[DISCUSSION] Will Nogizaka46 be able to surpass AKB48?

I guess it's been a while since Nogizaka46 was established, but from how their progress has been so far...

Do they have what it takes to surpass AKB48 in the near future??

With all these new TV shows, MV's, game shows etc., it's obvious that they're also, in a way, following in the footsteps of AKB, even though the reason for their creation was to be rivals. But with the new production of NOGIBINGO, it's clear that the same kind of steps are being used to gain popularity. [think]

However, it's because they are branded as their official rivals, that they seperate themselves from the rest of the 48 Groups. Out of all the other sister groups, I think Nogi has the best chance of truly rivaling the popularity of AKB. [rock]

But of course, time also plays a big factor. It took them about 5 years to get to where they are, I wouldn't be surprised if they take longer. But the thing is, they started off with the popularity of AKB, something that they themselves never had in the beginning.

If they really follow in the same footsteps, they may not have the "freshness" that they need to beat AKB. I think what they really need is uniqueness, and in my opinion, they may just have that, or at least something different enough to compete with them. [smoke]

 

I think Nogi needs some sister groups to give them more of a fighting chance against AKB. AKB has SKE, NMB, HKT, and technically overseas JKT and SNH on their side. What if Aki-p allowed Nogi to participate in the Sousenkyo? I would like that.

 

You really love opening threads. ...and I really hate swooping down on you almost every time, but we've had quite a few of these "Can x surpass y" threads recently.

• Which AKB48 sister group can be as successful as AKB48?
• Can any groups threaten AKB?
• What SKE48 needs to reach AKB48 level?

Is this thread particularly different and dealing with something that we can't discuss in the first or second thread? Am I being overly nitpicky here?

 

LOLOL alright you caught me.

I dunno, but I guess I just have a lot questions that need perspectives to them and judging by your reply, I'm probably just looking in the wrong place.

BUT LOOK!! I wasn't copying another topic!!
Come on, this one's on Nogi46 though!! Please!! Onegai~!!

But then again, I guess your right about the first 2 topics...

 

I think this thread have merit to stay.

About the question itself, I wrote an essay a while ago that pretty much address this question lol. Plz do read it if you are interested~

In a nutshell, I think it will be hard for Ngzk to compete against 48 families becuz:
1. They a lack theatre or a venue for regular performances,
2. Lack of regional base (SKE in Sakae, Nagoya; NMB in Namba, Osaka, etc.)
3. Lack of cross-promotional structure. 48 groups have common TV programs (e.g. AKBingo, Majisuka Gakuen), common events (e.g. SSK, Request Hours), common HS events (AKB's HS event), & common social media (Google+). Ngzk now sort of have one in the new HKTxNgzk show, but not much else rly.
4. Much less resources. E.g. most 48 groups have many TV programs, while Ngzk for the most part only have NogiDoko (+ the recent NOGIBINGO, but that is only going to last 12 episode I believe unless extended).
5. Much less members. Ngzk for most of it existence only have 32 members (with recently added 2nd gen now its 45) while AKB have 84 current members including kks, & their singles include sister groups which for the most part have just as much members.

So all in all it will be rly hard for Ngzk to compete against 48 groups I think, but not impossible imo. In fact, the essay I mentioned mentioned several things that I think should be done in order for Ngzk to achieve even greater growth. Once again, please do read it if you are interested~

 

If they keep doing what they've been doing so far and so does AKB48, well, no. I feel like N46's strategy is trying to take the advantages from AKB48's popularity to do their own thing. Of course taking away the "official rival" title and "produced by Aki P" feature, N46 would be still an amazing group but I doubt they could even reach half of their current sales number.

N46 surpassed AKB48 already in term of talented members, unique style and musical diversity, however not by far to be honest, just slightly recognizable if you spend some time to observe them. So in term of sales or popularity, unless AKB and other 48 groups get screwed up really bad by Aki P, N46 got almost zero chance. But when AKB goes down, it would be possible for N46 to fall as well since the crowd would probably shift their attention to some other distinctive groups rather than something 48' related.

