Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Popularity Tournament - the Sakamichi Cup now running

So it's Tuesday in Japan which means the polling period will close soon. This is my last reminder post on stage because I think I've already brought it up enough (and it's in my signature).
The poll will close at midnight in Japan, which is just a bit over 19 hours from this post.

If you want to be heard it's your last chance this round so please do make a vote if you're interested. Should only take 10 minutes.

 

Sorry I should update the title.

Fortunately, it won't be long before the next one because this one was late and I'm doing a bonus one early next month.
The bonus one won't be about popularity but other random fun things. I'll talk about it more once the results of the Spring survey go up.

There was a delay due to my PC breaking down but it's back up now.

 

Spring 2017 survey results analysis!

Spreadsheet (I'm not sure if it's easier to read but I think it's getting prettier! In certain places, anyway)
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5eW4wTlRMaE1DTU0

Spoiler: Introduction

Survey series background. This survey was the 6th in a series of polls investigating the popularity of Sakamichi Series members among the international (specifically English speaking) fan community. In addition to measuring member popularity, this series also features some interesting questions about management styles and other aspects about the groups, many of which were requested by the community. The survey now spans over 1.5 years, including the entirety of Keyakizaka’s career.

Timing of the survey. This survey (Spring 2017) was conducted a little later than planned from late April through to early May, running for a total of two weeks. Since the last survey, Nogizaka have released their 17th single and Keyakizaka their 4th. Nogizaka’s 3rd generation have made their debut on Nogizaka Under Construction and their own show, Nogibingo 8 has begun. Hiragana have started making regular appearances on Keyaki tte, Kakenai? as well. Finally, we saw Watanabe Risa become Keyakizaka’s first exclusive model, a “scandal” featuring low tier popularity Nogizaka46 members Kawamura Mahiro and Wada Maaya, and far too many Nogizaka member photobooks to list.

Questions. The survey asked for your favourite members, who you want to see in centre, who you want to see in senbatsu, which two members you “ship”, which members you dislike, which group you prefer and which your oshimen is from, your predictions on future sales, and your opinions on a hypothetical 3rd Sakamichi group, Hirate Yurina’s centreship, Nogizaka choosing centres, and finally Nogizaka’s 3rd gen and Hiragana Keyaki in their respective senbatsu.

Responses. This survey received 322 responses, making it the largest so far in the series. I was particularly interested in recruiting a large sample (rather than just my friends) so I could get a genuine feel for the international community and so that my own biases wouldn’t play too large a role. I’m happy many different people were willing to help spread the survey and find a diverse group of fans.

Questions and Terminology

All Favourites (AF). Choose all favourite members. Participants can select as many members as they like.
Oshimen (OM). Choose number one favourite member (oshimen). Participants can only select one member.
Centre Hopefuls(CH). Choose all members you would like to see take the centre position in the next few (I always suggest 3) singles.
Overall (OA). A combination of the scores for AF and OM.
Dislikes (DL). Choose all the members you “don’t really like”. Participants can choose as many as they like. This is the first time I asked for this.

Spoiler: Nogizaka popularity

Goddesses
As with every survey so far, Ikuta Erika and Nishino Nanase remain in 1st and 2nd overall. Both have relatively fallen in terms of their percentage scores particularly Nishino, who is currently the closest she has been to being overtaken by 3rd since last Spring, with only 7 points between her and Saito Asuka. It’s Asuka’s first time in the top 3 and in fact for the first few days she was leading the poll and it seemed like she might end in 1st. She is mainly held back by her OM score, falling from 3rd to 6th in OM with a significant points loss this round.

With a small points loss in AF, Shiraishi Mai fell one place to 3rd despite what appears to be booming popularity in Japan. Finally, ending the Goddess tier is Hori Miona. Hori had been engaging in what seemed like it would be an eternal struggle for 3rd place with Shiraishi but has remained at 5th and appears to have been replaced by Saito Asuka for this role. However, all is far from last. The points difference between Hori and Shiraishi is minimal, and Hori is still far ahead of the other members outside the tier.

Demigoddesses and The Third Wind
There is a large gap between Goddesses and Demigoddesses this round, partially responsible for this is the absence of Hashimoto Nanami (former 6th). The ranks were retroactively adjusted to account for Hashimoto’s absence (by reranking the group without her). Takayama Kazumi and Wakatsuki Yumi “remained” at 6th and 7th, with Takayama topping the Demi tier by a large margin. Despite a minor point drop Eto Misa managed to rise two places to 8th over taking former 8th and 9th Sakurai Reika and Ikoma Rina.

9th and 10th this round are new entries to the Demi tier. The “monster rookies” Yamashita Mizuki and Yoda Yuki. Yamashita almost doubled her score and jumped from 21st to 9th and Yoda came close to tripling hers, rising from 27th to 10th. Most of the 3rd gen have performed amazing this round, including Ozono Momoko (29th to 18th), Kubo Shiori (32rd to 19th), Iwamoto Renka (38th to 21st) and Ito Riria (37th to 23rd).

While some 1st and 2nd gens made significant point gains, few could gain ranks, unable to push back against the third wind. Ito Marika (jumping from 20th to 17th, with her highest score yet) was the major exception, with Terada Ranze being the only member to gain a rank (up one to 15th).


Nogizaka Senbatsu and Centre hopefuls

This time the senbatsu selection was done a little different. Rather than choosing which senbatsu members to keep and which unders to promote it asked respondents to choose senbatsu members from each generation. Then two versions are made: (1) the top (average number of selected members) from the group regardless of what gen they’re from and (2) the top (average number of selected members from each generation’s question). The 2nd version is used if we want to take into consideration how many members fans want from each generation.

This round you selected on average 18 members. Divided by gen that’s 11 first gens, 4 second gens and 3 third gens. Notable entries: Terada Ranze returns for her second senbatsu already, Watanabe makes her senbatsu debut and, even in version 1, Yamashita Mizuki enters senbatsu. In version 2, the additional entries are Ozono Momoko and Yoda Yuki, but Kubo Shiori is really close.

Centre Hopefuls sees Ikuta Erika rank 1st for the 5th time in a row (I’ve only asked this question five times). As usual the gap between her and 2nd is very large, and widening. She is the only member to score above 35%, and is somewhere around 50% each round. Shiraishi Mai fell from 2nd for the first time ever, perhaps thanks to her return to (double) centre. She now sits at 4th behind Saito Asuka and Hori Miona. Hori has hovered between 3rd and 4th since the beginning but this was a big jump for Saito, who ranked 7th in Winter. She made a similar jump last Spring to 3rd, she then made her centre debut, are fans hoping for a return? The 3rd gens did surprisingly well in this question, too, with “ace” Yamashita Mizuki ranking 9th with 13% of respondents selecting her.

