Single Sakurazaka 2nd [BAN] (2021/04/14)

@Philosophy Senpai -- To compare sales of 48/46 groups I use the Stage48 Oricon page. Having tried to do some analysis, I think Sakurazaka is doing fairly well.

Nogizaka brought out one single in March of 2020 (Shiawase no Hogoshoku), then another in January 2021 (Boku wa Boku o Suki ni Naru). Sakurazaka's one single for 2020 came out in December, so I think it could be compared to Nogi's January single a month later.

Boku wa Boku sold 589,000 units in the first week. Nobody's Fault sold 409,000, or 70% as many. If we go back to compare Kuroi Hitsuji (Feb2019, 750,000 sales) to Sing Out (May 2019, 1.004 million sales), that's 75% as many. So in the comparison with Nogi, Sakurazaka may have slipped slightly from where Keyaki was two years ago, but not much. That's especially good considering the almost two-year delay between singles and the loss of so many members, including Hirate.

Nobody's Fault sold 409,000 units, compared to previous single Kuroi Hitsuji (750,000). That's 55% as many. Boku wa Boku sold 59% as many as Nogi's previous single, Shiawase no Hogosyoku. So the drop due to COVID seems to be in the same range.

Over the years, Keyaki singles increased sales steadily from Sai Majo on to Garasu wo Ware: SaiMajo 262,000; SekaAi 323,000; Futari Saison 442,000; Fukyouwaon 633,000; Kaze Fuku 643,000; Glass wo Ware 833,000. Then there was a drop to 812,000 for Ambivalent and to 750,000 for Kuroi Hitsuji. So it looks to me as if Keyaki's popularity had begun to stall a bit, dropping slightly for the two singles after Glass wo Ware.

Hinatazaka released Sonna Koto Nai Yo in Feb 2020, and it sold 558,000 units in the first week. That's 75% of what Kuroi Hitsuji sold a year earlier. Hinata started at 476K in the first week for Kyun, then dropped to 449K for Doremisolasido, then revived again to 477K for Konna ni Suki, before jumping nicely to 558K with Sonna Koto.

I'd say Sakurazaka, factoring in the pandemic, seems to have maintained most of Keyaki's position, and now has to show some growth of its own. This second single will be telling: will people who supported Keyaki remain with Sakura? Will old Keyaki fans who dropped off over the past three years come back? Will new fans join in? All remain to be seen. I think we'll see a nice jump in sales, but I'm a fan and an optimist. And BAN sounds great.

It's also a good sign that Nobody's Fault hit number one and stayed in the top ten for all of December and three weeks of January. (Oricon rankings)

By the way, AKB normally sells a bit more than Nogi, around 1.1 to 1.4 million. But it has not released a single since March 2020.

 

@ukifune Thank you very much for the detailed analysis, spanning so many years and the multi-layered comparison. As a market analyst I must admit that this was really great work!

I do believe that BAN will do even better but I also hope that (hopefully with the recedence of all this covid madness) management will decide to make Sakurazaka more extrovert and arrange for multiple touchpoints of the group or single members/groups with the public.

And yes, we need subgroups and subgroup songs as well. "Concentration" is still among the very top 3 songs for me, overall, not only for its amazing music with its melodic complexity, but also of its interesting line-up <adding nostalgic sigh for Rikopi>.

 

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So far so good. Seems to be the Futari Saison inspired song everybody was longing for.

 

Love this! If this is Karin's main song then this that's 2/2 for her.

 

Although the closest Keyaki/Sakura song to an anime opening/closing theme, it is nevertheless a very nice and warm song.

 

Hopefully, Ten-Chan will get a great song as well. Looking forward to it.

 

Again, really great stuff. Feels very different, very breezy and upbeat - really pleasant to listen to, I like the vocals especially a whole lot. Plus, y'know, it's Karin - she's awesome.

Also:


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Oh, this looks good.

 

They actually used one of the best choreography styles at the start of this MV. Getting off the ground in reverse.

