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Interesting

I vote for sasshi because I know that her fans, japan and overseas, already started an integrated project to return her to 2013 glory

 

Sasshi! I think her wotas underestimated Mayuyu's last year

 

Giving how pissed they are right now.

Yukirin and it wouldn't even be close.

 

Agreed, even though I'm not a fully pledged Yukirin oshi anymore (That goes to Airin now ), I'm still quite pissed... And my Yukirin oshied friend are fuming so they're saving up XD

So I think Yukirin

 

Thanks for starting the thread! I think it will be very interesting. Anyway, I think we should base our discussion on actual popularity and not how much money the wotas have to vote. For example, Sayanee's photobook just came out and her wotas would obviously spend money buying it. This would obviously affect the amount of money they have to buy votes for her. For the sake of this discussion we should probably disregard this and just take it as if cash resources are unlimited lol. I'm not too sure.

Here is what I think for the third week of February (15th to 21st February)
1. Yamamoto Sayaka - Like I said, her photobook just came out and it is making waves. She's definitely at the peak of her popularity right now. She's also trying lots of new things in AKB like raping (Green Flesh), and scream-singing (Punkish). That's bound to get more people interested in her. Nana's graduation is also benefiting her loads as she's been getting more airtime on shows due to their "best frriends relationship", she's also getting a new MVs. She has a lot lined up for her right now and she's definitely a hot topic now so I'm very confident about her pushing through and clinching the top spot.
2. Kashiwagi Yuki - Man her fans must be pissed at hell with how Green Flesh is turning out. I can see them boycotting it and going all out for the elections instead. Especially since she has declared her intention. Problem with Yukirin is I'm not sure if her fan base can still grow any further at this point of time.
3/4. Watanabe Mayu/Sashihara Rino - I'm sure the both of them will do well but none of them have been doing anything in particular this week. I'll put Mayu over Sasshi as she just got appointed as the main cast of some prime time TV show. Regardless of how it does, it's bound to get her name out there with the mainstream.
5. Shimazaki Haruka - Is it me or has Paruru reached new heights of cuteness this year? Her latest photoshoot with Cutie is incredible and she's bound to get more fans from that. She's also incredibly funny on 755. Unfortunately, her fans are the least likely to vote aggressively.
6. Matsui Jurina - Nothing against her, I just think her growth is slower compared to the 5 above her. Her strange comment on 755 would have probably made her lose some fans. However, Jurina doesn't need to worry. She's still very young and recent developments are actually helping her develop her character. She might grow into a reliable senior type, and that would make her a lot more likeable.
7. Takahashi Minami - If she takes part this is about as high as she will go. She hasn't been doing anything significant recently.

8 to 21 below

Spoiler

8. Matsui Rena - Her drop is for the same reasons as Jurina.
9. Kojima Haruna - No real reason
10. Suda Akari - No real reason either
11. Miyazawa Sae - Girl has been so controversial lately. It's like she can'd do anything in SKE without getting complains. The great thing about the sousenkyo is that you can't down vote anyone so lucky for her, her already intense fanbase is just going to root for her even harder. Plus she's a lot more visible in Japan this year, I think her votes will definitely grow.
12. Miyawaki Sakura - She's been getting a major push no doubt but frankly speaking, I'm not sure how much of it is working. I don't think there's anyone who liked her more after watching MG4. Response to her solo and Kibouteki was also lukewarm. It's like she's there but she wasn't remarkable or anything. HKT hako oshis are going to invest less in her as well now that Haruppi is doing pretty well and so many other HKT girls ranked last year.
13. Yokoyama Yui - On top of her future Sousenkyo schtick, her photobook was also really pretty though, so I think she might do better than this. However, I'm just not sure if Sakura would drop below her.
14. Kawaei Rina - Her comeback has been really smooth sailing. And she's becoming very well received. Unfortunately she had a horrible song in the AKB album. There's also NyaaKB to look forward to.
15. Watanabe Miyuki - There's is no way she's not making it back into senbatsu after what happened last year. Plus her Solo definitely gained her new fans since that whole showa era throwback to Matsuda Seiko concept was really endearing.
16. Kizaki Yuria - I really disliked her previously but her photobook made me kinda interested in her cause it was very well done. By that reason alone I'm sure her fan base must have grown.

