Event / Concert AKB48 27th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo 12/06/06

This year's general election will be held on June 6th at Nippon Budokan.

The number of participating members is currently at 237.

Voting ballots will be included in the 26th Single "Manatsu no Sounds Good!" released on May 23rd.

A major change in the rules for this year's election is that we will see 64 ranks - divided into four equal groups.

01-16 Senbatsu
17-32 Under Girls
33-48 Next Girls
49-64 Future Girls

VOTING GUIDELINES

Spoiler

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Spoiler

MEMBER PROFILES

Spoiler

ELECTION POSTERS

 

I'm interested to see how the 17-32 members end up, if they are in senbatsu, or actually undergirls. In saying that, it may not even matter, for all we know, Undergirls A may be the equivalent of senbatsu. I have a feeling now that "media senbatsu" is not as relevant anymore. I mean, top 16 may get more opportunities, but i think regardless of how team 4 members rank, they will be pushed a LOT more this year, especially as the team has just been complete.

As for Acchan, i think it can be seen as two ways. One is that she competes and her fans make their last ever votes for her and it is natural to assume she wins (it would be kind of disappointing if she doesnt in my opinion). However there is a chance that she doesn't compete, because it may be kind of useless for her, and also, it would be kind of embaressing and disappointing if she doesn't win, even with everyone knowing she graduates. personally i feel that she wont compete, because
1. It is probably not really important to her
2. if she competes and doesn't come first, i think it will be kind of weird, so there is an unnecssary risk factor involved if she competes. just my opinion though

 

I kind of agree on the Acchan thing. It's unknown as of yet exactly when she's graduating though, right? It could be at the end of the year, for all we know... Or it could be just before the elections. Again, we don't know.

But while I'm personally rooting for the current 2&3 *pokes sig* I do agree that given the circumstances it WOULD be extremely awkward for her not to win, should she be eligible to be voted for.

I feel like it's a no-win situation though... Let's say Acchan doesn't participate, and Yuko wins again... That would be a pretty hollow victory... If Yukirin (or anyone else who hasn't won before, for that matter) were to win instead, well they'll never know how they would have stacked up against Acchan this year either. If this had been a year earlier for example, with Yuko being the reigning #1 from the previous year, maybe that would change that sort of mindset... Then again, it'd just be more awkward for Acchan to graduate... No matter what situation I present, possible or purely hypothetical, none of it seems ideal for anyone. =/ And think, if Yuko did end up losing to someone other than Acchan... Ouch, you know? I mean she technically should become #1 this year if Acchan isn't taking part (and frankly, it's not as if she would have zero chance of overtaking Acchan since it has happened before) but regardless... If she were to win, Acchan or no Acchan, it goes back to the awkwardness I stated before.

I don't see anyone outside K9 having any chance of getting #1, so if Acchan isn't there, we have 8 choices. Yuko, who has won before and was only ever 2nd to Acchan. There's Yukirin who is the first to break the original K7, and is always on the rise and is the current #3. And then there's Mariko who has a 3-3-4 record and the top mixi rank (iirc), she also got some good promotion for the 24th single from winning the janken tournament... Mayuyu just got her solo debut, and also has her age going for her - she's the most likely of the top members to be there for a long time to come, and of course she's also the center for Warota as well. TBH I don't really see Kojiharu taking #1 but I don't see her falling too much either. She's kinda not the one getting the big pushes lately... Takamina, well she's the leader, but I don't think the #1 spot suits her. Of course whether or not it suits her doesn't control votes, but of course she's down to 7 so really I'm not even sure she could get that high anyway. Tomochin... Well she is falling lately... Her new single is due to come out but... I'm not sure. I doubt she'll get to #1 but maybe she'll climb back up a bit. We'll see. Sasshi, she's getting a big management push, and her solo debut as well. (Against N46... XD) But yeah, solo debut, management push, ranked #9... It's hard to know what'll happen with her. I have a feeling she might take a high spot... Whether #1 is possible or not, I'm not sure. I don't particularly expect it, but her jumps in the rankings have been quite large. It's hard to know what's gonna happen with her. =P

Wow I just posted a huuuuuge analysis... Sorry. >.< lol

Oh umm BTW errr

I never actually voted before (hardcore fan only since October 2011 so yeah) how do you go about that?

 

hm, i get where you're coming from, but it is probably best for them to come up with a decision that is the least unideal (if thats a word). I would assume management would consult with acchan (and they should be aware of her graduation date by then) and whether if its the best thing or not for her to compete. They would most likely factor in the stuff we discussed before deciding on Acchan. However, you can also say, that they may include Acchan, because they may know that is an extra 50,000 CD's being brought (im saying roughly 80,000 acchan fans will still buy the single) and they may want to maximize profits. that is the more "business" side of things i guess you can say, and i wouldn't dismiss that from being a possibility. Including her in the election, as a way to generate more money, when they know every acchan fan, left right and centre will buy a CD for her.

