Discussion in 'General NMB48 Discussion' started by Mr Waffle, Dec 7, 2010.
Sentai as in 選対 (election committee) not Seitanin (Birthday Committee) lol
I honestly don't even know what a Namba 7 looks like right now (Shu )
Is it... Sayaka, Miru, Fuu, Yuuri, Nagisa, Riripon, Aayan? Other than Akarin (which I find iffy but she has the youtube thing) I don't think there is a single member out there right now that can overtake anyone from this group in the medium term.
The permanently at the back members (but have never ever been moved off) like Airi, Uuka and Saepii are a good barometer for new senbatsu. Is the member doing better than any of them in handshakes, SNS or other work? If the answer is yes, then the member is a surefire senbatsu member. If no, there needs to be extenuating circumstances (like Lemon's mainstream appeal, Momoka's popularity with girls or trying to build up next-gen in general like Azusa/Chihhi)
Pretty much this except the member I personally find iffy is Aayan. They're really trying to make her happen but she's so random and I don't usually like airdrops unless I really like the girl so shrugs.
Anyway /NOTHING AGAINST CHIHI BUT/ I feel like the attempt to make her some new up and coming girl so funny because girl has been around for a while already and if she hasn't happened yet she's unlikely to happen ever, especially since she's only gonna get older and dustier and wotas are mostly just into young fresh blood. IDEK what exactly it is that she does. The thing is 4th gen definitely has to take on a more senior role by now and the only ones who are on the verge of surpassing the barometers are Jo and Yamarina. Rachel and Megumin are kinda getting there so I would chose the two if we are really lacking in senbatsu members and want more representation from 4th gen.
That said, the actual new up and coming IT girl is definitely ZEUS (who is personally up there in my NMB 7 over Aayan). If we stretch the definition a little I guess we can include Coco and Sararan but even the two of them feel a little too senior already. Coco might be able to wiggle her way in by acting as a senior member but she has definitely yet to surpass Airi/Saeppi/Uuka yet so putting her in might be a little unconvincing.
Sadly none of the Draft 2 members really has it imo, especially since Nanami f*ed right out of NMB. Her and Yuzuha were a great duo but sadly got side stepped probably cause it's more economical to just focus on one Aayan. Yuzuha alone can't make it imo. I love Muranaka but she's a little too old and also dropping hints like she's graduating so >.<
As for 5th gen I really like the Kojirin but she's also kind of old, but I think they could pass her off as a senior skilled member since apparently her dancing has got most of her senpais shook. Rei is imo the best choice for the new up and coming member.
So to conclude I would categorize the girls as such
LOCKS: Sayanee Mirurun Fuuchan Nagisa Riripon Yuuri Akarin Airi Saeppi Uuka
VETS: (Momoka Miorin) Aapon Rinacchi Jo Yamarina Coco Rachel Megumin Kojirin
NEW: Zeus Aayan Rei Sararan
Management seems hellbent on making her happen but results need to be in line with the push and she's doing ok for someone who has her amount of push. I mean, if you get to basically center a single, get a solo in a concert, get featured everywhere with senbatsu all the time, you had better be selling out 2 slots in handshake events. What happens next is what will determine her future. If her sales slow down, management might decrease the push (they never admit defeat though, look at Jo and how long that took) so its really up to her and to the fans that she's gained recently to produce results for her to reinforce management's trust in her.
OMFG THIS! lmfao what happened to Jo in her first run as an NMB member was still the funniest train wreck to me ever. Well at least she's shining really brightly now.
Who is Zeus?
omfg Azusa :x you mean people don't call her that?
I thought Zeus was an inside joke that @joooooooooe came up with
I've never heard her be called Zeus, ever. Then again, I haven't seen @joooooooooe around here in a while.
Megumin and Rachel aren't happening. Rachel has the Doyoubi wa Dameyo regular slot but that was given to her around the time she was getting a mini-push as a comedy character but for whatever reason (whether its her fault or not is debatable) her push has vanished to the point where KKS get better stage positions than her.
I don't believe in getting a push ever being "too late" but Chihhi has been "will get pushed next single" status forever now. Now that she's finally made senbatsu its make or break for her now (I think I've been saying this for 2 years now).
