1. Check the 2023 Stage48 Member Ranking Results, how did your Oshimen rank this year?

Event / Concert 37th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2014/06/07)

Discussion in 'AKB48 News & Releases' started by HoneyRoastedPeanuts, Jan 8, 2014.

  1. HoneyRoastedPeanuts

    HoneyRoastedPeanuts Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2011
    Location:
    Shizuoka, Japan
    Twitter:
    hrp919
    [placeholder]
     
  2. Silenka

    Silenka Future Girls Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2012
    Location:
    USA
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    We have many members with looming graduations already. Yuuko will probably not run, Haruna may not either (though she hasn't announced graduation yet like Yuuko has). And only time will tell who else decides to drop out - Takamina and Sasshi may not run due to their positions as GM and co-theater manager, for example. There were also a few girls who chose to opt out of the election during the application process, and I assume there will be even more girls who feel okay opting out this year due to the precedent set (assuming it's allowed by management, of course).

    And that's just scratching the surface, not to mention the top members of sister groups who might graduate before the election. SKE has tons of girls who are just biding their time waiting to graduate (if you listen to the banter on the SKE forum here, it feels like half of the group is going to disappear lol).

    It might be a really strange and hollow election this year considering the top members the groups stand to lose. I have the feeling the landscape of this election is going to be so vastly different from the ones previous that it's completely insane to try to predict the outcome with any amount of foresight right now.
     
  3. polar_star

    polar_star Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2013
    Oshimen:
    shibataaya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I think senbatsu lineup will stay predictable once the graduations are all announced... But UG/NG/FG will be like war zone, anything can happen :D
     
  4. Jayden

    Jayden Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Location:
    Singapore
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    You must be hugely deluded if you think Mayu would be able to amass 50k votes to overtake Sasshi's 150k last year and that's assuming cetris paribus. There will be a huge increase in votes.

    Sasshi will win by a long shot, bar Yuko participating and another stupid non-issue scandal. It's gonna be a weird top 3 this year with Team B taking all of those spots.
     
  5. goh1925

    goh1925 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 24, 2013
    Oshimen:
    yokoyamayui01
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    ^ Well Shibata Aya did amass a huge amount of vote (in terms of percentage, not in terms of absolute vote count) consider she didn't rank previously. :^^;:
     
  6. Jayden

    Jayden Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Location:
    Singapore
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Ahaha you do know how organised SKE wota can be, how else did Anata to Christmas Eve and all the KKS songs rank so high in their request hour otherwise. :lol:
     
  7. polar_star

    polar_star Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2013
    Oshimen:
    shibataaya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Don't SKE wota plan ahead of each election which girls they will push? Ayachan had the advantage of mass grad followed by the team shuffle which made wotas very eager support an ori-E member like her, not to forget that she was already popular among SKE fans and a lot of them thought she should be a senbatsu representative of E.

    Not very comparable to Mayu/Sasshi lol, maybe if an underrated NMB member suddenly ranks this year it could be compared to Aya's situation.
     
  8. cubozoa

    cubozoa Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2013
    Location:
    Germany
    Oshimen:
    suzumotomiyu
    Twitter:
    Cubozoa48
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I'm in for Sasshi winning again. [party]

    A nice surprise would be to see Yukirin on #2, Mayuyu on #3 but that's just too unlikely to happen. :^^;:
     
  9. goh1925

    goh1925 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    May 24, 2013
    Oshimen:
    yokoyamayui01
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I don't mind people calling me sour grapes for saying this, but I dislike these agenda push. (that extent to other agenda push like Shu too)
    I guess I really want to see the girls take pride in knowing that it's their own oshi that vote them in,
    instead of some agenda push.
     
  10. brunoiaz

    brunoiaz Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2011
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Sasshi and SKE Wotas can do everything. If this year the Election have 63 SKE members and Sasshi, I will not be surprised haha

    Last year we had a lot of Ori Team E members on the Election because of their disbandment, so maybe this year we will have the remaining 1st/2nd gen members ranking (if they don't graduate until June) or a 5th/6th gen push. In both cases, SKE Wotas will be able to rank a lot of members no matter what lol

    Meru and Mio ranked last year, so I don't doubt that Nako will make the Top 64 this year (especially if she is the new HKT center). Natsu, Aoi and Madoka also have a high possibility to rank.

    NMB is still a big question to me. Maybe Mirurun? Or even a Team M Wota push for Yuipon or a Team BII one for Uuka, I don't really know.

    And AKB. Probably a lot of "new new gen" members (12th Gen+). I don't think that a 15th gen member can make it, but let's see. Ricchan and Annin will join or will be close to Senbatsu, but I can see a "surprise" member joining it (Probably from SKE haha) (Kaotan? :awesome: ).