As for the yuko thing, if she didn't come first, it would be kind of strange too, i agree, however it wouldn't be as bad as Acchan missing 1st place due to the graduation tag attached to her. If acchan does not participate, im sure there will still be plenty of acchan fans who buy this CD (lets stick with 80,000) and those votes will be distributed to other members. which leads to..

As for your stuff about the top 9 being in contention, i think koj and sasshi don't have a chance in it, prob tomochin too unfortunately. I'm predicting it will have to most likely be the current top 5, maybe not even mariko. But, we basically have no idea who all these acchan fans, their 2nd favorites are. For all we know, they could all vote for takamina next, with her being acchans good buddy, fellow 1st gen member etc. and as a result, takamina can potentially have gained an easy 30,000+ votes, not including any new ones she got herself. If acchan doesnt compete, i dont think it will be as simple as Yuko taking 1st spot, when there will be so many extra votes floating around (which may lead back to your unideal situation of yuko not coming 1st)

 

^
Interesting theory about Acchan fans voting for Takamina. Just may well be true!! Takamina center this year? I'm all up for that!! =D

 

Yeah I agree about those bottom-K9 girls... ^^;

But it never occurred to me about who the Acchan-oshi's #2 is... That's a really good point. Bias makes me hope it's one of the girls I like... XD Hahaha

But your logic about Takamina could definitely bring her at least a good few more votes... It's hard to say for sure, I guess... We're not really in their heads, after all. LOL

 

If we compare last year's schedule with this year's schedule so far, we can see quite a lot of similarities: single releases, concerts, tours, etc. So i won't be surprised if Tokyo Dome (let's pretend it will be Acchan's farewell/final concert) is to be held at around the same time as last year's Seibu Dome concert (end of July). If that's the case then Acchan will most probably be in the elections. I'm guessing she'll do something like Erepyon did: stay around a month after the release of the 3rd/election single of the year and leave before the 4th single of the year

 

My biased side would still rather a Yukirin or Yuko center lol

(But a Takamina center for the year would be nice/good as well)

Such a pity the I cant participate in this voting.....

Spoiler

The crazier/random part of me is telling me to buy 30 of the singles to get 10 votes for the top 3 ranked members on my list if possible

Top 3 being - Yukirin, Rena and Yuko

 

To be honest, I highly doubt Acchan wouldn't be taking part in this election and get 1st. Rationally, it seems to be the best choice for both her and AKB.

If she's going to take part in it, it's almost guaranteed that she will be taking 1st, with tons of votes, way more than last year, from her fans (just looking at how SDN fans could push Kodoku na Runner from 24th to 3rd in Request Hour, Acchan's fans can do the same). After all, it's her last Sousenkyo, and fans would want to see her go out with a bang. To AKB, it's another new record, which can be the highest sales they can attain (although I hope they will get over this, keep, or go up another level). To Acchan, it's another good mark in her CV if she is going to stay in show biz. To the other girls, they have another full year to compete with each other, display their skills and charms to get that center position. By staying, Acchan will continue being the transition center for a while until end of the year, before jan-ken single, while AKB make their transition to a new era (i.e: pushing another girl, or girls, to be the new face of AKB48, shorting out the media senbatsu's feelings so they won't follow acchan and announce their graduations this year, etc.)
If Acchan withdraw from Sousenkyo this year, everyone's ranks would just go up by 1, that probably won't satisfy the other girls. Moreover, some of her fans may still be voting for another girl, but some may dropped it altogether, leading to lower sales and an unhappy AKS.

Although, rationally, it's better for her to stay in AKB for a few more years, yet she still decided to graduate within this year (I assume, unless she pulled a troll face and say "nah, I just announced it, it will happen in 2 years from now") so I'm not sure if she will decide to withdraw from Sousenkyo by herself again.

 

16 is the last place... So amina must get 16 this year... and takamina as my kami-oshi maybe she can gain her 5 spot again this year. I think

 

Oh god I laughed so hard on that I choked on my spit... XD That would be some crazy trollin'. =P

I suppose you do have a good point as to why she might be in the election after all, though.

 

The real crux of the issue is this, in my opinion:

Take two scenarios. 1) Acchan is eligible to be voted for. 2) Acchan is not eligible to be voted for.

