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Single [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th [Kimi no Na wa Kibou] '13/03/13

Discussion in 'Nogizaka46 News & Releases' started by caramujo, Dec 27, 2012.

  1. caramujo

    caramujo Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Nogizaka46 - 5th Single [Kimi no Na wa Kibou] - 『君の名は希望』
    13/03/13
    Sony Music Records

    Pre-order links
    (First Press Limited Edition of Types A, B and C comes with a national handshake event ticket (1, 2) + 1 random photo [33 different photos per type = 99 photos]; there's no bonus on the CD Only version; the theater edition, orderable only via chara-ani (requires a Japanese address) is the same as the CD Only edition but with an individual handshake event ticket.

    Type A (CD+DVD) - SRCL-8253~4 - AmazonCDJapanHMVYesAsia (¥ 1,600)
    [​IMG]
    【CD】
    1. Kimi no Na wa Kibou (君の名は希望)
    2. Shaki-ism (シャキイズム)
    3. Romantic Ikayaki (ロマンティックいか焼き)
    4~6. off-vocals
    【DVD】

    Type B (CD+DVD) - SRCL-8255~6 - AmazonCDJapanHMVYesAsia (¥ 1,600)
    [​IMG]
    【CD】
    1. Kimi no Na wa Kibou (君の名は希望)
    2. Shaki-ism (シャキイズム)
    3. 13nichi no Kin'youbi (13日の金曜日)
    4~6. off-vocals
    【DVD】

    Type C (CD+DVD) - SRCL-8257~8 - AmazonCDJapanHMVYesAsia (¥ 1,600)
    [​IMG]
    【CD】
    1. Kimi no Na wa Kibou (君の名は希望)
    2. Shaki-ism (シャキイズム)
    3. Dekopin (でこぴん)
    4~6. off-vocals
    【DVD】

    CD Only - SRCL-8259 - AmazonCDJapanHMVYesAsia (¥ 1,000)
    [​IMG]
    【CD】
    1. Kimi no Na wa Kibou (君の名は希望)
    2. Shaki-ism (シャキイズム)
    3. Psychokinesis no Kanousei (サイコキネシスの可能性)
    4~6. off-vocals


    Senbatsu
    (Announced on 「Nogizakatte, Doko?」 2013.01.06)
    [​IMG]
    Ito Nene Nakada Kana Inoue Sayuri Nishino Nanase Wakatsuki Yumi Fukagawa Mai Nagashima Seira Takayama Kazumi
    Sakurai Reika Hashimoto Nanami Shiraishi Mai Matsumura Sayuri Akimoto Manatsu
    Ikuta Erika Ikoma Rina Hoshino Minami
    • : Ito Nene, Nakada Kana, Nagashima Seira
      : Ichiki Rena, Saito Asuka, Noujou Ami

    Hachi Fukujin: Akimoto Manatsu, Ikuta Erika, Ikoma Rina, Sakurai Reika, Shiraishi Mai, Hashimoto Nanami, Hoshino Minami, Matsumura Sayuri


    ・ Romantic Ikayaki (16): Kimi no Na wa Kibou senbatsu

    ・ Shaki-ism (32): All (minus Ichiki)

    ・ Dekopin (5): Shiraishi Mai, Takayama Kazumi, Hashimoto Nanami, Fukagawa Mai, Matsumura Sayuri

    ・ 13nichi no Kin'youbi (17): Under Members: Ando Mikumo, Eto Misa, Ichiki Rena, Ito Marika, Kashiwa Yukina, Kawago Hina, Kawamura Mahiro, Saito Asuka, Saito Chiharu, Saito Yuri, Nakamoto Himeka, Noujou Ami, Miyazawa Seira, Hatanaka Seira, Higuchi Hina, Wada Maaya, Yamato Rina

    ・ Psychokinesis no Kanousei (8): Akimoto Manatsu, Ito Nene, Inoue Sayuri, Sakurai Reika, Nakada Kana, Nagashima Seira, Nishino Nanase, Wakatsuki Yumi


    (Pass: stage48)
    - Kimi no Na wa Kibou MV short ver. - Released 2013.02.14 on the official Youtube channel
    [vimeo]http://vimeo.com/59628564[/vimeo]
    External link
    - Kimi no Na wa Kibou MV 20 min. - released 2013.02.17 official Youtube channel
    [vimeo]http://vimeo.com/59843763[/vimeo]
    External link
    - Shaki-ism MV - released 2013.03.04 official Youtube channel
    [vimeo]http://vimeo.com/60955846[/vimeo]
    External link
    - 13nichi no Kinyoubi MV - released 2013.03.04 official Youtube channel
    [vimeo]http://vimeo.com/60955847[/vimeo]
    External link
     
  2. kimunlimited

    kimunlimited Kenkyuusei Stage48 Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2011
    Oshimen:
    taniguchimegu
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Ugh, I'm still not done updating the girls thread first post, I'm doing it slowly because of work, and we already have a 5th single, I can't keep up. :fp:

    Wow, they sure are surging ahead faster than the other sister group. Hmm.. maybe next year they'll be in Kouhaku if this rise in sales and popularity continues.
     
  3. hinatan

    hinatan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Oshimen:
    kawagohina
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    yay
     
  4. caramujo

    caramujo Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2011
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    The senbatsu will be revealed on "Nogizakatte, Doko?" episode of January 6th (announced today on the 2nd show of the Zepp Live in Tokyo).

    Omg 3 months before...
     
  5. aryswisnu666

    aryswisnu666 Kenkyuusei

    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    this is just make my wallet empty faster, but it doesn't matter :hehe:
     
  6. Minoru

    Minoru Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2012
    Location:
    Imagination is Everything
    Twitter:
    ryoojane
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    just wish more surprises in this single [hehe]
     
  7. SugarYumYum

    SugarYumYum Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2010
    Location:
    Nogizaka Station
    Oshimen:
    tashimameru
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    FUCK YES [rock]

    Their release pattern looks more like NMB's 4 singles a year and less like SKE's "3" and as long as they can keep the quality of the singles going then I'm all for it. Can't get too ahead of myself... but now I'm wondering if we'll get an album before next year's end since they'll definitely reach the 7/8th single mark soon.
     
