Single [SINGLE] Nogizaka46 5th [Kimi no Na wa Kibou] '13/03/13

^Certainly the two groups are different, but as concerned fans it is natural that some of us will like to see a benchmark be used to gauge how things are progressing for Nogizaka. I plan to do an analysis of the two groups actually & talk about how is Nogizaka is progressing, but that will be lengthy & hopefully I can get it out by tmr. In the meantime...


Nogizaka's Latest HS Result, Sixth Round Ending is out!!!

Spoiler

Area shaded yellow indicate that it is no longer possible to book for those events.
Translation:
01. 25/25 Shiraishi Mai
02. 25/25 Matsumura Sayuri
03. 20/25 Hashimoto Nanami
04. 19/23 Nishino Nanase
05. 06/18 Akimoto Manatsu
06. 05/21 Fukagawa Mai
07. 04/23 Ikuta Erika
08. 02/23 Ikoma Rina
09. 02/19 Sakurai Reika
10. 01/13 Saito Yuri

Total: 109 Blocks Sold
4th Single 6th round ending total: 111 Blocks Sold

For comparison's sake, 6th round ending last single:


Personal thoughts:
The gap between the total blocks sold same round ending for this single & the last have narrowed to what I consider to be within the margin of errors now. However it is now really clear that Nogizaka have experienced a concentration of blocks sold compares to the previous single.

In regards to individual results, Naachan have closed the gap between her & Nanamin to only ONE block! Due to the earlier event closing however, Naachan's maximum sold out will be capped at 21/23. Despite this, her result are really impressive, & maybe she have really enter the popularity level of the top trio now.

Maimai also increases by a block, putting her ahead of Ikuchan due to her stagnation. In fact, only Naachan increased her blocks sold out significantly, by three blocks to be exact, while almost everyone else whom did increase sold out only one extra blocks. These members are: Sayurin, Nanamin, Maimai, & Yuri. Sakurai sold out two blocks as well. Frankly speaking I am quite surprised at the lack of blocks sold out by members such as Kazumin, Misamisa, Myumyu, Kanarin, & Sayunyan. I guess this made Sakurai & Yuri's result all the more impressive, & Naachan's even more so.

Does this indicate a stagnation in wota sell? Soundscan reported an almost 10,000 increased in DVD version sales, sales that does not include HS ticket. Is Nogizaka's growth this time mostly among more casual fan base? I guess we will have to see. With Bad Boys J & 16nin no Principal deux coming up, expect things to shake up even further in the future!

 

Overall this single was a bit better than seifuku imo.

The tv/live performances were the main point from Kimi no Na wa Kibou. Watching these, it's clear how much they grow since their debut. The Music Fair with Ikuchan on piano was one of the best I saw from them. Really \amazing/

 

this single's PVs are so good and well-made. Shakiism is my most favourite, quite fresh 13 Nichi no Kinyobi is very interesting too.

^^ can I ask why Minami Hoshino is not popular (based on the handshake result), despite being Hachifukujin / top 3?

 

^Good day kashiko!
Regarding Minami's popularity, there's many factors to it. I might miss a few possibilities, but I'll try to answer it to the best of my ability.

Spoiler

Based on my observation, Minami is really good at getting people interested in her initially. The first person I noticed from Nogizaka was Minami, & my observation is that there are many people like me. However, Minami is really really really quiet, one of the most quiet members in Nogizaka I dare say. In fact, I think I might be able to count the number of times she speaks in Nogizakatte, Doko!. I guess being unable to actively express herself make it difficult for her to gain & retain fans.

Another thing is that Minami I think have the most anti within the fandom unfortunately. This is not without reason however. While Minami is undeniably cute, she have been placed in the front row despite a lack of popularity or obvious talent. This generate frustration & animosity from fans that place a lot of value in fairness, & from fans whom felt that Minami do not deserve to be placed above the members they like. Minami's quiet & blunt nature also give these fans a perception that she doesn't work hard or appreciate her good-fortune too.

From my observation I think these are the two primary reasons. Tbh I do think placing her up front is doing her more harm than good all things considered. I would personally like to see her push be more measured, right now it is rather reckless & harmful to her imo.