Nogizaka Dislikes

This time I added dislikes, risking a bit of controversy. I wasn’t sure myself if it would be worth the potential fallout, but looking at the results I wish I started doing it sooner. Not that I’m happy to see dislikes, but they made me curious. I wish I had asked this question before so I could see the dislikes as a trend, and know if x (scandal, etc.) increased the number of dislikes. To see these trends, I’m going to continue asking this question. It will always be optional, though (as all questions are) and I’ll make sure it stands out (like it does now) in the results.

Matsumura Sayuri got the most dislikes in Nogizaka with 44, but only ranked 4th for likes as a percentage of overall (all favourites + oshimen votes). She was followed by Ikoma Rina (40 votes, 7th by percentage) and Akimoto Manatsu (38, 8th in %). Ranks 4~6 were the top 3 for percentage: Wada Maaya, 1st for percentage with dislikes equalling 135% of her overall points; Kawamura Mahiro, 3rd for percentage with 83%; and Kawago Hina, 2nd for percentage with 95%. Both Wada and Kawamura were involved in a scandal recently, though Kawago was not.

Yoda Yuki was the least disliked Nogizaka member both by votes (tie with Terada Ranze) and percentage. For percentage Terada and Ikuta Erika were close behind in 2nd and 3rd.

One of the charts shows overall scores with dislikes taken into consideration. There were a lot of major differences, including one plummet down 14 ranks.

Spoiler: Keyakizaka popularity

Goddesses
Hirate Yurina keeps the #1 position in overall, this is the 4th survey she topped out of 6. This puts her in 1st every survey since the group’s debut excluding Autumn where she lost to Nagahama Neru by less than one point. Hirate lost points in both AF and OM yet she remains on top of each by a decent margin. Nagahama returned to 2nd after a brief drop to 4th in the last survey, with 2nd place in OM and 3rd in AF. Sugai Yuuka beat Nagahama for 2nd in AF but her low OM (fell to 6th from 2nd in winter) kept her behind overall.

The Power Six
Rather than separate these between Goddess and Demis I wanted to highlight the amazing competition between the members who ranked. In order of final rank these are: Shida Manaka, Imaizumi Yui, Watanabe Risa, Moriya Akane, Kobayashi Yui and Watanabe Rika. I first noticed about halfway through the polling period that these 6 members were within only one or two votes of each other even though they had so many (around 75 each, at the time). This near-tie continued for a very long time before they eventually began separating near the end.

Watanabe Rika and Moriya’s high OM scores compensated for their low AF scores, and Imaizumi and Kobayashi’s decent AF scores did the same for their low OM scores. In terms of changes over the winter poll, the only standout result was Kobayashi, who made a huge point gain and went up a whole league of popularity, reaching a new record score, more than twice her score last spring.

Other notable changes and Hiragana members
Kanji Keyaki didn’t see many big changes with the major exception of Habu Mizuho who jumped back from 21st to 16th a large rise in score, her largest since last Spring, and also Harada Aoi who managed to reduce some of her huge drop last round (24th), now returning to 21st. Hiragana members had a few more major changes. Saito Kyoko replaced Kakizaki Memi as New-Hiragana’s highest ranking member at 18th. They actually swapped ranks with Kakizaki (now 23rd overall) taking Saito’s previous position as 4th in New-Hiragana. Kato Shiho and Sasaki Mirei were tied for 2nd last round but now Kato has gained the advantage pushing Sasaki back to 3rd.

Keyakizaka Senbatsu

Copied from Nogizaka – This time the senbatsu selection was done a little different. Rather than choosing which senbatsu members to keep and which unders to promote it asked respondents to choose senbatsu members from each team. Then two versions are made: (1) the top (average number of selected members) from the group regardless of what team they’re from and (2) the top (average number of selected members from each team’s question). The 2nd version is used if we want to take into consideration how many members fans want from each team.

The respondents really showed how much they want all Kanjis to be in the next single. All Kanji-only members ranked before all Hiragana members (including Hiragana-Kanji kennin member Nagahama Neru). Next was Nagahama who ranked ahead of all Hiragana-only members. To be honest, this is probably because a number of fans forgot Nagahama is a Hiragana member and chose “none” without checking. But, in my defence, she is officially a Hiragana member first, with her kennin in Kanji. In any case, it would be unethical to change the results based on what I call mistakes so I must stick with the answers I have.

As for the different versions of the results, using method 1 result with 18 members, all from Kanji Keyaki. Compared with the usual senbatsu, Ishimori Nijika, Ozeki Rika and Nagahama Neru are out. Using method 2, users chose 16 Kanji Keyaki members and 3 Hiragana Keyaki members, totalling in 19 (though both were only a few votes away from rounding down to 15 and 2). Method 2 sees Oda Nana and Saito Fuyuka removed from senbatsu, replaced with Nagahama Neru, Kato Shiho and Saito Kyoko.

Centre Hopefuls

Hirate Yurina ranked 1st in CH for the 2nd time. I wasn’t sure if she would rise or fall as the number of songs she centres rises but indeed her score rose slightly. Imaizumi Yui managed to stay in 2nd though her score continues to drop, with increasing speed. I expected this as she is being moved further from the centre and has recently entered hiatus to take care of her health. Nagahama Neru fell slightly no longer tying for 2nd but only a few points behind in 3rd. The most impressive rise was the new model, Watanabe Risa moving from 8th to 5th, swapping with Shida Manaka who went from 5th to 8th.

Ironically, rank-wise, Hiragana members performed much better in CH than the senbatsu question. Kato Shiho jumped from 28th to 11th, becoming the highest ranking new Hiragana member, with Kakizaki Memi moving up one to 12th and Sasaki Mirei making her own big jump, from 30th to 16th.

Keyakizaka Dislikes

Copied from Nogizaka – This time I added dislikes, risking a bit of controversy. I wasn’t sure myself if it would be worth the potential fallout, but looking at the results I wish I started doing it sooner. Not that I’m happy to see dislikes, but they made me curious. I wish I had asked this question before so I could see the dislikes as a trend, and know if x (scandal, etc.) increased the number of dislikes. To see these trends, I’m going to continue asking this question. It will always be optional, though (as all questions are) and I’ll make sure it stands out (like it does now) in the results.

