Akari
    13. Shiroma Miru
    14. Kojima Mako
    15. Muto Tomu
    16. Takahashi Juri
    But out of all things I hope Lemon doesn't fall off because last year she was 79 and I hope Nishino Miki ranks...

    I would also like Myao to rank.

    I never thought I will see Juice=Juice here :^O^:
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2016
  5. Mayura48

    Mayura48 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2014
    Oshimen:
    watanabemayu
    Twitter:
    val_vanny
    But the HKT release and etc was more than a month earlier before ssk u,u

    or wanna try to release at the same time when ssk votes was held ? or maybe a week after the ssk single released ? thats what mayu do tbh

    well, i'm oppose of this idea. I just want to say that if they have a release near or in the midle of ssk times, i believe more or less it will affected their votes.

    if mayu didnt release anything this time, and her votes is rising. then thats the proof for you^^
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2016
  6. Nory

    Nory Member

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2014
    Oshimen:
    Tsuzuki Rika
    Twitter:
    Kami_oshi_SKE48
    Neah, no offence nor hate received but I'd like to point out this:
    In 2014 ssk Sasshi had 141k votes and in 2015 ssk she won with 194K votes
    In 2014 ssk Mayuyu had 159k votes and in 2015 ssk had 165k votes
    In 2014 ssk Yukirin had 104k votes and in 2015 ssk had 167k votes

    Yukirin had the biggest rise if you count the votes so....the idea of Yukirin winning this ssk is not totally ridiculous, am I right ?

    No offence, no hate :awesome:
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. CutePanda

    CutePanda Next Girls

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2015
    if the management dont pull a Nogi46 kennin for this sousenkyo (Maiyan, Nanase, Ikuchan...), here is my kami7 prediction :

    1) Sasshi
    2) Mayuyu
    3) Yukirin
    4) Jurina
    5) Sayanee
    6) Sakura
    7) Paruru
     
  8. ABF48

    ABF48 Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2015
    1. the top three will still same imo, boring. i think this is the right time for jurina or sayanee to bring one of them down.
    2. sakura paruru fight. i think this is the highlight of this year.
    3. i have feeling annin will be in senbatsu if she participates, i just can feel that.
    4. Yuihan rise her rank
    5. Akarin back to senbatsu.
    6. Nao will be in !!!! i hope !!
     
  9. x_AozoraKataomoi_x

    x_AozoraKataomoi_x Member

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2014
    Location:
    Philippines
    Oshimen:
    takeisara
    Twitter:
    X2783
    I have one more thing, if Korean fans, Jurina's fans usually, make a fundraising to collect money and buy votes and be as good as the Chinese were, then Jurina has a chance to be Top 3, as Jurina is more popular there.
     
  10. Husky

    Husky Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2015
    Location:
    Poland
    Oshimen:
    gotomoe
    Me as well, I guess the top three won't change, but here is what I would like to see:

    1. Mayuyu
    2. Sasshi
    3. Sayanee
    4. Yukirin
    5. Paruru
    6. Sakura
    7. Kitarie
    8. Jurina
    9. Yui
    10. Haruppi
    11. Mio/Meru
    12. Renacchi
    13. Tomu
    14. Miion/Mako
    15. Milky
    16. Mikichan (it's unreal though)
     
  11. CutePanda

    CutePanda Next Girls

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2015
    wow miki at 16th :1st: if that happen, it will really shock the world
     
  12. Nagatsuki Nura

    Nagatsuki Nura Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2014
    Location:
    Brunei
    Oshimen:
    takahashiminami
    That will be the most memorable ssk moment. From unranked to senbatsu

    Sent from my GT-I9105P using Tapatalk
     
  13. CutePanda

    CutePanda Next Girls

    Joined:
    Apr 11, 2015
    well Ikoma did it in 2014....so it can be done but its extremely difficult
     
  14. Husky

    Husky Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2015
    Location:
    Poland
    Oshimen:
    gotomoe
    well, that's why I wrote it is just my unrealistic dream:cute: As for prediction, I think that 16 might be Okada Nana -> she improved her rank last year and appeared in media a lot
     
  15. Nagatsuki Nura

    Nagatsuki Nura Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2014
    Location:
    Brunei
    Oshimen:
    takahashiminami
    Amen for Naachan to enter senbatsu. Last year she jumped like 22 places right?