    But what I really want is the older members ranking for their first time (Tanamin, Micha etc.). And some Draft members too. And Marinchan. And Aya. And Naana. :hehe:

    We have power votes since the first Election, so I don't really see the problem with "agenda push". The Election is not "how popular you are", is "how rich your Wotas are" :D
     
  11. polar_star

    polar_star Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2013
    Oshimen:
    shibataaya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    What's wrong with an agenda push? That means all those fans WANTED to use their money to support girls like Aya and Shu. If you think about it, any vote you give in the election is an agenda to support your favorite member/s. It's just that certain fans prefer doing it in a more organized manner. Since this fandom is all about supporting a girl and her dreams, these "agendas" can be a simple and effective way to achieve it.

    Plus if management gets the right to push their favorites, then it's only fair that fans do the same :D
     
  12. drazaar

    drazaar Member Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Oshimen:
    nagaomariya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I wonder if that annin fan with the 4k votes last time is gonna step up his game this year? :awesome:
     
  13. DX|Takamina

    DX|Takamina Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2013
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    takahashiminami
    Twitter:
    DXTakamina
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I am kinda curious if Hilary is gonna rank. Kinda hope so, I like her ^^
     
  14. Zerase

    Zerase Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2011
    Oshimen:
    miyawakisakura
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Do you think my oshi Katorena has any possibility to rank this year?
     
  15. drazaar

    drazaar Member Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Oshimen:
    nagaomariya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    ^I'm pretty confident she will.
    Hillary on the other hand .... [worried]

    As far as the actual predictable part of it, the senbatsu. Here I go:
    16. Kizaki Yuria (SKE48 Team S) 30,307
    15. Kawaei Rina (AKB48 Team A) 26,764
    14. Shibata Aya (SKE48 Team KII) 39,739
    13. Suda Akari (SKE48 Team KII) 43,252
    12. Watanabe Miyuki (NMB48 Team N) 44,116
    11. Yokoyama Yui (AKB48 Team A) 53,903
    10. Yamamoto Sayaka (NMB48 Team N) 51,793
    9. Shimazaki Haruka (AKB48 Team B) 57,275
    8. Miyazawa Sae (SNH48) 65,867
    7. Takahashi Minami (AKB48 Team A) 68,681
    6. Kojima Haruna (AKB48 Team B) 67,424
    5. Matsui Rena (SKE48 Team S) 73,173
    4. Matsui Jurina (SKE48 Team S) 77,170
    3. Kashiwagi Yuki (AKB48 Team B) 96,905
    2. Watanabe Mayu (AKB48 Team A) 101,210
    1. Sashihara Rino (HKT48 Team H) 150,570
     
  16. brunoiaz

    brunoiaz Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2011
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Since we are doing Senbatsu predictions...this year is really interesting with Yuko, Mariko and Tomochin graduating (+ Sae probably not join it and Kojiharu graduating).

    I'm pretty sure Ricchan will join Senbatsu, but Annin on the other hand...maybe fans got a little bit discouraged after her attitude last year. But she had more exposure in media and all, so maybe she will have a big increase in votes and join Senbatsu.

    About SKE: If Aya Wotas (that are hardcore wotas, by the way haha) make a power vote this year, she will much probably join Senbatsu and in a high position. But she is already in SKE Senbatsu, having more media exposure etc., so maybe they fell like it is a "mission accomplished" (Like Kyon Wotas). I think Yuria will be like Churi and have a solid position in Undergirls in the future. Since we have a lot of new spots in Senbatsu this year, she will probably increase to #14~#16, and then drop later.

    I don't doubt about Kaotan and Sakura joining Senbatsu, actually. And Miichan/Umechan/Rie Wotas may be able to make then return to Senbatsu this year (Umechan Wotas are quite organized so I would bet in them).

    Milky passing Sayanee and Mio passing Meru is a high possibility for this year too. Paruru will probably have a big increase, while Yui will keep ranking in the #10~#14 position.

    So...my prediction with the "not so-predictable" version :awesome:
    1. Sashihara Rino
    2. Watanabe Mayu
    3. Kashiwagi Yuki
    4. Matsui Jurina
    5. Matsui Rena
    6. Shimazaki Haruka
    7. Watanabe Miyuki
    8. Yamamoto Sayaka
    9. Takahashi Minami
    10. Yokoyama Yui
    11. Suda Akari
    12. Kawaei Rina / Shibata Aya
    13. Miyawaki Sakura
    14. Kizaki Yuria
    15. Umeda Ayaka / Minegishi Minami / Kitahara Rie / Iriyama Anna
    16. Matsumura Kaori / Minegishi Minami / Kitahara Rie / Iriyama Anna
     
  17. akbfan26

    akbfan26 Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2013
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I'm curious to where the Team 4 members will rank. During the 4th election, 4 members from old team 4 ranked:

    58. Ichikawa Miori
    57. Oba Mina
    54. Yamauchi Suzuran
    23. Shimazaki Haruka

    I remember a lot of talk and specualation about Paruru, whether she would make senbatsu or not.

