Won a reservation, seeing the show!

I also win cancel machi for team 4 tomorrow! My number is in the 80s... And according to the website it seems like there is less than 5 cancellations so far? Do you think I should try to go anyway or is it hopeless?

 

There is this website where they post past cancel machi numbers, so it might be good for evaluating your chances of going in):
https://ameblo.jp/rokechi48/ (also useful for anyone else in a similar situation, of course)

If we take a look at women only stages in 2019, these were the cancel machi numbers it went up to:
Team 4 (February): #41 before seat lottery, #78 after lottery (snow day)
Makino Anna stage (March): final number unknown, but 50 cancellations beforehand (so it went to at least #50, but likely higher)
Team K (April): #48 before seat lottery, #79 after lottery (15 cancellations by 16:00 on the day of the performance)
Team 4 (May): #28 before seat lottery, #53 after lottery (10 cancellations beforehand)
Team A (September): #150 before lottery (less than 5 cancellations by 11:00 on the day of performance, typhoon day)
Team B (October): unknown
Team B (December): #150 before lottery, same day tickets available

So we can see that some of them went up to #150, which means everyone got in (note that doesn't mean that 150 people actually got in, it could be just a small number of people with cancel machis even showing up), but on the other hand some Team 4 shows earlier this year had pretty low cancel machi numbers. So it's really hard to say. I'd say if you wanna see the show, have the time to go and it's not too far away from you (like you are already in Tokyo or nearby, not traveling across Japan for it) you should go and hope for the best. You could also wait until the morning or noon and see if the cancellations number has grown at all. Most people who cancel do so on the day of the show or within the last few hours before the show, when they realize they won't be able to make it time-wise or they got sick or whatever. Note that even if you do get in it might be after seat lottery, so you would get a standing spot in the back (I don't know if this affects your choice or not).

 

I'm already in Tokyo so distance isn't really a problem. Oh well I think I'm just going to show up anyway, crossing fingers and trying my luck I guess. How long before the start of the show should I be in Donki would you suggest?

 

You need to be there at least 30 minutes before, but to be on the safe side aim for a bit earlier (especially if it's your first time to the theater and you're not used to the system yet). No need to show up there a whole hour earlier though as you'll just end up waiting longer for no good reason. They're gonna start announcing cancel machi numbers that can go buy the ticket before the seat lottery first, but in a case of a large number like yours or mine we are more likely to get in after the lottery, so we'll only be called within a few minutes before the show if at all. But definitely be there at least 30 minutes before, just in case there are many cancellations and you end up getting in before the seat lottery. By the way, in case you don't get the ticket, you can still watch the show on the screen in the lobby and maybe even do omiokuri, so if you want to do that, might be worth sticking around.

By the way, I'll probably come tomorrow too (although I don't have much hope of getting in with my number, and I don't plan to stick around for lobby viewing/omiokuri if I don't get in), so if you see a tall brown-haired 20-something western girl hanging out in the lobby, feel free to say hi

 

In case anyone is wondering, cancel machi for women only Team 4 show went to around 60? (forgot the exact number) for before lottery, and everyone got in after lottery (about 10-15 of us). I know women only stages are kind of a special case and tend to go to higher cancel machi numbers than regular stages, but I still want to encourage everyone to try and go to the theater even if they have a bad number, mine was #130 and I managed to get in

 

Forgot to post about it earlier but I won SKE’s Team KII women priority stage that was today. Just after that stage has finished, I also got an e-mail I got cancel machi for Thursday’s Team K stage through AKB Mobile. It’s #45 so hard to say whether I’ll get in or not.

 

Won RESET at HKT theater with outside the prefecture.

 

I met @Riina on Feb 6 Reset..

 

Won canmachi 102 for ODA’s seitansai, no chance for entry. But went anyway since it is second year in a row that I have canmachi for her seitansai and fail.

Also won yesterday’s Tadaima Renaichuu bu Himawarigumi stage by ippan.

On top of that won friday’s Theater no Megami by nihonbashiranokai.

 

The cancel machi ended up being up to around 60 for before lottery, and even more after. I ended up being really lucky with my group being called early in the lottery and just managed to get myself the last available front row seat

 

You were on the right most first row, weren't you? I was just few seats away on your left.. Next to the camera 1.. lol

 

Yep, first one in the line for omiokuri I saw you go in a bit before me so I figured you'd be somewhere in the front row but didn't see where exactly.

 

Not a theater show but I won a ticket for the Honey Harmony cafe event, Inagaki Kaori's event specifically (I only applied for Kaori's and all members one anyway). It's my first live 48 event since the pandemic started, and it's only 48 audience members per event, so I'm super excited

 

I won my first actual theater performance since the theater reopened! Boku no natsu ga hajimaru yo stage (it's pretty much all they're doing now anyways), Kurosu Haruka's seitansai on October 13th.

On a side note, my friend also won a theater performance this week, so the winning rate doesn't seem to be too bad (but obviously fan club membership is required to apply, unlike before).

 

I got a ticket for Friday's Team 4 Te wo Tsunaginagara, the first time they are doing a Team 4 stage after reopening!

I used my 98 benefit that I still had from the new year's goods to apply.