2018 Senbatsu Election Predictions/Hopes/Dreams & Etc

My early prediction (with some commentary):

1. Jurina (the gap is just too big, her wotas will go all out to make sure this is locked down)
2. Ogiyuka (not enough data to go on, but going on by RH, then the NGT wotas will be on top of their game, I can see this happening)
3. Sakura (her vote has been stagnant for 3 elections, unless some Sasshi vote spills to her, I don't see it happening)
4. Naachan (She's been on a roll, if her wotas and STU wotas can combine, I think this is possible)
5. Dasu (She has a strong base that should keep her around here, don't see why it should banish all of a sudden)
6. Sally (She's been rising for the last two years... I can see one more push into Kami-7)
7. Tomu (Aki-P's worst nightmare becomes reality... if her wota base can come back strong, I think she makes it in)
8. Yuihan
9. Mirurun
10. Juri
11. Hinatan
12. Takayanagi
13. Furuhata
14. Mion
15. Kojimako
16. Renacchi

UG Center. Rikahime

of course, this doesn't take into account those huge rises no one is seeing so it could be way off, especially 11 and below ... who knows, we might see Okappa in Kami 7 for all we know if those NGT millionaires are real

 

Now that we know who is participating.

The fight for the top spot is between Sakura, Jurina, and OgiYuka. It reasonably could go any way in terms of a winner. In my opinion though, the vote count will be 140k+ for #1 and at least 105k for #3.
I think top three will be:
1. Ogino Yuka
2. Matsui Jurina
3. Miyawaki Sakura
Spots 4-10 are battled between Dasu, Yuihan, Sally, Naachan, Hinatan, Mion, and Miru. I think Yuihan will be overtaken by some of the others. Naachan has the most momentum at the moment, so I see her at #4. Miru is probably next in terms of momentum, but I don't see her getting any higher than Hinatan/Dasu. Sally and Dasu are unpredictable, but I suspect they'll drop.
4. Okada Nana
5. Honma Hinata
6. Suda Akari
7. Shiroma Miru
8. Yokoyama Yui
9. Mukaichi Mion
10. Souda Sarina
The rest of the senbatsu is hardest to predict, except Juri, Nao and Akarin are probably safe. NGT fans are really serious this year, and we might be surprised by yet another newcomer in senbatsu.
11. Takahashi Juri
12. Takakura Moeka
13. Furuhata Nao
14. Yoshida Akari
15. Nakai Rika
16. Takayanagi Akane

UG is impossible to tell. I think it'll look something like this:
17. Yabuki Nako (center, Miku rivalry, and Sasshi votes. I think Sasshi's votes to Nako are like Tomu's votes to Orin. She may even make senbatsu)
18. Oguri Yui (senbatsu candidate too, depending on how much hype she generates through TeacherX2)
19. Kato Rena
20. Ota Yuuri
21. Nishigata Marina
22. Kojima Mako
23. Kuranoo Narumi
24. Tanaka Miku
25. Yamaguchi Maho
26. Minegishi Minami
27. Komiyama Haruka
28. Fukuoka Seina
29. Kubo Satone
30. Okabe Rin
31. Obata Yuna
32. Miyajima Aya

It would be really cool and very unexpected if someone like Seichan or Naru rises to senbatsu. Miichan is bound to drop. AKB members will fill the UG category.

Edit: whoops, Miyajima Aya not participating and I forgot Tomu.

 

It may be mean, but in the most unfortunate way possible it would be hilarious

 

she's not participating if i remember

 

this is not a prediction. this is an illusion. wake up.

 

IF she's still gonna rank at 19 after all these years and all the open slots she really might as well graduate.

 

Aren’t there only 2 slots? Mayu and Sasshis spots... Plus Tomu is also participating which is a Senbatsu Lock. Maybe it’s just me being hopeful though. I don’t want her to graduate.

 

3 plus Riripon but yea. It's just frustrating how she has never never had a vote jump. She just improves by 2-4 rank every year, mostly cause people above her graduate. If she ranks up by two ranks this year then AKB really isn't for her.