  8. Noriega

    Noriega Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    YES CANT WAIT FOR THIS SINGLE!!

    I'm hoping to be thrown another curveball for this single as well :music:
     
  9. ryandtw

    ryandtw Rank 81-100 (Temporary Name)

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2010
    Location:
    Seattle, WA, USA
    Twitter:
    ryandtw_jpop
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    New single already...!?

    I'm not ready for this yet...!
     
  10. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2012
    Twitter:
    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    I am happy to see a new single planed already! [party]
    Jan 6th is a surprisingly early date to release the senbatsu thou. I guess this make it a good time to do an analysis of what I would like to see for the next senbatsu & of what I think would be best for Nogizaka.

    I probably shouldn't be talking about a personally desired senbatsu thou... :^^;: while Seifuku turn out to be a great single, it's senbatsu announcement was the most heart-breaking thing for me for the year (& fandom), & high expectation didn't help lol.

    What that is written here will be entirely my personal opinion of course, feel free to constructively critique it!

    Before we get started, I am going to list some data references.
    Latest handshake result for Seifuku no Mannequin!
    [​IMG]
    Handshake result for Hashire! Bicycle.
    [​IMG]
    Mixi Ranking!
    [2012/12/19 mixiコミュニティ人数] (11/24比増减数)

    白石麻衣  5,014(+72)
    桥本奈々未 2,663(+12)
    松村沙友理 2,171(+21)
    生驹里奈  2,014(-3)
    生田絵梨花 1,392(+16)
    西野七瀬  1,051(+11)
    井上小百合 1,016(+6)
    高山一実   863(+14)
    斉藤优里   728(0)
    深川麻衣   607(+5)↑
    中田花奈   604(+1)
    桜井玲香   576(+8)
    畠中清罗   496(+1)
    斎藤飞鸟   419(+13)↑
    若月佑美   409(-7)
    星野みなみ  389(+5)
    市来玲奈   356(+1)
    柏幸奈    349(+3)
    伊藤万理华  324(+12)
    秋元真夏   299(+28)
    卫藤美彩   265(0)
    永岛圣罗   253(0)
    大和里菜   251(+2)
    伊藤宁々   240(+5)
    川村真洋   225(+4)
    能条爱未   223(+6)
    中元日芽香  195(0)
    川后阳菜   168(+6)
    宫泽成良   158(+2)
    安藤美云   152(+1)
    斎藤ちはる  102(+1)
    樋口日奈    95(-1)
    和田まあや   76(+3)
    the Parco Stage voting results:
    @ [STAGE] Nogizaka46 1st [16nin no Principal] 12/09/01 ~ 09/09

    & lastly a random voting page from a random Japanese Nogizaka blog! (one vote per ip)
    @ http://nogizaka46.nobody.jp/result.html

    Seifuku senbatsu composition:

    So first off, I want to talk about non-k8 senbatsu:
    As of this date, 1/3 of Nogizaka members have as of yet to enter senbatsu even once. These members are: Ando Mikumo, Ito Nene, Eto Misa, Kashiwa Yukina, Kawago Hina, Saito Chiharu, Nakamoto Himeka, Nagashima Seira, Niguchi Hina, Yamato Rina, & Wada Maaya. Personally I would like to see these members be eased into senbatsu over the next two singles or so. I believe that as founding members of Nogizaka, they should at least be given a chance to showcase themselves in the front row. I think promoting these members can motivate them in showing that hard work can be reward, & I also believe many fans would like to see these members be given some opportunities as well.

    How do we decide who to promote, who not to? & the most terrible question, who to demote? Personally, I think these 11 members should be divided into two groups, each group will consist of an roughly equal amount of members who are more popular, & members who are unfortunately not. This is to make sure that there is at least a high enough medium of popularity in senbatsu. There are two members in this group that imho deserve special mentions, these members are:

    Eto Misa
    The one member who has been consistently popular in most respect, yet never entered senbatsu. Misamisa has racked in lot of cash so far with her good handshake result, placed respectably in Parco, & was voted most desired undergirl to enter senbatsu prior to Seifuku. All things consider she is probably more popular than many of the regular senbatsu girls even. Her model experience before entering Nogizaka & the fact she currently have her own music show only make her an even more stellar senbatsu candidate. I would give her a priority order for members to enter senbatsu, & would hate to lose such a talent.

    Kashiwa Yukina
    Yukina also brought in an impressive resume when she entered Nogizaka. As far as I know, when she was young she at least starred in a commercial, played a minor role in some sort of Power Ranger drama, & had a few magazine shoots. She was also a former MomoCloZ member too. My personal observation is that she is the most talk about undergirl, & this is despite her rather inactive nature! She also seems to be someone fans don't mind seeing airdropping too, by my observation at least. I consider her a wildcard because she just announced that she was entered into an university on her blog not too long ago. This might mean she now have more spare time for Nogizaka, or that she will get busier (she like micro-organism so her subject might be intensive), or this university might not be her number one choice even, & she had to prepare more for another entrance exam & is just as busy as before. I would like to see her promoted, but it really heavily depends on her schooling.

    I would like to talk a little bit about other members too,
    Ando Mikumo
    She can speak relatively fluent English, sold out a block in Hashire! Bicycle's hs results, & ranked in the Parco stage three times! I think she's has good mc skill & maybe Nogizaka can make use of this.

