2018 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Hopes:

1. Matsui jurina for 1st in election
2. Oguri yui to center the next 8 akb48 singles regardless of rank
3. Nozawa Rena rank in
4. Iriyama Anna to bring emerald kodama back from Mexico.

Fin

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The thing is that Ogino Yuka's votes, it seems, come primarily from a single unbelievably rich and generous individual who took over accounts that used to be used to vote for other high ranking members, and while they had their autovoting systems to vote only 10% on day on, this person said "screw it, who cares if I get caught". That gives her 50,000 votes extra on day 1.

50,000 votes is plenty enough to get 1st place on day 1 and rank in overall.

It is a ridiculous investment in her from just one person. But it is questionble if she would have ranked in at all without it. But this investment basically bought her a career. Thanks to the major push she has recieved as a result, her profile has legitimately risen. Because so many fans just bandwagon whomever appears to be hot and popular, and also because the increased exposure she has gotten so that people who wouldn't even know about her discovered her, even without the insane boost, she would still be in undergirls.

On one hand, I kind of respect this guy for disrupting AKB48s general plan of who gets to matter and who gets buried and taking a girl who was never going to get ahead and elevating her. Here we have an example of the company deciding a girl was second row senbatsu and a fan forced the company to make her center. What fan of a nonsenatsu or even noncenter girl hasn't wished they could do that?

On the other hand, unless she is a relative or he is sleeping with her with serious prospects of marrying her once she peaks popularity, it is a bit difficult to respect someone who pays that much to recieve so little.

But, who knows, maybe it is her dad who is doing it.

It is worth noting that the Sashi and Mayu voters seem to have completely vanished into the ether.

Were the majority of those even real people voting or was the whole thing just more taking advantage of and manipulation of the vulnerabilties of the voting system? I find it difficult to believe fans of those two couldn't find anyone else they cared about, so it doesn't seem unreasonable to suspect the later.

Anyway, anyone expecting Ogino's lead to hold simply isn't paying attention to the data.

Granted, my data also said Yokoyama Yui should be doing much better, but I guess I didn't nearly enough account for how many 2014 and 2015 AKB48 fans have since completely turned their back on the group.

 

you didn't account for the whole theory being complete balderdash

 

You think? Nako seems to have received a boost compared to last year. Some of Sasshi's fans might actually be gathering around her this year. She has a legitimate chance to reach Senbatsu.

 

Mayuyu votes might have gone to Yukirin, had she applied. Sasshi fans have nowhere to go, so they could have gone to Nako just as to anyone else. But I guess Nako's increase are probably her own fans trying to beat Miku.

1. Jurina
2. Sakura
3. Ogiyuka
4. Akarin

As much as it hurts me I think Jurina will win. But no way Nana is going to rank as high as lots expect her to. She won't beat Akarin, I can bet on that.

 

Why do so many people NOT want Jurina to win? She's not my all-time all-time favorite but she's a pretty, talented, personable young woman who has certainly paid her dues over the years. Why is she so disliked among the fans. I have never really understood all the animosity. Anyone?

 

It's just dislike among the stage48 microcosm of regular contributers, so about 8 people

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From what I gather, there are 2 primary reasons someone that is not a Sakura or Ogiyuka oshi might not want Jurina to win.

1. Ogiyuka or Sakura snatching the crown (In the case of Yuka, Sasshi-style) would make for great drama in Nagoya.
2. Some perceive Jurina as overcompetitive and not gracious enough when receiving worse-than-expected results esp since she has been pushed longer than anyone currently at the top and she still hasn't become #1.

I'd personally like her to win. I think it's about time, but wouldn't mind if someone else somehow does it..

 

There are more than 8 not wishing her to win in this thread, looking at the lists

There are several reasons, depending on who you ask: An AKB48 single should be spearheaded by an AKB48 member (thus people haven't liked her since Oogoe Diamond); Jurina is the most all-time pushed member ever, and pushed members (starting from Acchan) tend to get more extreme reactions (thus people haven't liked her since Oogoe Diamond); her extra competitive nature doesn't fit for the pure, simple idol image some people like (thus people haven't liked her since Oogoe Diamond); she has been pretty obnoxious about winning the election, keeping saying that every election; etc.

Personally, I like the current meme of having Jurina been beaten again and again.