    Sent from my GT-I9105P using Tapatalk
     
  16. Millyna

    Millyna Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jul 5, 2015
    Oshimen:
    okadanana
    Let her jump this year exact the same amount of places and I'm happy.


    I'd tbh really want Yukirin to win the SSK (and not get KFC 4.0 but a single which fits her~) .
    I don't want Sasshi to win because I want it to let it "stay" impossible to win the SSK twice in a row.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  17. Trinu

    Trinu Under Girls

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2010
    Location:
    Earth-616
    Because she was the only Nogizaka member to participate due to her kennin.

    I think I remember a debate around here where people said that it was getting just as hard to rank into UG as it is to rank in senbatsu.
    Many girls peak in UG and then stay there (look at Yuria) or they go back down again because there are other girls rising.

    At this point, I don't see the senbatsu changing much except for Haruppi and Dasu coming in.

    As for how it will look... I don't trust my insticts anymore after these years, but I'D LIKE TO SEE:

    1. Sasshi
    2. Jurina
    3. Sayanee
    4. Mayu
    5. Yukirin
    6. Sakura
    7. Paruru
    8. Kitarie
    9. Yui
    10. Milky
    11. Haruppi
    12. Muto
    13. Mio
    14. Tani
    15. Nao
    16. Juri / Kojimako / Naachan / Renacchi

    I wouldn't be surprised if @rka was right and the 46G also joined. Although the logistics would be... weird?

    Would they still sell the ballot in the AKB single? Nice way to pump it over 2 millions.
    Would it still be labelled as an AKB event? Maybe call it NogizakaAKB like they're unit in KwM?
    If most of senbatsu is part of Nogizaka would it still be called an AKB48 single when it came out?
     
  18. fatrain

    fatrain Under Girls

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2014
    majority of Yukirin concerts will be more or less at the same time as HKT's single release and Meijiza, a couple of HKT's concerts were at approximately the same time as her last concerts. so there is really not much difference, yet it didn't affect HKT in any way and neither it will affect Yukirin.
    and Mayu's votes also increased in 2015 SSK, so, on the contrary, it proves once again that additional spending doesn't affect SSK votes. (yeah, you can argue that if not her single, her votes would probably increase even more, but that's just assumption and facts state that it just doesn't work this way. if we're going assume that, then what's stopping us from assuming that if not all those HKT releases, then half of HKT members would be in senbatsu and Sasshi would probably get 300k+ votes?.. ))

    =======

    ah, you meant the increase of votes?.. I can kind of see your point now, but it still seems far-fetched to me. it doesn't really matter how much Yukirin's votes increase if other member's votes increase too at about the same pace. Sasshi and Yukirin had ~35k votes difference in 2014 and ~30k in 2015. looks more of statistical error to me))

    let me explain in more details how I see SSK, what are my predictions and why I don't think that additional expenses affect votes.
    my guess is that determination and motivation of fans is more important than money. and this motivation they get from their faves. that's why graduation announcement or member's declaration of a wish to become 1st has a visible impact on vote amount and close to SSK releases don't have an impact. of course, the amount of fans or/and money they have is also important, it's not like fans can all of a sudden spend infinitely more money than they have, but as I said earlier, each fan has a psychological and financial barrier, an amount of money he/she is willing and can spend on votes. this amount is already determined beforehand (most of the time long before the voting period) with other expanses in mind and isn't affected by them. the only thing that can force fans to step over this barrier, to go an extra mile and spend more, is their oshimen's call for action.

