2018 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

Predicitions

1. Matsui Jurina
2. Miyawaki Sakura (she's had a 20-30k gap to Jurina for 3 years now, I don't think she can overtake her)
3. Okada Nana (with 9th album and 51st single center, I think she might be able to overtake Yuihan)
4. Yokoyama Yui
5. Suda Akari (if SKE wotas want Jurina to win just to become SSK #1, Suda might drop)
6. Ogino Yuko (although hard to judge, I think she will keep her senbatsu position at least for another year)
7. Souda Sarina
8. Takahashi Juri
9. Furuhata Nao
10. Shiroma Miru
11. Homma Hinata
12. Muto Tomu
13. Mukaichi Mion
14. Takayanagi Akane
15. Yoshida Akari
16. Minegishi Minami

Hopes

• Sayanee and Muto participate. I believe they would both make it into Senbatsu, Sayanee possibly even fighting for 1st
• I already put Miichan in my predicitions, but I'd like her to make the senbatsu cut again
• Undergirls might be a stretch, but I would really love for Komiharu to get back into Undergirls. I believe she'll definitely make it into Next Girls this year, but Undergirls would be my dream
• Tano ranks in!! At best even in top 80. I know she has more international than national fans, but I hope that we can make it happen
• Katomina makes it into NGT's best 7 members (currently she is 9th)

Also, in case anyone is interested, I compiled a list of the top 7 members of each respective sister group. I made the list starting at 2009, but I'll only post the 2017 results, maybe this will make some people think about their predictions/hopes a bit more. I put graduated members in bold (and the Teams are as they were last summer)

Spoiler: AKB48

• (2) Watanabe Mayu (AKB48, Team B) (149,132)
• (7) Yokoyama Yui (AKB48, Team A) (58,314)
• (9) Okada Nana (AKB48, Team 4) (48,143)
• (11) Takahashi Juri (AKB48, Team 4) (42,663)
• (17) Mukaichi Mion (AKB48, Team K) (35,201)
• (19) Minegishi Minami (AKB48, Team K) (34,688)
• (21) Kato Rena (AKB48, Team B) (30,282)

Spoiler: SKE48

• (3) Matsui Jurina (SKE48, Team S) (113,615)
• (6) Suda Akari (SKE48, Team E) (63,124)
• (8) Souda Sarina (SKE48, Team KII) (52,475)
• (14) Furuhata Nao (SKE48, Team KII) (49,202)
• (15) Takayanagi Akane (SKE48, Team KII) (38,576)
• (18) Matsumura Kaori (SKE48, Team KII) (34,977)
• (22) Oya Masana (SKE48, Team S) (30,236)

Spoiler: NMB48

• (12) Shiroma Miru (NMB48, Team M + AKB48, Team A) (41,491)
• (16) Yoshida Akari (NMB48, Team M) (35,540)
• (20) Sutou Ririka (NMB48, Team N) (31,779)
• (27) Ota Yuuri (NMB48, Team BII) (28,452)
• (33) Kato Yuuka (NMB48, Team M) (25,988)
• (39) Murase Sae (NMB48, Team BII) (24,585)
• (48) Okita Ayaka (NMB48, BII) (22,264)

Spoiler: HKT48

• (1) Sashihara Rino (HKT48, Team H) (246,376)
• (4) Miyawaki Sakura (HKZ48, Team KIV + AKB48, Team A) (82,803)
• (28) Tanaka Miku (HKT48, Team H) (28,335)
• (31) Moriyasu Madoka (HKT48, Team KIV) (27,384)
• (34) Fuchigami Mai (HKT48, Team KIV) (25,900)
• (35) Tomonaga Mio (HKT48, Team KIV + AKB48, Team 4) (25,733)

Spoiler: NGT48

• (5) Ogino Yuka (NGT48, Team NIII) (73,368)
• (10) Kitahara Rie (NGT48, Team NIII) (45,684)
• (13) Homma Hinata (NGT48, Team NIII) (41,230)
• (23) Nakai Rika (NGT48, Team NIII) (29,903)
• (25) Takakura Moeka (NGT48, Team NIII) (28,623)
• (41) Nishigata Marina (NGT48, Team NIII) (24,401)
• (53) Yamaguchi Maho (NGT48, Team NIII) (20,818)

STU48 didn't rank in 2017

 

Muto Tomu actually has announced that she will participate in SSK this year in her seitansai.

 

With Tomu declaring, new predicts.

1. Ogiyuka
2. Jurina
3. Sakura
4. Yuihan
5. Okada -> Tomu
6. Souda -> Okada
7. Miru -> Souda
8. Juri -> Miru
9. Kodama-> Juri
10. Akarin
11. Hinatan
12. Mion
13. Miku
14. KatoRena
15. Rika
16. YuiYui

Took out Kodama, because I have the feeling her time in 48 might be done.

