Nogizaka46 Senbatsu Prediction Game: 11th single edition!!!

So... seeing as this idea was well received last time I thought we'd do it again.

Rules are the same as for the 10th Single edition.
See link: http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?threads/nogizaka46-senbatsu-predictor-10th-single.8023/

Only 1 change to speak of from the 10th single format, which is that i'm add in 1 point for placing a member into the correct row.

I'll start things off.

16 member senbatsu, 9 fukujin, 4-5-7 formation

Sagara Iori - Eto Misa - Hoshino Minami - Wakatsuki Yumi - Hori Miona - Takayama Kazumi - Shinuchi Mai
Akimoto Manatsu - Sakurai Reika - Matsui Rena - Fukagawa Mai - Ikoma Rina
Ikuta Erika - Shiraishi Mai - Hashimoto Nanami - Nishino Nanase

 

17 member senbatsu, 10 fukujin, 5-5-7 formation

Sagara Iori - Eto Misa - Inoue Sayuri - Hoshino Minami - Hori Miona - Takayama Kazumi - Ito Marika
Wakatsuki Yumi - Fukugawa Mai - Ikoma Rina - Sakurai Reika - Akimoto Manatsu
Matsui Rena - Ikuta Erika - Shiraishi Mai - Nishino Nanase - Hashimoto Nanami

 

I really suck at prediction so let's think about something really surprising ! An 1-2-3-4-7 formation with a lot of change in position and some "new" faces.

hum, that's a cruel choice, I'm glad I'm no management.

Eto Misa - Akimoto Manatsu - Nakimoto Himeka - Ito Marika - Saito Asuka - Higuchi Hina - Matsui Rena
Wakatsuki Yumi - Shirahishi Mai - Matsumura Sayuri - Sakurai Reika
Hori Miona - Hashimoto Nanami - Hoshino Minami
Ikoma Rina - Nishino Nanase
Inoue Sayuri

​

 

16 member senbatsu, 4 fukujin, 4-6-6 formation

Sagara Iori - Eto Misa - Hoshino Minami - Wakatsuki Yumi - Hori Miona - Ito Junna
Akimoto Manatsu - Sakurai Reika - Matsui Rena - Fukagawa Mai - Shiraishi Mai - Nishino Nanase
Ikuta Erika - Hashimoto Nanami - Terada Ranze - Sasaki Kotoko​

 

17 senbatsu, 10 fukujin, 5-5-7
Wakatsuki - Sayuringo - Hori - Hoshimina - Nagashima - Manatsu - Maichun
Maimai - Sakurai - Ikoma - Kazumin - Misamisa
Rena - Maiyan - Nanamin - Ikuchan - Naachan

 

Some predictions look more like what they want not what it could be lol. I like kk127's predictions. Pretty realistic. mb1619's too

Predictions: (Taking account into pattern and perceived popularity)
17 senbatsu, 10 fukujin, 5-5-7

Kenkyusei - Marika - Nakamoto - Hoshimina - Nagashima - Nakada - Kazumin
Wakatsuki - Manatsu - Sakurai - Ikoma - Maimai
Rena - Maiyan - Nanamin - Naachan - Ikuchan​

 

Saito Yuri looked like she was taking a head count in the preview. Based on that alone, I'm going to make a 18 member senbatsu prediction.
I feel like I'm wrong about that and it'll be a weird formation but I can't predict what that would be so I'm going with 8 members in the back, just because it is something different.

Sagara Iori - Ito Marika - Eto Misa - Hoshino Minami - Hori Miona - Saito Asuka - Shinuchi Mai - Takayama Kazumi
Wakatsuki Yumi - Sakurai Reika - Ikuta Erika - Ikoma Rina - Akimoto Manatsu
Matsui Rena - Shiraishi Mai - Nishino Nanase - Hashimoto Nanami - Fukugawa Mai

This is expecting management to be predictable.
Potential: Ito Marika or Saito Asuka swapped out for Higuchi or Nagashima.
If it's not 18 members, I think Hori will be out. As for Sayunyan, UG centre didn't seem to do anything for her popularity so I'd be surprised if she got in.

 

I also found Yuttan's member counting intriguing, and I'm also willing to believe they might increase the senbatsu size.

As such, I'm also gonna do an 18 member prediction, with a 10fukujin:

Misa Etou - Sayuri Matsumura - Yumi Wakatsuki - Sasaki Kotoko - Iori Sagara - Mai Fukagawa - Mai Shinuchi / Yuuri Saitou - Kazumi Takayama
Reika Sakurai - Minami Hoshino - Miona Hori - Manatsu Akimoto - Rina Ikoma
Rena Matsui - Mai Shiraishi - Nanase Nishino - Erika Ikuta - Nanami Hashimoto

Explanations:
Minamiona up, Mattsun & Maimai down is mainly because that's what actually happened in Boku ga Iru Basho.

Some of the very successful Under members, in particular Marika, Asuka and Seirarin currently hold key positions within the Unders. If we were to compare them to senbatsu members, it's like Marika is Nanase, Asuka is Maiyan and Seirarin is Reika. Something tells me this isn't going to change so quickly.
Arguably, they might want to continue pushing Sayu as the Ikuchan of Unders. IF Ikuchan centers again, I definitely think she's staying.

