The Research Student Thread

I'm really excited for the next generation! I haven't had an oshi in AKB48 for a couple years now, so it would be nice to discover one in this new batch of members. Personally, I'm hoping this gen will consist of about 16 members or so. Enough for them to start doing Kenkyuusei stages again.

 

Actually, nowadays AKB don't perform at 16 in the theater anymore, most stages are with only 8 members (because of restrictions etc.), so the new generation could have a kenkyuusei stage even if they're just 8 members. I feel like 16 would be way too much and discouraging for people to learn about them... Btw I also don't have a real oshi for 2 years so I hope that someone in this generation can become my oshi, I usually prefer when I have an oshi that I liked and followed since the beginning ^^ Let's hope we can find new favorites in 17th gen!

I agree about maximum 10 members in this generation, I think it's better for the group and for the girls themselves. About the amount of members in AKB, actually they've had a lot of graduations in recent months, and if you go back to 2-4 years ago, they had more than 100 members. Of course I don't think that they should go back to that, and I this it's better if they have around 60 members (currently they have 73), but at the same time, I really think AKB needs new and fresh members. Other 48 groups regularly add new generations and it really helps to bring more interest in the group for new fans and to revive the interest in the group for fans of members who have graduated recently etc.

Where did she say this?

Btw if you guys want to read more discussions about 17th gen, there's actually a thread that was made and it has 4 pages of discussion. Of course new discussions can be done here too!

http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?threads/akb48-17th-generation.23735/

 

I remember that we already had a discussion about this topic in either the 17th Gen or AKB threat, but let's go for it again
Btw, to be precise about the 100 members, checking my list the last time was in October/November 2020

AKB during their peak, let's say between Jan 2010 to Jan 2013, had between 65 (lowest) to 97 (highest) members. But that was a different time. Idol groups became/were more popular, and that was due to AKB. But this changed. They aren't the big thing anymore, and management doesn't do enough to promote this amount of members. I mean for example, AKB has two major YT channels with AKB48 & OUC48, but how much content do they offer to give different member groups/solo members the chance to advertise themselves outside the now new tv shows? None Not enough. (AKB48 last video uploaded 1 month ago / OUC48 last video 5 days ago. Both channels are mostly uploading advertisements for AKBs streaming service or products. The last "real" content was 2 weeks ago; a two and a half hour long showroom live with Gyoten, Hattori and Hashimoto.)
How many of these 73 members get the chance to show themselves off regularly? And now put 1X members on top.... It didn't work a year ago, it certainly won't now.
I prepared the new Team photo wall pictures a few days ago, and even though I follow AKB for years now, I am still regularly surprised ,,Oh, she's a member of AKB?" lul

IMO, looking at the current times idol goups are good to go with a member count between 30 to max 50 members. I mean, to have 48 members was AKBs plan in the first place, so why not going with it now? 48 promoted members + around 10 Kenkyuusei, sounds good to me. Still too many a lot, but hopefully more screen time for certain members and less faces/names to remember for new fans

Just for comparison:
SKE48: 55 Members + 7 Kenkyuusei
NMB48: 27 Members + 22 Kenkyuusei (nearly as many kenkyuusei as promoted members )
HKT48: 40 Members + 0 Kenkyuusei (coming)
NGT48: 24 Members + 0 Kenkyuusei (coming)
STU48: 33 Members + 4 Kenkyuusei

Spoiler: Sakamichi

Nogizaka46: 44 Members
Sakurazaka46: 23 Members
Hinatazaka46: 22 Members

 

@FlowingColors

Yes I'm pretty sure we've had this discussion like 2-3 times already in recent months but let's have it again!

Actually you're right that around 50 members is better for AKB. I said 60 earlier but now that I think about it, SKE has 60 members and I feel that it's a bit too much... and it's not like before when AKB had a lot more releases, shows etc. compared to sister groups. I don't feel that SKE has less than AKB now in terms of releases & promo... so if 60 feels a bit much with SKE then it would probably be the same in AKB. it's true that many fans don't know majority of AKB members especially the more recent gens. I think it's sad. This year, AKB had already around 10 graduations and among them, there was some of the less known girls and I can say that I barely saw anyone talking about their graduations. I really don't think AKB right now can handle having and promoting (properly) that many members.