 

@lizuka-Tengu you keep mentioning how Yuihan's this and that but is her sousenkyo results really reflecting it?
2nd Senbatsu Election - Not Ranked
3rd Senbatsu Election - #19 (Senbatsu)
4th Senbatsu Election - #15 (Senbatsu)
5th Senbatsu Election - #13 (Senbatsu)
6th Senbatsu Election - #13 (Senbatsu)
7th Senbatsu Election - #10 (Senbatsu)
8th Senbatsu Election - #11 (Senbatsu)
9th Senbatsu Election - #7 (Senbatsu) (Kami 7)
She's been pretty much stuck in the same position range ever she ranked. The only reason why she moved to kami7 last year was because of opt outs. In fact, her vote count even decreased. To predict her 1st based on social media count and all that is quite pathetic to be honest. There's no way she can even get on the edge of 100K this year.
2nd Senbatsu Election - n/a
3rd Senbatsu Election - (16,455)
4th Senbatsu Election - (25,541)
5th Senbatsu Election - (53,903)
6th Senbatsu Election - (40,232)
7th Senbatsu Election - (63,414)
8th Senbatsu Election - (58,610)
9th Senbatsu Election - (58,314)

 

That's just unconditional love and I'm truly sorry if you have never experienced that.

 

My new prediction:

1. Ogino Yuka/Miyawaki Sakura
2. Miyawaki Sakura/Ogino Yuka
3. Matsui Jurina
4. Okada Nana
5. Suda Akari
6. Muto Tomu
7. Takahashi Juri
8. Yokoyama Yui
9. Shiroma Miru
10. Yoshida Akari
11. Kato Minami
12. Mukaichi Mion
13. Tano Ayaka
14. Yabuki Nako
15. Arai Yuki
16. Minegishi Minami

 

@Iizuka-Tengu not only your post outs you as delusional, but the idea of Ogiyuka sleeping with some guy to get votes is disgustingly misogynistic.

You have literally no way of knowing that.

The sum of all votes (those for ranked and unranked girls) has never decreased, AFAIK.
A fan might have voted 100 times for Mayuyu, but this year he might be voting 50 times for Megu and 50 for Seichan.

We have no idea of knowing how individuals vote and we can only trust when a campaign spokesperson says at the end of the event that they voted X times.

So yeah, stop assuming and start educating yourself.

 

I would like it to be the following

1. Ogiyuka
2. Jurina
3. Sakura
4. Naachan
5. Dasu
6. Tomu
7. Miion
8. Nako
9. Yuihan
10. Juri
11. Mirurun
12. Hinatan
13. Yunana
14. Akarin
15. Someone in NGT that didn't rank in the Senbatsu Prelims
16. Miichan

It's not going to happen but I think the results could be this so I'll hold out hope.

 

This is my prediction based on mathematical models.

16. Ota Yuuri (37370 votes): after two great elections, i feel she has great chances of getting senbatsu or at least high ug. Minarun, Miichan and Tanaka Miku are other possible senbatsu members. I also think Akarin is possible senbatsu members, but since her numbers from 2017 are still out of the tendency, is hard to predict.
15. Homma Hinata (41230): i gave her the same amount that last year, not to much that i can do about her. I think she will go higher, anyway.
14. Nakai Rika (42132): with only 2 years, i pick a lineal growth.
13. Matsumura Kaori (45660): i was surprised with how low she was last year. I think she will rise again, but just to low senbatsu.
12. Furuhata Nao (47161): it was hard to pick an appropiated model for her... i ended up choosing linear.
11. Mukaichi Mion (47853): very hard to predict, but i think she will go high this year.
10 Takahashi Juri (51439): lineal, but close to exponential. I still think she can give a surprise.
9 Shiroma Miru (53933): she became exponential with last years result. I still wonder if this is related to sayane and fuu not participating...
8 Yokoyama Yui (59981): flat. No growth or changes in a few years.
7 Okada Nana (61866): until last year she was exponentialy growing, but now she is more lineal.
6. Suda Akari (73352): not too much to say.
5. Tomu Muto (87007): her numbers were perfectly linear until 2016.
4. Souda Sarina (90374): last year i predicted she would be in senbatsu assuming a lineal growth, but now she is clearly exponential. Let's see what happens.
3. Miyawaki Sakura (94950): last year she started to grow again, but i think it's not enough to win. Maybe she will have a chance if she gets some of Sashi's votes.
2. Ogino Yuka (110790): only 2 years... i don't think she can keep growing with a lineal pattern, so i picked logaritmic.
1. Jurina (120100): lineal until last year, now starting to lose impulse, but i think it's still enough to be number one.

 

lol, wut....imagine what will happen in Nagoya if this happen I support this for the lolz,
But I totally expect J to win. Like, come on...nearly everything is on her side. If she cannot win this time, I doubt she will ever.
The pressure is like Yuko on Gingham check's SSK I think.

 

Hi, I like your prediction with math models.
---
Switching Souda with Okada from this list will be my ideal senbatsu for now.

 

It's not exactly unique to stage48.

You know, now that I do recognise your name, I can kinda see why you're so high on the negative charts.

 

Hello, [change of tension]
Might I say, that it is my recent belief that ..the key word to anyone placing well in this extravaganza is: "Humility"
was anyone anymore humble in taking center than Sashihara Rino?.. [what do you think?]

 

I got 1st, 6th and 7th right! lol