Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Popularity Tournament - the Sakamichi Cup now running

Spring/summer 2016 bonus poll RESULTS:

Most of you have already seen results by viewing them after completing the poll.
But I've put them all together and added some glitter.

No long-winded analysis this time, but I prepared a lots of different graphs here to present many perspectives of the data.
And the raw data table is there for anyone to download and analyse for themselves. Unlikely anyone's that "m" but feel free.
So please take a look.

Full folder:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5QmlLcVJqZUxSZjA

Quick links:
PDFs
*Song rankings (including overall single rankings)
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5WGZRLXVNNk8ySEU
*The big list (all CD songs ranked in one big table+chart)
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5LXI3TEFRS1Zxc00
*Extra stuff
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5X3dVMUVKV0VoT1E

*Spreadsheet with all the data and charts
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5S0NBYWptcGVTRGs

Download for the best experience, I guess.

 

Question for everyone!

The next poll is coming very soon but there's one question I'd like confirmation on before I publish. I'm looking for drama genres to suggest.

So far I have
Sports (bemars sequel or other)
Slice of Life
Sci-Fi
Fantasy
Western
Historial (European or Japanese)
Horror
Mystery
Action (shounen-style, tokusatsu or majisuka-style)
Romance
Musical (with another genre for theme)

Any other ideas?

I'm especially asking @kinglight25 because you're always suggesting this question!

 

Seasonal Popularity Poll

It's time for the Summer popularity poll!

This is a main series poll, so the focus is which members are more popular.
There are some bonus questions about the current wave of singles, also shows and comedians.
It seems long because there are a lot of pages but the questions are straightforward and it shouldn't very long to finish.

Feel free to skip any parts you're not interested in answering.

http://goo.gl/forms/MwfzlVtRJsRWSZEP2

The poll will close early morning on the 5th of July (Just after Keyabingo's first episode airs.)

 

Summer 2016 Poll results and analysis!

Hey guys, remember that poll I did 3 months ago? Well with school stuff and redecorating my house (it's lovely, thanks for asking) out of the way, I'm finally ready to post an analysis. And boy, did it get out of hand this time. The analysis is craycray. 3,500 words. But, I've heavily titled it so you can skim through at your own pace. There's also some nice pictures you can look at instead of reading anything.

Links
Here are the results on old google forms: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1s171LMRdN5p6RTfzZEr8F91fRMcUe89vPpkO2NwmRrw/viewanalytics
(I can only send the old results because new google forms doesn't allow viewing results after a form is closed...)
Here is a link to all the files I have: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5U25jb3Ezbl80dEU This includes all the images and pdfs, as well as the xls file and a docx file with a less edited version of the analysis than the one featured here.

Introduction – about the poll and analysis
Welcome to the results for the summer 2016 Sakamichi Series popularity poll. This is the third poll in a series of regular, seasonal polls and it was conducted in July 2016, during the media run of Nogizaka’s 15th single (Hadaashi de Summer) and Keyakizaka’s 2nd single (Sekai ni wa Ai shika nai), the polling period was shortly after the recruitment of the first batch of Hiragana Keyaki members (other than Neru) but before TokuDare, Keyabingo and Nogizaka’s 3rd gen.

This analysis will compare the summer poll’s results (Sum16) with previous polls, conducted in winter 2015 (Win15) and spring 2016 (Spr16). Win15 was conducted shortly after the release of Nogizaka’s 13th single (Ima, Hanashitai Dareka ga Iru) and Spr16 was conducted during the media run of Nogizaka’s 14th single (Harujion ga Saku Koro) and 2nd album (Sorezore no Isu), and Keyakizaka’s 1st single (Silent Majority).

Spoiler: Part 1 – Respondents and responses

PDF with data

Participants’ background info
This time I asked some background information about the respondents (Fairly vague, for anonymity reasons). Though there were obvious trends, and the dominant demographic was early adult males from South East Asia, there were a lot of female respondents, teenagers and fans from every part of the world.

Nogi-vs-Keyaki
The Nogi-vs-Keyaki fan gap grew even smaller this round. Where 1=Exclusive Nogi, 7=Exclusive Keyaki and 4=absolute balance, the respondents rated 2.73 (up from 2.54 in spring and 2.1 in winter). Not surprising, considering Keyakizaka has gone from 0-to-2 singles in the course of the polling series. Regarding responses to single group questions, fewer participants respond to Keyakizaka-only compared to Nogizaka-only questions, though this gap is gradually dissipating. Using “select all your favourite members”, the Nogizaka question had 34% more responses in Win15 and 15% more in Spr16 (already a dramatic decrease), but only 10% in Sum16. Despite this, the participants’ Nogizaka oshimen dominate the kamioshi contest, with 81.8% of the participants choosing their Nogizaka oshimen.