 

I really don’t wanna agree, but I think you’re right. If she doesn’t rank in Senbatsu, please be UG center. :/

 

It's ok tho. Our girl is booking jobs left and right. She's fed.

 

You’re right. I’ll just keep saving up money for votes. I wish to her the best of luck!

 

I have one wish and that is for Not-Jurina to get first.

Please Tomu, be the dark horse we need. (hopeless musings)
The Tomu campaign is beginning at least, with Nemousu.

 

1. Matsui Jurina (I am Team HKT, but I think Jurina’s fanbase are as determined as she is. I won’t be surprised if she get’s number 1.)
2. Miyawaki Sakura (I hope she gets number 1 or the vote gap is small, so she will change her mind and enter next year)
3. Ogino Yuka
4. Homma Hinata (High rank – never in akb senbatsu. I hope she does get in a management chosen senbatsu one day. At least ngt treat her well)
5. Suda Akari
6. Okada Nana
7. Takahashi Juri (TEAM 12TH GEN)
8. Yokoyama Yui
9. Muto Tomu (12TH GEN DESERVE BETTER I hope she makes it even higher!)
10. Souda Sarina
11. Shiroma Miru
12. Furuhata Nao
13. Yoshida Akari
14. Mukaichi Mion
15. Matsumura Kaori
16. Minegishi Minami (I AM HOPING SHE FINALLY MAKES IT. Its pretty sad how shes never made imho) (or Renacchi)

Undergirls (well some of them)
17. Kojima Mako. (I don’t see her making senbatsu quite yet, but a kojimako center song, I am here for it!)
18. Kato Rena (same with Mako, I don’t see her making senbatsu or she makes senbatsu but by a few votes. E.g. nyan nyan kamen and Miichan at the 45th )
19. Oguri Yui
20. Takakura Moeka
21. Kuranoo Narumi
25. Fukuoka Seina
Other undergirls predictions: Goto Moe, Yabuki Nako, Komiyama Haruka, Taniguchi Megu, Nishigata Marina, Ego Yuna, Yamaguchi Maho, Tashima Meru, Matsuoka Hana

Next girls:
Sasaki Yukari – next girls center or close
Iwatate Saho – Next girls center or close
Tanaka Natsumi, Motomura Aoi, Tanigawa Airi, Kubo Satone, Omori Miyu

New Rankers: Chiba Erii, Yamauchi Mizuki (the only 16th gen I know because of Karen lool), Sugawara Maya, Iwata Hina, Yamamoto Ayaka, Jo Eriko, Nakano Ikumi, Macharin

 

4 with rie , also nao , chuuri and akarin may drop some votes too. Nao and chuuri have history drop some ranks and idk if akarin still on her momentum for this last 1 year .

nice too see some predictions put sakura on 3rd , i’ll hope i’ll be the one who will smiling at last , this year SSK will be entertaining finally after consecutive 3 year lol

 

Think about Paru. She was one of the most pushed members of her time, yet could only make Kami-7 once. Even so, she was invaluable to the group proven by the Kouhaku rankings before she graduated. Basically, she sucked at sousenkyo (and HS sales) but was popular amongst another crowd, and Rena could be the same way.

 

That's the thing though, won't it be better to try giving the kind of push and opportunity given to Paruru and Kato Rena to someone who can be both popular to the wotas and the gen public?

Its not like Paruru and Renachi became popular on their own.

 

Maybe not popular, but I definitely found out about her after watching the 1830m no Yume dvd. Her face is adorable. And I wouldn’t be surprised if she gains maybe some more fans after her PB.

 

I'm late to the party

But still...

