2017 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Yeah, I also predicted that Yuiyui and Rika will be this year's Komi/Aapon/Saki. They've been one of the all sold out members for two singles, right?

Any prediction for highest drop? (it's a flamebait territory tho, maybe we should not ) Last year's Tano was so out of the blue.

 

^ Mh, I think Komi might stay pretty much at the same place, I don't know about Saki but yeah I'm really scared for Aapon

 

Honestly want it do be somebody you'd least suspect, But I do think YuiYui might be the one (girl has been on fire this year so far).

YuiYui has, Rika I don't think. Honestly think her sales have been struggling a little bit (Her last 2 haven't really been that great, and it took her a long while to sell all her slots for the 1st Single (NGT). I mean yeah, she sold out this single, but that was after OgiYuka, Katomina, Hinatan did. I think her popularity has come down to earth a little (I still do think she ranks in the Next Girls).

Biggest Drop: Tani or Madoka.

 

I'd be very surprised if any STU48 would rank anywhere (besides Naachan and Sasshi, of course). I wouldn't even know anyone that has a chance there but it'd be interesting

 

A little over two weeks ago I wrote some hopes but I put together a senbatsu that's not a real prediction but more like... full of hope while keeping my feet on the ground? or something. so nothing like my kamioshi, who has been a member for less than two months, ranking in kami7 lmao

1. Matsui Jurina
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Miyawaki Sakura
5. Okada Nana
6. Mukaichi Mion
7. Yokoyama Yui
8. Kitahara Rie
9. Suda Akari
10. Takahashi Juri
11. Kojima Mako
12. Shiroma Miru
13. Kato Rena
14. Kuranoo Narumi
15. Yabuki Nako
16. Okita Ayaka

 

There's never been a year where the top 3 has been the same as the previous one, so I don't think we'll have another 1-Sashi 2-Mayu 3-Jurina

So here's my prediction

01- Sashihara Rino
02- Matsui Jurina
03- Watanabe Mayu
04- Miyawaki Sakura
05- Okada Nana
06- Suda Akari
07- Mukaichi Mion
08- Yokoyama Yui
09- Matsumura Kaori
10- Takayanagi Akane
11- Takahashi Juri
12- Kojima Mako
13- Minegishi Minami
14- Shiroma Miru
15- Kitahara Rie
16- Tomonaga Mio

 

OK now that we're a little closer....
1. Sashihara Rino
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Miyawaki Sakura
^like others have said, pretty sure there's not a lot of movement here.
5. Suda Akari
6. Okada Nana
7. Mukaichi Mion
8. Shiroma Miru
9. Yokoyama Yui
10. Takayanagi Akane
11. Takahashi Juri
12. Minegishi Minami
13. Kojima Mako
14. Kitahara Rie
15. Komiyama Haruka
16. Yabuki Nako

For UG, I can definitely see Mio, Kaori, or Renacchi as the center. Naru I think is going up, and like others have said, I think the big UG debuts are Rika-hime and Yuiyui. I hope Meru ends up back in UG, though I'm unsure it can happen. Mikurin also. I can see Matsuoka Hana in NG or FG, but not UG - I think she'll go over like a Nagisa/Ryoha, where she'll do OK but not like...great. I really hope Rara and TII members beyond just Hana rank (Mirun or Emiri or Sae maybe?). And I'm for sure looking forward to seeing which NGT48 members rank in this year!

 

Another prediction list because I didn't put my other one in order and it was before the application process

