Single Nogizaka46 25th [Shiawase no Hogoshoku] (2020/03/25)

I quite sure this week is round second. The first round's result is in this tweet https://twitter.com/lovefiaa/status/1225283797110837249. Still was 0 sales as usual first week Nogi sales .

 

I believe Kiichan would still be in senbatsu in 26th but her Fukujin chances is getting less and lesser.

 

But she already got one in Sing Out, it didn't seem it was for a special occasion. So I guess she still has chances of being Fukujin again.

 

still chances are there it's better than no chance at all, among 2ki i think she's the who one improved a lot.

 

But Kii's rivals in senbatsu spot pose better numbers than her so far.

There's Kakehashi with easy 30 slot sold out. In Nogi ; If a member sold out her slot in ease that's 90% guarantee in senbatsu.

There are only a few instances that a member does that and sent off in Under Like Kubo Shiori in Kaerimichi.
But that easy 30 slot sold out is only good to make the senbatsu but not a criteria for Fukujin and Front row.

For Example ; Miona is in frontrow in SingOut and Yoake eventho her Numbers is lil bit slower than Shiori ; Ume ; Yoda and Mizuki. Momoko is also similar ; Girl is in frontrow in SingOut altho Ume and Shiori have a lil bit faster sales.

 

If so, then Kii does have chances to be in Fukujin again I mean as long as her sales don't go decreasing then she's just fine.
And altough management has given more chances to 3ki than 2ki I think there will be a moment where more 2ki will be in senbatsu more frequently, I do think management consider a bit the seniority in the group. Having said that I think by the moment (almost) all of 1ki members have graduated, members like Kii, Ayane, Ranze and Miria will get a guaranteed spot in senbatsu if they're still in the group.

 

By the next single we have Asuka, Ikuta, Hori, Matsumura, Takayama, and Manatsu. That is already half if Fukujin is 12 members on average. Sakura, Yamashita, Yoda, Kaki, I think these girls are sure in for Fukujin. Then there's Umezawa, Kubo, Momoko, Ayame. Kakehashi I think will debut 3rd row because that's an already crowded candidate for Fukujin.

So yeah Kitano's chance for Fukujin is very slim but I think that's expected and only fair if you look at the other girls' results. The competition for Senbatsu position is already tough even after so many 1s gen graduates. Tamura looks strong, Seimiya, Kanagawa. Hayakawa is climbing slowly. Iwamoto will keep on coming back even if they relegate her to UG after this (though I bet she will stay). That's why it is already a miracle for Rena and Junna to be called. No offense to them and to their fans but that's reality.

We're still very early in 2020, more graduation will come for sure. The opportunity to enter Senbatsu will open up a bit more. If you look at the bigger picture, 3rd row isn't that bad.

Any prediction for UG center?

 

I'm pretty sure it'll be Ayame.

 

Counting kakehashi in, then there likely 4 more spots they will fight for the usual 21 members format.
Still I believe kii chan wont affect on her chance so that there are three left.
Just assumption:
- the necessity to share some number of strong sellers for UG
- not give early takeaway for all sold outers(again, not the fastest one) from 4ki but to rotate them. So let's say for now the leading are: tamura, kanagawa, Hayakawa, rei but not all of them on instance.
- 2ki share for senbatsu. Kiichan is i guess right now, was third on picking order.

sales are always good as primary but there of course certain variables(graduation, health, school, presence importante, etc) that influences on how mgmt considerate and formulate their decisions. They can make Kakehashi or ayame as the next UG center (just) for example so the matter really left open.

My take for the possible rotational spots:
-tamura.
she came close and a guarantee sold out in next round.
-renka.
even after her hype been built as kind asuka2.0, renka's sales not improve quickly to tie with 3ki top oneesan or 4ki current top girls. Still imo her chance is big for senbatsu
-miria.
for 2ki ranze and ayane is the closest following her behind, and denchan(and possibly riria, tamami) still add to the mix but i suppose recently, lesser chance.
-wild card, kanarin.
Just want to mention her that's it.

 

Is miona not gonna have any handshake slots for this single? I wonder if maiyan would participate in the handshake event.

 

Nogizaka46 25th Single HS 2nd Round Result:

1st Gen (00/61) (+00) (0%)
1. (00.)(00/00) Inoue Sayuri (+00)
2. (00.)(00/20) Nakada Kana (+00)
3. (00.)(00/20) Higuchi Hina (+00)
4. (00.)(00/21) Wada Maaya (+00)
2nd Gen (42/180) (+42) (23.3%)
1. (00.)(00/30) Ito Junna (+00)
2. (00.)(09/30) Kitano Hinako (+9)
3. (01.)(15/15) Shinuchi Mai (+15) 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (00.)(09/15) Suzuki Ayane (+9)
5. (00.)(02/30) Terada Ranza (+2)
6. (00.)(00/30) Yamazaki Rena (+00)
7. (00.)(07/30) Watanabe Miria (+7)
3rd Gen (164/350) (+164) (46.8%)
1. (00.)(00/30) Ito Riria (+00)
2. (00.)(14/30) Iwamoto Renka (+14)
3. (01.)(30/30) Umezawa Minami (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (00.)(29/30) Ozono Momoko (+29)
5. (01.)(30/30) Kubo Shiori (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
6. (00.)(00/30) Sakaguchi Tamami (+00)
7. (00.)(01/30) Sato Kaede (+1)
8. (00.)(00/20) Nakamura Reno (+00)
9. (00.)(00/30) Mukai Hazuki (+00)
10. (01.)(30/30) Yamashita Mizuki (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
11. (00.)(00/30) Yoshida Ayano Christi (+00)
12. (01.)(30/30) Yoda Yuki (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
4th Gen (206/279) (+206) (73.8%)
1. (01.)(30/30) Endo Sakura (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
2. (01.)(30/30) Kaki Haruka (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
3. (01.)(30/30) Kakehashi Sayaka (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (00.)(23/30) Kanagawa Saya (+23)
5. (00.)(00/05) Kitagawa Yuri (+00)
6. (00.)(02/30) Shibata Yuna (+2)
7. (01.)(18/18) Semiya Rei (+18) 2nd Round Sold-out
8. (00.)(28/30) Tamura Mayu (+28)
9. (01.)(30/30) Tsutsui Ayame (+30) 2nd Round Sold-out
10. (00.)(15/25) Hayakawa Seira (+15)
11. (00.)(00/21) Yakubo Mio (+00)
Total: 412/870 (+412) (47.3%)