1) Because Acchan is graduating, most people would sympathise and end up voting for her instead since, well, it'd be the last time she will ever feature in an AKB48 single. Such a phenomenon isn't uncommon to the 48 franchise - Request Hour Set List 2012 had a similar effect with SDN48 and Kodaku na Runner. When applied here though, this poses a few problems. Spoilered for length below:

Spoiler

- Poll accuracy as a determinant of sample popularity. Since most people would be voting for Acchan, the results would generate an overly skewed poll. Request Hour Set List 2012 never had this problem, as we never knew how many votes were attributed to each song and therefore, voting numbers never really mattered. To illustrate, let's say fans decided to vote for Acchan instead of their oshi, perhaps on the basis that they'd be ranked as senbatsu anyway, especially if said girl was already popular (e.g. Yuko, Sasshi, Kitarie, etc.). Below is a screenshot of a spreadsheet of voting analysis from the 2011 Senbatsu election as reference:

Pay attention to the difference in votes (Diff) column and % difference in votes (%Diff) column. Apart from the obvious huge differences in rank 1 to 3, the rest are fairly spread out ranging between 1k to ~5-6k difference in votes. If, however, everyone started voting for Acchan, then those differences will become very marginal. It would be much more difficult to obtain a clear picture of ranking below 1st because there really wouldn't be much separating (for example, using 2011 as reference) Takamina and Tomochin, making it rather pointless. Or, in short, "Acchan 1st, everyone else be damned". Statistically speaking, of course

- Unintentional results and image problems. So let's say what if, in contrast to the above point, people don't (mass-)vote for Acchan for whatever reason? Say Yuko took 1st rank. Can you imagine the sheer PR awkwardness that would occur if Acchan didn't get 1st? Yuko probably wouldn't feel very good for one, and the media would try and find reasons as to why Acchan didn't get 1st and link them to her reasons for graduating in the first place, conjuring up various "rumors" and other spiel ("Acchan v. Yuko rivalry as the reason behind graduation", "Acchan's popularity declining fast", "Acchan needs to get the hella out of AKB48", etc.) (side note: I just made these up out of whim for the purposes of this discussion. I don't condone nor do I support these reasons/headlines if they actually do exist.). Simply put, it wouldn't look good for AKB48's image as a whole. Nor would it look good for Acchan's future prospects in the Japanese media/entertainment industry. She is, "hot stock" after all and any image of her otherwise might be damaging. And no, rigging the results isn't a solution either.

- The mere presence of Acchan, especially with her looming graduation, overshadows everyone else who is eligible to be ranked, including Yuko. Minor point for the average Joe mainstream out in the public who doesn't really care about (the rest of) AKB48 anyway, but for some wota (and especially for many here), it could be disparaging and accusations of "media/management neglect for the rest of the girls below 1st" might prop up.

2) Depends how Acchan is treated here. Let's propose two sub-scenarios: a) Acchan isn't ranked but gets into the single senbatsu anyway just because. b) Acchan doesn't feature in the single at all.

a) This would be, in my opinion, the most optimal, but by no means the perfect, solution. Reasons are as follows, spoilered for length below:

Spoiler

- It's Acchan's last ever single as part of AKB48. It'd be sacrilege to ignore her otherwise for very obvious reasons. A possible exception might be if one were to release a dedicated-to-Acchan graduation single as well, but that itself might pose logistical problems - you'd have two AKB48 A-side singles in a traditionally limited (and packed) time-frame. Plus, there's the Tokyo Dome concert to take care of. I'd be worried about quality problems.

- It removes most of the voting problems associated with Scenario 1) above. Purely Acchan oshi might choose to sit out from the voting, but for the rest, it'd be "business as usual", just like the years before it. And besides, in this case, it's not like Acchan's just ignored from the single "because she's set to graduate". So everyone wins.

- Acchan gets a "free pass", compared to everyone else. Incensed wota, especially those supporting less-than-popular girls might get annoyed at this prospect, but I suspect they'd probably shrug it off because the only reason she gets a "free pass" is due to her graduation anyway. We don't actually know that though, which might play a factor.

b) Acchan sits out of this single (across all songs) because she's about to be no longer associated with AKB48 in the future. There are some major issues with this though, spoilered for length below:

Spoiler

- Acchan hasn't actually graduated yet. Of course, this depends on Tokyo Dome concert timings, but one would need to have an extremely good reason not to include her in her final single as an AKB48 member yet.

- Acchan would just overshadow everyone else - why bother have an election single that still has her in it? Because she's graduating - duhh - but then, why bother having an election at all? The alternative is to just make a standard A-side single without all this election brouhaha. Hence it might seem "right" to leave her out and perhaps propose another dedicated graduation single, as discussed in sub-scenario a). Of course, also mentioned above are the issues with that.

- It's just plain emotional travesty towards a girl that's spent so much of her time and energy as part of AKB48. Also known as the "heart over head" reason. Or the "third finger salute" reason.

- One might say it'd be a good, early test of how AKB48 and its associated popularity fares without Acchan, even whilst she's still around in AKB48 for the time being. The better test would be post-Tokyo Dome singles though, which is when we'll know the full extent of graduations and the like.