I didn't expect that the last time AKB had 100 members was at the end of 2020, this wasn't that long ago... it means they lost around 30 members in 1,5 year? Right now they have 73 members and if the new gen is around 10 members (hopefully) they'll be at 83, then if they don't do any new auditions for at least 1-2 years, they'll most likely lose around 30 members again (because of getting older, or finishing high school, or many other reasons). so it should be fine for them to add a new gen (not big) now and if necessary have other auditions in 2 years from now when they'll have less members, and keep around 50 members.

Nowadays AKB doesn't even do theater stages with 16 members anymore but 8, so they would do fine with 50 members or so, lol. it's better for the group and for the girls to stand out.

For the YouTube channels, I feel like it was a mistake when they did the project of giving individual channels to members. Unless a member is popular, it doesn't work... I think what they should have done are either team channels or a channel for the whole group where they would upload all kind of videos, either by group or unit or pair or individual but all in one channel. it's kind of like what HKT did now here, this is what I wanted AKB to do, and I think this would have been a much better success than their idea of solo channels for members.

Spoiler

I edited the Nogi page btw!

 

I guess most fans/people in generell know the older gens more because they -1st have joined AKB either while or shortly after AKB was at it's peak (15th Gen -Mukaichi, Taniguchi, Fukuoka, Komiyama to name the most prominent active members- joined May 2013) and -2nd due to 1st have been promoted better back than. Due to more group popularity and various programs they simply got more eyes set on them.
People not really talking about graduations will happen a lot more, since there are -and I am truly sorry for the girls- still quite some members who have no relevance for the group. And I even think AKB would do better without them, since the company would save money and could provide more spotlight for the current members who either are or showing potential to be relevant for the group (+ for the upcoming kenkyuusei)

I actually think the new gen will trigger some graduations and with that (maybe?) a new cycle of audition-graduations, since as you said there are various reasons for some to leave the group. As I wrote above 15th Gen joined May 2013, that was nearly 9(!) years ago. They all are between 21-24y/o now. First Gen Eitos just celebrated their 8th Ann., most of them as well are in the early to mid 20s. (Oguri the youngest with 20y, Okabe the oldest with 25y, both still have their bdays coming)
So considering this number of members, their ages and how long they've been a part of the group -plus maybe speculating about how much screen time they'll get with the new gen joining, since most haven't received much to none bc of covid- maybe a lot of them will take the leave WHICH will possibly lead to the next audition
I hope mngmt goes with - QUALITY > quantity - Please, I would rather see 4 girls but with great, interesting personalities/talents and have a second audition this years with e.g. 6 girls, then 16 (sorry) NGs

Well, we all know without the theater no 48G would need even 30 members. Take a look at Sakura/Hinatazaka or Sasshis groups. They all do better with less than 25 members..

Nogizaka does the (nearly) same with their streaming channel (+ they're also uploading the latest Kojichuu episode there). I agree with you that it does work best for the big/ger names, at least the way AKB handles it. And I like your idea with team or group channels. In the beginning they used the OUC48 channel to do sub-unit live streams, they could go with this again, except that the members can meet now and do actual stuff together (e.g. visiting locations, doing challenges, etc.. | Ofc in compliance with the current Corona regulations!) Doing little shows with a group of 15-20 members would also be interesting, may it be for a funny talk round or a battle in whatever. I think there are many possibilities.
I think individuell channels could work better for smaller names if they can show exclusive backstage insights from group productions like a variety or mv shooting, something AKB related that's exclusive for their channel and could possibly interest a vast number of fans/people. Big/ger names would than simply show their "usual" stuff.

 

Sorry, I don't know exactly, I just saw it on twitter! You might want to ask the person who shared it:

https://twitter.com/aneroph/status/1512459423310135298

 

Thanks! The person seems sure about it but I might still ask them just to have a reference and see if Miion said anything else about them. ^^

I agree, it's not against anyone, it's just better for the members if they debut with less girls. 4 is a bit too little though idk if they could even have theater stages, 8-10 is good. I'm kinda curious about how many girls auditioned but I don't think they'll give the number. The thing is that literally every female idol groups did auditions in the past months, so there was a lot of competition. Maybe AKB should have a little gen and then do another audition in 2 years where they won't have this much competition and might find better candidates?

I managed to find favorite members in NMB's 8th gen (Yayoi, Sakatan, Mako and more), STU's new gen (Rio) and SKE's new gen (Yune), so I would be really sad if I can't actually find a favorite in AKB's 17th gen ;_; They're still the group that I follow the most and the one I consider as my main favorite group so hopefully I can have a real new oshi >.<

Btw I think they'll most likely be revealed around June. They are in training period right now.

