2017 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

http://akb48taimuzu.livedoor.biz/archives/51316285.html

According to AKB Shinbun, there was someone who thought Orin out of all people would rank.

 

Updated Senbatsu:
1. Sashihara Rino
2. Watanabe Mayu
3. Miyawaki Sakura
4. Matsui Jurina
5. Okada Nana
6. Mukaichi Mion
7. Matsumura Kaori
8. Shiroma Miru
9. Yokoyama Yui
10. Kitahara Rie
11. Kojima Mako
12. Takahashi Juri
13. Suda Akari
14. Kato Rena
15. Yabuki Nako
16. Takayanagi Akane

Sent from my LG-D852 using Tapatalk

 

I hope a 2nd draft member can rank. If possible Kubo Satone or Nishikawa Rei. They're cuties

 

It'll be Nishikawa Rei's first ever original song.
FITTING FOR AN UPCOMING LEGEND!!!!

 

Well, I'm more into Nogi, but have been following AKB from a certain distance for a while. Anyway, since i work in science and i really enjoy doing numbers of mostly everything, i decided to try to predict SSK from a mathematical point of view. I took the votes from the last 4 ssk's and tried to make mathematical models of each girl to see what happens. In the end i had to include some criteria to finish but i think the results are pretty interesting.

Of course, this are tendencies based on what happened in the last 4 years, i can't predict surprises

1-Sashihara Rino (234540): she will lose some votes, but wins anyway. I think it make sense, because some people voted her last year but won't this time. I was expecting a bigger lose, we'll see what happens.

2-Watanabe Mayu (194000+14480=208480): Mayu's numbers are not growing that much since she won. She will get close to 200k and I think she will get some extra votes because of Yukirin's abscense but not enough to win.

3-Matsui Jurina (126400): her numbers are so linear...

4-Miyawaki Sakura (92326+7351=99677): losing impulse, but also taking some votes from Haruppi. I think she has no chances of going higher.

5-Matsumura Kaori (78885): Is weird, but since she had such an increase in 2015 and i have no numbers from 2016... A limitation from the method...

6-Mukaichi Mion (75796): i think her huge increase in the last year could induce some bias, but anyway this is the result...

7-Okada Nana (68735): she is in an exponential growth. If it doesn't end (and i think it won't, because she had a lot of exposure this year) and thanks to Tomu, Naachan would reach Kami-7.

8-Kitahara Rie (64413) /9-Yokoyama Yui (63571): Yuihan lost votes last year, that's why i predict Rie can surpase her. But the gap is really low.

10_Suda Akari (60724): her numbers are soooo random. So, i chose a model that would imply losing votes but not enough to be lower than 17th position. Because i think after reaching kami-7 she's done, that's the higher i think she can get and her fans won't vote so hard this year.

11-Minegishi Minami (51182): Her numbers are discribing a U. I think she will go higher, but could go lower too...

12-Takahashi Juri (49930): her numbers are exponential, but i think she is close to reach a plateau. It will be very interesting to see what happens with her.

13-Takayanagi Akane (41909): she is very random too, like Dasu. But i think her fans will try really hard to put her back in senbatsu.

14-Oba Mina (41134): Another exponential growth.

15-Souda Sarina (39667): she only ranked twice, so i can't make a good model...

16-Kojima Mako (39461): linear growth, but i think she can become exponential for next year.

17 (or maybe not...)-Shiroma Miru: based on her own number, Mirurun would have 38119, but i think she will get some more because of Sayanee and Fuu not participating. With those extra votes, i think she could reach 13th position.

 

Makes sense since WMatsui always had a big enough fanbase to hold their own in Kami 7 without issues, while the way to guarantee that more SKE girls go up in Senbatsu (and as we have witnessed, only Kami 7, no biggie) is to rally behind them one or two at a time. If you want SKE representation in Sousenkyo and not just #1, that is the way to go. Part of me wishes they'd go for Minarun this year but I'll let SKE hakos surprise me XD I really admire the SKE fanbase a lot.

 

first day results of SSK 2017 video appeal :

Miyawaki sakura SSK appeal youtube view just breach 50 K (well..its an amusing video) , sashihara Rino in 32 K, Watanabe mayu in 17 K . Matsui Jurina in 9 K, Mukaichi mion in 15 K, yokoyama Yui in 14 K, Nana Okada in 5 K

NB: of course some fan base never rely on the number of people in, yet stay as one of the strongest

AKB48 youtube channel with SSK appeal Video : https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxjXU89x6owat9dA8Z-bzdw (restricted in some countries)

 

Honestly, it's such a shame that 48G's YT videos are blocked in some of the most populated countries. If not, some of the numbers will definitely be higher. As far as I know, China and the US are restricted which is also at least half of the foreign fandom.

 

I moved from ASIA to USA some years ago
find two things : the porn no longer restricted, yet all of my beloved AKB videos are restricted in Youtube (-_-)

 

FuuMru is like Ying and Yang, a package but they're opposites. Few are fans of both. Even then, they haven't been promoted as a package in a while so I wouldn't really say that they're a package.

Most Sayanee fans are not Mirurun fans. They are totally different in style! Maybe those who just want to support NMB's top member would go from Sayanee to Mirurun but I doubt there many of those who would vote since NMB fans are lowkey separatist and don't really support AKB things. If anything Sayanee fans will probably vote for Yuuri which is who Sayanee is most vocal about. They're pretty similar too.