    Kawago Hina
    Imo, Hina speaks really really well based on what I saw in Koko. Sadly popularity-wise she seems like one of the weakest. However, she is really really young (14 y.o. & younger than Hoshino!) She looks really mature for her young age (sort of like Jurina I guess.) Management have a preference for younger members it seems, if so, they should make better use of Hina, & I think she will turn out to be an valuable asset to Nogizaka.

    Nakamoto Himeka
    Himeka have some idol group experience prior to Nogizaka too! Also, her sister is Nakamoto Suzuka, leader of Sakura Gakuen & BABYMETAL (which btw, their most recent youtube vid for their upcoming single is gaining a lot of views.) Maybe they can do a collaboration?

    Nagashima Seira
    She already sold out one block for Seifuku handshake, & there's still a lot of rounds to go. She also sold out one block for Hashire! Bicycle.

    The other members I do not know too much about unfortunately. But just by the above I think it is fair to conclude these undergirls are fairly talented & should at least be able to showcase themselves once. As for demotion, I will talk about that in a separate section later.

    It getting late. :fp: I will talk about Hachifukujin, centreship, & demotion tmr :^^;: . Maybe on the same post, maybe separate. Once again, these are my personal opinion, feel free to critique them constructively!

    I am back! Next, lets discuss Hachifukujin.
    Nine maximum k8 positions are potentially available imo. Since Sakurai is the captain, she can potentially not be included in k8 & still retain fukujin-like status like in Hashire! Bicycle. That leave a maximum of eight spots + captaincy.

    I will list some of who I think are potential candidates for Fukujins, first with members that never was one before:
    Fukagawa Mai
    Maimai currently has momentum imo. She currently have three blocks sold out already in the latest hs results, ranked 9th in blocks sold out in Hashire! Bicycle, ranked in respectable numbers in Parco all but once, & ranks 10th in mixi. My observation is that she is rising above mid-tier & is now between top-tier & mid. She also didn't make senbatsu for the first two singles, so putting her in Fukujin looks rather balanced in terms of fairness.

    Inoue Sayurin
    Sayunyan was sort of like the Misamisa of senbatsu, in that she always has a decent enough popularity, but never made k8. Unfortunately momentum is not on her side it seems, & I believe the opposite is true. Inoue currently has one block sold out in latest hs result, & one block sold out in Hashire! Bicycle. This is a drop I believe since I heard she was among the top in the early days of Nogizaka. Even with negative momentum however, Inoue is still solidly in mid-tier. She is 7th in mixi ranking, & ranked rather impressively in Parco (ranking in all but once, with highest result being 4th!) All in all, giving her a go at fukujin only seems fair imo.

    Eto Misa
    The reason listed above for why she should be in senbatsu is also applicable to fukujin. Misamisa's popularity is at least solidly mid-tier, & looking only at hs results she has top eight popularity. Some might think jumping from undergirl to k8 is to huge a jump, personally this don't bother me thou.

    Kashiwa Yukina
    This will create a lot of buzz methink, & management seems to love buzz. The reasoning will be really similar to airdropping Manatsu than, & many fans to seems accepting of her air-dropping to k8. Personally I would like to see her give a try at senbatsu thou, & if she can make the most of it than promote her to k8. The possibility of Yukina airdropping into k8 should not be discounted thou methink.

    Saito Asuka
    In the 48/46 families, my observation is that there is pattern where older above-18 y.o. members are usually more popular than their under-18 peers, & I think this is even more true in Nogizaka. I think Nogizaka management really like to push under-18 members, & this is a possible reason. Ashurin is one of the more popular member among the younger generation, behind only Ikuchan & Ikoma imo. So if management want to push someone young, she is a choice. Popularity-wise, I think she is at the lower end of mid-tier. She also served two rounds with undergirls, one can argue is rather fair. Personally I don't see her entering k8 thou, but it is a possibility.

    Wakatsuki Yumi
    Myuumyuu is solidly mid-tier by my observation. She had 3 blocks sold out in Hashire! Bicycle, 2 blocks so far for Seifuku, ranked in all Parco result (highest 6th place), & seems a rather all-rounded member. Placing her in should be similar to placing Kanarin in for Oide Shampoo than.


    There are also some potential returning members, for good reasons.
    Nishino Nanase
    Naachan is experiencing the greatest surge in popularity ever among Nogizaka members imo. Already in the last single's hs result, she was pulling in 12 blocks sold, slightly ahead of Kazumin & 4th overall. For the latest hs result, she does even better! Ranking solidly 4th with 10 blocks sold already, & is stably between the top trio (almost sold out 25/25), & her closest competitor (Ikuchan @ 5th with 6 block sold.) Her mixi is also experience rapid rise, & she ranked top 8 in Parco all but once (with highest result being 5th twice, lowest being a 9th.) All in all, popularity-wise I can quite confidently say she is solidly 4th as of this day, & it would make sense for her to return to k8.

    Takayama Kazumin
    Kazumin is much loved by Nogizaka fans in general imo, & I think that is why she ranked 2nd overall in Parco. By this I mean that even thou she might not have the most oshis, she is the 2nd or 3rd oshis of many fans. It is probably fair to say she is the undisputed funniest member in Nogizaka, & we all know & love her \Amazing!/ I think. She is also a very good singer (funny how her vocal sound nothing like the way she talks lol). Momentum-wise, her trend is sort of shaped like a "V" it seems. Initially she was one of the powerhouse, in the top five I believe, but by the 2nd single have falter with what I heard was abysmal hs results (& this is maybe why she got dropped for Hashire! Bicycle). By the third single however, her HS result pulled respectably once again, & she got 5th overall with 11 blocks sold (behind Naachan & above Misamisas's eight sold out.) Her great HS result for the 3rd single + her superior results for Parco led to many fans expecting her return to k8, which didn't happen, & was a tremendous disappointment for many fans. Right now, she is pulling in 3 blocks sold, behind the top trio, Nanase & Ikuchan. So maybe her momentun have stalled once again. All things considered however, Kazumin is definitely a premier candidates for k8 imo.