Ishimori Nijika received the most dislikes in Keyakizaka, and also ranked 2nd for most dislikes as a percentage of overall votes (AF+OM), with 51%. I’m not sure what exactly brought this about, one reason why I wish I did dislikes before to see if this happened suddenly/recently or if it was always a trend. Ozeki Rika came next for votes and 3rd for percentage an Iguchi Mao 3rd for votes and 1st for percentage (by a lot: her dislikes were 83% the size of her overall score). These are a little more predictable, as I often see people complaining about their personalities. Nagahama Neru came 4th, the highest ranking popular member. I was expecting more for Saito Fuyuka, to be honest, after some controversy about her comments about not filling Imaizumi Yui’s absence from a music TV performance which were perceived by some online as being insensitive toward Hiragana members, but she only ranked 8th (5th by percentage).

The least disliked member by both votes and percentage was Sugai Yuuka. For percentage, she was followed by Kobayashi Yui, who also tied for 2nd least votes with 4 Hiragana members.

One of the charts shows overall scores with dislikes taken into consideration. There were a few big differences, including Nagahama Neru falling from 2nd to 4th, and Kobayashi Yui rising from 8th to 6th.

Spoiler: Miscellaneous

Next single sales
I asked what respondents thought the weekly sales figures would be for the next release of each groups. Based on 276 answers, the average fan thought Nogizaka’s 18th single would sell 923k copies in its first week, up 48k over Influencer. The most common answer was 900k with 53 votes. With 272 responses, Keyaki’s 5th single averaged at 728k, up 95k over Fukyouwaon. The most common answer for Keyakizaka was 700k with 71 votes.

If the predictions turned out to be accurate and the predicted growth continued, Nogizaka would reach 1 million in one week for their 20th single (Keyaki’s 7th), Keyakizaka would reach it on their 8th (Nogi’s 21st) and Keyakizaka would eventually overtake Nogizaka on their 10th/23rd singles (respective).


Nogizaka Centre and New Gens
I asked how Nogizaka’s management should choose centres. This probably reflects Keyakizaka-only fans’ opinions on how Keyaki should choose their centre if they do ever change it as Keyakizaka-only fans didn’t answer this one less than Keyaki questions.

The idea of choosing based on concept or to match a song was the most popular by far, and was the only option accepted by more than 50% of responses. Rotating to make many members popular, and giving it to young members were the next most popular and shared a common thread in that they were both strategies for making members popular as a way of investing in the group’s future.

The unpopular options were giving the centre to whoever is most popular, giving it to the most talented member, or having a way for fans to directly select the centre. It could be said these are similar in that they seem to be about rewarding members rather than building the future and perhaps that idea isn’t popular.

I also asked if the respondents felt members from Nogizaka’s 3rd gen should enter senbatsu or not. I assigned values to the “yes” options (1), “soon” options (2) and “no” options (3), and used these to calculate an average response of 1.9, indicating “soon” (i.e. not yet) but leaning slightly toward “yes”. The most common answer was indeed “soon”, with the most common “yes” answer/reasoning being that some are ready and the most common “no” response/reasoning was that the 2nd gens need to all make their senbatsu debuts first.


Hiragana Keyaki in Senbatsu
Because I predicted they might be a bit more controversial (in a good way – a good source of discussion) the Hiragana in senbatsu and Hirate’s centre position questions had more complex questions.

Respondents were asked whether they agree or not with 7 statements regarding new Hiragana members being included in Keyakizaka’s senbatsu. The content was based on discussions I often see in the international community. To summarise the results briefly:

More than any other question respondents were against the idea of Hiragana members never being included in senbatsu. However, despite the results swinging toward “disagree”, many still agreed with the idea of all Kanji members always being included, and it is difficult to imagine the number of senbatsu members being increased to more than 21. The most agreed with statement (while still close to even) was that Hiragana need to wait until all the Kanji members have experienced being positioned in the first row (even though including new Hiragana members and featuring the remaining three Kanji members in the front row aren’t mutually exclusive, there appears to be a symbolic issue here). Indeed, in accordance with this result and the results seen in the 5th single senbatsu selection earlier, respondents on average chose to not include Hiragana in the 5th single. Also, despite a majority feeling Kanji reaching the first row is important enough to have Hiragana members wait for, respondents generally disagreed that Hiragana members should have the same chance if they eventually enter senbatsu. A slight majority feel that they have been waiting long enough for the chance as one year has passed since their entry and only a small number of responses felt no one in Hiragana is ready for senbatsu.


Hirate Yurina’s centre position
This question was divided into three parts. The first part asked when respondents thought Keyakizaka should change centre for the first time. Results were almost split between changing for the 5th (40.8%) and 6th (40.1%) singles. Keeping Hirate for both but changing sometime next year was far less popular (12.5%) and keeping Hirate until she graduates was even less popular (6.6%).

The next two parts were more enlightening. I asked why people think Keyaki should change centre and the same for why not. It was the first time I included a question like that in a survey, usually I look around for opinions and then add those opinions as options. This method took a lot longer to analyse and some might disagree with the categories I broke the responses down to but I tried to represent the results as accurately as I could.

There were many more responders for why Keyakizaka should change centre. Out of a total of 156 responders, 60 said they felt Hirate should take a break/is under too much pressure. 51 said changing centre would make things more interesting, or that the perma-centre is boring, or worried about it becoming boring. 48 said other members should also get promotion which I distinguished from 30 who said there’s too much focus on Hirate and the group needs more popular members (similarly 8 said Keyakizaka needs back up centres, someone who can take over Hirate is unable to perform). Other responses included worries about Hirate gaining antis or straining relations with the other members.

Of the 96 responses, most of the arguments listed were about why Hirate is suited for the position. The most popular of these was a rather broad category I titled “Techi fanaticism” (35 votes). These included general comments such as “Techi is the undisputed CENTRE”, “it feels like Techi was born to be centre”, and so on. I distinguished them from people who mentioned her “aura” (15 votes), her skill (10) and her popularity (7). Other than comments on Hirate herself, 11 didn’t believe there was any member capable of taking over at this point, 10 argued that by keeping Hirate in centre they can establish a stronger presence with the general public. Other responses were waiting for things like the front row rotation (7), or were satisfied with the way things are and took a “don’t fix what isn’t broken” approach (7 specifically about Hirate, 6 who like stability in general).

"Shipping"

Another new question was asking respondents to submit their favourite pairs, the members they “ship”. This question was skipped a lot and I got some negative feedback, so I probably won’t be doing it again, but it was an interesting experience.

For Nogizaka, the most popular pair was Sakurai Reika x Wakatsuki Yumi (49 points) followed by Shiraishi Mai x Matsumura Sayuri (21) with points dropping quite low after that. For Keyakizaka there was a bit more variation. Shida Manaka x Watanabe Risa (49) came first followed by the captain pair Sugai Yuuka x Moriya Akane (30 points), Hirate Yurina x Nagahama Neru (27) and the more recently featured Nagasawa Nanako x Watanabe Rika (21).