Senbatsu Prediction

*This is assuming that Sayanee, Sasshi, Yukirin and Annin do not participate.*

01 Matsui Jurina : I have no doubt that this will be Jurina's year, her wotas probably won't f*ck up now of all times.
02 Miyawaki Sakura : Constantly depicted to be Jurina's rival, but her disappointing vote count speaks for itself.
03 Ogino Yuka : I really want to believe that last year's vote count wasn't a fluke. NGT management should acknowledge her potential.
04 Yokoyama Yui : I have serious doubts about this one but nothing is impossible. C'mon Soukantoku needs more appreciation.
05 Suda Akari: It's still a rise, though she could easily be in Top3. I think this is still a realistic prediction though.
06 Okada Nana : I have high hopes for her rank, and a lot of other users seem to agree on this too.
07 Muto Tomu : I don't think of this rank as wishful thinking, she hasn't lost her hype. Will AKB finally be the majority in Kami7?
08 Takahashi Juri : Aaaa I just really want her to rise, too bad she's still out of Kami7 even in my semi-hopeful prediction list.
09 Shiroma Miru : Hm...I'm not sure about Mirurun...she could easily be higher but this sounds right, at least to me.
10 Kodama Haruka : I think HKT wotas will focus on Sakura this year, if that doesn't happen she would be around #5-7.
11 Mukaichi Mion : Last year was unfortunate, I think the disappointment will fuel her vote count this year...though her rank depends on how many votes that would translate into...
12 Yoshida Akari : She got her own sub-unit, that should give her a huge boost but this is my bet for now.
13 Kato Rena : It would be hilarious if she remains in UG this year...no offense
14 Souda Sarina : I don't know enough about this girl to give me a firm grasp of where she'll rank but she should remain in senbatsu.
15 Furuhata Nao : I really hope she doesn't drop but the competition is strong this year...
16 Komiyama Haruka : I felt like a troll writing this, but any AKB representation in senbatsu is very much welcome.

Undergirls Prediction

This is much harder to predict because there are so many girls that have a shot in this slot so I'll just do a brief prediction.

17 Nakai Rika: Rikahime~ I really like her personality and she has a fair shot in senbatsu but a center song sounds better to me.
18 Homma Hinata : In my own defense this is a very respectable rank for a member who has under 5 years of experience.
19 Oguri Yui : I can smell raging fans from the other half of the world. She still needs 150% of her votes to even rank here though.
20 Takayanagi Akane : Oof I can't believe I ranked her here, she's one of my SKE favs, suddenly I think this list is utterly f*cked up.
21 Matsumura Kaori : I like her new look, but I have no idea if she can go back to senbatsu yet.
22 Kojima Mako : This is waaay too low...but I can't remove anyone above lol...
23 Minegishi Minami : Uh...this is going to be a new record for her worst rank but I really don't see her in senbatsu, sry to her fans.
24 Takakura Moeka : This list sounds really boring now. I think this is the first time SSK has made me think so much.
25 Oya Masana : A gorgeous beauty who doesn't deserve to drop, but I can't see the hype so...
26 Oba Mina : High UG, Mid UG or Low UG...she'll probably just remain her rank.
27 Tanaka Miku : Her rank increased a lot, but her vote count was kinda bland, she can be high UG though.
28 Ota Yuuri : I don't follow her at all so I'm sorry if I offended anyone by ranking NMB's #3(excluding Riripon) this low.
29 Moriyasu Madoka : She had a 7K increase last year, she can definitely be higher but then again taking risks aren't my thing.
30 Tomonaga Mio : C'mon Mio oshis, how did that massive drop happen? You guys need to reclaim yourselves this year.
31 Nishigata Marina : Her B-side center was really good. She will definitely rise a lot.
32 Matsuoka Hana : I like her but its going to be a long climb to senbatsu.

NG,FG,UPG is going to be a clusterf*ck so I'll stop here so my brain doesn't explode.

Edit
Move every rank up except Hanachan.
29 Kawamoto Saya
30 Kuranoo Narumi
31 Ota Yuuri

 

But the list of members participating is already out tho, and btw Haruppi is not participating

 

Hi, where have u been?

1. Kodama Haruka & Moriyasu Madoka are not participating
2. Oya Masana has graduated