Number of selected members per response
Certain questions allowed participants to choose as many members as they liked. Calculating the average number of selections per response, I found that Nogizaka stayed roughly the same as previous polls while Keyakizaka continues to rise dramatically (though the figures are still lower than Nogizaka’s).

Nogizaka – On average, each respondent chose 8.2 members as favourites (Spr16 8.5, Win15 7.3) and 3.1 members as centre hopefuls (Spr16 3, Win15 6.5).
Keyakizaka – On average, each respondent chose 6.3 favourite members (Spr16 5.6, Win15 3.8) and 2.4 members as centre hopefuls (Spr16 2.34, Win15 1.89). I expect this trend will continue as fans get to know the remaining members of this still young group.

Why participants buy singles
Finally, I also asked the participants what convinces them to buy singles. Not surprisingly, the aspect rated most important was a good A-side, scoring an average rating of 4.43 (5=important, 1=not important, 3=neutral). The aspects rated 2nd (B-sides; 4.19) and 3rd (music videos, 4.16) had unusual features. B-sides scored well thanks to the lowest “not important” ratings of the list, but MVs got much more of the highest rating. HS events scored least important with a score of 3.02. It is no coincidence that the responders are from the international community and many cannot participate (or, at least, cannot participate regularly).

Spoiler: Part 2 – latest singles and other media

PDF with data

Nogizaka’s 15th single, ‘Hadaashi de Summer’
Senbatsu and formation
I asked participants to rate how they felt about the senbatsu / formation changes this single. Where 5=happy or accepting and 1=unhappy or unaccepting: the responses to Nakamoto Himeka’s return to senbatsu (avg. 4.07) and Sakurai Reika’s return to fukujin (3.92) were overwhelmingly positive. Though slightly less popular than these returnees, Saito Asuka’s centre position debut was seen very positively (3.79). Matsumura Sayuri’s return to fukujin status and Inoue Sayuri and Ito Marika’s drop scored averagely, with a marginally positive (happy) result for Matsumura (3.23) and a marginally negative (unaccepting) for one for Inoue and Ito (2.73).

It should be noted Inoue and Ito’s question was hard to word and it’s possible it might have been misunderstood. A non-linear multiple choice question probably would have served better. The 2nd gen question was even poorer and the data gained was probably not useful so I have omitted it from the results. This was my failing but I will try to improve the polls in future to prevent wasted questions.

Fukujin
I asked which of the remaining fukujin members should have left fukujin. Respondents could select more than one option but percentages are of respondents, not the votes. 35.4% of the respondents were in favour of the current situation. Only one member scored higher than that, Akimoto Manatsu with 36.4%. Takayama Kazumi was the only other member close to that number, with 30.8%. The rest were mostly secure. Unsurprisingly, the results almost perfectly correlate with popularity as seen later.

I also asked who should have been in Fukujin out of the current/previous back rows (i.e. for the 14th and 15th single senbatsu). Only 14.2% of respondents voted in favour of the current situation, unlike the previous question where it was one of the highest scoring options. Nakamoto Himeka took the lead with 31.5% support, followed closely by Hori Miona (31%) and Wakatsuki Yumi (30.5%). Nakamoto was one of few never-fukujin members up for selection but took the top despite this. She likely got much support from fans annoyed at the lack of management attention for her despite her popularity. Hori and Wakatsuki have been fukujin before but they have spent a long time away from the front since then and fans seem eager to get them back there. Wakatsuki likely got some OTP support from fans wishing she could join Sakurai as she returned to fukujin this single. Hoshino Minami (22.8%) and Ikoma Rina (20.3%) also scored above the “happy with the current situation” threshold. No one scored poorly, though.

2nd gen representatives
Finally, I also asked about who should represent the 2nd gen in senbatsu if there were 2-3 reps. The current 2 reps, Hori Miona and Kitano Hinako scored exceptionally well, with more than 50% favouring Kitano and Hori scoring a titanic 70.8%, clearing any doubts of her role as face of the 2nd gen. The clear winner for third 2nd gen rep was Terada Ranze with 36.9% supporting her. Competition for 4th was fierce with Sasaki Kotoko, Watanabe Miria, Ito Karin and Suzuki Ayane scoring within a few percent of each other. Shinuchi Mai scored last, initially surprising. However, she scored quite poorly in the popularity sections, too.