I hope that answer your question, if there's anything else that you like to know don't hesitate to let me know.

Also, I written a lengthy analysis on Nogizaka's differences from the 48 groups, & on what I think of their progress so far. Bear with the typos & mistakes that possibly fill these words plz!
Introduction

Spoiler

Recently a lot have happened & a lot will be happening for Nogizaka. Nogizaka will be having their first DVD product published in Nogizaka Romance, several Nogizaka members will be playing in late night drama Bad Boys J, Maiyan entered into a contract to be official model for fashion magazine Ray, Maiyan along with Naachan are also invited once again to GirlsAward as model, & Nogizaka 2nd stage, 16nin no Principal deux, have been announced. Two recent developments have ignited widespread conversation in the Nogizaka fandom however, these namely are: the conclusion of Kimi no Na wa Kibou's first week sale, & the beginning of HKT's debut single sale. Considering these development, I think this is the perfect time to do an analysis, of what differentiate Nogizaka from the 48 groups, & how's the progress for the groups thus far. HKT will be frequently mentioned, as they are an excellent comparison all things considered.

Fundamental Differences
The 48 family franchise is characterized by a few significant attributes that distinguish it from other idol groups. Nogizaka, however, departs from a few of these fundamental attributes.

1. Lack of Theatre & Regular Stage Performances

Spoiler

Most obvious & significant is without a doubt the lack of a theatre or regular stage performances. For the 48 groups, the theatre provide a constant mean to exposure for members. Newer members & members with less exposure given by management therefore can still build up their popularity in theatre, one example of such I think is AKB's Umechan.

2. Lack of Gravure

Spoiler

Another striking difference is Nogizaka's lack of gravure. Magazine shoot for the 48 groups consist heavily of gravure, one example is the immense amount of gravure for 48 groups or members that are published around the releasing of a single (e.g. HKT's debut, Yuki's solo, etc.) While some Nogizaka fans do appreciate the lack of gravure for Nogizaka, this certainly means Nogizaka is less likely to capture a certain demographic of fans.

3. Singular Agency Placement

Spoiler

A third fundamental difference I think is the agency placement of members. For Nogizaka, all members are under Sony Music Entertainment (SME). In fact, the name Nogizaka stems from the building which Nogizaka members were recruited, a building belonging to none other than Sony. For the 48 groups, members can sign up with different agencies despite being part of the 48 groups; ultimately this means members can receive works from both their agency & from the 48 groups. This also means 48 members can try to establish a career direction post-graduation by signing with agencies that fit their desired directions (e.g. Wasamin to NagaraPro for enka career.) Of course for many members, especially members from sister groups, they have yet to sign up with an outside agency & are mostly under AKS. Once they are signed however, I do believe they will have acquired an advocate for their career (provided the agency cares). For Nogizaka, SME might not be as well-equipped to look out for members individually, as their primary concern will be for the group.

4. Lack of Regional Base

Spoiler

All 48 groups have a regional base, be it Akihabara, Sakae, Namba, or Hakata. This regional base work hand in hand with theatre, allowing local fans to galvanize toward the groups. I guess in the end, most people do have a soft spot for someone from their hometown, & a regional base will make the most use of this. This also allows for more efficient use of resources, as regional groups can input some of their resources into their area of influence (e.g. NMB's advertisements for the Kansai region.) For Nogizaka these benefits are lost.

5. Lack of Cross-Promotional Structure

Spoiler

Lastly, 48-groups are well-connected through one organizational structure, while Nogizaka is mostly excluded from it. By organizational structure, I mean the access to common TV programs & drama (e.g. AKBingo, Majisuka Gakuen), common HS events (AKB singles), common social media (G+), & common concerts & events. This provide 48-groups extensive cross-promotional opportunities, & a myriad of potentials for fans to get to know members. For Nogizaka, there are lesser opportunities for cross-promotion, as they have so far one appearance in AKB concerts (Request Hour 2012) & limited TV programs appearance (some around Oide Shampoo publication, Mayuzaka & Saba Doll), no common HS events & no common social media structure.

Unique Characteristics resulting from Differences?