    In conclusion, I think it is fair to say there's a lot of candidates for us to move around k8 a bit. Maximizing k8 to k9 might make it easier too. Once again, the hard & important question is "who to demote?" I will discuss all demotions at the last section. Next up, let's talk about centreship.

    So next up, let talk about centreship.
    Just to clarify first, by centre I mean the absolute centre, the one position occupied by one person only, not including the two vice-centres. Before I start analyzing prospective candidates, we must first determine what criteria do we want to use to decided a centre. Personally, I have saw all sort of reasons being proposed by individual fans to suit their oshi (I was probably guilty of this too lol), which is perfectly understandable. I want to try to be impartial thou, so I'm going to try to analyze what is best for Nogizaka. Specifically, I think this means reflecting merit (popularity + talent), form consensus, & be an attention grabber for Nogizaka. I will also be making reference to the centreship situation in the other 48 family groups too.

    So who do I think are potential candidates? Personally I think they are: Ikoma Rina, Ikuta Erika, Shiraishi Maiyan, Hashimoto Nanami, & Matsumura Sayurin. Let's start of Ikoma first.

    Ikoma Rina
    Ikoma have been centre since the founding of Nogizaka. Personally I think Ikoma's style fitted better with Seifuku compares to Nogizaka's previous singles. I also recognize that Ikoma have consistently been trying her best, & is very genuine in her interactions.
    Personally I would like to see a different centre however. It is my personal opinion that Ikoma is one of the most controversial centre of all 46/48 centres unfortunately. Controversy does create buzz, & management seems to like buzz imo. I do think some buzz is good for the groups. Nonetheless, having consistent controversy dividing the fans is not something I think that is beneficial to the group as a whole. Another unfortunate things about Ikoma is that her popularity seems to be lagging these days (a source of the controversy methink.) She ranked 7th in Hashire! Bicycle hs results, have mixed result for Parco, was voted behind multiple members in the blog page, & currently have only one block sold out for seifuku. Certainly Ikoma have many talent, but her popularity is sadly lagging these days. In my experience, Ikoma doesn't seems to be an attention grabber for Nogizaka too, as most of the fans seems to have their interest raised in Nogizaka by Maiyan.
    I don't want this to be interpreted as a disapproval of Ikoma, but rather a desire that other members be given a chance to shine as centre. Ikoma is very unique among Nogizaka members, & offers something other members don't. She definitely have a place among Nogizaka, but that place sadly is not centreship for me.

    Ikuta Erika
    Ikuchan seems to always been touted as the alternative centre other than Ikoma, & I think this stem from her various talent. I think it is fair to say she is probably the most talented member is the 48/46 family, & many fans seem to want this to be rewarded. Ikuchan's popularity by my estimate is among top tier, but below the top trio & Nanase at least. She might have a lot of 2nd/3rd oshi like Kazumin, which might explain why she is always touted as the alternative centre.
    Once one get to know her, I think she's definitely an attention grabber just because of her sheer amount of talents. However I think just by looking at her, she doesn't really grab attention, as it take times to get to know her appeal.

    Shiraishi Mai
    All things considered, I think Maiyan actually have a very strong case to be made centre. Popularity-wise, she is the undisputed queen of Nogizaka. She is rather talented in many ways, including singing, but isn't top-notch is them thou methink. She grabs attention like crazy, as I have seems sooo many people that got converted into Nogizaka just because of her.
    I think there's a lot of illogical argument against her centering. Her relatively taller height is mentioned, but Jurina & Rena are among the tallest of SKE members & are arguably two of the most qualified centres. Her age is mentioned, however Yuko & Rena are both older & performing very well, & Mariko is entering 27 & still doing fine. It is said that her aura will leave little attention to other members, but I dare say Sayanee, Milky, Jurina, Rena, & Yuko are all centres with strong aura, & this doesn't effect their qualifications.
    All in all, I think Maiyan has a stronger case for centering than Ikuchan & Ikoma actually. Her centering on the CDTV special was exceptional too, & I would be happy to see more of that happening.

    Matsumura Sayuri & Hashimoto Nanami
    Both Sayurin & Nanamin have top-notch popularity. Sayurin might seems rather goofy, but I think she can talk very well in different circumstances without exhibiting nervousness. She can grab attention for sure (althou some might be annoyed by her constant attention-grabbing.) & she looked very impressive to me in her Seifuku performances. Nanamin looks prettier the longer I get to see her, but inversely she doesn't grab my attention initially (& some of my friend agrees, small sample size thou.) I think there's a case to be made for both members, althou methink their case is weaker than Maiyan & Ikuchan.

    So in conclusion, I think there's a lot of room for change in regard to centreship. Frankly speaking, I think we can even make cases for Nanase & Kazumin to be center. In an ideal world, I would like to see rotating centres, with each single having different centres based on different style of musi. This is not likely to happen thou. Another more possible idea is to have two co-centre, much like Sayanee & Milky for NMB, Jurina & Rena for SKE, Jurina & Yuko for Uza.

    Lastly, I'm going to talk about demotion, the cruel & hardest question.
    Ideally it would be nice if there is not question of demotion. However, in order to make space for undergirl, space need to be created. So here I will try to talk about who should be considered demoted first based on merit (popularity & talent, more so on popularity), & of course I will try to be impartial.

    Noujou Ami
    Ami have entered senbatsu twice, & is definitely one of the weaker senbatsu member, popularity-wise.

    Saito Asuka
    While Ashurin is rather high in popularity among younger members, the younger members as a whole is very much behind the older members in popularity, & Ashurin is imo a lower-level mid-tier. This open her spot up unfortunately.