For Nogizaka the most shipped member was Shiraishi Mai (55) followed by Wakatsuki Yumi (53) and Sakurai Reika (50), though the members shipped with the most members were Ikuta Erika (12) and Nishino Nanase (11). For Keyakizaka the most shipped members were Watanabe Risa (73) and Shida Manaka (66), with Watanabe Risa and Hirate Yurina tied for being shipped with most members (9 each).

Fan alignment
Almost every survey I ask respondents which group they are a fan of on a scale of 1-to-7 where 1 is Nogizaka purist and 7 is Keyakizaka purists. This one was almost exactly even. On average the 316 respondents to this question chose 3.99. So basically, even (4), with the smallest Nogizaka leanings. Meanwhile for their overall (well, Sakamichi) oshimen, 42.5% of respondents chose their Nogizaka oshimen, 30.6% chose their Keyakizaka oshimen and 26.9% couldn’t decide between the two.

I broke down the results to the miscellaneous questions by fan alignment (the 1-to-7 rating) to see if there are any significant differences between primarily Nogizaka fans and primarily Keyakizaka fans.

Of course, the Sakamichi oshimen was very clear cut. Almost everyone chose the group they were closest aligned to. Sales predictions also showed bias. On average people predicted higher sales for the group they are aligned with than the overall average. One peculiar exception was the ‘3’ group (leaning Nogi) made some of the highest Keyakizaka predictions and one of the lowest Nogizaka predictions.

Nogizaka-leaning fans were inclined to choose earlier responses for when Keyakizaka should change centre than Keyakizaka- leaning fans, though among Nogizaka fans the closer they were to Keyakizaka the earlier they chose (‘3’ was the earliest at 1.5, exactly between the 5th and 6th singles). Nogizaka fans were also much more likely to want to see Hiragana in senbatsu soon, supporting Hiragana’s debuts across the whole section. The reverse was also true, though to a smaller extent, Keyakizaka leaning fans were also more interested in seeing Nogizaka’s 3rd gen in Nogizaka’s senbatsu now or soon, compared to Nogizaka fans, particularly Nogizaka purists. In choosing centres, Keyakizaka fans stood out in overwhelmingly voting for choosing centres based on concept/to match a song, an option which was also popular with Nogizaka fans, but the other popular options, rotation and investing in younger members, were more competitive.

 

I'm not sure I'm finished publishing info about the Spring Poll (nothing major), but I'm going to be working on a bonus poll for June soon!

I want to include a section "X senbatsu" where X is one characteristic.
This will one cross-Sakamichi senbatsu (though it can be divided later) for a specific topic.

I've made some ideas so please go here and let me know which ones you like best:

https://goo.gl/forms/pokc4GL8V7Ws1QxU2

 

Sakamichi series June bonus poll!

https://goo.gl/forms/vrLjoRj6VodipSSJ3

Discuss your favourite music so far this year, make custom senbatsu (Sakamichi all-star, face and dancer senbatsu), talk about B-side units and Hiragana Keyaki's future, and tell me which popular idol group franchises you're into.

This one will run for 2 weeks!
(until Wed 28th June)

 

I don't think the gap is as big as people portray it as. Keyaki seems to be catching up to Nogi extremely quickly, but Nogi only started booming in 2015 (especially overseas). I'd say 2/3rds of Nogi's activity has been since Keyaki debuted, which means the gap isn't as big as it looks.

 

Bonus poll closing in 24 hours!

Last chance to pick your fav songs so far this year and create themed senbatsu!

 

It's been half a year, struggling to manage moving country, living alone, my new, intense job, upping my Japanese to handle interpretation for high ranking dignitaries and, most difficult of all, getting obsessed with NogiFes and Zelda BotW. BUT my polling itch has been aching me for some time and I'm eagre to get my hands on some data.

I'm truly sorry for leaving you all in the dark, without access to essential fan information like who has the best shaped nose in Hiragana 2nd Gen and which 46 Hours TV 10 minute personal TV has the most popular cinematography. But I'm back, if you'll have me.


That said, I'm not here to release another poll - not yet anyway.
I'm here to wrap up a few things before I can consider moving forward.

Most important is the predictions poll from the 2016/17 year end! I promised to evaluate your predictions for the year but it's already 2 months and change into 2018 so I don't have time to waste. Allow me to begin by showing accuracy of the general opinions and later on, I'll discuss who got it right, and announce a winners from among the people who left data.

Quoting the results from the predictions poll, with green for hits, red for misses and blue for commentaries. Oh, and orange for miss, but bonus points.

Spoiler: 2017 predictions, results

Nogizaka
Nogizaka singles will be centred by Ikuta Erika (62.1%), Nishino Nanase (56.1%) and Shiraishi Mai (54.4%). Possibly also Saito Asuka (28.3%) and Hori Miona (21.6%).
They weren't unreasonable choices, and I do still believe we're getting an Ikuta single sooner or later.

Nogizaka will reach 1,035,000 in Oricon sales (using mathematical weighting. With just the median answer it is between 950k and 1m).
That's pretty damn accurate. It's Influencer's total sales, and pretty close to the other two.

Yamashita Mizuki (42.2%) Ozono Momoko (41%) and Yoda Yuki (32.3%) will be promoted. Kubo Shiori (23.15%) and Ito Riria (19.1%) also have good chances but they rank after “none” (30.3%).
Hard to tell what the correct answer is. All are featured in singles, but only two have been in Senbatsu (and none in Unders). Points will be lenient for this kind of result.

2 (2.4) members will graduate, most likely to be Shiraishi Mai (42.2%), Eto Misa (30.6%) and Shinuchi Mai (24.8%). Following 'none' (16.3%) include Kawamura Mahiro (13.2%), Matsumura Sayuri (11.6%) and Nojo Ami (10.9%).
The number was accurate enough, but the members weren't. Couldn't blame you guys for expecting the older members to grad. Kawamura announced in 2018 so doesn't count, but people who guessed her or Ikoma will get some bonus points.

The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Nogizaka:

1.11 maintain/improve music quality
See the small poll at the end.

0.4 member has solo single/album debut
0.67 mainstream hit
Subjective, and Influencer was pretty well known, but not significantly more than, say, Nandome.

1 a new centre
0.33 a new drama
Objectively false, but with Asahinagu and two members getting dramas, I'm giving points for this.

0.17 a new variety show
0.93 a new contracted model
1.1 a new member gets a first photobook (other than Saito Asuka)
0.47 a new album
0.86 another 46-hours TV
Close but it was only announced a few days ago.