Spoiler

While these fundamental differences do mean a lack of certain strengths that for me characterize the success of the 48 franchise, I do think the lack of these attributes also provided some unique characters & upside for Nogizaka. In my opinion, Nogizaka's pool of members seems to be quite different from the other groups in general, as it is characterized by members whom are more education-focused & from a more well-off background. The lack of theatre might have attributed to this, as education-focused applicant might have find Nogizaka more fitting to schedule than the 48-groups. A lack of gravure might also contribute to the difference in memberships, as some members might desire idolship but not want to do gravure, of course the opposite might be true too. The lack of a theatre might also means, ironically, that Nogizaka members can actually be more able to pursue their interests or career direction. For the 48-groups, some members have find it difficult to pursue their goals due to the intense schedule of theatre stages plus multiple handshakes, resulting in them graduating in order to pursue their dreams (e.g. Nakayan Sayaka graduating to audition for seiyuu she otherwise couldn't while in AKB, similar circumstances for multiple SKE members.) Additionally, some Nogi-fans seem to be receptive of Nogizaka's lesser participation in 48-groups activities, & is even supportive of Nogizaka's semi-independence from the 48 familly. I think its fair to say, Nogizaka's differences from the 48 franchise provided difficulties but also unique characters that many fans cherish. Ultimately I think what can be done about fundamental differences are very limited, & fans might not want these characteristics altered anyways.

General Attributes
Other than fundamental difference, there's also some other general attributes that are part of Nogizaka's characteristics, but are not defining features. These general attributes are the aspect that I think Nogizaka can improve upon.

1. Distinctive Choreography

Spoiler

Nogizaka have rather unique choreographs for their songs, one that is easily distinguishable from other 48 groups, or all idol groups for that matter. I think its fair to say that this unique style have been rather polarizing, with some liking it, but others can't bear it. Certainly whether one likes it or not is a matter of personal preference. The problem with Nogizaka's choreography tho is not that some people do not like it, but a significant amount of fans don't like it. I also observed that some people whom have expressed interest in Nogizaka, are also hesitant to follow the group because of its choreography. Overall, I think Nogizaka's choreography have been a drag on the group, & I believe that it should be changed.

2. Resource Disparity

Spoiler

Even is we exclude theatre & the 48 groups' cross-promotional structure, Nogizaka is still far behind when it comes to resources. Nogizaka only have one proper full-time show in its flagship Nogizakatte, Doko?, & otherwise have no more group variety program. In fact, even NogiDoko is not completely aired nation-wide in Japan, maybe due to it being an T.V. Aichi production. Other than NogiDoko, Nogizaka as a group only have the now-defunt Nogizaka Romance with its short 5-minutes episodes, & the sparse Nogizakatte, Koko, only available on their official web. Individually, Misamisa host a music show (this I believe she does even before joining Nogizaka, so shouldn't count as Nogzaka's work if so), & Maiyan is a regular in Umazuki, but otherwise Nogizaka have no other variety resources save for guest appearance. What can be done about this problem might be limited unfortunately.

3. Large Amount of Members

Spoiler

While Nogizaka did not inherent the theatre & regular stage performance of the 48 franchise, it did inherent the attributes of having a lot of members. Even tho Nogizaka do have less members than each of the 48 groups, 33 members is still too much for their own good due simply to the lack of theatre. Unable to regularly perform, the only way to receive exposure is to make senbatsu, which is limited to 16 spots. Furthermore, impending 2nd gen members will add to the resource squeeze. The allocation of these limited resources also present Nogizaka with another attribute.

4. Senbatsu & Hachifukujin Allocation

Spoiler

While the initial promise was to have regular changes in the composition of senbatsu, Nogizaka have unfortunately been quite static in its composition changes for senbatsu. This is especially apparent in the latest two single senbatsu. As of this date, 9 members have as of yet to enter senbatsu. Since Nogizaka lack theate, being able to enter senbatsu is made even more important. Hashifukujin, positions where resources are heavily allocated, have been even more static in its composition, with only eleven members having ever made it. This have caused great frustration to significant number of fans, as the criteria for selection of senbatsu & K8 have never been clear to them. The selection is not based on merit (I define it as talents & popularity), as there are members with popularity significantly higher than regular senbatsu member never entering senbatsu (e.g. Eto Misa), & there's also members with more experience & talent getting by-passed for Hachifukujin by members seemingly less so. While not based on merit, the allocation is also not based on equalizing the popularity gap between members, otherwise there will not be 9 members having yet to participate even once in senbatsu. I believe the frustration resulting from these development have been detrimental to the group's overall development, & also plays a part in the very unequal popularity of individual members within the group. I believe the concentration of HS blocks sold-out we have seen recently are a good indicator of this.

