Event / Concert AKB48 53rd Single Sekai Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2018/06/16)

the Ogiyuka committee should write a book on how to vote on prelim and it would sell like hotcake to fund their campaign

 

On the STU topic, I’ll quote myself from the STU thread, even if @CutePanda disagrees


I think it's an amazing result if those 2 end up ranking?
I was expecting only Yumiko, and then Chiho was called lol

STU is just over a year old now, usually at this point only one of the aces ranks.
NMB debuted in 2010, Sayanee ranked in 2011.
HKT debuted in 2011, Sakura ranked in 2012.
NGT debuted in 2015, Katomina ranked in 2016.

So if STU manages to rank two girls this year, they're doing great.

—

Sure, it’s really their “second” election, but the first gen was introduced basically two months before last year’s, so it doesn’t really count.

It took the Eitos two years to have anyone ranking (Nagisa and Narumi in 2016), so if STU manages to do the same this year, it’s a win by my book.

 

Are you trying to imply Katomina is one of the NGT's aces?

 

She was!

 

Jurina's face during her & Ogiyuka's rank announcement was so unpleasant. Can't she be more grateful lol

 

Well..she was a short-lived ace, then. She can re-claim it if she manages to get to at least undergirls this year. I find it comical that out of all NGT's early pushes (rika, okappa and katomina).. Hinatan and Ogiyuka came out on top. Though, it looks like Katomina might have another shot.

I dount know why she was THAT surprised, ogiyuka was no 1 last year afterall. and she still has a pretty good chance at #1

 

i dont know if i want to label it as great its a starting point for sister group and STU fans could vote for their oshimen

 

Although the most likely outcome still seems to be J, saku, ogiyuka -- 1, 2, 3, this year is very exciting/interesting since any of the three have a decent chance to be number 1 with ogiyuka ranking first and the slow-starting sakura raising her prelim vote count by 10k. The most surprising outcome out of the 6 possible 1-2-3 outcomes imo is saku 1, ogiyuka 2 and J 3 lol.

I think there will be some PD48 votes coming in and these wouldn't appear in the first day votes since they would be voting by more traditional means.
I also think a fraction of sasshi's votes are in play since the number of sales are the same or greater. Also, nako doubled her prelim votes and she's a likely beneficiary of sasshi votes.

I'm most amazed by the rank and vote count for juri. I don't know how she gets up there keeping pace with okada when she's very low key and not in the limelight or news. I hope mion mainatains this pace and ends up around 10 or 11 if not higher. And what happened to renacchi?

 

One of current 21 aces.

 

Here’s hoping!

I’m surprised there are so many NGT girls ranking high in the prelims (Noepi, Tano, etc) and those who ranked well in the real SSK last year are so low.
I wonder if there is some big NGT committee that wants to push random girls as high as they can and just change their choice every year? lol

Would be amazing of Katomina ranked in senbatsu and got to center the next NGT single.

 

Was... this sarcastic?
Kato Minami was the girl who got about half of the spotlight and attention when the group was forming. She was Takahashi Minami's special chosen girl, "obvious" center and she was being handed the mic to speak on behalf of the group and performing her flips on stage and on shows all the time. The only other members that got any attention were Moeka and Noe. Go back to SashiKita Gassan or AKBingo around that time.

Although I didn't watch NGT48's individual TV show, maybe things were presented differently there?

That's also what makes OgiYuka's breakout so weird... she went from being practically a background character to being the main star in a single day because of the result. It was weird just how much last year's result just entirely flipped the whole script about how NGT was being presented. Kato Minami went from being the main focus to being a background character and Ogino was immediately made front-and-center-- though the focus on Moeka and Noe never really ended.

Whether you call it "illegitimate" or not is on you. I never said they were illegitimate unless you feel that opening multiple mobile accounts is illegitimate as I put that forward as a very good way.

But, if you use any other metric in any other point in the year to measure the respective fanbase, OgiYuka has about 1/2 to 1/3 of the fans that Sakura or Jurina have. Yet, somehow, they are able to get more votes on day 1 and/or get all those votes input on day 1.

So some sort of superior method for obtaining and inputting the votes has been found. "Hard work" doesn't explain it, because what you would really be saying is that Jurina and Sakura's fans are all lazy and not trying even half of what they could. And if that's what you are going to say-- say it directly instead of acting offended at the possibility that anyone could imply that Jurina and Sakura fans are not incredibly lazy and cheap in comparison.

It doesn't mean it is "illegitimate". It just means that they know something that that allows them to get nearly all of their votes in within that first 24 hours that no other election committee for any other member knows.

 

good summary, but you should have just come up with a better answer for your own first question

 

Everyone is so hyped about all the NGT members in senbatsu. After this year's prelims, my theory is that a group of hako-oshi are behind NGT's domination (that could explain why Okappa and Hinatan were "replaced" this year with Ayatani and Katomina) and their strategy is to vote A LOT before prelims. Whoever is behind this mass-voting is clearly a OgiYuka kami-oshi. On the other hand, I think Nakai Rika has a separate core fanbase (like how some people think Jurina's votes come from Jurina oshi, not SKE hako-oshi). They voted slowly last year, and Rikahime's votes have increased, so don't underestimate her!

 

We don't live in a single variable world, and the fact that you assume that more fans = more output shows your lack of understanding at how organizations/groups work. There are a myriad of variables that could affect votes ( technical skills gap, location, communication, undelivered CDs) but even if you insist on your explanation being the correct one, ever hear of law of diminishing returns? Two people making a single burger doesn't necessarily mean it will be made faster than a single person. A small core group of dedicated folks can easily outperform a larger disjointed group, especially in process intensive operations.

I can only speak for Minami, but this year her committee had a concerted strategy on early voting.

 

I explained how they did last year, they kept the farm alive and thus were able to do it again. And they will continue to do it as long as they keep the accounts running.

Ogiyuka fans just like to throw all the meat from the start thinking fans that might be swaying between her and someone else finally go for her after noticing her numbers. Others prefer to take it easy (Kojiharu complained about that, remember?)

(PS: Thus, don't be surprised if an NGT song ranks first or second in next Request Hour).

 

blah.. blah.. my oshi is not No.1, complaining... complaining... Question - Are you actually vote? and then complain about the results when you are not actually vote. hmmm...

 

Does anyone have another link to the results video? It only shows the first 6 minutes of the announcement for me.

 

The video are divided into some short videos based on which theatre they are recorded. You have to click on which you want to see. See the AKB, SKE, NMB, NGT, STU below the description.

 

By the way, I guess I should post this in last year's Election thread, but don't want to revive old ones. Kaotan just posted her SKE48 Documentary, "Senbatsu Sousenkyo 2017 - Our Election". For things like this she became senbatsu.


if the video does not show watch the video here

 

Kaotan's 2016 documentary is literally the best documentary I've ever seen, looking forward to watching this one.