Single Nogizaka46 35th [Chance wa Byoudou] (2024.04.10)

Real M&G results, 1st round (not counting ongoing 'salvage' period)

Spoiler: Members who have sold out ALL slots

Iwamoto Renka
Umezawa Minami
Kubo Shiori
Yamashita Mizuki (on 5/6 only)
Yoda Yuki
Endo Sakura
Kaki Haruka
Tamura Mayu
Tsutsui Ayame
Yumiki Nao
Ioki Mao
Ikeda Teresa
Ichinose Miku
Inoue Nagi
Ogawa Aya
Okuda Iroha (on 5/26 only)
Kawasaki Sakura
Sugawara Satsuki
Tomisato Nao
Nakanishi Aruno

Spoiler: 5/6/24 Kyoto

Nakamura Reno will not participate due to schedule conflict.
Okuda Iroha's participation status is currently listed as 'TBA'.
(Edit: Okuda Iroha will not be participating, confirmed 4/24/2024)

(All participating members not on the list above are 0/4)

Spoiler: 5/26/24 Makuhari

Nakamura Reno will not participate due to schedule conflict.
Yamashita Mizuki will have graduated by this time.

Sakaguchi Tamami 3/4
Shibata Yuna 3/4
Sato Kaede 2/4
Sato Rika 2/4
Hayashi Runa 2/4
Matsuo Miyu 2/4
Okamoto Hina 2/4
Ito Riria 0/4
Mukai Hazuki 0/4
Yoshida Ayano Christie 0/4
Kuromi Haruka 0/4
Seimiya Rei 0/4
Yakubo Mio 0/4

 

this just debunk people who doubt several senior members popularity. Kubo, ume, yoda, renka and mizuki still can sell like hot cakes. And I think this show that the sold out member still has selling power while members in third list.... well...

 

I don't think they're very many people who doubt the popularities of those members in particular...

 

10 out of 11 5ki sold out, wow....
I'm surprised that Kuromi didn't sell yet even though she sold individual meguri rather well.

 

Profile photos have been updated: https://www.nogizaka46.com/s/n46/search/artist?ima=1801&ct=all
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Kakehashi's hasn't changed... (sad).

 

Interesting article on Billboard Japan: https://www.billboard-japan.com/d_news/detail/136902
It discusses Chance's billboard numbers against previous Nogi singles. Turns out it comes 3rd in the last ten singles only being beaten by Kokoni and SukiRock. Although these are billboard Japan numbers, I find it weird that this single is doing such numbers -- doesn't it feel like this one is a failure?

 

New propics are very nice. Would be nice to see also all the past pictures. The most recent photo for every member is visible (for example, clicking in the "ast selected member / any single. But only the last picture for any member. Would be nice to see them all I guess they have them stored somewhere.

 

Because of real M&G picking up?
The first real M&G was on June last year. Any single before that only had online M&G (same as the usual online M&G) and online sign kai which you're more likely to get strucked by lightning than win. One entry is three tickets too (three blurays basically).
People will more likely bulk-buy if the tickets can be used to meet the members in real life too, rather than just these two online events.

 

Rakuten Girls Award Spring performance


if the video does not show watch the video here
Credit to uploader

 

With the 35th Single Under Live coming in a few days, it seems we're about done with this single's promotion time, and now we await for the next one. But before that happens, I'm going to rank this single's songs. This is how I think of them. I am sure sometime in the future they will change.

1. Chance wa Byoudou
I am nothing if not a Mizuki fan. Yeah, this isn't one of their best title songs -- it's C tier at best, but Mizuki did her best to make me like it. Sadly it indicates where Nogi's music is for me. These last few singles haven't moved me the same as a few years ago. Maybe I am falling out of touch...

2. Jaane ga Setsunai
The way the first few bars sound like the Madoka OP is why I like it.

3. Shadougawa
Even the Under's song isn't as good anymore. Maybe I am falling out of touch...

4. Ato 7-Kyoku
This should've been higher. I loved Atono Matsuri. I should love this one. Yet it's missing something. Maybe it's overcrafted and should've been a bit more lofi. One thing I know though is I find that I like Sakuchan's voice.

5. Bunbuku Chagama
I hated this on first listen. At the moment, I sort of dig it. It's intro grates, but once past that it's okay.

6. Salvia no Hana wo Oboeteirukai?
Nothing to say about this song. Is that damning?

7. Natsuzakara
Sorry, Mizuki, it's not the song itself which is fine, but I don't really appreciate solo graduation songs. She did a fine performance at her grad concert so there's that.

Welp. That's it. I guess we'll see how it goes for the 36th single. If I had a choice, I would make Endo center crowning her Nogi's ace...

 

Well ditto, the last Nogizaka title track that impress me was Hito wa yume wo. I though it was really a good song to welcome new era, but sadly those new era song not even impress me. I expecting more for summer single tho, and I think Kakki, Nagi, or another 5th gen is good choice for center position.