    I'm curious to see where new team 4 will rank for the 6th election and whether they will surpass the old team 4. Minegishi is a certain to rank (senbatsu or under girls) but the others?
     
  18. DX|Takamina

    DX|Takamina Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2013
    Oshimen:
    takahashiminami
    Twitter:
    DXTakamina
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    I have reasonable hope someone from the three musketeers might rank actually ^^
     
  19. ForrestFuller

    ForrestFuller Senbatsu

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2013
    Location:
    Columbus, Ohio
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    Senbatsu
    1. Mayu Watanabe (Team A) (Senbatsu Center)
    2. Rino Sashihara (HKT48 Team H)
    3. Yuki Kashiwagi (Team B)
    4. Jurina Matsui (SKE48 Team S and AKB48 Team K)
    5. Minami Takahashi (Team A)
    6. Haruka Shimazaki (Team B)
    7. Haruna Kojima (Team B)
    8. Yui Yokoyama (Team A)
    9. Sayaka Yamamoto (NMB48 Team N)
    10. Rena Matsui (SKE48 Team E)
    11. Miyuki Watanabe (NMB48 Team N)
    12. Sae Miyazawa (SNH48 Team SII)
    13. Akari Suda (SKE48 Team KII)
    14. Minami Minegishi (Team 4)
    15. Ayaka Umeda (Team B)
    16. Kojima Mako (Team 4)
    --------------------------------------------------
    Undergirls
    17. Rina Kawaei (AKB48 Team A) (Ungergirls Center)
    18. Rie Kitahara (AKB48 Team K)
    19. Kaori Matsumura (SKE48 Research Student)
    20. Yuria KIzaki (SKE48 Team S)
    21. Sakura iyawaki (HKT48 Team H)
    22. Nana Yamada (NMB48 Team M)
    23. Anna Iriyama (Team A)
    24. Airi Furukawa (SKE48 Team KII)
    25. Nana Okada (Team 4)
    26. Kanon Kimoto (SKE48 Team E)
    27. Reina Fujie (Team B)
    28. Akane Takayangi (SKE48 Team KII)
    29. Aki Takajo (JKT48 Team J and AKB48 Team B)
    30. Haruka Katayama (Team B)
    31. Asuka Kuramochi (Team K)
    32. Miki Nishino (Team 4)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    Next Girls
    33. Yuka Tano (Team A) (Next Girls Center)
    34. Fuuko Yagura (NMB48 Team M and AKB48 Team A)
    35. Haruka Kodama (HKT48 Team H and AKB48 Team A)
    36. Kei Jonishi (NMB48 Team N)
    37. Aika Ota (HKT48 Team H)
    38. Masana Oya (SKE48 Team S)
    39. Meru Tashima (HKT48 Research Student)
    40. Makiko Saito (SKE48 Team S)
    41. Tomu Muto (AKB48 Team K)
    42. Mina Oba (AKB48 Team B) and (SKE48 Team KII)
    43. Akari Yoshida (NMB48 Team N)
    44. Madoka Umemoto (SKE48 Team E)
    45. Ryoha Kitagawa (SKE48 Research Student)
    46. Shu Yabushita (NMB48 Team BII)
    47. Sato Sumire (AKB48 Team A)
    48. Nagisa Shibuya (NMB48 Research Student)
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Future Girls
    49. Miori Ichikawa (AKB48 Team B and NMB48 Team N) (Future Girls Center)
    50. Mayu Ogasawara (NMB48 Team N)
    51. Mio Tomongaga (HKT48 Research Student)
    52. Kyoka Isonara (SKE48 Team S)
    53. Rina Matsumoto (SKE48 Team KII)
    54. Rina Hirata (AKB48 Team K)
    55. Nao Furuhata (SKE48 Team E and AKB48 Team K)
    56. Ami Kobayashi (SKE48 Team KII)
    57. Haruka Shimada (AKB48 Team K)
    58. Yukari Sasaki (Team A)
    59. Shiori Kaneko (SKE48 Team E)
    60. Ayaka Kikuchi (AKB48 Team A)
    61. Mizuki Uno (NMB48 Reasearch Student)
    62. Natori Wakana (AKB48 Team B)
    63. Mizuki Tsuchiyasu (AKB48 Reasearch Student)
    64. Miho Miyazaki (AKB48 Team K)

    As of January. Alot will change by then, don't know if Kojiharu will be in Election. I do think this will be Sashi and Takamina's last Election. Miichan makes it back to Senbatsu. Umeda at #15 is wishful thinking (she deserves to be there though) and Mako makes it to Senbatsu as the big surprise this year. I think the rest of Tentoumu Chu gets ranked as well.
     
  20. drazaar

    drazaar Member Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Oshimen:
    nagaomariya
    Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

    ^yagi wont drop out, trusttt me
    39. Nagao Mariya
    45. Tano Yuka
     

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