1. Sashihara Rino (honestly, I just hope that Sasshi fans are not too overly confident that Sasshi will win and let Mayu take the lead)
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Miyawaki Sakura (Hate to admit it but Sakura has a chance)
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Mukaichi Mion (Would love to see Naachan here but let's be honest, I have a feeling that Miion will always surpass Naachan in terms of rank)
6. Suda Akari (If Dasu/SKE fans continue to push her, I wouldn't be surprised if she rise in rank)
7. Okada Nana (Could be swapped with Dasu but Nana ranking 7 in 2017 would be littt)
8. Yokoyama Yui (If our soukantoku doesn't rise with the opt outs of 5 girls in front of her, then I don't know what to say)
9. Takahashi Juri
10. Kitahara Rie (Might lose some NGT votes this year but again, if Kitarie doesn't rank up, I don't know what to say)
11. Matsumura Kaori (We shouldn't underestimate Kaotan fans lol. She had a constant rise of ranks in her participating years and her 2015 votes can land her #12 last year)
12. Shiroma Miru (I don't know where I would put Mirurun but I'm pretty sure she'll rank in Senbatsu. If Sayanee fans could give her a push, somewhere above 14 would be secured)
13. Kojima Mako (Our Tentoumu Chu center kicks in)
14. Takayanagi Akane (Churi lost over 20K votes so I want her fans to vote her back into Senbatsu)
15. Minegishi Minami (Just let this girl rank into Senbatsu one last time and leave)
16. Tomonaga Mio / Furuhata Nao (Both are excellent candidates but I don't follow them that close so I'm not sure) / Komiyama Haruka (If she use her crying tactic again)

I refuse to put Yuiyui in Senbatsu lol. I doubt that she'll make it anyways. We saw that Kitarie is not very good with handshakes yet she ranks in Senbatsu so maybe we'll see vice versa.

I didn't put Renacchi either because I have a feeling that she's going to drop like Yuria or rise just a teeny tiny bit. Not hating. Just a feeling lol.

 

Not really a fan of Komi but she got momentum from consecutive senbatsu (she even got media spot for Negamochi), she's probably gonna do well. I think Aapon is most likely to drop due to how hyped her story was last year. She did nice this year, but a little stagnant and we all know how NMB fans work . Saki will most likely drop too, but not as bad as Aapon might do.

Oh yeah, I just realized that her first sold out this single were mostly empty sales, and it was OgiYuka who sold out all of the slots first, but then Kitarie never sold more than 10 slots but there she was. I also think NGT might do well this year considering they had 3-4 members on the 81-100 bracket last year, the fact that there are many empty spots and with their sales this year.

Would be quite tragic for these two if they actually drop out lol, like 1-2 years ago you were the hot girls in the respective group only to be in UCG or Unranked this year.

 

Wow... So many think Mirurun will make senbatsu. Kind of doubt it.

1. Watanabe Mayu
2. Sashihara Rino
3. Miyawaki Sakura
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Mukaichi Mion
6. Okada Nana
7. Suda Akari
8. Matsumura Kaori
9. Yokoyama Yui
10. Kitahara Rie
11. Kato Rena
12. Takahashi Juri
13. Kojima Mako
14. Minegishi Minami
15. Tomonaha Mio
16. Komiyama Haruka

1. Oba Mina
2. Takayanagi Akane
3. Oya Masana
4. Shiroma Miru
5. Kawamoto Saya
6. Yabuki Nako
7. Furuhata Nao
8. Souda Sarina
9. Nakai Rika
10. Takeuchi Saki
11. Kuranoo Narumi
12. Ego Yuna
13. Sutou Ririka
14. Tashima Meru
15. Tanaka Miku
16. Kato Minami

 

1. Sashihara Rino - I'd prefer for her not to win for the sake of variety, but I assume she will. I may revise this when the prelims are out, as if she's ahead by a major margin her fans may get comfortable allowing someone else (probably Mayu) to take 1st.
   
2. Watanabe Mayu
   
3. Miyawaki Sakura - I believe the SKE vote will be more spread around this year (unlike last year, focused on Dasu and Jurina) allowing Sakura to beat Jurina
   
4. Matsui Jurina - I may be wrong about the SKE vote as from what I know SKE fans never seem to be very big on Jurina. Maybe her rank last year was actually all of her individual fans' doing and I'm completely wrong, but I believe the hako oshis moved from Rena and co. to Jurina and co. when she graduated.
   
5. Mukaichi Mion
6. Okada Nana
7. Suda Akari - I'm positive her vote count will be down this year (for previously explained reasons), but not enough to kick her out of kami 7. Unlike the majority of people, I'm actually a fan of Dasu and have no problem with her being this high.
   
8. Yokoyama Yui - I have a feeling her vote count won't increase very much (may even decrease), so Yuihan's spot may actually be for someone with more momentum this year (Kojimako, Juri, Mirurun?).
   