    Ichiki Rena
    Rena have the strongest case for removal methink sadly. While she is tremendously talented in dancing & her schooling, her popularity is clearly on a downward flow, & she is by my estimate on the upper-low tier in popularity. Another case for her demotion is her having been in senbatsu consecutively four times already.

    Wakatsuki Yumi
    Myuumyuu is solidly mid-tier. This put her closer to the undergirl line than it is to the fukujin line unfortunately when it comes to popularity. I think demoting her wouldn't be a wise case however, as she has somehow mange to get herself quite a few oppurtunities, so should have upward momentum. She also didn't made senbatsu twice.

    Inoue Sayuri
    With her weaker popularity these days, even by mid-tier standard, she is definitely one of the more vulnerable members. Imo however, not allowing her fukujin status when she was more popular, & now stripping her senbatsu status when she is less so would make it seems like a cruel joke, especially for her. I personally wouldn't want to see her demote, even thou I don't really follow her.

    Akimoto Manatsu
    Handshake-wise, she seems to be doing well these day, recording 3 blocks sold out as of the latest Seifuku results. However, she did airdrop into k8 while other members were working sweat & tears. I personally don't think she really shined from her exposure so far, & looks out of placed compared to the other fukujin, but that is my personal opinion. I can see her dropping to senbatsu, but I think there's a case to be made to her to drop to undergirls.

    Hoshino Minami
    Minami holds a special place in my heart, as she is the one who first ignited my attention in Nogizaka in the first place. However, she have a very strong case to be made for demotion. I think the strong push she has been receiving is doing her much much more harm than good. Her popularity have not risen much if at all despite the immense amount of exposure she received. Rather, I think she is gaining an impressive amount of haters. I think she would make a nice undergirl centre, but realistically I don't see her falling below senbatsu.
     
  11. hinatan

    hinatan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Oshimen:
    kawagohina
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    OMG.. the Manattan poll! I almost choked on my own spit!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
    I agree about 1500% RUST!

    Personally, I would prefer Manattan in Undergirls to be quite honest.. I heard that she only started training in April whilst everyone else was working their asses off! She just comes straight into fukujin8 and then gets a solo spread in a magazine like what the hell!

    as for Yukiina, I don't want her to enter senbatsu solely for the reason that she missed out a quarter of the year of activities..and that isn't quite fair to the other undergirls. Still, I would be happy if she made it as well! I am just sick of the same girls making it. There is not much time left since the 2nd gen is coming and it won't be unlikely that one of them will get the favor of aki-p..

    I am just praying for Kawago's push because shes my oshimen and she's young and shy so she doesn't have much backbone to push her into popularity.. Her thread on 2ch is the least popular one right now too :/. I'm just sick of old girls repeatedly entering senbatsu. as I said, theres a whole 2nd gen coming and the competition will be even more unfair.

    what I want:
    Center: Ikoma/Ikuchan
    8Fukujin: Same but minus Manattan and add back Kazumin..
    Ichiki --> Misa
    Asuka --> Kawago/Higuchi
    Ami --> Nene/Mikumo
    Wakatsuki --> Himeka/Nagashima
    Minami (UG Center) --> "Any of the above"
    Manatsu --> "Any of the above"
     
  12. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
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    Twitter:
    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    I am back! What that is written below I also added to my above post!

    So, lets discuss Hachifukujin.
    Nine maximum k8 positions are potentially available imo. Since Sakurai is the captain, she can potentially not be included in k8 & still retain fukujin-like status like in Hashire! Bicycle. That leave a maximum of eight spots + captaincy.

    I will list some of who I think are potential candidates for Fukujins, first with members that never was one before:
    Fukagawa Mai
    Maimai currently has momentum imo. She currently have three blocks sold out already in the latest hs results, ranked 9th in blocks sold out in Hashire! Bicycle, ranked in respectable numbers in Parco all but once, & ranks 10th in mixi. My observation is that she is rising above mid-tier & is now between top-tier & mid. She also didn't make senbatsu for the first two singles, so putting her in Fukujin looks rather balanced in terms of fairness.

    Inoue Sayurin
    Sayunyan was sort of like the Misamisa of senbatsu, in that she always has a decent enough popularity, but never made k8. Unfortunately momentum is not on her side it seems, & I believe the opposite is true. Inoue currently has one block sold out in latest hs result, & one block sold out in Hashire! Bicycle. This is a drop I believe since I heard she was among the top in the early days of Nogizaka. Even with negative momentum however, Inoue is still solidly in mid-tier. She is 7th in mixi ranking, & ranked rather impressively in Parco (ranking in all but once, with highest result being 4th!) All in all, giving her a go at fukujin only seems fair imo.

    Eto Misa
    The reason listed above for why she should be in senbatsu is also applicable to fukujin. Misamisa's popularity is at least solidly mid-tier, & looking only at hs results she has top eight popularity. Some might think jumping from undergirl to k8 is to huge a jump, personally this don't bother me thou.

    Kashiwa Yukina
    This will create a lot of buzz methink, & management seems to love buzz. The reasoning will be really similar to airdropping Manatsu than, & many fans to seems accepting of her air-dropping to k8. Personally I would like to see her give a try at senbatsu thou, & if she can make the most of it than promote her to k8. The possibility of Yukina airdropping into k8 should not be discounted thou methink.

    Saito Asuka
    In the 48/46 families, my observation is that there is pattern where older above-18 y.o. members are usually more popular than their under-18 peers, & I think this is even more true in Nogizaka. I think Nogizaka management really like to push under-18 members, & this is a possible reason. Ashurin is one of the more popular member among the younger generation, behind only Ikuchan & Ikoma imo. So if management want to push someone young, she is a choice. Popularity-wise, I think she is at the lower end of mid-tier. She also served two rounds with undergirls, one can argue is rather fair. Personally I don't see her entering k8 thou, but it is a possibility.