Note:
· Akimoto Manatsu, Ikuta Erika, Asuka Saito, Mai Shiraishi, Takayama Kazumi, Matsumura Sayuri, and Hori Miona will not participate in the 25th Single individual HS event.
· Sasaki Kotoko will not participate in the HS event in order to graduate from the group.
· Inoue Sayuri will not participate in HS event at Aichi, Port Messe Nagoya, Chiba, Makuhari Messe and Kanagawa, Pacifico Yokohama due to schedule conflict. Additionally, the management is adjusting the schedule at other ventures and will sell more if she is able to participate in the latter event.
· Kitagawa Yuri and Semiya Rei get fewer slots due to academic reasons.

 

Surprised to see so much difference between members. There's ones that sold out so fast all slots and others who have just 0/1. Popolarity of members seems unbalanced.

 

only those 4 participate from the 1st gen? It's crazy how Nogi manages to sell those numbers with all of their most popular members being absent from HS

 

Nogi's Younger Generation are also popular enough to maintain the sales.

 

fukujin is all of 1st gen but only 4 of them are doing hs lol

 

Well Nogi top members known for not doing IHS after they sold some number of slot. I'm not even surprised if Shinuchi is absent from IHS on next single.

 

Nogizaka46 25th Single HS 3rd Round Result:

1st Gen (16/61) (+16) (26.2%)
1. (00.)(00/00) Inoue Sayuri (+00)
2. (00.)(00/20) Nakada Kana (+00)
3. (00.)(16/20) Higuchi Hina (+16)
4. (00.)(00/21) Wada Maaya (+00)
2nd Gen (94/180) (+52) (52.2%)
1. (00.)(00/30) Ito Junna (+00)
2. (00.)(24/30) Kitano Hinako (+15)
3. (01.)(15/15) Shinuchi Mai 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (02.)(15/15) Suzuki Ayane (+6) 3rd Round Sold-out
5. (00.)(11/30) Terada Ranza (+9)
6. (00.)(00/30) Yamazaki Rena (+00)
7. (00.)(29/30) Watanabe Miria (+22)
3rd Gen (185/350) (+21) (52.8%)
1. (00.)(00/30) Ito Riria (+00)
2. (02.)(30/30) Iwamoto Renka (+16) 3rd Round Sold-out
3. (01.)(30/30) Umezawa Minami 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (02.)(30/30) Ozono Momoko (+1) 3rd Round Sold-out
5. (01.)(30/30) Kubo Shiori 2nd Round Sold-out
6. (00.)(00/30) Sakaguchi Tamami (+00)
7. (00.)(05/30) Sato Kaede (+4)
8. (00.)(00/20) Nakamura Reno (+00)
9. (00.)(00/30) Mukai Hazuki (+00)
10. (01.)(30/30) Yamashita Mizuki 2nd Round Sold-out
11. (00.)(00/30) Yoshida Ayano Christi (+00)
12. (01.)(30/30) Yoda Yuki 2nd Round Sold-out
4th Gen (238/279) (+30) (85.3%)
1. (01.)(30/30) Endo Sakura 2nd Round Sold-out
2. (01.)(30/30) Kaki Haruka 2nd Round Sold-out
3. (01.)(30/30) Kakehashi Sayaka 2nd Round Sold-out
4. (02.)(30/30) Kanagawa Saya (+7) 3rd Round Sold-out
5. (00.)(00/05) Kitagawa Yuri (+00)
6. (00.)(13/30) Shibata Yuna (+11)
7. (01.)(18/18) Semiya Rei 2nd Round Sold-out
8. (02.)(30/30) Tamura Mayu (+2) 3rd Round Sold-out
9. (01.)(30/30) Tsutsui Ayame 2nd Round Sold-out
10. (02.)(25/25) Hayakawa Seira (+10) 3rd Round Sold-out
11. (00.)(02/21) Yakubo Mio (+2)
---------------------------------------------
Total: 533/870 (+75) (61.2%) (2nd Round 412/870, 47.3%)

 

Its either people can't get enough of them or really want to get to know em

 

That might be the reason. Maybe Captain Manatsu teaches them how to fish well. However, I'm worried about Ririan and Denchan. They were relatively good HS sellers prior to 4ki. With an additional of 6 members to the 4ki line-up, people are willing to see them in person. At this point, 4ki seems to be "a force to be reckoned with".

 

Riria is the most baffling, she used to be the top 5 3ki, selling all slots in 3rd or 4th round, but slowly losing it, what could be wrong?
As to 4ki, they are still very new, people are still curious. There is a big gap between 24th and 25th single, and since 24th single, 4ki has been getting tons of push, so it's no wonder. Things will change after a while, the prominent one will still sold fast while some will fall out.