AKB48 Sousenkyo Preliminary Results for NMB48

These are Prelim results consisting of voting for 1 day (technically 1 day 2 hours but no confirmation either way)
Note that prelim results are upto 100 but the actual rankings only go upto 80. Lotsa work left for NMB!

11. Kato Yuuka 12,396
15. Okita Ayaka 11,373
17. Suto Ririka 11,207
19. Shiroma Miru 11,084
21. Murase Sae 10,737
26. Ota Yuuri 8.965
33. Yoshida Akari 8,160
65. Kawakami Reina 5,212
79. Naiki Kokoro 4,618
81. Jo Eriko 4,421
93. Kushiro Rina 3,850
97. Shibuya Nagisa 3,799
100. Tanigawa Airi 3,531

Lotsa surprises for NMB. Let's discuss!
Points to discuss:
- Surprises
- Disappointments
- Who do you think will get in outside of this?
- Who do you think will drop off?

 

I was pretty satisfied with the results. Lots of nice surprises like Uuka, Jo, Rinacchi and Renapyon (although I don't know if Jo and Rinacchi will be able to sustain and make it into the final).

If Akarin can continue with this momentum, she has an outside shot of making senbatsu but realistically I think that Mirurun and Aapon have the best shot at top 16.

The only member that didn't rank that I can see making it in is Miorin. She usually sneaks in.

 

Even though NMB got the fewest members in as usual (of the first 4 sister groups), it still feels successful because of the many high-ranking members. I never expected to see Uuka that high, and I hope she can hold on to Undergirls or Next Girls. I recall hearing rumors that Aapon oshis weren't gearing up for this year, but I was pleasantly surprised. Also really happy for Saepii and Renapyon.

From the start I didn't think Akarin had a shot at senbatsu, but with this prelim result, maaaaayyyybe. She has almost definitely secured Undergirls though, which is already a huge jump from last year. There are tons of YouTube comments from fans saying that they'll vote for the first time. She has really capitalized on her Kouhaku result and motivated her YouTube fans to support her here as well (and convinced me to throw a vote her way too).

Pretty disappointing for Nagisa and Airi... Nagisa always starts slow but this is quite a shock given how high she's aiming. Some 2ch/matome comments suggested that a lot of people like her, but not that many have her as their #1 oshi, so the votes won't scale with her popularity. (Just look at me, I'm an NMB DD with an AKB oshi lol)

 

The not-#1oshi thing is always a problem but I really honestly its just that Nagisa's fans are lazy/unmotivated. I'm actually confident she'll still sneak into Future Girls this year but it just seems like her fans aren't up to the Sokuho grind (and believe me, it is painful to mass vote during 1 day for a variety of reasons)

For Rinacchi and Jo, I think their fans went in with the mindset of, hey, we might get into the actual thing or we might not but at least our girl got called during Sokuho and that will make her happy.

 

Really glad for Uuka, Saepii, and Akarin ranking so high + Kokoro, Renapyon, and Rinacchi ranking in.

This year's preliminary ranking is great compared to the previous years, but I hope this doesn't get the girls' expectations up only to let them be disappointed on the actual day.

 

I think most of them are being realistic about the difference between sokuho and final results (with a few exceptions)

 

I hope Renapyon made it to the real thing!!!! I also hope they'll make a senbatsu out of the prelims like last year with Boku wa Inai (i'm pretty sure the reason Rika made it in BwI's senbatsu was because she rnked in prelims)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Rika actually ranked in the real thing and you're right she most likely got into the senbatsu because she ranked-in plus she was quitting so this was a send-off for her.

 

13 name(With 4 below 80) for this year, compared to 14(With 6 below 80) for last year, is quantitatively worse but qualitatively better result for sokuho.

1. Pleasant surprise is, with NMB regular hitter out(Sayanee, Fuuchan, Shu, Reinyan), there are some regenerative movement to fill the gap.
2. However, for the top 16 in the actual result, NMB will still found obstacle. Last year saw a threshold of 40k(3k lower than 2015), and by looking at Aapon who secured same 11k votes in 2016 prelim, she only manage to score 29k in actual result. Akari need more than her YT subscriber to breach senbatsu. Well, it applies to everyone too tbf.
3. As for the lower bracket, 13k is the last year threshold of top 80(And always increased year to year). So basically everyone isn't safe and have to keep up voting, with Renapyon below has to do more than 100% of sokuho votes or risk dropped off. Miorin has it worse not only because she isn't ranked in sokuho, but also because last year, she is within it.

