Single Sakurazaka46 3rd Single [Nagaredama] (2021/10/13)

Every group needs a face. The face of the group is not for the fans, but for the general public and brand.

 

The face of the group is great, but they need more faces than one this time. They won't repeat same mistake with fixed centre face again.

Once this member graduate it's a big loss for the entire group which caused the mngmt to rebrand the group. They are still in it's infancy after the rebrand and we are only three singles in. I don't think they will add 3ki audition until after first chapter is completed with first album.

Saku is still working on their image and it will take some time until it bears fruits. Saku8 was supposed to represent faces of the group but so far it's not working so great during these circumstances we have in the world right now.

We have to see what Honosu can do about the situation with third single. It will be a very interesting single by removing Karin and Ten from center positions. Maybe having Risa in one center position and add Honosu for main title could change for the better for Saku.

 

I hate to say it but I don't think the Saku8 thing isn't working, The three centers who were picked for 1st and 2nd have become faces of the group who everyone who knows the group has heard of. Then we have girls like Yuipon and Risa who have been the front runners for the last year regardless of who's center, so their faces have been shown regularly too. Sugai is leader so automatically gets spotlight, and Koike and Hono, girls who were kinda overlooked in their Keyaki days, have been given a much bigger spotlight the past year. I think the Saku8 system is working if we're talking about who the 'faces' of the group are. Adding Pe and Habu to the mix only further proves that, any teenager who's into fashion or girl thats into gaming may know of those two members, yet Koike and Karin are still staple names and faces.

It's obviously not to the level of Erika or Maiyan, but I feel they're at least on the level of Hinata's top 8 members and Nogi's popular 3rd gens like Mizuki, Ume and Momoko, which is good enough. I tend to have this idea that a face of the group has to be as big as legendary idols like Sasshi, Acchan or Takamina, but in this era of idols I remind myself that it's fine for faces to just be popular enough that they gain a couple fans and increase brand recognition, they don't have to be stars (but it would be nice lol).

All this being said, I feel more confident that the Saku8 system is going to be something more akin to the Fukujin system, and when the eventual 3rd gen arrive and the senbatsu inevitably expands, the line-ups are going to become much more interesting

 

Sorry Phil, but so far the only ones "moving" are members who have always been pushed inside and outside the group in Keyaki and Sakura times; both 1ki and 2ki, definitely hogging the few important spots this system tried to create and relative spotlight/opportunities.

The only sort of positively surprising thing happening coming to mind is the Rena having outside job.

Sakura as group is still far away from creating a system beneficial to both the group and majority of members. Hopefully we will change this soon or between Nogi 5ki and this 2ki managing I'm really going to start praying some boss at Sony lose their mind and decides to give me my Shinkisei group finally (+1)

Meanwhile I'm just hoping no 2ki is thinking of leaving yet again, but.. they need to be stronger than this mngmnt. Not easy

 

I think Sakurazaka is in good hands with 2ki members. Watch at Yamasaki Ten, she's so young and already having outside jobs like acting in movies and modelling contract. And so as many others. They could become as succesful as 1ki Sakurazaka members if not even stronger.

A new 46 group? Thanks god it didn't happen and hope will never. 3 Sakamichi groups are more than enough and they can all be pushed in the right way. No need other internal competition. Having too many sister groups and more and more members is more difficult to handle and bad things can happen (see what happened to 48Group with the NGT Maho case).

 

I can see the spirit in which you're stating this. Frankly, I feel the same. However, there are certain things we should take into consideration:

Of course I would like to see songs with my Fuyuka centering, with my Akiho or Marino centering. Of course I would like to see them more, much more frequently. However, what I like means nothing at all. I mean, is what I like good for the group? Of course not. Does it matter to me? Yes. But the overal success of the group matters even more. To all of us. So, under these conditions this (indeed not so large-scale) re-shuffling is good. It keeps things moving to the next step.

And I think that the next step will help the group "level-up". You all know that Morita is my favourite old-2nd gen member. But now I will support and cheer Hono for adding her color to the mix. I want this 3rd single to be an even greater success as this is the only way we may hope to see more members in the frontline. Backs live has shown that there are many girls (yes even Akiho, Marino and Hikari to name a few) that can take the group on their shoulders, if required, even for one song. But their (already slim) chance may come only if Sakurazaka regains - and exceeds - the fan-base of Keyakizaka.

It is harsh and cruel but pushing some girls and not the others is required. It took me some time to accept this. Maybe the problem is with me for oshi-ing mostly "underdogs". However, the indusrty was full of surprises these couple of years: Who, back in 2017, could foresee that Hiragana will become such a powerful and succesfull 3rd Sakamich group? Who could foresee that Keyakizaka will seize to exist and restart almost from scratch? Hinatazaka (and recent period Nogizaka) show that centers are changing with almost every single. This is good and healthy, keeps the fanbase interest high and the girls much more motivated and therefore, in such volatile times, who knows who the next center will be?

