Coronavirus (COVID-19) thread

Discussion in 'The STAGE48 Lobby' started by MondyofAus, Feb 21, 2020.

  1. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    English-language news report from Japan about 3 new cases of Covid-19, all 3 people attended a concert in Osaka on 2/15:
    https://www.tellerreport.com/life/2...-same-osaka-about-100-people-.HJMIubpvVL.html
     
  2. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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  3. ShaiHH

    ShaiHH Kenkyuusei

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    I follow several small groups, all of them are performing as usual. I'd guess that these small groups don't have the financial reserves to not play a venue they already booked. So things will have to get worse first, before they start cancelling too.
     
  4. dutchie

    dutchie Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Assuming they have take out insurance, the insurance won't pay out if they decide to cancel themselves, so in that case they kinda have no option as to wait till the authorities step in and order a ban (and even then it's most likely insurance companies will not pay (disaster clause))
     
  5. Reveen

    Reveen Upcoming Girls

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    That's quite possible. This months Osaka sumo tournament is going ahead but with no audience in attendance. Reportedly they will have to issue $10m in ticket refunds but if they had cancelled entirely they would have lost $6m in tv revenue also.
     
  6. ShaiHH

    ShaiHH Kenkyuusei

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    I doubt the super small groups, that are happy to perform for 20-100 people, have any kind of insurance. Would eat all their profits.
     
  7. MondyofAus

    MondyofAus Kenkyuusei

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    The Pandemic has officially begun. There are many, many people walking around out there right now who have no idea they're infected, especially in Japan and South Korea. I hope the members stay safe. Their occupation makes them vulnerable, especially in that cramped theatre.
     
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  8. hiroto

    hiroto Upcoming Girls

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    Watching how things events are going.

    Do you think they will cancel Miichan's graduation concert? :(
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
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  9. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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  10. dutchie

    dutchie Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    I'm going to throw the old Wikipedia annotation in here: Citation needed.

    Well, Miichan seemed worried about that in a recent tweet, also expressing the sentiment that she regret not being able to interact with fans the last months of her being in AKB48

    And I hate to say it, it's a definite possibility and I feel bad for those foreign fans that booked a plane ticket for Japan to be able to attend.
    Btw, I'm pretty sure they won't so much cancel as postpone it, they re-scheduled Yuko's graduation as well (and ok, Miichan is'nt Yuko, but I think they won't let the chance for an epic 1st gen reunion send-off concert go to waste)
    We'll have to wait till around the 15th or 20th to know for sure
     
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2020
  11. MondyofAus

    MondyofAus Kenkyuusei

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    COVID-19 has a incubation period of 14+ days with little to no symptoms:

    https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-incubation-period-27-days/

    The article says 27 days but the exact number has been bouncing around for weeks as we've learned more and more. In any event, it's a long incubation window, and it has those who know better (W.H.O) very concerned.
     
  12. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    BBC TV here in the UK had a special show tonight in which viewers could submit questions to Fergus Walsh, the Medical Correspondent for BBC News. One question was "Is it possible to be a carrier of the virus but not actually get it and display symptoms?" His answer was "yes" and they could be "shedding the virus and potentially infecting other people" but those who are coughing and sneezing are not surprisingly most at risk from infecting others.

    The video is probably not viewable outside the UK without a VPN but here's the link to it and the question is asked at 8:10:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000g80s/
     
  13. theobserver

    theobserver Upcoming Girls

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    Sorry to burst your bubble but the article quoted in that piece (from MedRxiv) is non-peer reviewed and even the database has asked for it not to be used for any media publications.
    Let's now read from more credible sources (like the NEJM for example):
    - its free access: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 (published Feb 28th)
    - pretty much the largest case review study so far. There is much more to learn
    - incubation period is two to seven days (median of 4 days). Note: incubation period = time from virus exposure to development of symptoms

    What the general public are fearful about (but don't know how to express) is the unseen unknown. "Is the person next to me going to give me something that will harm me"?
    - at present, we still are awaiting further data about carriage period, latency and infectivity. Learning more about it day by day

    ====

    Yes I am a medical professional. And I have to say that half my work currently is providing education and trying to reduce fear/panic
    (of course when this virus becomes the new normal, there will be more work for me)

    What has griped me in recent days is how people seem to think that this virus is going to kill us all (when it doesn't)
    And forget that there are other more common diseases out there which does kill (and it does)
    Forcing an over-reaction leading to unfortunate racism, discrimination, social and economic chaos. But hey, humans are irrational. What's new?

    Every year there is a new strain of Influenza virus (which causes lots of illness and also death esp for the old and vulnerable)
    Yet I do not see the hysteria that is going around the world. My brain just goes WTF?