In short, I can't think of any possible scenario in which N46 rises without the fall of AKB's while the fall of AKB will pretty much lead to the fall of whole 48' family including N46. It's like going back to the past and kill yourself, you would stuck in a paradox...

 

Thanks rust, and I'm not just saying this, but I read a bit of your essay and it even though it should've been obvious to me, you gave me the answers that I was actually looking for. [rock]

But you definitely right about one thing, is that having a theater makes a big difference in this kind of industry. I think because they're technically not part of the 48 Groups, they don't have the same structure as the rest of them.

 

I think they could surpass AKB in 2 or 3 years. But for that to happen, AKB48 must make a big decline. I think Aki-p will not let Nogizaka go through smoothly unless AKB48 is doing reall bad. Nogizaka girls are very talented and they each have great and different personalities, so I think they will attract everyone in Japan, but they must be split completely from AKB to be able to surpass them. People must have to stop thinking about AKB when they thinka bout Nogizaka [aup]

 

Nogizaka46 needs tools to make the members closer to their fans. I don't think handshake is enough for this.

Also, do they have concert, not counting 16 principal? Something we can recall from.

But from what i see, the members they got have the potential to reach AKB level.

Maiyan, nanamin, ikuchan, reika and ikoma are quite unique.

I feel an improvement in Nogizaka exposure nowadays. They are present for many variety show, and get noticed more and more. It is safe to say they are on the right track, and not stagnating.

 

There's no need for nogizaka to surpass akb. They just need to walk on their on pathway. No need to imitate akb (NOGIBINGO). No need that "akb's official rival" title. I hope someday, nogizaka will be able to stand on their feet without any shadow of AKB. Well, I know it's hard since Nogizaka's creator is Aki-P. It's okay if they won't be able to surpass AKB. As long as they work hard, fans will always appreciate them.

 

Sales-wise? No, never.

Their sales are much better than HKTs and are a bit behind NMBs... they're pretty far off from SKE and AKB. The sales are impressive for the minuscule amount of promotion that they receive and also the fact they have less members to sell off.

Despite the impressive CD sales, their actual status in the entertainment industry is fairly low. Just recently you've seen them on more mainstream TV shows and music festivals, but oftentimes their appearance will be in-lieu of an AKB/AKS related presence.

Nogizaka seems to be more vectored to their craft. Like Terry Ito would say, there are three factors to an idol: Song, Dance, and Looks. They focus more on that than being jacks of all trades.

AKB and their sister groups also tap into those three factors, but it's not the "be all, end all" for them. They stretch themselves as wide as possible... from Variety, Radio Shows, Musicals, Plays, TV personalities, the random clubs that they have, etc. They oversaturate the market with their presence.

Unlike America, Japan doesn't seem to mind it as much when things are pushed down their throat. While people outside of Japan would protest the overabundance of AKB in the market, people seem to go along for the ride here and end up enjoying it.

Nogizaka doesn't put themselves out there as much. You don't see the members in too many outside activities, there aren't very many radio shows or other media outlets where you can see them. You won't see risqué photo shoots, etc. etc.

They seem to fit into the more traditional idol or artist mold. Because of that, there really shouldn't be the need for them to surpass AKB--they're almost a completely different product.

 

Sasuga OSR48-san. I do hope that Nogizaka will become who they really are, not imitate any other 48G. Yes it is hard to say that since Aki-P was the creator of Nogizaka, but that's right, as long as they work hard, become who they really are, just be themselves, Nogizaka shall have a bright future as a "unique" idol group from any other idol group available. About imitate NogiBingo, I think it's fine, it just giving them an experience of what their rival (AKB) had ever experienced. You know what they say, "Experiences makes a great Teacher"

P.S: Anyway, OSR48-san, I sent you some message both here and on your tumblr, please check it out if you have time. Thanks