Kotoko and Iori is the pushed Kenkyuusei pair, seeing them straight to senbatsu wouldn't be too shocking. Fans like them too.

Nanase center is purely a wish.
It'd also go nicely along with her upcoming photo book.

 

17-nin Senbatsu: 2 - 3 - 5 - 7 formation, double center, Go-fukujin

Inoue Sayuri - Hoshino Minami - Saito Asuka - Ito Marika - Wakatsuki Yumi - Watanabe Miria - Takayama Kazumi
Sakura Reika - Ikuta Erika - Hori Miona - Akimoto Manatsu - Fukagawa Mai
Ikoma Rina - Matsui Rena - Hashimoto Nanami
Shiraishi Mai - Nishino Nanase​

 

16nin senbatsu: 4-6-6 formation, double center, 10-fukujin:

Prediction:

Shinuchi Mai - Akimoto Manatsu - Hoshino Minami - Hori Miona - Eto Misa - Takayama Kazumi
Matsui Rena - Fukagawa Mai - Ikoma Rina - Sakurai Reika - Wakatsuki Yumi - Matsumura Sayuri
Ikuta Erika - Shiraishi Mai - Hashimoto Nanami - Nishino Nanase​

Want:

Spoiler

Shinuchi Mai - Akimoto Manatsu - Inoue Sayuri - Ito Marika - Matsumura Sayuri - Takayama Kazumi
Matsui Rena - Wakatsuki Yumi - Ikuta Erika - Nishino Nanase - Sakurai Reika - Ikoma Rina
Hashimoto Nanami - Fukagawa Mai - Eto Misa - Shiraishi Mai
​

 

I have an 18-member senbatsu because if we get a double center lineup, which is the rage all these days, it would look something like this:

Akimoto Manatsu - Sasaki Kotoko - Takayama Kazumi - Matsumura Sayuri - Hoshino Minami - Eto Misa - Hori Miona - Wada Maaya
Ikoma Rina - Matsui Rena - Sakurai Reika - Ikuta Erika - Hashimoto Nanami - Fukagawa Mai - Sakurai Reika - Wakatsuki Yumi
Nishino Nanase - Shiraishi Mai
​

This wasn't my original prediction; I had Reika and Wakasama at double center to mix things up. But given how these two are the two aces of the group, with Ikuchan and Ikoma not too far behind them, if management wants a double center to work, it's best to start your two aces rather than experiment with someone else.

And of course I'm sticking Maaya in senbatsu.

 

My Prediction
senbatsu 18 member (promote KKS)
4-6-8

Maiyan•Miona•Minami•Rena​

Maimai•Nanamin•Naachan•Ikuta•Manattan•Wakasama
Hinajima•Sayunyan•Ikoma•Reika•Sayurin•Iori•Marika•Misa

 

tbh i'm not that big of a nogi fan, but it is a game, so i'm joining just for fun

17 members

4 - 5 - 8

......................................Erika - Nanase - Maiyan - Ikoma
....................................Iori - Rena - Miona - Nanami - Reika
.........Minami - Yumi - Kazumi - Manatsu - Ringo - Maimai - Miririn - Hinako

 

Prediction (4-6-6)
Shiraishi - Ikuta - Nishino - Matsui
Sakurai - Ikoma - Hashimoto - Fukagawa - Wakatsuki - Matsumura
Takayama - Hoshino - Akimoto - Eto - Hori - Sagara

2 first rows fukujin.

 

My dream team (5-6-6)
Nanami - Manatsu - Nanase - Maiyan - Ikuta
Maimai - Minami - Reika - Ikoma - Marika - Himetan
Kazumin - Kiichan - Sayunyan - Matsumura - Kawago - Wakatsuki​

 

Misa Minami Hori Kazumi Sayuringo
Reika Manatsu Ikoma Maimai Wakasama
Rena Maiyan IKUTA Nanase Nanami

Nanase or Ikuta in center but hope a rotation Nanami for example.
Maiyan no way in center ,they dont want her.

 

my prediction: maiyan x nanamin double center
minami back to Hachi Fukujin
sayuringo last row
sayu-nyan back (with her push lately i think she'll comeback this time)
LORI first senbatsu

 

Her name's Iori, though.

 

random prediction here lol. guessing 18-nin senbatsu too cuz of yuttan's counting.

Matsumura Sayuri - Eto Misa - Ito Marika - Shinuchi Mai - Hoshino Minami - Sagara Iori - Sasaki Kotoko - Takayama Kazumi
Matsui Rena - Akimoto Manatsu - Ikoma Rina - Sakurai Reika - Watatsuki Yumi - Fukagawa Mai
Ikuta Erika - Shiraishi Mai - Hashimoto Nanami - Nishino Nanase​

 

Guess I'll get one in before the official results tomorrow. I'll also go with 18-nin, Jyuu Fukujin, 4-6-8.

Eto - Shinuchi - Saito Y - Inoue - Wakatsuki - Sagara - Nakada - Takayama
Matsui - Akimoto - Hoshino - Ikuta - Ikoma - Sakurai
Fukagawa - Shiraishi - Hashimoto - Nishino​