Off to a great start, I see.

 

this just shows that they admitted that Naze Koi >>> Nobody's Fault, BAN is the continuation of Naze Koi.

 

It's the same MV director of Nazekoi.

 

https://www.generasia.com/w/images/b/be/Sakurazaka46_-_BAN_promo.jpg
Promo pic of BAN
LOVING the white elegant classical outfits!

 

I'm glad people like the MV teaser -- probably the most teasing of teasers I've seen, short as it seems. I loved the time-reverse and the sakura petals -- although one Japanese tweet I saw said 'where's the tree'? (Outside the building, perhaps? As if it matters.) But I didn't see enough of the choreography to enjoy it yet. Pretty much a muddle for me, so far. If the director of the MV is the same as the director of Naze Koi, perhaps drifting petals will be his signature (or more likely Sakurazaka's).

But that photo posted by @patapataful is wonderful! Love those long dresses. And the outfit in the MV is nice, too. A bit of a Latin feel? Both somehow Nogi-like, but I don't consider that a bad thing, as long as the group remains unique in other ways.

There's lots of praise on Japanese twitter for the composer...but no-one seems to know who he/she is.

I like Karin's coupling song Guuzen no Kotae a lot. But I didn't get the full joy of it until I figured out the lyrics. Take a look at the lyrics posted above by @too much idea. That song was composed by aokado, who did Seifuku to Taiyou, which I loved, especially when it was performed in Keyaki's first Xmas live in 2016.

Some Japanese comments (mainly from 5channel, I think) consider Guuzen boring, with nothing special about it, a standard old-fashioned ("royal road") idol song. Well, that's not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you have Karin, Sakurazaka, and good choreo. And lyrics as romantic and moving as they are (to me). Aki_P is quite mischievous, taking Karin, who says she has never been interested in romance or romantic dramas, and making her the group's love-song specialist.

EDIT: The location of the MV shoot for BAN has been identified as the fourth floor of the Awaji Yumedono International Conference Centre, in Hyougo Prefecture, on Awaji island, at the mouth of Osaka Bay source, pics, maps.

 

Song seems very promising, very easy to listen to.

I like the outro section and how they step up the tone for the last chorus, kinda like Kizuitara Kataomoi ish.

It definitely feels like they're aiming for happy and easier songs during this new phase.

 

In less than a day, the BAN teaser video had got over 200,000 hits on both YouTube and Apple. At the 230,000 point, it was in the top five fastest-rising videos on YouTube. One comment on the story said it pleased them to see some overseas comments.

 

I love how the JP fans always mention how pleased they are to see overseas fans' comments. Hopefully, snf gets to give us some comfort too when it comes to the group lol

 

Full BAN MV may be coming Thursday Wednesday. Sakurazaka46 is listed as guesting on at least two morning shows: Mezamashi TV and the TBS morning show. source

Nice reports about BAN from Meet & Greet over last weekend. Sugai told one guest that the choreo was quite violent, like "Bang!" Asked what the MV was like by a couple of different guests, Karin did dance moves for them.

 

As if my prayers have been answered. Ureshii desu!

P.S. Now it would also be nice if we could get a glimpse or two of these shows, wouldn't be?

 

Glimpses: (it was Wednesday, not Thursday)


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At the end it says they had to do the dance over and over again for the MV and Morita says: "Muscles
hurt a lot."

Another morning show:


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KobaYui says this is the most difficult dance they have ever done.

Stills here. And here.

Sometimes MVs have appeared on YouTube as early as noon on the day they are previewed on these morning shows. I'll be checking in an hour and fifteen minutes. EDIT: One show did announce the MV for noon Wednesday (now just over an hour away).

Full MV:


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note: thanks, mod.

 

Oh wow I am in LOVE!

That 2nd costume is so damn pretty, I love everything about it! I can also definitely see how that choreo can be the hardest Sakuzaka or Keya has ever had, it straight up looks sped up at some parts! I cannot wait to see the full choreo!