 

It takes a really long time for me to learn any names of new members. I first became a fan of AKB48 back in 2015, so the only additions I witnessed were 16th Gen and 3rd Draft. For like... I'd say 2 years after 16th Gen was introduced, the only member I knew was Muto Orin, due to the fact she was Tomu's sister. And then with 3rd Draft, the only member I knew about for a long time was Yahagi Moeka.

I found my current oshimen in a 3rd Draft member (before that it was Tano Yuka from 12th Gen and before that Akimoto Sayaka from 3rd Gen). But it wasn't until 2021 that I found her, and it's only because of "Nogizaka ni Kosaremashita."

Tbh I'm a bit more hopeful that I can learn about the 17th Gen members because I think I know the names of all members currently. Back in 2016/18, I only knew the big names. Also, because AKB48 has a really nice show now again at the moment and I hope the new members will be introduced on Sayonara Mouri-san. AKBINGO! was the reason I started to like both Akimoto Sayaka and Tano Yuka.

(also, can anyone tell that I have a type when it comes to oshis? )

Variety shows, imo, are a really big help in letting people get to know members, their names and to some degree their mannerisms. The theatre isn't accessible to all of Japan, you have to travel to Tokyo and buy a ticket... whereas it's easy to watch a TV show on TV or search it up online. And of course the members have showroom and social media, but you need to learn about them first before you decide to follow them or watch their live streams.

I also agree with both of you that I hope the gen will be ≤10 members. It's easier to learn that many names, and also the girls will have more opportunity to stand out.

But I don't think we can compare the number of AKB48 or 48 Groups in general with the size of Sakamichi groups, because AKB48 does make use of its teams and I don't think Sakamichi separates their members much, even by generation. I think 100+ members is too much, but I think 30ish, as an average between the three Sakamichi groups, would be waaay too small for AKB.

 

I agree that 30 members would be too little for a 48 group, having less members only works with Sakurazaka or Hinatazaka right now and that's because both are still "new" (if we count Sakurazaka's debut as the rebranding and Hinatazaka's debut as their separation from Keyakizaka). They both feel new and fresh and the members are still the "original" ones so they are popular and sell well at HS. Btw they actually have around 20 members so it's even less than 30. For Nogi, it seems that they try to stay around 40. For AKB it would be better around 50.

Of course I think if a group has around 30 members, it's probably the best way for fans to learn and care about the members rather than just their oshimen and for everyone to get good promo. But yeah... the only way for 48G or Nogi to keep high sales with 30 members is if they keep the 30 most popular and strongest HS sellers in the group... but it's not management who decide who gets to stay or graduate, so until then the groups will need around 40-50 members to have the popular and good HS sellers, and the less known girls (in 48G's case they also need it for the theater). if they want to have a bigger % of popular girls then they simply need to add little generations because it's higher chances of having more members who get popular in the gen.

Btw @bonjourmarlene it's the same for me with 16th and D3, for years I didn't know 16th gen, but I actually did take a look at them at their debut but none of them got my attention (I hope the same thing won't happen with 17th gen), actually later I started liking Maeda Ayaka but she graduated. Now I know 16th gen better and they're nice. and with D3, I only knew Moeka from before the draft and she became my oshi, but I never actually got to know the other D3 for years until now. These big gens really discourage me lol.

 

@Mana Of course 4 was just an example, but then again the 6th Gen had only 4 members, and AKB did a second audition in 2008 adding another 11 members. Tho I also think 4 is not enough, if they would do another audition this year I think it would be ok.

@bonjourmarlene Isn't Akimoto a 2nd Gen? And you know all their names? I think I could manage half, unlike with Nogi where I could recall 90% of the current members by now. (That was COMPLETELY different a year ago )
That aside, imo variety shows are THE most important thing to present the girls. Showroom and SNS are nice if you want to know more, but it starts with presenting the idol as someone interesting the viewer/fan should keep at least one eye on.
That's why fans were complaining about AKBs "we are not doing anything - and if, we only do it half a$$ed" they did 2020/21 in the first place, right?
I hope the new show will do the members talents justice. They are good entertainers, but they need the right play ground.