    Common sense please
    - mask only if you have symptoms (sniffles, cough)
    - don't cough and sneeze into open air and certainly not towards people
    - and if you have symptoms. Bloody hell, keep yourself away from crowds anyway
    - handwashing. You don't need alcohol hand-sanitizes. Water and soap with good technique works great: https://www.who.int/gpsc/clean_hands_protection/en/
    - if you have symptoms and feel very sick. Seek medical attention and if you might have a SARS-CoV2 exposure risk, please call ahead for instructions

    Happy to do an AMA here. I'll try my best to give as much of a localized answer as every country's context is different
    (and try steer clear from political discussions. Inevitable as it is but lets do our best)
     
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  14. EinhanderX

    EinhanderX Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Just be prepared about ticket refund if you have pre-ordered it like Churi fans missing their epic 2nd gen reunion did.
     
  15. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Japanese-language report today from BIGLOBE about how major venues such as Tokyo Big Sight and Makuhari Messe are being affected by event cancellations into April (including AnimeJapan 2020):

    https://news.biglobe.ne.jp/domestic/0303/srb_200303_2921186019.html

    A grief with the new corona "Tokyo Big Sight" Official HP Almost blank abnormal situation

    Tokyo Big Sight announced on the 2nd that 24 events scheduled to be held from March to April at the same venue and TFT building were canceled and postponed due to the effect of the new coronavirus.

    Last year, when there were about 60 events, the event page for the facility was in a strange state of "almost blank."

    ■ "There is no applicable event"

    The sacred place of the event representing East Japan is ruined. At this time of the year, exciting events such as "AnimeJapan2020" and "Tokyo Motorcycle Show" and large joint events for job-hunting students are exciting. Notation.

    Only the words "My Navigator Job Expo" held on March 20 are lined up, reminding people of the threat of coronavirus.

    ■ Same for Makuhari Messe

    This situation is not limited to Tokyo Big Sight. The same applies to the event calendar page of the event site "Makuhari Messe", which is a perfect match with Big Sight.

    The page was highlighted with the words "postponed" and "cancelled", and it was decided that about 25 events would be postponed.

    ■ I mourn from the eventer

    The consequences are nothing more than a "struggle" for the event planner and organizer. An eventer man who is subscribing to subculture events such as animation and cosplay from the standpoint of freelance says, `` Because the event was canceled, all the booth plans of the client who was in charge were different. '' be discouraged.

    "All construction staff, companions, cosplayers, and staff around the stage have been cancelled. Many of the individuals have been requesting it individually, and it's uncomfortable, but unfortunately it's the hardest thing to do without compensation, including me." did.

    ■ Affects future events

    He also has an event plan for April and beyond. "Even if the plan is good, the situation is shaking because we do or do not do it. If we go to the last minute and if it is canceled after all according to the national policy, it is all water bubbles. I can't do it, "she said.

    On the other hand, "In the meantime, there was an event that could be held. It took a lot of trouble, such as taking measures to disinfect bacteria firmly, disinfecting masks, disinfecting door knobs and desks every time in a short time, but clients and performers "Thank you for your success in the midst of the dark news," he said.

    When the year changes and Golden Week begins, the busy season of another big event comes. I just hope that the new coronavirus will converge by then.
     
  16. rka

    rka Future Girls Stage48 Donor

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    I agree with almost anything, but comparisons to Influenza are not really helping here. First, there is a vaccine for Influenza. Even though it does not hit accurately every season, it does grant a (varying) bit of protection for the risk groups against the common seasonal strains.
    A typical influenza strain's fatality rates is 0.05 to 0.1%. And while we do not see the full picture of nCoV-19 because of the many silent infections, we can assess one thing: If the current ratio between deaths and confirmed cases is about 2%, in order to reach a typical influenza fatality rate, there must be 20-40 fold more infections of which are currently reported. This would mean 2 - 3 million cases as of now, which we currently do not see unless there is severe under reporting.
    Prof. Drosten, virologist at the Charite Hospital in Berlin, said yesterday, the most likely fatality rate of nCoV-19 is within 0.3 and 0.7%, and he estimated that between 60-70% of the entire german population would be infected within the next year. That would translate into roughly 200,000 deaths in Germany alone. In comparison, the worst influenza death toll in recent years was about 25,000 in a single season.
    So, saying that "Influenza is as dangerous if not more dangerous" does not really fit with even the most conservative estimates.
     
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  17. theobserver

    theobserver Upcoming Girls

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    Good points and good observation.

    TLDR:

    This US based Infectious Disease specialist sums it up well
    Infectious Disease Doctor: What Does (and Doesn't) Scare Me About Coronavirus

    I am only echoing the same below
    To make it less technical and because numbers only tell you as much
    I am not scared of this virus because of what we already know of Coronaviruses. For me its like another day at the office. I won't be thinking "Am I going to die?"
    - yes, please think of your healthcare professionals. We are not superhuman. I want to go home each night to oogle Sakura and Juri
    - perhaps its also because I am in a country where the public health system does work (like Germany too)
    - Coronaviruses as a family exist in circulation already. For eg. our viral PCR testing panel (if requested) also includes Coronavirus strains even before SARS-CoV2 emerged
    - in most people it causes a bad cold. If you don't get a secondary bacterial chest infection, probably drink chicken soup at home and takes up a week to get better
    - its the old, frail and comorbid with chronic illnesses that we have to worry about. And those are the ones we will see in hospital. Always has and always will be