Keyakizaka’s 2nd single, ‘Sekai ni was Ai shika nai’
Senbatsu and formation
All of the aspects of the senbatsu and formation rated received positive responses.Where 5=happy and 1=unhappy: Nagahama Neru’s senbatsu debut was especially positive, scoring an average of 4.02. Some were apprehensive about the formation in general (3.3), perhaps unhappy with certain members remaining in the third row and not everyone is thrilled to have all 21 members in senbatsu, though the majority still was (3.48). Approval for Hirate Yurina returning to the centre position was high (3.68) though divisive, with a large number of 5’s and 1’s compared to other questions.

Other questions
Regarding Kanji-Hiragana kennin (concurrent members), the results show that the Hiragana Keyaki idea continues to confuse us all. Most respondents were either in favour of kennin or against it but glad Nagahama Neru can join senbatsu, but the unpopularity of the Hiragana system continues despite support for Nagahama (and, likely, for the other members, too).

When rating the song itself relative to the popular ‘Silent Majority’, almost all of the votes found they were both enjoyable (93.7%). More respondents thought SaiMajo was better than SekaiAi (41.7%) than the opposite (those who thought SekaiAi were better than SaiMajo; 10.3%), but even they were outnumbered by those who found both equally good (43.4%).

Favourite Media / Miscellaneous
Favourite MCs (hosts/comedians)
No major surprises in this one. The long-running, main Nogizaka MCs Bananaman and Ijiri Okada dominated the responses. The other MCs hosted shows that were less mainstream, less regular (monthly, etc.) or running for a shorter amount of time. In Soude-san’s case, he also wasn’t a permanent MC even when he was working with Nogi, as Nogiten had episodes without him.

Favourite shows
NogiDoko and NogiChu took the crown closely followed by Nogibingo. Meanwhile KeyaKake lead the rest of the options. Again, none of this is surprising; the Nogi/Keyaki split in popularity is *identical* to the split according to earlier questions. And the other shows are less major.

For net/regular guest shows NogiKoko took the top. This was surprising for me as I personally can’t think of any way Nogiten (second) loses to it. The other popular shows include the English language Tokyo Girl’s Update, the popular music shows featuring multiple members, Namadol and HimatsubushiTV, and two other regularly shared shows featuring popular members and other popular celebs, Lion no Guutachi and JUMPolice. The remaining shows were all very niche related to one sport or activity. They also typically only featured one member, with the exception of NogiGolf, which was difficult to access outside Japan and rarely shared.

Favourite radio programs
Nogizaka no ‘No’ absolutely devastated the competition for this question. As Nogizaka’s primary regular radio show this should be expected. Coming next we have Harry’s English class featuring Saito Asuka and Rajira! Sunday featuring Nakamoto Himeka. It’s probably no coincidence that they are both hosted by comedians who interact with members in other shows (Harry Sugiyama was the host of Tokyo Girl’s Update, and Rajira! Sunday is hosted by Oriental Radio who also do JUMPolice with Ikoma Rina), though no doubt they were also aided by Ashu’s adorable English efforts and Himetan’s magnificent giggles… Interestingly, KochiHoshi and Maichun’s ANN 0, which tied for 4th with 20 votes each, are not only on the same station but they were announced at the same time (same press release) and began on the same week.

Spoiler: Part 3 – Nogizaka46

Members’ popularity will be derived from the results of 3 survey questions:

All Favourites (AF): Choose all favourite members. Participants can select as many members as they like.
Oshimen (OM): Choose number one favourite member (oshimen). Participants can only select one member.
Centre hopeful (CH): Choose who you would like to centre a single. Participants were recommended to pick up to 3 members.

Responses will be discussed as, for example, “an AF of 31” which means 31% of respondents to the ‘All Favourites’ question chose this member.

Charts

International fan selected single senbatsu and undergirls:


Kami trio – Ikuta, Nishino, Shiraishi. Add Hori for a quartet?!
The top three remains unchanged. Ikuta Erika reigns supreme yet again, with an AF of 65, OM of 20 and a CH of 48. These scores are marginally lower than Spr16 but she still remains on top in each category by a large margin. Nishino Nanase and Shiraishi Mai continue to battle for second. Nishino took second in AF and OM but remains at the low position of 6th for CH due to her large centre experience. Shiraishi placed 2nd for CH and 3rd for AF but fell 2 places to 5th for OM. Nishino increased scores in all categories while Shiraishi only increased her AF, falling slightly in CH and noticeably in OM.