    I think all top 3 members have (had?) an approximately the same amount of "potential voting power". an 150k realm (+-15k)) if top 3 fans go all out and vote as usual for the win they can collect ~150k votes. Sasshi in 2013, Mayu in 2014, Mayu and Yukirin in 2015. that extra boost Sasshi got in 2015 was because her fans were very upset and frustrated when they became overconfident in 2014, started voting for other HKT members, lost a lot of votes and thus lost the 1st place. I think 2015 is very indicative of top 3 potential voting power, because all three camps went all out that year. Yukirin declared her desire to win for the first time, so her fans finally went all out and reached that 150k realm, Mayu stayed at about the same level because her fans were already maxed out from previous year and were going for the consecutive win and Sasshi's fans just went a little overboard in berserk mode))

    so, long story short, my prediction would be that the votes of Yukirin and Mayu would probably stay at about the same level of +-150k. unless one of them (or both) announce graduation and this will boost their votes. Sasshi is a bit of a wild card here (as usual)). once again, it all depends on determination and motivation of fans and on whether or not her 2015 boost was caused by "berserk mode" or she once again increased her fanbase. if it was former, then her votes could drop to a normal 150k again or stay at the same level (or even increase slightly till 200k) if fans will be very determined to get the first consecutive win. if it was the latter, then it could be expected that her votes won't go down and likely to even increase. in both cases it's more likely that she'll stay in the 200k realm and will be unreachable.

    as for other kami 7 predictions... I guess the most interesting part is to see how high will Sakura rise. she is probably the only member in kami 7 who is in her "growth period" therefore her fanbase and votes could grow very rapidly. she will probably be the first to take the crown when the current Big 3 graduate. I'd say she has a good chance of breaking 100k and going as high as 4th place this year. Jurina and Sayanee are strong contenders, but just like top 3 they are veterans already and have probably reached their fanbase capacity (meaning that their fanbases grow much slower than of such fresh rising stars as Sakura).

    so my prediction of kami 7:

    1) Sasshi
    2) Yukirin (if she announces graduation. if not, then Mayu is 2nd and Yukirin is 3rd)
    3) Mayuyu
    4) Sakura
    5) Jurina
    6) Sayanee
    7) Paruru

    Haruppi is definitely in Senbatsu, preferably in top 10))
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2016
  19. trxsh

    trxsh Member

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2014
    Location:
    Canada
    About predicting or hoping someone can go from unranked to UG or senbatsu, Tani is the only other person to do that and at the time I think she was one of 48g's strongest young members (so funny to say that now that she has wavered like hell along with most SKE members)- she had Rena's endorsement, was Aki-P's oshi flavour of the month, got into Dasu and Kaotan's subunit like the day after her transfer lol, and was a big star of a lot of the shows that came out in 2014, all while being in a group famous for rlly thick wotas.

    Sasshi will definitely win, though I would prefer a Yukirin win. I think (and last year I thought it too) the highest Mayu can get is third.
    I'm kind of toying with the thought that Sakura could beat Jurina, yikes. Prr is automatically in kami7, I don't expect anyone to surpass her.

    Someone predicted Ryoha and Katomina in UG but I think that's a stretch, Ryoha is a bit steadier in her growth and in Katomina's case, for first time rankers in general I think it's really about how organized an hardcore your fanbase is and as much as people here and there complain about her push, she hasn't actually been very visible at all except people who have been following NGT from the very beginning. Ranking in on your first try in general is really impressive!

    OK gonna quote my last thing that I had fun writing to see what I can add:
    (Preditctions)
    - Milky sits out, Miru gets dat endorsement
    - Churi sits out
    - Team 8 members rank, but not as highly as their wotas think they will. As usual
    - HKT members rise since I think HKT is on their peak

    I definitely can't make a proper prediction until I know who is participating. I think people doing well in HS like Naachan and Miru have a shot at senbatsu but it's hard to know imo because a lot of people with good results sell well because a lot of ppl who are not rlly their wotas go to HS because they're good at hs.
     
  20. chronosis

    chronosis Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2015
    Oshimen:
    ikutaerika
    My Prediction
    1. Sashi
    2. Mayuyu
    3. Sayanee
    4. Yukirin
    5. Jurina
    6. Sakura
    7. Paruru
    8. Kitarie
    9. Yui
    10. Aya
    11. Milky
    12. Haruppi
    13. Kaotan
    14. Tomu
    15.Dasu
    16. Mio
     

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