17. Shibata Aya/Matusmura Kaori/Kitahra Rie - No real reason.They're just around the same in popularity.

I'm not sure about Ikoma since she really isn't that popular by herslf. Even though she received so much screentime in Green Flesh, none of it has really made an impact. She's gonna fade into obscurity. Annin's theatre comeback must have reinvigorated her fans. Her votes will increase but I don't think she's gonna get enough to cross Kaotan or Rie.

On a side note, I think Yuiri and Saki are definitely going to rank this year. They have grown up so much and their performance in the recent LODs really show how they've grown into stars.

 

Yukirin - definitely. People are pissed about Green Flash... I think they will throw all the support they can behind her.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

YUKIRIN

after green flash MV screentime incident, her wotas will revenge in ssk

 

I voted Sayanee because of most of the reasons @mysoshipinups pointed out, and I think that a good part of the votes that would have been cast for Nana will go to her.

On the other hand Yukirin could also win next sunday since revenge and hate often takes your further in life than love and support.

 

Sasshi. I think people are overblowing how upset Yukirin fans are about the PV.

 

I think that if the election was next Sunday Yukirin could win, but when the actual election comes everybody will have calmed down and if she wins it won't be because of Green Flash. If I had to bet money one someone for the actual election it would be Sasshi.

 

I said Sasshi last year and I was totally wrong about Mayu not being able to get the necessary votes. It seems Sasshi's numbers are for real though, and to even be as high as they were last year, I would think there's going to be a massive stretch of voting from her wota to ensure she wins it this year.

That or she fools me again like last year, lol. Mayu really makes it valid to believe anyone can take first if she could do it, I'm just not sure if a sister group member like Sayanee has reached "AKB Level" popularity or not.

If we were going by momentum alone, which is what the Sunday question seems to be, than I would say perhaps Sakura for all the major promotions and activity she's been getting lately. I think she's very well liked by wota, and there's a certain aura about her.

 

I would be really pissed if my oshi gets to center a song and someone else gets any screentime at all like... wow I would be so pissed. I wouldn't feel grateful for a single second that my oshi is the center of that song. No I would throw a tantrum on some forum and carry on like that until sousenkyo.

 

It will be between Sasshi vs Yukirin vs Sayanee
People seems underestimating Sayanee's chance of winning.

 

Yukirin... all the way $£$£$

Yukirin vs Sasshi vs Sayanee vs Mayuyu?

I would have been expecting a Sasshi vs Mayuyu showdown for 1st at SSK this year i.e, reasons of revenge/ make history.
However, I think Yukirin and Sayanee are the dark horse this year...

 

Right now I'd say Yukirin, but I guess that depends on the japanese fans being as pissed as the fans here about Green Flash.

The scariest part about Sayanee's popularity is that I don't think she's even peaked yet popularity-wise. I don't know if she's broken into mainstream media like Paruru has, but when that happens... oh, lord.

I guess it could be something like:

1. Yukirin
2. Sasshi
3. Mayuyu
4. Sayanee
5. Jurina
6. Paruru
7. Sakura

 

I am really afraid of her popularity! Not because I don't like her, but because people seem very enthusiastic about her. That said, I can't really see her being the face of AKB... I just don't think she'd work as well as a center for AKB as she does for NMB. It would definitely be a big departure from the previous style of girls.

 

I think it could work if they gave her the proper song to center. Just like Yuko killed it in UZA and MaeShika.

 

Guys, please remember that this thread is not about who will win the elections eventually but who will win the elections right now. So please keep this in mind when posting. Personally, Sasshi has done nothing much that is note worthy of late so if the elections is done today, I doubt she'll do so well.

 

I'd guess Yukirin if they had the elections right now, her fans are already going for the big #1 push this year and she's on the radar because of Green Flash (and also because of not having screen time in Green Flash).