Won a reservation, seeing the show!

Continuing my crappy cancel mach number losing streak, I failed to get into last night's Team 4 stage. I had Cancel Machi #97, and it went up to #69.

• For the last three months I have gotten nothing but really high cancel machi numbers. In fact, this was the first time in three months I got one under #100
• I really wanted to see this stage since they were performing Te wo Tsunaginagara, which I don't think I have seen live before. The last time I saw Team 4 they did the Himawari-Gumi 2nd Stage.
• Interestingly, every time I have shown up and not won, I have gotten into the post-show High Wave, where you get to enter the theater after the show and greet the members. The way I see it, that isn't a bad deal, since I save on the price of a ticket, and get to say hello to the members anyway.

In all fairness, I wasn't applying nearly as frequently in the last the last three months since I was really busy, which does contribute to application success. I will have more time at least over the next three weeks, so hopefully my luck will change.

 

Once again, a crappy cancel machi number (#112) for the Sunday matinee Pajama Drive stage. In fact I debated skipping it entirely and instead go see another indie idol group in Shinjuku. But I ultimately decided to give AKB a shot and...

Won, via Ippan cancel machi #112. The cancel machi went up to....#112. I was the last person to get in.

So even with a poor cancel machi number, one has a shot. However, it has been quite a while since I had a chance at the seat lottery. I'd like to win a show outright once in a while.

 

So, I have received two cancel machis via ippan this month, and didn't get in either time. June 3rd I had cancel machi #96 for Team 4 (it went up to #59) and yesterday (June 12th) I had cancel machi #112 for the Anna Makino stage (it went up to #72) For the Team 4 show I did not draw a winning chopstick, so I didn't get the opportunity to do the post show high-touch. However for the Anna Makino stage I did win the post-show high-touch. Ultimately my rate of getting into the post-show high-touch after losing out on cancel machi is really good, which is why I show up regardless of how poor I feel my chances are of ultimately getting in for the whole show. Speaking of chances, I compiled a few statistics of my win/cancel machi percentages since April of 2017, when I started winning again after 3 1/2 years of not winning anything...

So since April 2017...

• I have won or received cancel machi 43 times
• 4 of those were outright wins, 39 were cancel machi.
• I have ultimately won the show 21 times (4 wins, 17 cancel machi)
• My previous 31 wins were all prior to 2014

The four shows I won outright...

2017/04/28 SKE48 Team KII
2017/06/02 AKB48 Kenkyuusei (Let's go Kenkyuusei!)
2017/08/17 AKB48 Kenkyuusei (Let's Go Kenkyuusei!) <my listed oshimen's seitensei stage>
2018/08/20 SKE48 Team E

Note: I opt out of the cancel machi option for SKE48, so it is always "win or nothing."
Note 2: I went a year between outright wins from 8/2017 - 8/2018, and it has been 10 months since my last outright win. It has been 22 months since my last outright win at the AKB48 theater.
Note 3: My longest stretch between won/cancel machi elections: 36 days (happened twice) Shortest stretch: 3 days

Of my 17 cancel machi wins...

14 were from the kenkyuusei stages. The other three were for Team 4, Team 8, and the Anna Makino stage.

2017/07/01 Team 8 (cancel machi #75)
2017/11/06 Team 4 (cancel machi #55)
2019/02/11 Anna Makino (cancel machi #84)

Kenkyuusei Stages

2017/07/30 Let's Go Kenkyuusei! (cancel machi #137) Note: my highest cancel machi number ever, and I got in! (I recently received cancel machi #144, which I lost)
2017/09/15 Let's Go Kenkyuusei! (cancel machi #69)
2017/11/19 Let's Go Kenkyuusei! (cancel machi #103)
2018/01/05 Let's Go Kenkyuusei! (cancel machi #31)
2018/05/23 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #35)
2018/06/24 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #39)
2018/07/13 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #6)
2018/07/30 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #23)
2018/08/07 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #90)
2018/10/05 Idol Shugyou Chuu! (cancel machi #64)
2018/11/26 Pajama Drive (cancel machi #67)
2019/02/01 Pajama Drive (cancel machi #84)
2019/05/19 Pajama Drive (cancel machi #112)
2019/07/18 Pajama Drive (cencel machi #53)

Of my 38 cancel machi elections, 18 (46%) have been #100 or higher, which is extremely difficult to win with.
My highest cancel machi I got in with is #137, my lowest to lose with, #64)

My cancel machi win rates...

Cancal Machi 50 and below: 5/5 100%
Cancel Machi #51-75: 7/10 70%
Cancel Machi #76-100: 2/7 28%
Cancel Machi #100+ 3/17 17%

By year:
2017: Wins: 3 / Cancel Machi Wins: 5 / Cancel Machi Losses: 3 / Total: 11 / Win Pct. 72%
2018: Wins: 1 / Cancel Machi Wins: 8 / Cancel Machi Losses: 10 / Total: 19 / Win Pct. 47%
2019: Wins: 0 / Cancel Machi Wins: 4 / Cancel Machi Losses: 9 / Total: 13 / Win Pct. 30%

BTW, the reason I did this research was that I noticed that my cancel machi elections over the last year seemed to be exclusively high numbers, with very little chance to win. Sure enough, over the last 11 months over half of my cancel machi elections were #112 or above. 75% were #84 or above., and one was below #64. My average cancel machi number in this 11-month period is ~101. From April 2017 to July 2018 my average cancel machi number was 76.82. Much lower.

But at least I am getting cancel machi numbers.

(Updated 2019/08/04)

 

That's really tough to answer. Can be as little as one or two, or as many as five or six. It depends on many factors, like how busy I am, conflicting Wasamin events, which Teams are performing. (I usually avoid applying for Team 8) and I only occasionally apply for SKE.

Never have.

 

Finally won a show. Well, technically I got in via cancel machi. I had cancel machi #53 via Twin Pillars for tonight's Pajama Drive stage, which I found quite odd since traditionally Twin Pillars cancel machi goes up to #50. But I heard from someone that it now goes up to #60.

Anyway, the pre-show cancellations on the Ticket Center website were up to #45 by the mid-afternoon, then up to #50 by 5 p.m., so I knew I was getting in for sure. So it ended up being a win, and I got to participate in the seat lottery, where my good fortune came to a screeching halt. I'll write a report in the Pajama Drive stage thread soon.