Concluding Analysis

Spoiler

So considering the above, I guess its not exactly a surprise that HKT is now in a position to sold out more than Nogizaka. The two groups were formed around the same time, with Nogizaka's first gen announced roughly three months earlier than HKT's, therefore have roughly equal developmental length. HKT have a regional base, a theatre for regular performances, a myriad of TV programs (KoreKara, AruAru Terebi, HKT Variety, Odekake, & most importanly, Hyakatten), & cross-promotional structure that allow it members to make regular appearances in 48 common TV programs (e.g. AKBingo) & concerts.

Nonetheless, I do think there exist room for Nogizaka to do better. I think this is mainly possible by making changes to the general attributes I mentioned above. Changing choreography can be rather straight-forward, & not much options might be available regarding resource disparity. I do think however it is within SME's ability to institute major changes to address point 3 & 4, with keeping with the fundamental characters of Nogizaka.

Room for Improvement?

Spoiler

One of Nogizaka's defining characteristic is a lack of theatre & regular stage performances. Previously I mentioned the lack of such might provide flexibility for members to pursue career & educational pursuits. However it is also a fact that there exist way too less opportunities for Nogizaka member, particularly for non-senbatsu members. A possible way to remedy this is to organize 16nin no Principal stages in a higher frequency. To get around educational schedules, such stages can be held three times per year, during the Spring, Summer, & Winter breaks in Japan. With the impending 2nd gen, not all members will need to be presented at these stage all the time, much like the Kami-members in AKB. Like the latest 16nin no Principal deux, the performances need not be concentrated in one city, & should be spread around if possible. I believing adopting this will go a long way in addressing Nogizaka's deficiencies.

Another points to address is the allocation of senbatsu & hachifukujin spots. Preferably, I would rather that there be a mechanism designed to select members for these positions, something like a singing/dancing competition or a vote (which can be done during stage perf as it was done in 16nin no Principal.) I think this is quite unlikely to be adopted however, as I do think management will want to continue to hold power over the selection process. Something I want to see that I think is slightly more realistic is having one single per year be decided on a vote, & maybe during the above-mentioned Summer stage. For the other singles, I hope they can at least put merit & equity in mind; either quickly allow all members to make senbatsu at least once, or based thing on merit & place members base on their popularity. While there may be technical difficulties in adopting the first suggestion, for the second suggestion I think the question of whether to adopt it or not will be a matter of will. SME could have addressed this problem now or long before, but chooses not to.

Conclusion

Spoiler

So based on the above analysis, we can see there exist several fundamental difference that distinguish Nogizaka from the 48 groups. These differences include the lack of theatre & regular stage performances, different style of magazine shoots, different agency structure, lack of regional base, & the lack of cross-promotional structure. Considering these, I think its fair to say Nogizaka have done well thus far.

This is not to say there's no room for improvement however. Some characteristics of Nogizaka, such as their choreography style, lack of performances, & their allocation of senbatu & hachifukujin positions, can be changed for the better. I personally would like to see more stage performances like 16nin no Principal, & would really appreciate a greater emphasis on merit or equity from management. With that in mind, I see a lot of potential for Nogizaka, & hope they can continue to remain a distinct group as they are now, but with their deficiencies overcame.

 

^ Thanks a lot for your detailed explanation

Well I can guess a bit about Hoshino's personality based on everything but didn't know things are that bad. Hope she can improve in the fields that she are lacking now , otherwise her chance no junban will pass and it'll be a waste.