I think we can split current NMB into a bunch of tiers:
LOL: Yamamoto Sayaka
LOCKS: Miru, Fuu, Yuuri, Riripon, Nagisa, (Aayan), Akarin
REGULARS: Airi, Saepii, Uuka, Aapon
IN LINE: Kokochan, Azusa, Jo
BARELY SENBATSU: Rinacchi, Chihhi
MAINSTREAM APPEAL: Momoka, Lemon
FORMER SENBATSU: Konomin, Emichi
Of course there are a couple of tiers inside "the rest" but I think if anyone's getting dropped, Rinacchi is first in line which makes the remaining senbatsu 16 members. If they want to fit Momoka and Lemon back in, I think Chihhi gets the axe and then maybe someone from the Airi/Uuka/Aapon line finally gets dropped. If they want to give a push to D2, 5th gen, Naru/Moka then it becomes really complicated.
Isn't it because she got injured or something? IDK but I agree that it seems over for her for now. She may suddenly rise from the ashes the way Aapon did tho.
I mostly agree with you senpai. Momoka and Lemon could be in or not it really doesn't matter to them (reason why I bracketed them in mine). Of the current senbatsu, Rinacchi and Chihhi are definitely first to go but I think Kokochan isn't on stable ground herself. I'm just not too sure who would get cut first of the three. The thing is the three can't exactly be the new girl anymore so I personally think it would only make sense to include them if they take on something like a senpai role. As such, I give Rinacchi a pass since she's captain.
Also I'm really hoping they went crazy with that Aayan push just because they promised it would be a Sayanee center for the 16th single and they thought it would be funny to have someone with practically the same name take on the sorta center position. I mean she's cute but better to include another 5th gen and let them grow organically.
We don't really know what happened with Rachel but she, err, ballooned quite a bit which caused management to drop her from stages. She's only ever appeared in her birthday stage and that one M stage in the past year.
Aayan is getting the gori-push no doubt. She's in 2 consecutive AKB senbatsu! Its only a matter of time until she gets an official single center (cue FuuMiruYuuri fans wailing).
Based on sales, it should be Kokochan > Azusa > Jo but at that level, management preference does play a role. Case in point, it looks like Shu's replacement in the Niji no Tsukurikata unit is Jo as seen in the Shu concert. Jo also regularly gets called for senbatsu work so the management preference for her is clearly still there.
I was surprised anyone else called out to DJ Zeus other than Joe here lolll.
If management is going to be as stubborn with the Aayan push as they were (or are?) with the Jo one, this gori push will become excruciating. Not that I see some merit in pushing the Second Yamamoto. She's definitely not a bad performer for her age. But management has the bad habit of going into tunnel vision when they have found a new favourite and that's to the detriment of all the other 5th gens (not to speak of the D2s). And we all know how that ends from the Aika and 4th gen experience.
As for senbatsu as a whole, it is now so much thinned out that they either can easily go back to a 16-nin format or put some more randoms into it (Naru for senbatsu 2017!). If it matters one way or the other in the grand scheme of things is the question. I rather worry the quality of the next song than about a senbatsu whose make-up is pretty much "anything goes" at this point.
Keicchi yesterday and Shu today... my heart can't take it
Is there something going on with Naru cause I've never really thought bout her in a long time.
They haven't really had a Jo-level gori-push since, well, Jo. They pushed Aika hard at first but quickly gave up because of the AKB KKS push. Nagisa took her place but they backed off after the initial burst. They pushed Azusa a bit after Nana left but quickly gave up. Heck they calmed down on the Riripon push after Durian Shounen. It remains to be seen whether they will go on a sustained push for Aayan but the signs are there. If they take the AKB route of being desperate for headlines, pushing Aayan to the moon would accomplish this I guess.
She's always been on the periphery of senbatsu as someone who does "ok" but never great but never at the bottom either. She's getting up there so if there is ever a time to push her its now. Same with Moka except Moka is younger.
Here's our first glimpse at a 16-nin lineup post-grad though without Aayan & Miru (why does it seem she's never at anything anymore?) and give or take a Lemon. So we're plus Naru and Enoki.
Hm i like it. Replace Chihi with Miru and we are good to go!
@CutePanda thanks for posting, nice to see Ibiza Girl again