 

Hopes:

• Sakura ranks 1 (Jurina 2)
• Some STU members ranks
• Ikumin, Hazuki and Tano ranks, Katomina ranks higher
• Mion and Mako in senbatsu, Nana in Kami 7, Komi in high undergirls/senbatsu
• Hana push finally works

Faraway Dreams:

• Hinachan and Moeka ranks

Predictions:

• Jurina takes 1
• NGT domination
• More Team 8 ranks
• No big surprise other than continued NGT ranks

Fears:

• N
• G
• T
• domination

 

In that case I'll swap Muto out for Takino (edited my post). I know it would make more sense to push her in between Homma Hinata and Yumiko, but I just wanna see Miichan in senbatsu so bad, and I'd have to push her to #17 in that case then

 

Revision after RH result and the recent declarations :
1 Jurina / Sakura / Ogiyuka
4 Naachan
5 Yui
6 Juri
7 Tomu
8 Miru
9 .... etc, the rest.

 

Guys do you really think Yumirin will enter senbatsu?
I mean, I would really hope so, but really?
I mean, it is their first year...
Nice to see people having optimistic thoughts, though

 

^ Technically it is their 2nd year in SSK XD

But probably not in senbatsu though definitely should rank in. At most under girls range.

 

I really don't think Dasu counts on SKE wotas. She has a huge fandom all to herself.

What I think:
1. Ogino Yuka
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Miyawaki Sakura
4. Okada Nana
5. Mutou Tomu
6. Suda Akari
7. Yokoyama Yui
9. Mukaichi Mion
10. Takahashi Juri
11. Yoshida Akari
12. Shiroma Miru
13. Furuhata Nao
14. Nakai Rika
15. Kojima Mako
16. Minegishi Minami

Churi and Hinatan drops to undergirls. Hanachan in undergirls as well. Haruppi probably undergirls or graduate. Renacchi probably graduate.

ETA: Oh I forgot Sally. I guess she'll probably be either above Mion or below Mion so bye Miichan.

 

Prediction:

1. Miyawaki Sakura
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Ogino Yuka
4. Suda Akari
5. Okada Nana
6. Yokoyama Yui
7. Shiroma Miru
8. Honma Hinata
9. Takahashi Juri
10. Mukaichi Mion
11. Furuhata Nao
12. Yoshida Akari
13. Takayanagi Akane
14. Minegishi Minami
15. Nakai Rika
16. Kato Rena

17. Oguma Tsumugi (random NGT member again...)
18. Kojima Mako
19. Kuranoo Narumi
20. Takakura Moeka
21. Kojima Mako
22. Matsumura Kaori
23. Tanaka Miku
24. Fukuoka Seina
25. Yabuki Nako
26. Oguri Yui
27. Obata Yuna
28. Kubo Satone
29. Oba Mina
30. Moriyasu Madoka
31. Okabe Rin
32. Tomonaga Mio

Sakura never caught up to Jurina before, but now Sasshi's out and her votes are probably going to Sakura/Nako

 

1. SKE48 Team S Matsui Jurina
2. HKT48 Team KIV Miyawaki Sakura
3. NGT48 Team NIII Ogino Yuka
4. AKB48 Team 4/STU48 Team SIII Okada Nana
5. HKT48 Team H Kodama Haruka
6. AKB48 Team A Yokoyama Yui
7. NMB48 Team M Shiroma Miru
8. AKB48 Team K Muto Tomu
9. AKB48 Team B Takahashi Juri
10. SKE48 Team KII Furuhata Nao
11. SKE48 Team KII Souda Sarina
12. NMB48 Team M Yoshida Akari
13. AKB48 Team A Mukaichi Mion
14. NGT48 Team NIIII Nakai Rika (NEW)
15. NGT48 Team NIII Honma Hinata
16. AKB48 Team 8/Team K Kuranoo Narumi

17. AKB48 Team A Kato Rena
18. NMB48 Team BII Ota Yuuri
19. HKT48 Team H Tanaka Miku
20. AKB48 Team K Kojima Mako
21. AKB48 Team 8/Team A Oguri Yui
22. NGT48 Team NIII Takakura Moeka
23. SKE48 Team KII Obata Yuna (NEW)
24. NGT48 Team NIII Oguma Tsugumi (NEW)
25. AKB48 Team K Muto Orin

 

Predict

1. Jurina
2. Sakura
3. Ogiyuka
4. Suda
5. Yuihan
6. Tomu
7. Naachan
8. Sarina
9. Juri
10. Mirurun
11. Akarin
12. Mion
13.
14. Miichan
15.
16. Renacchi

I wonder if Yuiri will participate this year SSK and make it to Senbatsu... More team 8 in Senbatsu will be very nice. Maybe Rika and Okappa will be able to fill the empty lots.
Still, I am afraid that Akarin's rank will drop I have a feeling that this will also be last chance for Katomina, Rittan, Tani, Tano and Komi to rank up...