0.44 a scandal free year
Unless I missed/forgot something

0.88 a Tokyo Dome performance
1.43 a return to Kouhaku
-0.03 a 3rd gen centre airdrop

-1.25 4th gen auditions

Keyakizaka
Hirate Yurina will centre again (72.7%). Imaizumi Yui (42.3%) and Nagahama Neru (42%) may centre but it’s unlikely for anyone else, except maybe Sugai Yuuka (24.5%).
I don't think I'll ever bet against her again.

Keyakizaka will reach 620,000 in Oricon sales (median: 550-600k)
Was this supposed to be weekly? Because they did way better than that.

Kakizaki Memi (47.8%) will be promoted this year (in some way). Kato Shiho (32.3%), Saito Kyoko (25.4%) are also seen as likely to be pushed but failed to outscore ‘none’ (32.8%).
None received anything equivalent to a promotion, unfortunately..
0 (0.42) members will graduate this year but if any do, it would be Sato Shiori (7.2%) or Ishimori Nijika (5.3%). No others received notable scores.

The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Keyakizaka:

1.28 maintain/improve music quality
See the small poll at the end.

-0.02 member has solo single/album debut
0.86 another mainstream hit
Subjective, and Fukyouwaon did very well but it was a far cry from Silent Majority. I'm using strict criteria, so me saying this doesn't mean it's "not popular."

0.62 a new centre
0.57 a new drama
I never even thought to ask about a Hiragan poll!

0.58 a new variety show
0.81 first contracted model
0.72 first photobook (group or solo)
0.08 first album
I bet this is because Nogi took so long but no reason to think Keyaki would have. And already getting a Hiragana album too is partially amazing, but all the feeling of "appeasement" isn't great.

0.51 a scandal free year
0.87 a tour
0.98 a return to Kouhaku
-0.4 a Hiragana centre other than Neru
Well this had to happen.

-0.98 new auditions
I can't blame you. I basically only asked this because it was in the Nogizaka section too.

Micropoll
Rather than deciding whether or not music quality improved or fell in 2017 for myself, it would be far more interesting to see what you have to say:
https://goo.gl/forms/Kf4uZ0mtrztLpKTd2

 

March was a busy month for me! I basically fill the role of regional Irish ambassador (not as elite as that makes it sound but it describes some of my activities pretty okay) so my St. Patrick's Month was hectic. So the points calculation, which was a bit harder than I predicted, will take a bit longer.

For now, here's the results of the June Bonus Poll for music rating, themed senbatsu and a few other things.
It's a bit late so sorry about that!

Spoiler: Music rating

Influencer Favourites (multiple answers okay)

1. Influencer 61.3%
2. Sanbanme no Kaze 47.2%
3. Another Ghost 35%
4. Fuusen wa Ikiteru 43.5%
5. Igai Break 31.3%
6. Jinsei wo Kangaetakunaru 11.7%
7. Atari Sawari no Nai Hanashi 8%

Fukyouwaon Favourites (multiple answers okay)

1. Fukyouwaon 66.4%
2. Eccentric 65.8%
3. W-Keyaki no Uta 52%
4. Tuning 27.6%
5. Wareta Smartphone 23%
6. Bokutachi wa Tsukiatteiru 19.7%
7. Hohoemi ga Kanashii 7.9%

Umaretekara Hajimete Mita Yume

1. Skydiving 66.1%
2. Rewind Ano Hi 29.1%
3. Omoide First 28.3%
4. Boukyaku to Bigaku 25.2%
5. Settei Ondo 21.3%
6. Katai Kara no you ni Dakishimetai 19.7%
7. Ryusei Discotheque 18.1%
8. Kimi ga Aoide Kureta 15.7%
9. Minikui Watashi 11.8%
10. Watabokori 10.2% (tie)
11. Gomen ne Smoothie 10.2% (tie)
12. Mangetsu ga Kieta 7.9%

Ratings (out of 100)

Influencer
Song - 77
MV - 80
Full single - 77

Fukyouwaon
Song - 80
MV - 81
Full single - 77

3rd Album
Skydiving - 72
Full 3rd Album - 68

Spoiler: Themed Senbatsu

All Star Senbatsu

1. Ikuta Erika 138
2. Nishino Nanase 131
3. Shiraishi Mai 123
4. Saito Asuka 122
5. Hirate Yurina 122
6. Hori Miona 109
7. Nagahama Neru 101
8. Sugai Yuuka 99
9. Imaizumi Yui 88
10. Sakurai Reika 85
11. Kobayashi Yui 85
12. Watanabe Risa 82
13. Moriya Akane 79
14. Eto Misa 74
15. Terada Ranze 73
16. Takayama Kazumi 72
17. Ikoma Rina 70
18. Yamashita Mizuki 67
19. Yoda Yuki 56
20. Kitano Hinako 47
21. Kubo Shiori 47
22. Saito Kyoko 44

Who should centre this unit

1. Hirate 24.3%
2. Ikuta 18.4%
3. Shiraishi 9.2%
4. Saito 7.9%
5. Nishino 6.6%

Percent of centre votes
Nogi (67.3%)
Keyaki (36.2%)

Face Senbatsu

1. Shiraishi Mai 132
2. Nishino Nanase 121
3. Ikuta Erika 110
4. Saito Asuka 103
5. Watanabe Risa 98
6. Hori Miona 97
7. Yamashita Mizuki 95
8. Moriya Akane 94
9. Watanabe Rika 94
10. Sugai Yuuka 86
11. Eto Misa 84
12. Nagahama Neru 84
13. Hirate Yurina 79
14. Shida Manaka 78
15. Yoda Yuki 70
16. Kubo Shiori 61
17. Kato Shiho 60
18. Terada Ranze 59
19. Hoshino Minami 57
20. Sasaki Kotoko 55
21. Saito Kyoko 49

Who should centre this unit

1. Shiraishi 37.8%
2. Ikuta 10.8%
3. Nishino 9.5%
4. Saito Asuka 8.8%
5. Suzumoto, Sugai, Watanabe Risa 2.7%

Percent of centre votes
Nogi 82.4%
Keyaki 17.6%

Dancer Senbatsu

1. Hirate Yurina 98
2. Suzumoto Miyu 95
3. Ito Marika 83
4. Saito Fuyuka 72
5. Kawamura Mahiro 70
6. Nishino Nanase 64
7. Saito Asuka 58
8. Kobayashi Yui 58
9. Wakatsuki Yumi 56
10. Ishimori Nijika 47
11. Terada Ranze 45
12. Hori Miona 38
13. Kubo Shiori 36
14. Nagahama Neru 36
15. Yamashita Mizuki 32
16. Watanabe Miria 24
17. Iwamoto Renka 23
18. Sasaki Mirei 21

Who should centre this unit

1. Hirate 29.1
2. Suzumoto 17.3
3. Ito Marika 10.2
4. Kawamura 9.4
5. Watanabe Risa 4.7

Percent of centre votes
Nogi 40.2%
Keyaki 59.8%

People seem set that Nogizaka has more lookers and Keyaki has more dancers.