    Wakatsuki Yumi
    Myuumyuu is solidly mid-tier by my observation. She had 3 blocks sold out in Hashire! Bicycle, 2 blocks so far for Seifuku, ranked in all Parco result (highest 6th place), & seems a rather all-rounded member. Placing her in should be similar to placing Kanarin in for Oide Shampoo than.


    There are also some potential returning members, for good reasons.
    Nishino Nanase
    Naachan is experiencing the greatest surge in popularity ever among Nogizaka members imo. Already in the last single's hs result, she was pulling in 12 blocks sold, slightly ahead of Kazumin & 4th overall. For the latest hs result, she does even better! Ranking solidly 4th with 10 blocks sold already, & is stably between the top trio (almost sold out 25/25), & her closest competitor (Ikuchan @ 5th with 6 block sold.) Her mixi is also experience rapid rise, & she ranked top 8 in Parco all but once (with highest result being 5th twice, lowest being a 9th.) All in all, popularity-wise I can quite confidently say she is solidly 4th as of this day, & it would make sense for her to return to k8.

    Takayama Kazumin
    Kazumin is much loved by Nogizaka fans in general imo, & I think that is why she ranked 2nd overall in Parco. By this I mean that even thou she might not have the most oshis, she is the 2nd or 3rd oshis of many fans. It is probably fair to say she is the undisputed funniest member in Nogizaka, & we all know & love her \Amazing!/ I think. She is also a very good singer (funny how her vocal sound nothing like the way she talks lol). Momentum-wise, her trend is sort of shaped like a "V" it seems. Initially she was one of the powerhouse, in the top five I believe, but by the 2nd single have falter with what I heard was abysmal hs results (& this is maybe why she got dropped for Hashire! Bicycle). By the third single however, her HS result pulled respectably once again, & she got 5th overall with 11 blocks sold (behind Naachan & above Misamisas's eight sold out.) Her great HS result for the 3rd single + her superior results for Parco led to many fans expecting her return to k8, which didn't happen, & was a tremendous disappointment for many fans. Right now, she is pulling in 3 blocks sold, behind the top trio, Nanase & Ikuchan. So maybe her momentun have stalled once again. All things considered however, Kazumin is definitely a premier candidates for k8 imo.

    In conclusion, I think it is fair to say there's a lot of candidates for us to move around k8 a bit. Maximizing k8 to k9 might make it easier too. Once again, the hard & important question is "who to demote?" I will discuss all demotions at the last section. Next up, let's talk about centreship.
     
  13. SugarYumYum

    SugarYumYum Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2010
    Location:
    Nogizaka Station
    Oshimen:
    tashimameru
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Oh... I just made a post on ebiday about this lol so I'll just re-post my thoughts here:

    @rust: I'm glad I'm not the only one that feels that way about MisaMisa, I personally feel she definitely belongs in Hachifukujin. It almost feels like a cruel joke she's in UG's Kami 8 instead. At this point, the most realistic hope is that'll she be in bottom tier senbatsu. What is truly baffling to me though is why she isn't a regular senbatsu member anyway since she honestly belongs there more than quite a few 'regulars'. Mgmt seriously needs to wake up and stop shafting the older girls in favor of the young. It's fine they want to push the young ones but it's just not good business sense to have your more popular and older members in the back.

    Sayurin would be a refreshing choice for Kami 8, she's popular enough and would add a bit more flavor to the line up.

    ==================================

    About centreship: Like I said in the above post, I'm fine with Ikoma retaining her center spot and I want Hoshimina to center UG. But if mgmt does decide to experiment with centers here's what I'd like to see:

    Strictly based on popularity/general fan opinion: Shiraishi/Ikuta/Takayama, Matsumura or Nishino

    For a mass "shake up" and possibly more mature single: Nishino/Shiraishi/Takayama

    For a "cooler" image (ala Seifuku or RIVER), I'd extend center to four: Shiraishi/Ikoma/Ikuta/Hashimoto

    For something "light" and cute: Matsumura/Ikoma/Ikuta

    And the W Center everyone wants [hehe] : Hashimoto/Matsumura
     
  14. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2012
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    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Added centre section to my first post!

    So next up, let talk about centreship.
    Just to clarify first, by centre I mean the absolute centre, the one position occupied by one person only, not including the two vice-centres. Before I start analyzing prospective candidates, we must first determine what criteria do we want to use to decided a centre. Personally, I have saw all sort of reasons being proposed by individual fans to suit their oshi (I was probably guilty of this too lol), which is perfectly understandable. I want to try to be impartial thou, so I'm going to try to analyze what is best for Nogizaka. Specifically, I think this means reflecting merit (popularity + talent), form consensus, & be an attention grabber for Nogizaka. I will also be making reference to the centreship situation in the other 48 family groups too.

    So who do I think are potential candidates? Personally I think they are: Ikoma Rina, Ikuta Erika, Shiraishi Maiyan, Hashimoto Nanami, & Matsumura Sayurin. Let's start of Ikoma first.

    Ikoma Rina
    Ikoma have been centre since the founding of Nogizaka. Personally I think Ikoma's style fitted better with Seifuku compares to Nogizaka's previous singles. I also recognize that Ikoma have consistently been trying her best, & is very genuine in her interactions.
    Personally I would like to see a different centre however. It is my personal opinion that Ikoma is one of the most controversial centre of all 46/48 centres unfortunately. Controversy does create buzz, & management seems to like buzz imo. I do think some buzz is good for the groups. Nonetheless, having consistent controversy dividing the fans is not something I think that is beneficial to the group as a whole. Another unfortunate things about Ikoma is that her popularity seems to be lagging these days (a source of the controversy methink.) She ranked 7th in Hashire! Bicycle hs results, have mixed result for Parco, was voted behind multiple members in the blog page, & currently have only one block sold out for seifuku. Certainly Ikoma have many talent, but her popularity is sadly lagging these days. In my experience, Ikoma doesn't seems to be an attention grabber for Nogizaka too, as most of the fans seems to have their interest raised in Nogizaka by Maiyan.
    I don't want this to be interpreted as a disapproval of Ikoma, but rather a desire that other members be given a chance to shine as centre. Ikoma is very unique among Nogizaka members, & offers something other members don't. She definitely have a place among Nogizaka, but that place sadly is not centreship for me.