 

https://twitter.com/sakuzakacentral/status/1427876197573136385?s=20
1st Round Sales Results

(Mod edit: Overized photos removed)

 

Happy for Rei who deserves the support (Rena too), sad for Yui Kobayashi, Koike, and all the 0/36 girls. Yui will probably be out of Sakura 8 in the next single at this rate

 

Well it's only the first round isn't it? I'm pretty sure girls like Kobayashi and Ten will soon sold out too. I'm more impressed by the fact they're having 36 slots. That's a LOT!

 

Yeah, I'm sure many girls will sell out fast, especially now that the top 4 girls have already sold out. I am just a little concerned about Yui because she has been such an integral part of the group. The director of the NazeKoi and BAN MVs, who didn't know the group before he worked with them had said that the impression he got after shooting NazeKoi was that Kobayashi and Koike are the group's pillars when it comes to performing. On the other hand, I suppose it's good to see new girls get opportunities. It's not possible to have all 25 members in the front row after all.

 

I think Yuipon is fine, it's just that maybe personality wise she's not THAT entertaining so fans are now into others before her? About the prospective of the future of the group, I'm more concerned about Ten-chan honestly by these first results. Maybe it's seen like she's pushed no matter what by management, and fans don't feel the urge of the "we need to support and help her" like it's happening to Karin. We all know it's always liked a more "struggled" path to get fans symphaties.

 

what the hell are you talking about. pon & ten will be fine. it’s very funny seeing you talk in here more like you know jack about the members. let’s see you keep this energy for the next single when the centre changes ctfu

 

wtf there's no need to be rude I didn't say anything bad, I just talked about the fans tendency to help and support more girls who they think are more on a need of support like it's happening to Karin due to the fact she's been pushed out to Sakura 8, which is true, like it or not. And of course Ten will be fine cause that girl is young and already so successful with outside works and loved, I'm just hoping that her HS results will be as good as the others top members' cause it would be better for her, but I honestly think she deserves the push and her position even if she isn't one of the best HS sellers.

 

Thanks for posting! Was too tired to post on here after making the chart haha.

Since the number of slots was mentioned, wanted to bring this up again ^ Sakurazaka has shorter slots (1 hour long versus Nogi's 1.5 hours) but more slots, which allows for fans to sell out the slots easier.

I wouldn't worry about members like Pon and Ten. It would be nice for them to sell out first round like the top 4, but they will undoubtedly sell out before the sales ends, which is really the most important part. Just with the first round, people want to focus on the most competitive members (which I did myself) and looking at the past win rates for members like Pon, Koike, and Ten, their fans probably knew they could afford not applying for many tickets for the first round, and instead went for (example) Hono tickets so they could congratulate her on her center. On the other hand, you could see for Karin that fans rushed to apply for her tickets since she got dropped from Sakura Eight despite having the slowest sell-out rate for BAN of the members that have sold out at least one slot for this single. Imo, this kind of shows to me that the group has a lot of fans that support the group as a whole (as opposed to individual members only).

I'm kind of curious to see the results for later rounds though. BACKS LIVE managed to rile many fans up, but I'm wondering if we will really see the results reflected in the meguri sales. Renaa already sold out after like Round 3 last single so I'm not that surprised by her increase, but what about Chuuke, Endo, and Onuma? I hope they can see some success in the sales as well.

 

^ Oh didn't know about the difference between Sakura and Nogi slots lenght. About that, why also so much difference between Sakurazaka and Nogizaka 1st round results? Here you can see members already selling out all their slots on 1st round, while in Nogi now you can see very low results on 1st round (only Yamashita sold-out 1 slot), and I think is something that changed recently cause I remember them selling out all their slots on 1st round too.

 

Nogi usually doesn't sell out first round, even during regular in-person events they usually don't iirc. Last single, only like three members sold a single slot first round. The main difference between Nogi and Sakurazaka is that Nogi allows for a TON of applications. For Sakura, you can apply to MAX 45 tickets per round. For Nogi, the first round is 45 tickets, but the second round allows for 75 tickets per application and 3 applications (so... 225 tickets max?), then the third allows 150 tickets per application with 10 applications so like... 1500 tickets max? For the first round I'm fairly certain they limit ticket availability, then they allow for insane amount of balloting. Therefore, the win rates for 2nd round for members like Yoda and Zukki are terrible (I remember applying for 80-ish Yoda tickets and winning zero) and I think this leads to a lot of people applying but because you could submit many applications, not everyone pays for each ticket they win. So some tickets may be released into the next round, etc. This is just a theory of course, but this is why you shouldn't compare selling rates between groups when the application methods are different.

 

I see, thank you!

 

Anyone care to explain what I said here that was so wrong to receive dislikes? It's really rude when people do that, and then refuse to comment on what they disagree.

 

I think it's due to the assumption that Yuipon, a popular member for years, could even possibly be dropped out of Saku 8 simply because she didn't sell out in the first round of handshake sales lol.

 

Maybe, but the people who gave the votes didn't bother to explain their positions, so I guess we'll never find out. Yui is one of my favorite members, so I obviously wouldn't want that to happen. But we saw Karin go from being a center, to the 3rd row, we saw Akane going from sub-captain to out of the senbatsu, so anything is possible. And I don't think there's anything wrong with expressing my concern that she's not selling better.