Spoiler: Miscellaneous

On a scale from 5 (strong agree) to 1 (strong disagree)* respondents answered:

Singles should have small units so everyone gets attention 4.5
Singles should have large unit so lots of members can participate 3.3
Centres should always have solo song or centre a small unit 2.7
Centre and fronts get enough attention, other members should get units 4
All senbatsu members should be in a unit 2.7
Unders/Hiragana have less attention and should get preference for units 4
I don't care about who is in the units as long as the songs are good 3.5

I don't understand why Hiragana is recruiting again 3.7
I plan to support the new Hiragana members regardless 3.9
I hope they use showroom again 4.1
I hope they get a lot of new members 2.2
After they get their second gen Hiragana should go independent 2.8
I want to see Hiragana more active 4.5
I only support Kanji so I hope Hiragana doesn't change the status quo 2.2

*note: 3 is perfect neutral so >3 means agree.

Favourite groups (and gens)

This is once again a scale of 1~5.
1=no interest, 3=neutral, 5=favourite(s)

1. Nogizaka 4.4
2. Nogizaka 1st gen 4.3
3. Keyakizaka 4.2
4. Kanji Keyaki 4.1
5. Nogizaka 3rd gen 3.5
6. Nogizaka 2nd gen 3.4
7. Hiragana Keyaki 3.1

Incidentally 48G got 3.4 and Babymetal got 2.9 but no other group did well. BiS and H!P got 1.8.
Note: this isn't really supposed to be a measure of general popularity, it just shows who is answering the poll.

I regret that this is all I can do for results announcements.
When I did the full graphs and the thesis-length write-ups it was a week's full-time work.
If I keep it to this level I should be able to make a comeback.

It's been a year since the last "main series" general popularity poll so I'm trying to get one up by the end of the month.
It's not going to have a lot of bonus questions but I want to ask about Nogi's 3rd gen mixing with SB and unders and Neru's transfer to kanji. Also thinking of asking about honest anonymous opinions on PB and gravure.
Maybe some questions about recruitment.

Are there any other small questions (big would be more "themed senbatsu" or "most x members") you want answered?

 

New popularity poll!

It's pretty bare bones this time so it shouldn't be long. Just loves, hates and a few bonus fun questions.

Sakamichi Series Popularity Poll Spring 2018 is open!

https://goo.gl/forms/U3nbg9pRjopY9FbH2

 

Reminder! I'm closing this soon.

I forgot to post in the general threads but I did today so you probably will see/already saw there but I'm delaying the closing of the survey until tomorrow (Tuesday) night (midnight JST).

Please try to complete it before it closes!
It's a short one this time so if you know for sure which members you like most it should only take a short few minutes.

Since I didn't tell the general threads yet, there's a possibility I still have 100 responses incoming. If so, I could get 460 responses which would be amazing.

 

The results of the survey are almost ready! Just adding to the write up. But I wanted to announce this month's special event in advance!

Sakamichi Series Sousenkyo Special!

The AKB48 Group General Election (Sousenkyo) is coming up soon.
Have you ever wondered who would win a Sousenkyo among Sakamichi groups?
How about my polls. Ikuta Erika and Hirate Yurina are virtually undefeated. But how would it go if you could vote as many times as you like?

It's time we find out!
The event begins next Wednesday (16 May), noon JST.
It will run for two weeks and I'll give preliminary results after one day, and another after one week of voting.

Because you can vote as many times as you like I want to make sure everyone is aware of the event beforehand and has an equal chance of participating so please help me spread this!

 

Sakamichi Series Popularity Poll Spring 2018 Results!

It's been a whole year and a lot has happened! I normally like to go into all the big differences but that would take some time! Most important changes are that we have no Himetan, Marika and it's Ikoma's last (so she's not in the future centre question).

The results write up is a bit rushed. I spent most of the time since the poll closed making tables etc. which are future proof! Or, I should say, future proof. Oh, and travelling to Osaka for HS events and Manzai, struggling with home utilities, sweeping my house for cockroaches after coming across two in three weeks (didn't find any luckily but I've laid out lots of poison just in case) and preparing for a trip home to Ireland which is coming very soon. You didn't want my life story but someone had to.

In any case, I didn't have much time to spend on the write up. At least on the quality. It's 3,000 words, excluding this pointless intro, which of course took time but the writing didn't get the attention it needs as I'm rushing this out because the Sakamichi Sousenkyo Special is coming tomorrow and I wanted to get this out first. So please, if you have the time and interest, read it, check out the graphs, discuss it, give feedback. At least one of them and I'll be grateful!

Spoiler: Responses

Responders
We now have a new record for responses with 515 people taking part in the survey. This is incredible and I would like to particularly thank everyone who shared the survey to spread it around the fandom and not just people I know.

Since I have so many responses I decided to take this chance to see how many responses were necessary before the results stabilised. The results did become very stable by around the 400 responder mark. So I hope to keep future surveys above that number if possible.

The tables below show the results for All Favourites (AF) over time. The gradation shows how well members did up to that point. This should serve as a basic indicator of stability.



Nogizaka/Keyakizaka Results
I analysed the interest in Nogizaka and Keyakizaka among respondents using a few methods.

One was asking the participants to rank themselves on a scale of 1 (Nogi only) to 7 (Keyaki only) with 4 meaning perfectly equal. Of the 500 responses, the average rating was 4.05. This means the voters were basically equal but slightly leaning Keyaki, for the first time in these 7 polls. For overall oshimen vote, however, the results were slightly skewed in favour of Nogi, though again mostly equal.

As for responses, they remain the same as previous years with slightly more people answering the Nogi questions than Keyaki questions, but the gap is closing. 466-458 for AF, 449-444 for Oshimen (OM) and 461-456 for Centre Hopeful (CH). With 214-222, the only area Keyaki got more answers on was Dislikes (DL; none's excluded), more on that later.

For number of votes per responder, Keyaki came out securely on top, mostly because Keyaki voters were more likely to choose all members (or all members of a certain gen) than Nogi voters. This was true for both the positive and negative questions.

For AF, each Nogi voter picked 9.3 members on average. Each Keyaki voter chose 10.3.
OM was of course 1 each. CH: Nogi 3, Keyaki 3.6. DL: Nogi 2.8 and Keyaki 4.9.

Hippies who didn't dislike
Because I was asked, 252 people who voted for Nogi AF didn't vote for Nogi DL (or selected "none"). 235 people who voted for Keyaki AF didn't vote for Keyaki DL (or, again, selected "none"). There were some people who voted to DL members of a group they didn't like but a negligible number.