 

^ Different with me though, some recent Nogi A-sides are still on my Liked playlist: Kokoni, Boku boku, Ohitorisama and KimiShika. I listen to it daily.
Although I do agree that Monopoly is boring and Chance is losing steam pretty fast.
I still believe they can comeback with a better song, the only problem is mgmt doesn't seem to put much effort into Nogi's single release anymore.

 

Me too, I love everything of HitoYume. The melody, the lyrics (very meaningful 10/10), the choreography and of course the line-up.
Ohitorisama is a fun song for summer, I rate 8/10
Monopoly is bland and Chance is a meh for me.
This summer if they choose another 5th gen other than Nagi then it has to be Mikuyn. Her smile, her energy is the best fit for summer. I always enjoy Girls' Rule with Miku center. Sakutan is also a good choice, summer is the time for best smile.

 

Miku was indeed a cheerful girl which suit summer concept, but I think she was prepared to be captain so the chance for center position is soso. Sakutan was def pushed since the early year, she's one of the stronger center candidate with Terepan or Satsuki. Well I am not really into Nogi, so I don't really understand how management usually hint fans about their new center, but I have strong guts it could be Terepan

 

Under Live ended with Iroha joining for 2nd encore. also was the last Under concert or full concert for Rei.
emotions aside, that lineup was arguably the strongest Under lineup in recent years with Ayame and new Under Live captain Miyu leading the lines. But I think the setlist/performances was a bit on the safe side although it was good with everyone playing their part in it , with nothing too flashy nor surprising despite the lineup.

 

The easy way to guess center candidates is seeing who management groups together. I think this strategy goees back to NanMai days, It's not foolproof, but it's a convenient short hand to see which center candidates...

Now for 5th Gen, it's a bit murky. Early on it would've been NagiSatsu, but with Satsuki in Under. It feels like that plan may be on hold. Anther choice would be Sakutanchan, yet management hasn't really paired them together often. I would think currently it would be Nagi x Aruno knowing that Nagi does like Aruno, but Aruno's baggage. It's getting to be such that there isn't a natural pair in 5th Gen like a Kuboshita, KakiSaku, or Nanase x Maiyan. We'll have to wait and see what arises...

Well all the non-selling 3rg gen ended up in senbatsu, so that's why the Unders were so strong! LOLz!

I liked Ano Hi, Shitto no Kenri, and Futogou block. It was good to hear Branco and even Ikoma heard about Rei-chan's Against. But of course, it had to be the AyaRei ending that there was not a dry eye in the audience.

 

I agree there are no clear cut candidates for 5ki. It could be Satsuki, Sakutan, Terepan, Miku, Ioki, Aruno or even Aya.

But to be honest, until last year I thought Sakutan was a strong candidate. She was actually paired with Nagi quite often. There were some skits where they were together, a CM last year, I believe there are more but I can't recall on top of my head.

Sakutan and Satsuki are definitely the early mgmt choice. But with Satsuki slowing down on HS till falling to Under and recently Sakutan slowing down as well, along with her minor scandals, I think their chances are slim now.

Teresa might be possible. But she might be busy with her study.

Miku and Ioki chance is pretty low key for now. They both don't seem to get a strong push, although they have their popularity.

As for Aruno, she will need to undeniably rise up passing the other 5th gen candidates before she can get chosen, to make up for the past. Definitely too soon.

That's why I would think if 36th single center is 5ki, it will be Nagi again, to solidify her position even more. Then from 37th onward, maybe another 5ki candidate may arise.

 

I think management still hasn't decided who will be paired with Nagi yet. Just from this year, we have NagiSatsu in Sailor Moon, NagiSaku in 35th single and the CupStar CM, NagiAru in singing, even NagiTere in the photobook.
Personally, NagiSatsu is my fave and maybe the most popular to the public but Satsuki dropped to Under making the chance for her very low.
Management has been pushing Sakutan lately so who knows?
Terepan with her popularity lately is a great choice but I'd rather Terepan solo center than Nagi-Tere WCen.

Nagi center with 5ki in first-row sounds great.
With Shokichi, Nao, Aru back to senbatsu and Aya debut that would be 9 members of 5ki in senbatsu, let's make this year the summer of 5ki.

 

Looking at the venue, Osaka and Nagoya, the most possible is either Kakki or Ensaku will lead the groups

If there is a chance for new center, personally Sachiko is suitable for summer projects. She's energic, has loud voice, reliable at MC, can sing and good at communicaton

At the other hand, i dont know if Aruno will join this nogi's summer project. Many of her own fans know the situation, sometimes be furious, and dont really expect from the hopeless management. Yet still, many of them wanna support her and talk to her. No pushed and no need to outstripping. Aruno has itself, has her own regular programs and fans.

On which way that she become less popular, especially, within 5th gen members for now?

 

5th Gen MV incoming on a 46 Minute TV:

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