Hori Miona fans continue to fight to place her in the top of the ranking and she may be approaching a breakthrough. She managed to keep 4th in AF, rose up 1 place to take 4th in OM (overtaking kami trio Maiyan in the process) and, despite dropping 1 place to 5th, retained a good score in CH. Currently outperforming any member in tier 2, I eagerly await the results of the coming poll to see if she belongs among the gods or the mortals (who are still awesome).

Demigoddesses – Hashimoto, Nakamoto, Saito Asuka
The tier 2 Nogizaka members are becoming murkier. Members successful in one category often aren’t in others, and which categories are more valuable is subject to debate. However it is clear Hashimoto Nanami deserves to retain her position and Nakamoto Himeka deserves to gain one. Saito Asuka, however, struggles to maintain hers.

Despite falling in both categories, Hashimoto managed to maintain respectable scores and stay near the top AF (7th) and OM (6th), in addition to rising from 5th to 3rd in CH. She has gotten relatively little attention lately, despite this her popularity persists and fans want to see her back in the spotlight. Nakamoto took the polls by storm, rising 3 places to 7th in AF 4 places to 4th in CH and from score of 0 up to 8th in OM! Now that she’s in senbatsu and fully selling out HS slots, let’s see if she has what it takes to maintain this wonderful momentum.

While still scoring well, Saito Asuka has trouble keeping up with the other demigoddesses. She was able to retain her high position in AF (6th) but dropped to 9th from 3rd in CH, losing nearly half her score from Spr16. This is a natural side-effect of actually gaining a centre position, though it’s reassuring to see many still continue to support future centre prospects. On the positive side she went from tying for 16th to tying for 9th in OM, which helped maintain her demi status. Hopefully after all the attention she got during Hadaashi’s media run she will have picked up a little more support.

Competition to enter demigoddesses – Eto, Sakurai, Ikoma.
Finally, we have three competitors fighting for a place in Demis. Eto Misa lost points in all categories, notably losing more than half her OM votes, but managed to rise relatively, as other members falling placed her in overall 8th. She has a similar position as Hashimoto Nanami, slipping out of attention despite popularity now her momentum hangs in the balance despite being less than a year since her fukujin debut. Scorewise, Sakurai is similar, only gaining points and ranks in CH, but relatively gained and overall she now sits in 9th. Finally Ikoma surprised us by rising to 3rd in OM and returning to 10th in CH (19th Spr16, 10th Win15), though by remaining in the lower rank of 16th in AF she only reached overall 10th, keeping her out of demis for now. However, this good performance is a sign of good things in the future and Ikoma, as well as the other members discussed here, are must-watches when the results for the next poll roll around.

Other notable rises and falls
Other than Nakamoto Himeka and Ikoma Rina, there were few very notable rises. Hoshino Minami made minor gains toward higher positions in all three categories, impressive as she rose to competitive high positions, 11th-to-8th in AF, 11th-9th in OM, and 13th-11th in CH. Though lower positions, Ito Marika made even greater jumps from 18th-9th in OM and 16th-12th in CH, and Inoue Sayuri jumped from 18th-12th in AF.

The greatest falls were seen by Takayama Kazumi and Akimoto Manatsu. Takayama dropped from 7th-to-11th in AF and 14th-10th in CH, and Akimoto dropped from 18th-14th in AF and 11th-17th in CH. Perhaps their permanent fukujin spots despite tough competition are now frustrating fans who want to see attention for other girls who deserve a chance. Nojo Ami also dropped disastrously in AF, from 23rd-tied for 31st.

Spoiler: Part 4 – Keyakizaka46

As in Part 3, members’ popularity will be derived from the results of 3 survey questions:

All Favourites (AF): Choose all favourite members. Participants can select as many members as they like.
Oshimen (OM): Choose number one favourite member (oshimen). Participants can only select one member.
Centre hopeful (CH): Choose who you would like to centre a single. Participants were recommended to pick up to 3 members.

Responses will be discussed as, for example, “an AF of 31” which means 31% of respondents to the ‘All Favourites’ question chose this member.

Charts

International fan selected Kanji and Hiragana senbatsu:


Top tier – Goddesses Hirate, Imaizumi, Nagahama and Sugai.
Hirate Yurina secured her throne. Though she took the top for the popularity rankings AF and OM in Spr16, she fell behind with her lacklustre CH score (30.1), putting her behind Imaizumi Yui for tallied score. I personally still judged this a win as CH is far more fickle than the other two, but in this poll, Hirate improved her CH (34.4), while also furthering her dominance of the AF and OM categories, thus gaining the lead in tallied score, practically earning a tier of her own.