 

Senbatsu:
1. Watanabe Mayu (i just want AKB48 win again)
2. Sashihara Rino (although she is my HKT48's favorite member, i don't like to see her winning again, three times in a row)
3. Matsui Jurina (my favorite member from SKE48)
4. Miyawaki Sakura (if Haruppi had competed, i would put her in this place)
6. Yokoyama Yui
7. Okada Nana
8. Kitahara Rie
9. Matsumura Kaori
10. Takahashi Juri
11. Takayanagi Akane
12. Kojima Mako
13. Shiroma Miru (last hope from NMB48)
14. Kato Rena
15. Mukaichi Mion (seriously, last year she is the center of Tsubasa wa Iranai, she just made it because of this, so i don't think she will has a better place this time)
16. Tomonaga Mio/Souda Sarina/Furuhata Nao/Oya Masana
Newly /Re-enter Rank Members
Yamamoto Ayaka
Oguri Yui
Takino Yukiko
Oya Shizuka
Ichikawa Miori
Ogino Yuka
Nakanishi Chiyori
Goto Rara
Matsuoka Hana
Kubo Satone

 

Since we've mention who we think will have the highest debut and the biggest drop, Out of the 80 Girls who ranked last year, Who do you think will make the biggest jump this year?

 

Kato Minami and Sakaguchi Nagisa are biggest bets.

 

Is this "jump" including non ranked to ranked one?
If yes, then part of me want Tano Yuka gets her revenge and snatch Middle UG 27-28th. Last year 10,000 votes loss was almost unforgivable
If it's just among last year's ranked members, I have high hope for NMB's Ota Yuuri. Girl is on fire lately (seriously that front row spot beside Sasshi in Ima Para) would fire her fans up.

 

From Unranked to Ranked I'd say YuiYui. Her hype is still there compared to Rika, who will rank but not as high as people expect.
Highest jump will probably go to Akarin. 10% of her subscribers buying ONE CD puts her at least in UG.
Katomina, Megu or Yuuri are other potential jumps.

Biggest Drop will be one of the girls that went from unranked straight to Undergirls last year. Aapon, Saki or Komi.
Nako and Sayaya actually have the fanbase to support their rank compared to the other 3, imo.

 

My sousenkyo dreams for this year is that the people who are attending it through the organized tour have good seats cuz gosh that was expensive. (kinda jk but not really)



Real hopes:

-Mayu or Jurina victory
-Miichan back in senbatsu
-Kaotan and Churi back in senbatsu
-Either Renacchi or Annin in senbatsu
-Mio in senbatsu
-Naachan kami7
-Sakura top 4 (I guess I'm kind of almost guaranteed that one at least)
-Shiichan rank-in
-Tano rank-in
-Myao rank-in
-Miyupon not too big a drop
-Rikachu rank-in (hey, I can always dream. It happned for Riichan and RumiRumi, maybe I'll get that one too)
-Jochan rank-in (will never happen but I can dream, right?)
-Ogino Yuka surprisingly high.
-Izurina rank-in because of thai fans (who knows!)

 

Annin is not participating

 

-Update-
Senbatsu
1. Sashihara Rino (HKT Team H/STU)
2. Watanabe Mayu (AKB Team B)
3. Matsui Jurina (SKE Team S)
4. Miyawaki Sakura (HKT Team K4/AKB Team A)
5. Suda Akari (SKE Team E)
6. Mukaichi Mion (AKB Team K)
7. Okada Nana (AKB Team 4/STU)
8. Yokoyama Yui (AKB Team A)
9. Matsumura Kaori (SKE Team K2)
10. Shiroma Miru (NMB Team M/AKB Team A)
11. Kojima Mako (AKB Team 4)
12. Takahashi Juri (AKB Team 4)
13. Minegeshi Minami (AKB Team K)
14. Kitahara Rie (NGT Team N3)
15. Tomonaga Mio (HKT Team K4/AKB Team 4)
16. Oya Masana (SKE Team S)
Undergirls
17. Furuhata Nao (SKE Team K2)
18. Komiyama Haruka (AKB Team 4)
19. Kuranoo Narumi (AKB Team 8)
20. Souda Sarina (SKE Team K2)
21. Kato Rena (AKB Team B)
22. Kawamoto Saya (AKB Team 4)
23. Matsuoka Hana (HKT Team T2) (NEW)
24. Okita Ayaka (NMB Team M)
25. Takayanagi Akane (SKE Team K2)
26. Oguri Yui (AKB Team 8) (NEW)
27. Yoshida Akari (NMB Team M)
28. Tashima Meru (HKT Team H)
29. Oba Mina (SKE Team K2)
30. Nakai Rika (NGT Team N3) (NEW)
31. Aramaki Misaki (HKT Team T2) (NEW)
32. Motomura Aoi (HKT Team K4)

 

Takakura Moeka for the biggest jump, and maybe Oba Mina for the biggest drop.

For the winner, I'm hoping for Mayuyu center, but Sasshi is okay tho. Mayuyu will get her center when she'll graduate, but Sasshi maybe won't get one. Being realistic, if Sasshi's fans is as aware as 2015 and 2016 (where Mayu lead the prelim), I think this will be her year, too. And also based on KHK ranking, Sasshi still topped Mayu. It's okay for me if Sasshi gets her third consecutive wins, no ace or veteran could beat that this time around. Making her win the third time will settle the SSK history and we can have a new chapter next year, a fresh start for No. 1 position.

I'm hoping for 2 NMB reps entering senbatsu this year, maybe Mirurun and Akarin or Aapon.

 

Realistically, I'm thinking either Yuuri or Katomina, but it'd be great if Megu and Akarin made gigantic jumps as well.