9. Matsumura Kaori - A very loyal fanbase, maybe she'll actually be the Dasu of this year and rank in kami 7?
   
10. Kitahara Rie - Her votes have been dropping as they spread out to other NGT members, she may be overtaken by any of the girls I ranked below her.
    
11. Kojima Mako - For the sake of my emotional and mental stability I hope she ranks in senbatsu.
    
12. Shiroma Miru - Maybe all of us are overestimating her... but I believe she'll rank in senbatsu.
    
13. Takahashi Juri
14. Takayanagi Akane - Potentially interchangeable with any SKE member (aside from Jurina) in my prediction and last year's UG.
    
15. Komiyama Haruka - I hope she's not going to fall like Tani, but considering her tactic to get votes last year it's entirely possible.
    
16. Furuhata Nao/Tomonaga Mio/Kato Rena/Minegishi Minami/Souda Sarina - I never know who's going to rank 16th, it's always the hardest spot to predict.

 

I remember reading before that SKE hako oshis have never distributed votes (at least not in bulk) to Rena and Jurina. Hako oshis leave it to their respective fan groups to collect votes.

 

I remember maybe in 2012? reading about how they were organizing to make as many SKE rank, they suggested that Jurina, Rena and Churi would be fine with their own fans, things may have changed but they sure never were hako's priority

 

My 5 cents (no explanation)

1. Sashihara Rino
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Watanabe Mayu
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Suda Akari
6. Okada Nana
7. Yokoyama Yui
8. Mukaichi Mion
9. Matsumura Kaori
10. Shiroma Miru
11. Kojima Mako
12. Kato Rena
13. Kitahara Rie
14. Takahashi Juri
15. Tomonaga Mio
16. Komiyama Haruka

17. Oba Mina
18. Tanaka Miku
19. Souda Sarina
20. Oguri Yui
21. Yamauchi Suzuran
22. Minegishi Minami
23. Yabuki Nako
24. Kuranoo Narumi
25. Takayanagi Akane
26. Motomura Aoi
27. Kawamoto Saya
28. Furuhata Nao
29. Yagura Fuuko
30. Sasaki Yukari
31. Sutou Ririka
32. Iwata Hina

 

Fuuchan isn't apart of the SSK this year.

 

Right...meh doesn't change much of my list lol...anyways NMB is effed

 

I think many are expecting her to rank in senbatsu since she's pretty much NMB's only chance but I just don't know if there are that many people who would actually vote for her and get her there.

Sayanee's fans are not likely to vote for her just because Sayanee is not taking part since I think most Sayanee fans don't care about idols or 48g. Milky fans neither since they mostly left the fandom. Will Fuuchan fans vote for her? IDTS. Reinyan? IDTS either. So where is she going to get all those votes from? NMB hako oshis don't vote a lot either. Is her fandom that strong to push her so high?

She's 17 by default now but I don't think any of those above her will lose votes. There's also Kaotan and Masanya now who are likely above her. The only good sign is that her HS is selling out fast and also hyped as NMB's ace for this election so hopefully the hype translates into reality. I just don't think she's getting the new fans that are necessary to cause a significant change in her number of votes.

Renacchi (my love) is 19 but I think she has a higher chance of growth since she's more likely to be the 2-oshi of many of the non-participants (Paruru, Kojiharu, Annin & Yuria) since they're the same type. She's also getting many outside work. If they start promoting her movie and stuff now, she has a very good chance.

That said, I'll be glad if they both make it but I have more faith in Renacchi making it than Mirurun.

 

Maybe it's just me but I don't see Masanya in Senbatsu. Ever. Senbatsu has always been for girls who are "pushed". It makes you think "ahhh. It does make sense" but Masanya? She was never(?) front row in SKE nor was ever pushed in AKB. While you can argue that Juri isn't front row either, she at least is "new gen". Masanya is a 1st gen so far from new. Like Minarun, I doubt she'll ever rank in Senbatsu. It's sad to put into words. I would like to be proven wrong though

 

Do you think there's a chance for a 16th gen member to rank? Maybe it's too early, but I would like it