Imaizumi dropped in points and ranks, certainly, but she remains Hirate’s biggest rival and number one centreship contender. While she fell 1 to 3rd in AF and 2 to 4th in OM, her high scores in these and dominance in CH (36.1, the only member to beat Hirate in this category) helps her cling on to her place in 2nd overall. Nagahama Neru is a big threat, however, and it could be argued she already took over the position. With rounding, she became the 2nd member to achieve an approval rate of 50 in AF (after Hirate) and took a good slice of OM votes to reach 2nd there too. Despite ranking 3rd in CH, her score of 26.7 is what holds her back from usurping overall second. However, this close matchup may go either way next poll.

Not to be forgotten, Sugai also deserves the goddess title. As well as scoring 4th in the tallied ranking, Sugai maintained 4th in AF and 6th in OM. She fell 1 to 4th in CH, but maintains a strong score, showing she is seen as a serious centre potential.

Tier 2 – Demigoddesses WWatanabe and Shida, with trailing Kobayashi.
Keyaki’s demigoddesses are comparatively clear cut this time. Watanabe Risa’s rise has somewhat slowed down but it continues upward at this slower pace. She lost some votes and 2 ranks (to 8th) in OM, but gained significantly in AF and CH, even overtaking Watanabe Rika in the latter. Shida Manaka made a significant rise in OM, moving 4 places up to 3rd, 2 places up to 7th in CH and 1 place to tie for 5th in AF. Also Watanabe Rika managed to stay afloat with only marginal losses this round, losing 2 places in OM and CH yet maintaining in AF with a decent score increase. She had major losses in the Spr16 poll so it’s good to just see her maintaining decent scores.

Kobayashi Yui didn’t quite reach the mark for demi, but she is still quite ahead of the rest of the group and could be considered a demi-demi. Kobayashi made substantial gains in AF, moderate gains in CH and outstanding gains in OM. She had previously lost nearly 2/3rds of her Win15 score in Spr16, so it is good to see her score better than ever this round.

Other rises and falls
The biggest rise by far was Koike Minami’s. Koike rose 6 places to 11th in AF, 6 places to 12th in OM and nearly doubling her score in CH (despite no rank increase). I can’t pinpoint what it was that warmed people up to Koike over this period but that’s only because I like everything about her… Other significant rises were seen in Uemura Rina’s AF rank (13th-8th) and Harada Aoi’s OM rank (15th-9th).

The biggest falls were Moriya Akane and Ishimori Nijika. Moriya was previously a high ranking member, ranking 6th~9th in all categories, yet she fell as far as 6 places (AF; 6th-12th) to become a mid-tier member. Similarly the mid-tier member Ishimori ranked between 9th~12th in all categories but now she sits in the bottom 4 (kanji members only) in them.

Hiragana Keyaki (new only)
Unlike the other discussions, this section will compare AF results with a similar question from the Spring-Summer Bonus poll (SSB16), as that is the only poll conducted which asked about the new Hiragana Keyaki members.

As expected, tentative centre and youngest member among new Hiragreens Kakizaki Memi came in first yet again. Her margin is lower but she is still the absolute top member. She and Takamoto Ayaka are the only members to beat any of the Kanji senpai in AF, and she even managed to come in 15th of all members in CH. Takamoto overtook Saito Kyoko to come in 2nd in AF. Saito tied with Sasaki Mirei and Ushio Sarina for third, who impressively rose from 8th and 9th places in the previous poll, respectively. Iguchi Mao and Higashimura Mei had steep drops, for unknown reasons, though I can see why Iguchi might struggle slightly to maintain a mainstream appeal…

Interestingly, despite it only being one vote, Sasaki Kumi was the only new Hiragana member to get OM votes. She fell slightly from 4th to 6th in AF but her future still seems bright.

 

Autumn poll suggestions request!

I know it's sudden but the next one is coming soon! It's overdue, anyway.

So I'm looking for help. The next poll will be a usual popularity poll, but the part 2 will be "which member..." questions.

Example:
Best singers vs worst singers.
Most brave vs most scared (/biggest crybaby)
Who should get a solo single
Who should be the next Nogizaka model / Keyakizaka's first model.

I'm looking for your input!
What questions would you like?
It can be like the above examples or a completely different question.
Feel free to say anything you'd like to poll the fandom about!
Even if I don't use it I'll keep it in my notes for a potential future question