So in conclusion, 2a) (Acchan sits out of the elections but is still a part of the single) presents the most optimal option, but in reality, all options are riddled with complexities and issues that there is no one perfect solution to all this.

And let's not get started on the issues with these elections themselves as a statistical indicator of popularity. That's a whole can of worms unto itself.

 

I'm sure Acchan will be partaking in the elections and I'm sure she'll be number one. I'm not saying they'll rig the elections because I don't think that's necessary, her fans will mass vote for her like crazy since that's the last chance they have to put her in the first spot, hell, I've even heard oshis of other girls saying they'd vote for Acchan because of everything she's done for AKB or something.

There's no way Akimoto and company would pass up the chance to break all of their previous sales records for this election by including her in the event, especially because if she announces that she's not going to be there the interest level of a LOT of people would decrease, her oshis might just choose to not buy the single.

Another possible outcome is that she gets voted number one but after her acceptance speech or whatever she relinquishes her position to whoever is number 2 in a symbolic act or whatever, it could be plausible considering the flair for showmanship AKB and its management have.

In all honesty I would prefer that she stayed out of the elections because it doesn't make a lot of sense to me that she's participating in that when she probably won't be around for the rest of the promotion of that single and all the other events where it will be performed. They'll just have to use a different center, and it probably won't be a bump up in positions because it's never like that, but someone new (my money is on Kato Rena trololo) it's a hassle. But well, money is money and that's what the management is here for so I'm sure that will be the ultimate factor to define what course of action shall be taken.

 

^

Hmm, I see no reason why Acchan would sit out the elections tbh, even if it does perhpas get her the win it is a swansong for her which she has earnt over the years and it would be a good way to go out, as the top ranked idol (well for her hopefully anyway)

It also sort of works for the group to as they then have a single afterwards in which they can 'try out' perhpas the post Acchan plan and whoever might take her place, and the place of the person replacing Acchan and see how it works, even better perhpas that they might have the Janken too to act as a bit of a time buffer for the 'new regime' to settle in.....

Man does Acchan graduating make these elections even more exciting than they were already, even if she competes alot might come down to the places below her to all move up a little, more spice to what could be an interersting year!

 

@garnetjester:
I knew I forgot something! Big. Fat. Profits.

Damn how could I have missed that crucial point. Then again, it's late night and I'm sleepy. Thanks for reminding me - I might have a think about that point but I do agree that it is a factor behind why 1) might be chosen.

 

That would destroy that #2 by making her to be remembered as the one who got the top spot only by sympathy act for the real winner. I doubt that girl could be proud to lead this year senbatsu single.


More i think, it seems this year election is already ruined by her graduation. Her announcement make everything until Tokyo dome which is supposed to be her last concert is all about her completely.

 

I agree, it would be awful, but what isn't about the elections? It's just a show they put on to rake in the money without any consideration to the feelings of the girls, why would they care now?

And I'll stop right here because chewybacca is right, analyzing the elections as a whole is a completely different can of worms that doesn't need to be opened again.

 

hmm why aki-p make so much changes to the senbatsu...

now only got 16 senbatsu instead of 21... imagine old birds like akimoto sayaka and amina sato ranked as undergirls...

Maeda Atsuko -> She is expected to leave the group after the group's performance at the Tokyo Dome, but she will still be a senbatsu member in the group's 26th single

erm she is leaving and she still participate in senbatsu?? whats the point?? will she get much lesser votes since she leave or will get more for sympathy

 

honestly I've had headaches thinking about all the possibilities in this coming election.
im still processing the fact that shes graduating soon and hearing this election date just brings up more issues for me to process. in my opinion though if she is gonna be part of the elections she'll take no.1 spot thanks to all the "thank you" votes that fans are gonna be giving her, whatever comes after that though is something i don't want to miss.

 

I don't want Acchan to take part in the elections because I believe she should just be gracious and let someone else have their time since she's about done with the whole franchise already. Furthermore she would have to continue promoting the single which would really drag out her graduation. She should still be involved in the single though, maybe give her a solo as a B-side.

However, chances of her still taking part is high because of the big fat profits she'd bring in. Her fans would buy even more copies to vote for her now since it's their last chance to ever support her like this. I don't think management would easily let this opportunity slip by.

So in the event that Acchan doesn't take part in the election, I don't think Yuko would win still. We have to consider who Acchan fans will vote for now and I don't think they'd just vote for Yuko instead. I think it'll be split between Takamina and Tomochin. I'm even more confident of Tomochin doing better well now tbh. She's going to crack top 3 for sure. [rock]

I think having 60 girls is way too many though. It seems like management really wants the HKT girls to rank. I wonder if JKT girls are eligible for voting. (I hope not since they aren't technically J-Pop artists but they were heavily involved in the concerts so IDK).