    Ikuta Erika
    Ikuchan seems to always been touted as the alternative centre other than Ikoma, & I think this stem from her various talent. I think it is fair to say she is probably the most talented member is the 48/46 family, & many fans seem to want this to be rewarded. Ikuchan's popularity by my estimate is among top tier, but below the top trio & Nanase at least. She might have a lot of 2nd/3rd oshi like Kazumin, which might explain why she is always touted as the alternative centre.
    Once one get to know her, I think she's definitely an attention grabber just because of her sheer amount of talents. However I think just by looking at her, she doesn't really grab attention, as it take times to get to know her appeal.

    Shiraishi Mai
    All things considered, I think Maiyan actually have a very strong case to be made centre. Popularity-wise, she is the undisputed queen of Nogizaka. She is rather talented in many ways, including singing, but isn't top-notch is them thou methink. She grabs attention like crazy, as I have seems sooo many people that got converted into Nogizaka just because of her.
    I think there's a lot of illogical argument against her centering. Her relatively taller height is mentioned, but Jurina & Rena are among the tallest of SKE members & are arguably two of the most qualified centres. Her age is mentioned, however Yuko & Rena are both older & performing very well, & Mariko is entering 27 & still doing fine. It is said that her aura will leave little attention to other members, but I dare say Sayanee, Milky, Jurina, Rena, & Yuko are all centres with strong aura, & this doesn't effect their qualifications.
    All in all, I think Maiyan has a stronger case for centering than Ikuchan & Ikoma actually. Her centering on the CDTV special was exceptional too, & I would be happy to see more of that happening.

    Matsumura Sayuri & Hashimoto Nanami
    Both Sayurin & Nanamin have top-notch popularity. Sayurin might seems rather goofy, but I think she can talk very well in different circumstances without exhibiting nervousness. She can grab attention for sure (althou some might be annoyed by her constant attention-grabbing.) & she looked very impressive to me in her Seifuku performances. Nanamin looks prettier the longer I get to see her, but inversely she doesn't grab my attention initially (& some of my friend agrees, small sample size thou.) I think there's a case to be made for both members, althou methink their case is weaker than Maiyan & Ikuchan.

    So in conclusion, I think there's a lot of room for change in regard to centreship. Frankly speaking, I think we can even make cases for Nanase & Kazumin to be center. In an ideal world, I would like to see rotating centres, with each single having different centres based on different style of musi. This is not likely to happen thou. Another more possible idea is to have two co-centre, much like Sayanee & Milky for NMB, Jurina & Rena for SKE, Jurina & Yuko for Uza.
     
  15. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2012
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    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Lastly, I'm going to talk about demotion, the cruel & hardest question.
    Ideally it would be nice if there is not question of demotion. However, in order to make space for undergirl, space need to be created. So here I will try to talk about who should be considered demoted first based on merit (popularity & talent, more so on popularity), & of course I will try to be impartial.

    Noujou Ami
    Ami have entered senbatsu twice, & is definitely one of the weaker senbatsu member, popularity-wise.

    Saito Asuka
    While Ashurin is rather high in popularity among younger members, the younger members as a whole is very much behind the older members in popularity, & Ashurin is imo a lower-level mid-tier. This open her spot up unfortunately.

    Ichiki Rena
    Rena have the strongest case for removal methink sadly. While she is tremendously talented in dancing & her schooling, her popularity is clearly on a downward flow, & she is by my estimate on the upper-low tier in popularity. Another case for her demotion is her having been in senbatsu consecutively four times already.

    Wakatsuki Yumi
    Myuumyuu is solidly mid-tier. This put her closer to the undergirl line than it is to the fukujin line unfortunately when it comes to popularity. I think demoting her wouldn't be a wise case however, as she has somehow mange to get herself quite a few oppurtunities, so should have upward momentum. She also didn't made senbatsu twice.

    Inoue Sayuri
    With her weaker popularity these days, even by mid-tier standard, she is definitely one of the more vulnerable members. Imo however, not allowing her fukujin status when she was more popular, & now stripping her senbatsu status when she is less so would make it seems like a cruel joke, especially for her. I personally wouldn't want to see her demote, even thou I don't really follow her.

    Akimoto Manatsu
    Handshake-wise, she seems to be doing well these day, recording 3 blocks sold out as of the latest Seifuku results. However, she did airdrop into k8 while other members were working sweat & tears. I personally don't think she really shined from her exposure so far, & looks out of placed compared to the other fukujin, but that is my personal opinion. I can see her dropping to senbatsu, but I think there's a case to be made to her to drop to undergirls.

    Hoshino Minami
    Minami holds a special place in my heart, as she is the one who first ignited my attention in Nogizaka in the first place. However, she have a very strong case to be made for demotion. I think the strong push she has been receiving is doing her much much more harm than good. Her popularity have not risen much if at all despite the immense amount of exposure she received. Rather, I think she is gaining an impressive amount of haters. I think she would make a nice undergirl centre, but realistically I don't see her falling below senbatsu.
     