The average respondent this year chose
Nogizaka AF: 4.7 1st gens, 1.7 2nd gens, 2.1 3rd gens
Nogizaka CH: 1.8 1st gens, 0.4 2nd gens, 0.3 3rd gens
Nogizaka DL: 0.7 1st gens, 1.2 2nd gens, 0.3 3rd gens

Keyakizaka AF: 5.8 Kanjis, 2 Hira 1st gens, 1.4 Hira 2nd gens
Keyakizaka CH: 2.5 Kanjis, 0.4 Hira 1st gens, 0.3 Hira 2nd gens
Keyakizaka DL: 1.3 Kanjis, 0.5 Hira 1st gens, 0.3 Hira 2nd gens

For more detailed info see the slightly difficult tables below.



Legend for the table
At least 1 - how voted for at least one member from this gen
Percent - what percent of respondents to this question chose at least 1 member of this gen
None - how many didn't vote for any members from this gen
Points - total votes for all members of this gen

Avg ... - average members of this gen chosen by...
... gen - ...people who voted for at least one of this generation
... cat - ...people who voted at all in this category (e.g. AF)
... full - ....all people who took part in that survey

Spoiler: Essential reading

Brief background on the popularity survey: There were four questions.
1. Who are your favourite members (All Favourites: AF)
2. Who is your number one favourite member (Oshimen: OM)
3. Who would you like to see centre and upcoming single (Centre Hopefuls: CH)
4. Which members do you not really like (Dislikes: DL)

AF, CH and DL could have as many answers as participants wanted.

The purpose of OM was to select one oshimen, so only one selection was allowed.

To make results comparable over time, each result is scored as a percentage of total voters. So AF, CH and DL scores, if totalled, will equal higher than 100%, because each responder chose multiple members.

In addition to those percentages, I also calculated DL votes as a percentage of that member's AF because famous members tend to receive more votes in DL. I also made another ranking, OA (overall), a combination of the AF and OM scores. Also, finally, a total ranking with DL scores taken away from OA scores.

There are two pictures for each question, per group. One is a simple chart the other is a complex-ish table.
It will tell you the score for that question (usually in the table "%") the change since the last poll (under "dif"), and the rank of each member and the change in rank (under "rank" and "dif"). The tables are colour coordinated so the better the member did, the more green the result is, and the worse, the more red. This should make it easy to read.

Spoiler: Nogizaka

Nogizaka results

Nogizaka's overall winners were Ikuta Erika, Nishino Nanase, Saito Asuka and Shiraishi Mai. Ikuchan and Nanase have been the top two since the very start, unmoving, with Asuka rising from 12th in the first survey to what is now her 2nd 3rd place ranking in a row. It probably would have been more if I didn't skip three seasons worth of polls. Maiyan has never had a position but 3rd of 5th.

The challengers were Takayama Kazumi who has risen steadily over the surveys; Hori Miona, who would have reached 5th but lost one rank due to DL votes, which she came 8th in, but also due to losing some points in AF and OM; and finally, Yoda Yuki, who climbed another rank to 7th with big gains in both AF (rising 2 ranks to 7th) and OM (rising 5 ranks to 10th), and enjoys her 2nd year as top of 3rd gens.

Other notable rises and falls
Ikoma Rina did very well this time due to small rises in positive votes and a big drop in DL votes. Ozono Momoko rose a substantial 5 ranks to 13th in pre-DL scores but was kept back at her original score due to a large number of dislikes. Suzuki Ayane got a rise which matched my expectations, now up 10 ranks to 19th.

Highest Under member was Iwamoto Renka, who rose 3 places to 14th, ranking 3rd place among 3rd gens and beating many 1st and 2nd gen senbatsu members. On the other hand, last place among senbatsu members was Shinuchi Mai, who ranked only 27th. Though this was 10 ranks higher than her placement last year.

CH and DL
Centre Hopeful choices weren't counted in overall but the results weren't very different. The main difference is that members who recently centred scored lower, as expected. Ikuchan took first place and, with 49.5% of responders voting for her, got nearly double 2nd place's (Asuka) points.
For Dislikes, Akimoto Manatsu took the lead, overtaking Matsumura Sayuri who fell to 3rd (tied). But as a percentage of their AF scores they didn't fare so bad. Top for that category was Wada Maaya, who ranked 3rd lowest in AF and 2nd in DL votes, and 2nd was Kawago Hina, lowest in AF and 3rd (tied) in DL votes.

I wonder if Maaya and Kawago's high number of votes is the fault of the wording of the question. I asked "what members do you not really like?" because I didn't want to use the more strong sounding "dislike", but that might have made people take the question very lightly and pick members they just aren't interested in rather than members they feel negative towards. I don't like changing questions but I might need to. If you're reading this I'd love to hear what you think.

Spoiler: Keyakizaka

Keyakizaka results
This was a surprise. Despite only ranking 3rd in positive points, if DL is taken into account Captain Sugai Yuuka takes 1st place in Keyaki overall. Permacenter and Ace Hirate Yurina got the most positive votes with a big margin, but that's also true for her DL rank. Nagahama Neru was 2nd in positives but also got a large share of dislikes and fell to 3rd in the final calculation. The other top leads are Watanabe Risa in 4th, a big rise from 7th last year helped by low DLs, and Imaizumi Yui in 5th, falling from 4th.

Challengers for the top position include Shida Manaka, who fell 3 spots to 6th after losing a lot of AF points, Kobayashi Yui, who fell 2 spots to 7th despite relatively consistent scores, and Moriya Akane, who remains steady at 8th despite losing a considerable number of OM votes.



Other notable rises and falls
The most impressive rises are Saito Kyoko who rose 11 places to 9th and Kageyama Yuuka, who wrote 10 to 23rd. Most other impressive Hiragana "rises" are the 2nd gens who took their first spots fairly high up the ranking, particularly Kosaka Nao, who tied with Kato Shiho for 13th (and 2nd in Hiraganas). The rise of Hiraganas is mostly due to AF votes, with few votes in OM. The highest number of votes for Hiraganas in OM is 5 (tie between Kyonko, Nao and Katoshi) out of a total of 444 Keyaki OM votes, so 1.1%.

Most of the significant falls were older members being overtaken by the new Hiragana members. The biggest surprise was Harada Aoi falling to third last. She was one of the lowest scoring Kanjis in AF and highest in DL this tie.