 

Nogizaka updated their commercial to make use of their new pv!
Good to know at least it will be of use somewhere.
[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iim7Rsk68tI[/yt]


Also, Nogizaka was on Music Fair! They performed So Young with Yamashita Kumiko!
[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm3tVeGqyY0[/yt]

Talking segment, with Takamina also there too!
[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUnIaeVlZHU[/yt]

 

The above video of Nogizaka's perf of So Young with Yamashita Kumiko was sort of laggy, so I uploaded another version. Hopefully it is better.
[dm]xyhe5y_nogizaka46-music-fair-performance-so-young-13-03-23_music[/dm]



Also, Nogizaka was on Haru no PON! Mariko was there too! [party]
[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuwVLuJ2ekw[/yt]

 

Nogizaka's Latest HS Result, Seventh Round Ending is out!!!

Spoiler

Area shaded yellow indicate that it is no longer possible to book for those events.

English Translation Ranking!
From left to right are: Rank, change in rank, blocks sold out, changes in blocks sold out, members' name.
01. (=) 25/25 (+0) Shiraishi Mai
02. (=) 25/25 (+0) Matsumura Sayuri
03. (=) 23/25 (+3) Hashimoto Nanami
04. (=) 20/23 (+1) Nishino Nanase
05. (↑) 08/23 (+4) Ikuta Erika
06. (↓) 08/18 (+2) Akimoto Manatsu
07. (↓) 07/21 (+2) Fukagawa Mai
08. (=) 03/23 (+1) Ikoma Rina
09. (=) 03/21 (+1) Sakurai Reika
10. (↑) 01/23 (+1) Takayama Kazumin
11. (↑) 01/21 (+1) Wakasuki Yumi
12. (↑) 01/18 (+1) Nakada Kana
13. (↓) 01/13 (+0) Saito Yuri
14. (↑) 01/13 (+1) Saito Asuka
14. (↑) 01/13 (+1) Ito Marika
16. (↑) 01/08 (+1) Nakamoto Himeka
17. (↑) 01/05 (+1) Kawamura Mahiro
17. (↑) 01/05 (+1) Ando Mikumo

Total: 131 Blocks Sold
4th Single 7th round ending total: 126 Blocks Sold

For comparison's sake, 7th round ending last single:


Personal thoughts:
In just a matter of the a round, this single's total HS blocks sold out surpassed the previous single's as of the same round ending! Additionally, eight more members have now sold out at least a block!

In regards to individual results, Naachan is still at the heel of Nanamin's result, but the gap have widen to three due to Nanamin's increase in sold out by three blocks. Other notable increases in blocks sold out (greater than one) are Ikuchan's, by four, & Maimai + Manatsu's, by two. Ikuchan's greater increase propel her to 5th places too. Also, this is the first time I see Himetan & Rottii sold out a block to, so props to Himetan & Rottii!

All in all, the concentration of blocks sold out is still there, but have even out significantly with this round. Quite a few unders are selling out blocks, including Asuka, Bebitan, Himetan, Rottii, & Anchan selling out this round. Hopefully this is an encouraging trend for future rounds.

 

^ well, a good result in my opinion, with more unders sold out a block, I think the fans started to notice them other than the top big 4 members

 

Saw this at the Takamina's single thread:

What did they do yesterday to boost sales like that? [shock]

 

Nothing, from what i'm aware they just sold more copies that day.

 

Then that's just great.

 

I have just made the Ikuta's Piano version of the Kimi no Na wa Kibou, by listening again and again the original recording. Hope you all like this. [yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPHqKLTvyVk[/yt]

 

It's pretty good Thank you!
What software do you use for that?

 

[/quote]What software do you use for that?[/quote]

Sibelius + Cubase + Edirol Orchestra

 

Sibelius + Cubase + Edirol Orchestra

 

I have just made another the Ikuta's Piano version of the Kimi no Na wa Kibou, now comes with PIANO SCORE!!!

[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLTByhEx27c[/yt]

 

^ That's awesome!!!
I suck at playing the piano but I definitely want to try this out when I have the time
Thank you! [clap]

 

woo awesome :3 wish i could do that T-T
wonder if you could make ushitakunai or seifuku manneqin that would b great! :'D

 

It would be much harder since it is has no pure piano version.