  16. Anonymous

    Anonymous Guest

    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    ikuchan for center!!!! :^^;:

    my hachifukujin:

    -ikuchan
    -ikoma
    -maiyan
    -ringo
    -nanamin
    -reika
    -maimai
    &

    -kazumin \o/

    i'm hoping that my oshi (himetan) will enter senbatsu one day~

    maybe someday! :^^;:
     
  17. SugarYumYum

    SugarYumYum Kenkyuusei

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    Oct 9, 2010
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    Nogizaka Station
    Oshimen:
    tashimameru
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Demotion:

    AmiAmi: I believe she will be the one to get demoted given her popularity is definitely the weakest of current senbatsu but she's experienced some of the more respectable jumps in Mixi which I think may be due to her goofy, attention grabbing ways on NogiDoko. In HS results, while she's below mid-tier, she is a respectable distant from last and I suspect if she continues to get exposure she'll rise at her own pace. Perhaps, I'm biased since she is my Kami-oshi but I wouldn't mind if they kept her in senbatsu at least once more to see if there's a possible upward trend on the horizon. That said, I also would not mind seeing her demoted to make room for a new senbatsu entry so either possibility is fine.

    Ashurin: I don't think she will be dropped but I've been much of the same opinion about her as I feel with Hoshimina. The young members should be leading UG. Let the older more popular members hold down senbatsu for a while. Plus, allowing their young girls to lead UG will help polish their skills and build their own chemistry so the eventual succession of their senpai down the road will go much more fluidly than the situation in AKB48 right now.

    Rena: I don't think she will be dropped either but at this point, she really should be. 4 times senbatsu (and probably going on a 5th) and much like Hoshimina, she hasn't grabbed the attention to really justify her incumbent place in senbatsu. At best, she's better fit for the UG Kami tier (and even that is being generous). She's talented yes but it's time to stop her push for a while and give another girl a few consecutive chances (imo, Mahiro would fill that void nicely).

    MyuMyu should stay right where she is. Even coming into the group with scandal, she's managed to gain a respectable amount of popularity and though a bit quiet, she has a strong, unique aura that I fill senbatsu would really miss. I feel she'll be one of the members to experience a significant spike of popularity in the future so they shouldn't demote her yet. I'd say it's enough to have her in back line senbatsu for now and perhaps rotate her back up to Kami level in a future single.

    Sayurin: She'll perhaps be pushed a bit further back but I don't see her leaving senbatsu any time soon and will be quite surprised if she did. I mentioned before, that I would actually like to see her in Hachifukujin at least once to test the waters. It could bring back some of the attention she lost as well.

    Manattsun: She's another one who's current popularity is Top UG level at best but I don't see mgmt pulling back on their decision to push her so soon. They shouldn't either, since her impressive HS and Mixi results show her push is actually working (unlike say, Hoshimina and Rena). She shouldn't be dropped from senbatsu for now unless she comes to a stand still or loses popularity. I do agree, she does look odd with Hachifukujin, I'd like to see her dropped from Kami8 for someone who is a much better fit image and popularity wise.

    Hoshimina... I remember someone on this forum pointed out (I believe it was Ozu) that her situation is really odd given her loli looks. How can a girl that looks like she does not attract an army of wota at her heels? Looking at her co-centers, her situation is even more clear: Ikoma and Ikuchan cannot claim to be the most popular members, yet both are still within Hachifukujin level popularity (4~7th place) so their positions can be somewhat justified. Only she is hovering in UG tier popularity. I think her very quiet personality is one problem and her push is the biggest problem. I actually feel she has received the most push of all the members so far without any real reason behind it and the fans have already been impatient with it since Day 1. She arguably has the most anti at this point, and her fans have yet to outnumber them as even Ikoma with her anti could still get voted into Parco. Hoshimina didn't make it not even once. I feel mgmt thinks "if we just keep her there longer..." but I honestly think it's just going to make the situation worse. She's the type of member that can benefit from a moderate push, I fear this "force-feeding" is only going to continue to hurt her more than help if it doesn't stop.
     
  18. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2012
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    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    @ Hinatan
    I'm glad to see we are in agreement here. :)
    I also want to Hina getting pushed, I really think senbatsu could use some of her speaking skill.

    @ SugarYumYum
    Good day Sugar! I think we generally in agreement too. :)
    I am in total agreement with your myuumyuu point! Althou I think she is vulnerable to being demoted, merit-wise she ought not to imo. I also think she kind of have a leadership aura, & she took on a hosting role for Nogikoko's first episode too btw.

    One correction thou, regarding Minami not making Parco even once. She actually did. :p
    But she barely did thou, & it does not warrant her push in any ways. So I'm in total agreement with your point otherwise.
     
  19. rust

    rust Kenkyuusei Retired Staff

    Joined:
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    Rusted_Van
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    5th Single Senbatsu announced:
    Akimotno Manatsu, Ikuta Erika, Ikoma Rina, Itou Nene, Inoue Sayuri, Sakurai Reika, Shiraishi Mai, Takayama Kazumi, Nagashima Seira, Nakada Kana, Nishino Nanas, Hashimoto Nanami, Fukagawa Mai, Hoshino Minami, Matsumura Sayuri, Wakatsuki Yumi.

    ↑: Itou Nene, Nagashima Seira, Nakada Kana
    ↓: Saito Asuka, Nojou Ami, Ichiki Rena

    Hashifukujin & Centres are basically the completely same...
    Akimoto Manatsu, Ikuta Erika, Ikoma Rina, Sakurai Reika, Shiraishi Mai, Hashimoto Nanami, Hoshino Minami, Matsumura Sayuri

    Absolute Centre: Ikoma Rina

    Side Centres: Ikuta Erika, Hoshino Minami
     
  20. hinatan

    hinatan Kenkyuusei

    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2012
    Oshimen:
    kawagohina
    Re: [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th Single [Title TBD] '13/03/13

    Im happy for nene and seirarins first senbatsu, overall not so much since i watched nogidoko with high expectations for the groups foundation being changed

    Mainly b/c with every single the fukujin members or centers are switched around, and this time its exactly the same as Seifuku no mannequin..which means that those same girls will be representatives for the majority of Nogizaka for a loooooooooooooong time. I guess that can be a good thing if you like Hoshimina being in the center or Manattan in hachifukujin..
     

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