CH and DL
CH results aren't included in the Overall results but interesting by themselves. The difference between OA and CH is much larger for Keyakizaka than Nogizaka, probably because of the wildly different centre dynamic. In the last survey they were closer but this time the top changed dramatically. Every survey until the last one, Hirate dominated this section, too, but now it's topped by Yuichans, Imaizumi in first followed closely by Kobayashi. Neru, Risa and Yuuka all came before Hirate who landed in 6th with close to half her previous score. Suzumoto Miyu experienced a big jump, doubling her score to rise 3 spots to 7th.

Hirate took a huge jump, 6 places to 1st, in DL, followed by some more typical DL members like Ishimori Nijika and Ozeki Rika. Oda Nana's big rise, 7 places to tie in 3rd (with Ozeki) was a surprise. As a percentage of AF, less popular members like Igucho Mao, Ishimori and Takase Mana took the top three spots.

DLs were up in general, with more members getting DLs than last time. This isn't an issue in itself as long as people are being honest. But I want to be sure people are selecting people they feel negative towards and not just everyone who they don't feel positive toward (that happened a fair bit) so I'm thinking of changing wording to "which members do you dislike". What would you think?



New gen
The 2nd gen of Hiragana aren't very new anymore, but this is their first survey by me so I want to take an extra look at how they did.
About half of Keyaki responders chose at least one 2nd gen Hira for AF. This isn't far below Nogizaka's 2nd gen so a good result. They didn't do great in OM or CH but at least Nao and Miho got decent Centre votes. There weren't many DL votes for them, as expected.
The most successful member was Nao by a decent margin, and Hamagishi Hiyori and Nibu Akari were the least successful. But only 7th and 6th last, respective, so there isn't much reason to worry.

Spoiler: Misc questions

Miscellaneous
I asked a few other questions about managing the group. I'll go over the results briefly.

3rd gen songs
A vast majority of people want the 3rd gen to continue getting their own songs but most of those think it shouldn't be every single. Close to 50% of them only want to give 3rd gens tracks when the other gens have tracks. I can see the logic and fairness in this, but I think it really misses the reasoning and benefit of giving songs to the new kids. So personally a big disagree from me.

Neru decision
This got a little flak for being ambiguous. That's my fault, I should have specified as it wasn't that recent. Most people are glad she is now full Kanji either because they think she belongs there (52%) or because it's a better position exposure-wise (17%). In other responses, a couple of people said they were just happy she doesn't have too much work. That's a valid reasoning and something I should have thought of, but the point of the question was supposed to be more about what group people thought she belonged in. A decent number of people were undecided (18.5%), which I took to mean they don't know which group she should belong in, because that's why I picked it. Very few thought she should stay in Hiragana or her concurrent position.

One or two people say she snek

Keyaki centre change
As seen in the CH responses, opinion on Keyaki's centreship appears to have changed. 56% of respondents said they think it's time for a new centre with an extra 18% saying they should but only for a trial period and another 19% saying they should do so temporarily until Hirate is better able to participate (gets over whatever illness/other obligations she's struggling with). Last time I asked, "never" was a popular choice, but now only 3% of respondents think Keya should never change centre.

Hiragana in senbatsu
For better or worse, nearly a majority of responses (45.5%) said they think Hiragana should spit into their own group. The next most popular response was for Kanji and Hiragana to get alternate releases (or, as voted for in the "other" responses, double A-sides). So while few people outright said they should not join senbatsu yet (3%) or even ever (4%), I believe a lot of people don't want the groups to ever mix.

About 25% said it is time to bring some in, but 6.5% only wanted this to be temporary, while Kanji members weren't available due to illness (etc., probably), and a small number (1%) wanted senbatsu to expand so no Kanji has to leave.


On Yoshimotozaka
I wanted to ask what kind of group they were hoping Yoshimotozaka would be. But because I offered it, the vast majority of people said "I'll wait and see". A big mistake on my part. I didn't even have positive and negative waiting, just a super generic and useless response. My fault, and I need to do it again.

On collabs with AKB
The most common opinions were that people are happy with this level of collaboration (31%) and that they aren't a fan of collaboration but are okay as long as the resulting songs are good (22%). Generally people were positive about it. 12% wanted more, 14% wanted less. Only 8% wanted it to end completely. And 12% didn't care either way.
Results were positive overall, but Keyaki fans tended to be more positive.

On "risqué" gravure
This has been a bit of an issue recently, so I asked a few questions on it. I really think I could've done better so unless people are really against it I want to try again.
In general, respondents either are happy with some shots but think they are becoming too common (25.5%) or are happy with the current situation (24.5%). A significant minority (19%) want none but a small number of respondents (8%) wanted more. 22% didn't care.
Generally the result trended toward fewer shots, particularly so with Keyaki fans.

Other questions on gravure
People tend to agree there are some members they don't want to do these types of gravure regardless of her age. This was often misinterpreted in that saying "no" meant wanting underage members to participate in risqué gravure. Rather it meant to ask if you thought certain members, even though they are of age, should not participate in gravure. I asked because it was a popular opinion about Hoshino Minimi's recent PB.

People tend to disagree that Keyakizaka should have different rules than Nogi. Or at least, based on the intent of the question they did. The question wasn't worded well, as the previous on. That's why I want to do this again.

People also tend to disagree that rules should be laxed on gravure in magazines. Currently you can only see risqué gravure in photobooks and their previews in gravure magazines (excluding scans, of course), unlike other idols where you can see them in swimsuits and lingerie in gravure and manga mags.

This next one might have confused some. Are swimsuits and underwear (i.e. Lingerie) different in terms of risqué-ness, even if they cover the same amount of skin? It is generally considered to be as far as I can tell in Japan, and certain parts of the internet were very shocked to see Nanase in lingerie in her recent photobook even though she had been in swimsuits in previous books and in previews for the new one, but foreign fans seemed to disagree with this. Though when I asked, respondents leaned slightly toward agreeing that they're different.

 

Sakamichi Series Seasonal Surveys: Senbatsu Sousenkyo Special starts!

That's a lot of alliteration...

The two week special begins! You have 2 weeks to get your oshi to the top! I'll release early results tomorrow and after a week!
Vote as many times as you like for as many members as you like. But you have to do it once at a time! (replacing the money aspect of the election with effort).

Take the survey here:
https://goo.gl/forms/V8AVifW8kcm61YE43

Closing time: 12:00, 30 May 2018 JST. (may be altered only if I absolutely need to)

Edit: I trust you guys to be honest with this just for fun election but if I suspect bots I'll be forced to ruin the survey with a google captcha. Please don't make me do this and win the only way that matters.

 

Day 1 results will be revealed exclusively on my twitter in about 2 hours.

https://twitter.com/doiyasansubs

If you're interested in the surveys I recommend following me. I don't tweet often so you wouldn't be spammed by me. Only survey stuff and occasional (rare) translations.