    I will lose my shit if it was something like Ebola (like what the movie Outbreak in 1995 was like). Those were mortality rates of up to 50%
    Will probably refuse to work without full Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and decontamination facilities.
    Even so, I will probably ensure my life insurance is up to date etc

    Bust another myth about Coronavirus (not SARS-CoV2): it is NOT some sort of new virus that we have never seen before that we know absolutely nothing about.
    - but I can't vouch for all heath systems around the world of course

    ==============================
    For further discussion, read further

    Ah yes. We have vaccines for Flu yes and change them every year. Thank God for that
    To get into specifics our cumulative herd immunity + positive effects of collective hygiene, sanitation etc help mitigate endemic Influenza as well.
    - as with any new strain that humans have to adapt to, the 1st year is probably going to be the worse. So when we look back years from now, the trend will be on the improve
    - for now we have to bear with mass hysteria but at least at the end of it, people hopefully be more conscious about hygiene, personal conduct, not dealing with exotic animals, etc
    - infectious diseases have always been with us throughout human history

    if H1N1 was any guide, that's like 20-40% globally (WHO) estimated to have had exposure
    - now you see why I mentioned "new normal"
    - H1N1 is now a seasonal influenza virus strain globally
    - still infects and still kills people btw. But its not hot news anymore

    Regarding seasonal mortality rates from Flu, I'll quote this large 2018 Lancet paper (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5935243/)
    - Note: Lancet as a medical journal is like in the top 5 globally. So its impact factor is big
    - their conclusion was like 300-650,000 death globally. The rate differs by age group (the most in >75) and by country as well

    Now lets look at the mortality rates. I'll keep it short
    - the ball park quoted mortality rates for COVID-19 has ranged from 0.3-0.7% as you have quoted to about 2-3% from China's early experience
    - then you have to look at who actually died in any of these ranges. As we increasingly know, its the old and co-morbid with other chronic illnesses (nothing new here)
    - many other factors might affect it too like the availability and standards of healthcare. I might feel more sorry for you if you are Iranian (unhelpful public policies, under-developed healthcare, etc)
    - hence you can't actually project 0.3-0.7% or even 3% to the projected exposure rate of the total German population (approx 82-83 mil)

    the problem with mass virus fear is that everyone who feels sick will now come to us thinking they have Covid-19
    many of that will include Common Colds and Influenza already in circulation
    not to mention stock standard lung infection (pneumonia), asthma, COPD/Emphysema which happens commonly daily
    Note: All of those conditions share the same symptoms with Covid-19
    - some will live and some will die. some die quick and some die slowly
    - try picking out who to test for SARS-CoV2 !

    =========

    You might ask me so what are actually your chance of dying?
    - that really depends on a lot of things as I was trying to point towards. Our audience are likely young and healthy, hence likely no
    - if you are above 70, hardly able to get out of the house and with pre-existing chronic illness? Then yup, stay away from anyone sick at all costs. Get help really quick at sign of trouble (which they do anyway)

    But what am I seeing with all these cleanouts of groceries, masks, alcohol sanitizers?
    - selfish people taking resources they don't need, away from people who actually need it
    - maybe its because they don't know but its also because they don't care

    The funniest meme i have come across so far:
    "Coronavirus kill a few, every gets scared and want to buy a mask
    but
    HIV/AIDS kills so many more, yet no one wants to wear a condom
    "

    I hope that sums up to you how I am feeling
    So much work typing this! Its so much easier to stick you on oxygen, give you some IV fluids and antibiotics!
    (but I am happy to do so either way :blush:. Good night, tomorrow will be another day. Yup, a new day will start)
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2020
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  18. dutchie

    dutchie Stage48 Moderator Staff Member Stage48 Moderator

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    Case in point ... Steve Wozniak (of long long past apple II fame) claimed on twitter that he thought he was the first Corona patient in the US ... well, he was not, just like he hasn't been relevant to Apple since about .... 1984!

    euh, well, breathing doesn't get much less enjoyable from wearing a face mask .... sex however (for male) ... ;)

    There was a news item here in he Netherlands about a smallpox outbreak in the '50s in Tilburg, where people were quarantined in a local convent and families split up.
    I thought the comparison was severely flawed as smallpox had a know fatality rate of about 30%
    But I guess it was good for the ratings
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2020
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  19. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    EntaMega is reporting that the STU48 ship performances in Takamatsu Port on 3/18 & 19 are planned to go ahead as scheduled:
    https://entamega.com/33611

    As for official Coronavirus precautions for the shows, these are simply stated as follows: "If you have symptoms such as coughing or sneezing, be sure to wear a mask. In this case, cover your mouth and nose with a handkerchief or tissue, etc., and turn your eyes away from people."
     
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  20. David61

    David61 Upcoming Girls Stage48 Donor

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    English-language report (with short video) from NHK World on the Coronavirus infections among attendees at live concert venues in Osaka last month - there's now a second venue involved with a total of 15 people infected:

    https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200305_11/

     

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