30 is obviously not enough for any 48 group that wants to keep their theater running, that's why I said without it they wouldn't be in need of even 30 members. Tho it would mean AKB48 would need real quality members!
And there I have a problem: The theater does offer a solid place to work for those members who until now haven't had their breakthrough or (sadly) never really caught any bigger fan interest, but on the other side I feel like AKB uses it like an excuse to add more members, knowing that they don't need to be too picky when deciding who to accept for a Gen and promote everyone of them to a degree they deserve and try making them popular to lots of fans so they'll keep the generell group-popularity high, because they can always put them in the "theater regular" section.
I know it helped the group become as successful as it was, but now that large number is surely preventing members to shine to their brightest.

48 (promoted members) is a good number. I'm still a fan of only 3 teams with 16 members each, since it's the average AKB senbatsu, but I like the idea of 12 per team more and more. Less members = more exposure.

 

2008 was really long ago Considering it took years for AKB to have a new audition, and that between the 17th gen audition announcement and their reveal, there are more than 6 months, it's very unlikely that they could even do 2 auditions in one same year or one after the other without taking at least a 1 year break. it probably takes time, efforts and money to make these auditions. if they did it faster, then I agree that regularly adding 4-5 members is better than 20 at once. But I don't think 18th gen will be anytime soon, not before 2024.

The new AKB show Sayonara Mouri-san seems like a really good place to introduce the new girls, and I really hope management will think of giving an episode to 17th gen when they'll debut. Something like going through their profile and asking them to show a special talent. and it would be nice if they're given pretty outfits/hairstyles too. I know usually KKS will be with white shirt and no styling, they can still do this in theater or something lol but I wish to see them shine at their debut so hopefully they get the chance to wear something cute. and yes it's important that it happens at their debut because the first impression is when majority of AKB fans will be interested in becoming fans, if it's done years after debut, it's too late.

 

Well, no audition for 2/2,5 years would mean -by your calculation from above- around 30-40 graduations in the meantime; if they add 10 members now it means the group would be at 53 to 43 members in mid 2024. Aren't these the numbers we want? | Honestly I don't even doubt that we will witness at least 30-40 graduations within the next 3 years, considering various factors.

That's a really nice idea, and how about they do small challenges to promote the new single? ... Ah sorry, wrong group. This is AKB not Nogizaka.. (jkjk )
But for real, what you said would be the appropriate way to introduce them, but I fear this management and good member introduction are two things that don't know each other well

 

Ugh, that ALWAYS happens to me I know that Akimoto is original Team K, and in my head, Team A and Team B are 1st and 2nd gen respectively, simply because A=1, B=2, C=3 etc. I know obviously it's not like that and Team A was 1st Gen, Team K 2nd Gen and Team B 3rd Gen. I still instinctively do it wrong. I also called Watanabe Mayu "the ace of the 2nd generation" and had loads of people troll me that I'm erasing Oshima Yuko's legacy lmao.

Also, I know all the names, but I can't always put name + face together. I know the names because I keep up-to-date with AKB48's online talk (handshake) sales and I check every member, so if I see the Kanji, I know who it is even though I don't necessarily know the Kanji itself? But I think I recognise pretty much all members except the most recent additions to Team 8 (even though they're not that recent anymore now).

I liked how Team 8 originally would audition for 1 girl whenever a member graduated, so that the team would always have 47 representatives. I'd find it really cool if AKB48 actually had 48 members and would always add one person every time someone graduates.

 

This is a pretty good idea actually! and I think it would be good if they have a specific period in the year where the members can announce grad and leave, and then have new auditions after. I'm not sure about this because I don't follow them too closely but I think in Morning Musume, they almost always have their grads either at the middle of the year or the end of the year, of course they have much less members too, but I think it's planned that they have to leave either in the middle or the end of the year. AKB could do something like this where they allow graduations either at the beginning of the year (like what happened now), or after summer. though I hope they can kinda reduce the time between announcement and graduation... sometimes it's like 4-5 months, it's too long. and then they can have new auditions each time after the wave of graduations, but not auditions that take 6+ months like here lol.

That would be a good idea since it would keep the group with a fixed number of 48 members that is not too much and not too little (and would finally make all these misinformed articles about AKB being 48 members correct, lol), at the same time the group would regularly have new members to stay fresh, and it would be at most like 2-5 members being added at once.

 

17th gen available for handshake events from May 28th
https://akb.kingrecords.co.jp/info/003786.html

 

omg we're getting a name reveal?!

 

I ordered Moto Kare desu, but I'm sure that I can't go there. I live too far from them.

 

SHOWROOM links:

 

i think 17th gen is quite good, 11 is not too many but still enough and they're all quite talented with good personalities