And with Miorin included, that's 14 girls from NMB with real chance to actually rank this year. I feel bad for being skeptic.

 

Just like I did in Akarin's thread, but for all girls - let's estimate results using last year as a basis ^^;

Shiroma Miru 48000
Kato Yuuka 46500
Yoshida Akari 46000
Murase Sae 29000
Okita Ayaka 29000
Sutou Ririka 27000
Shibuya Nagisa 25000
Ota Yuuri 23000

Other members did not rank, so estimation is not possible.

Spoiler: Calculations of above

>>> 29983 * 11084 / 6929
47962.41477846731
>>> 12371 * 12396 / 3299
46484.060624431644
>>> 13512 * 8160 / 2393
46075.18595904722
>>> 29517 * 11373 / 11426
29380.084106423947
>>> 10951 * 10737 / 4046
29061.020019772615
>>> 21559 * 11207 / 9136
26446.11569614711
>>> 19140 * 3799 / 2970
24482.444444444445
>>> 19534 * 8965 / 7635
22936.779305828422

Only Yuuka, Akari and a bit Miru (edit: OK, Sae too, but she ends up lower anyway) are getting considerable vote increases - other girls didn't get a boost yet. With Miru and Akari having their own reasons for getting more votes (like YouTube), either Sayanee voters are not participating or still thinking, whom to vote for.

Things aren't that good for now.

---

There is a clear top3 indicated, I would say. With 16th place in both preliminary results moving from 11146 to 11363 votes (!) there is a shot at senbatsu for all of them, if the barrier would still stay at around 40000. That would be an excellent replacement for Yuki and if Hinata will manage to collect necessary votes, that's going to be a very good and cute senbatsu with Yuka considerably secure in it (I don't care for many members at the top, so if there were Mayu, Akari, Miru, Hinata and Yuka - I couldn't add anyone else, as no other girl has any real chances now). If only songs allowed for appreciation, I have lost faith and interest in both PVs and live performances a long time ago, really, I don't think I have seen anything since Tsubasa wa Iranai... I'm not even bothered with NnM

 

I'm not sure I agree with using ratios to gauge final vote totals. I mean, there's really no other metric to use but there are a lot of factors that come into play and vote totals don't really grow in a linear fashion. For some girls, this might be a one time shot by their fans to get a rankin and they will have run out afterwards. For example, with that logic, the NGT girls will have 1 billion votes or something at the end of the day.

 

For NGT48 this wouldn't work from just one fact: there is no such data This only shows that if fans were going to vote like in last year, three Nambas would be very close to senbatsu - so indeed this chance might get some people fired up. And likewise for rivals, that also got high initial votes. A lot might depend on ability to gather and inspire fresh blood, as pockets have a limited depth (if not, previous years wouldn't have been this predictable).

 

My point is whether or not this has ever had predictive value in previous years. Using only one year's worth as a sample doesn't tell me anything other than if everything worked linearly exactly as last year this would happen.

 

Take this from another side: is there any indication that fans voted differently on the first day in this year? Also where did these 110 thousands votes of Sayaka go or will go, if they are not visible in the results so far?

 

Sayaka's votes will disappear because why would her fans go out and explicitly buy votes to vote for other girls? If they have 2-oshi then they vote for those or they don't bother since they don't feel as motivated as with Sayaka.

And I'm sorry, you cannot prove a negative so the onus is on you to prove to me that this has predictive value.

 

Seriously, I can't give you exact values now, what else could be verifiable? Assumptions are simple, as you can see, they cover only few factors - it's better to work with these numbers than with opinions. You can always provide a different way of estimation - I did not touch things like Kouhaku or casuals likely to miss first day of voting as not being in hurry or just in track with current events, for example.

 

Thrilled for Renapyon!! Omg queen udon incoming!!!!

Really surprised bout Kokochan, Rinacchi and Jo.

I really hope all 13 of them make it in the end. A senbatsu with this 13 + Sayanee, Miorin & Fuuchan would be great. Oh and add ZEUS and Aayan too.