 

^Old prediction
vNew Prediction

1. Matsui Jurina (Nagoya Dome, victory is Jurina's)
2. Ogino Yuka (Wouldn't be surprised especially with all the success the nugget girls have been receiving)
3. Miyawaki Sakura (Meh)
4. Suda Akari (Has always been a strong one)
5. Okada Nana (Naachan has been doing great)
6. Muto Tomu (Comeback but not too high up since she did miss out A LOT)
7. Yokoyama Yui (Meh. Yuihan never really had a significant increase in votes)
8. Souda Sarina (I honestly don't know where to put Sally)
9. Takahashi Juri (Meh)
10. Shiroma Miru (NMB center power???)
11. Honma Hinata (Again, nugget successes)
12. Mukaichi Mion (Comeback)
13. Yoshida Akari (Youtube)
14. Furuhata Nao (Meh. Really do hope Nao keeps her place or even rise though)
15. Takayanagi Akane (Meh)
16. Kojima Mako (If Kojimako can't make it this year, yeah bye)

I don't know why you are placing so many bets on Rika lol. She has an agency backing her up. Miichan is also done with. It's been like, what? 3 years?

 

hope:
1-Sakura(i really hope she can beat jurina)
2-Jurina(All the story of her wanting to be #1 has bored me)
3-Naachan(she deserves it)
4-Ogiyuka (small rise, but not too much)
5-Suda(she'll just keep going her pace)
6-Yuihan(hard, but i'd like to see her raise)
7-Tomu( beat the crap out of management girl)
8-Juri(she good here)
9-Hinatan(she needs to keep senbatsu)
10-Sally (she was good in last year's pv)
11-Naru(she deserves to have the chance to shine as the star she is)
12-Miichan(last push and then grad)
13-Miion(akb needs strenght)
14-Miru(she needs to be there for nmb)
15-Nao
16-Akarin (hang in there)


prediction:
1-Jurina(bah)
2-Sakura (next year for sure)
3-Naachan(good push)
4-Akari
5-Ogiyuka
6-Yuihan
7-Miru(bah)
8-Tomu(she will rise but no kami7)
9-Juri(she can do it I think)
10-Miion( I expect her to bounce back immediatly)
11-Sarina
12-Hinatan
13-Akarin
14-Yuiyui(CRAZY PUSH)
15-Nao
16-Miichan

CONCLUSION
KOMI undergirls again
NARU at least high undergirls
MAHO next girls

 

Until the girls apply for SSK, and the venue is confirmed, I'll just say one thing: don't underestimate Sally.

 

But she is short haired, I like Nana Okada to win.... She is so close to my oshimen. It's Owada.
Please don't make rumor, but I hear about Nana on Indonesian fan page. Nana likes woman, not man.
Maybe Japanese man will not send her voting ticket because of it.
BUT I think she's winning

 

There was a lot of discussion on this before. According to Naachan herself, she just doesn't care about gender, so technically she could like both men and women. But I guess Naachan is the only person who knows who she likes, we can't know what she's actually thinking/feeling. But I think it would be really dumb to not vote for someone based on their (unconfirmed) orientation. And it's not like she's the only one who expressed interest in girls anyways. Jurina has been #3 for 2 years already and is one of the two likely winners for this year's SSK, and she's been going on about how she likes kissing girls and how she had a crush on Mayuyu for years already. If a member loses somebody's vote because of that, she will gain somebody else's. I wouldn't be too worried about Naachan's position because of that

 

Sorry, I forgot how to make a quote. Please

I won't worry for her because she has talent for sing and dance and she is beautiful now

 

My prediction:

Senbatsu
1. Matsui Jurina
2. Miyawaki Sakura
3. Ogino Yuka
4. Okada Nana
5. Suda Akari
6. Yokoyama Yui
7. Muto Tomu
8. Souda Sarina
9. Takahashi Juri
10. Homma Hinata
11. Shiroma Miru
12. Mukaichi Mion
13. Takayanagi Akane
14. Kato Rena
15. Nakai Rika (with NGT fan's power)
16. Minegishi Minami (she'll make it this year)

Undergirls
17. Matsumura Kaori
18. Furuhata Nao
19. Kojima Mako
20. Yoshida Akari
21. Ota Yuuri
22. Tanaka Miku
23. Kuranoo Narumi
24. Kawamoto Saya
25. Tomonaga Mio
26. Takakura Moeka
27. Yabuki Nako
28. Kato Yuuka
29. Fukuoka Seina
30. Fuchigami Mai
31. Komiyama Haruka
32. Oguri Yui (with that crazy push)

 

Prediction :
(1 - 3) J, Sakura, Naachan
(4 - 8) Suda, Furuhata, Yokoyama, Shiroma, Tomu
(9 - 12) Takahashi, Souda, Ogino, Oguri Yui
(13-16) Random girls from UG / NG
Hope :
1. J / Sakura did not surpass 100k votes,
2. Okada doubled her votes to save AKB face in sousenkyo
3. At least 3-5 STU member rank in top 80
4. Random draft 3rd gen rank in UG
5. Oguri & Kurano in senbatsu
6. Fukuoka seina get a higher rank than Mukaichi / Komiyama