Single Nogizaka46 9th "Natsu no Free & Easy" (14/07/09)

hhahaa do you forget or dont you know about manattan case? after she was airdropped to fukujin + nogidok ep where she fought literally the whole group, she suddenly was put in 3rd row but in her case, despite her being super popular + sold out hs sales.

this is what i like about ngzk46, they randomly put the girl everywhere they want to cause some stirs but at the same time they put a deserve girl in her deserve position to counter balance the stir they caused. we can see this in most single. the most significant example when they put miona as centre but at same time they put misa and other as 1st time senbatsu to reduce the hate.

 

It wasn't really immediately for Miona's drop.

It was from center to front-row fukujin to back-row fukujin. So it wasn't that harsh as compared to center > back-row.
Although I kind of foresaw Miona's drop, I was expecting 2nd row fukujin but I didnt expect her to drop to 3rd row straightaway, plus no other 2nd Gens got a spot in senbatsu ..

Thats probably one downside of Nogizaka's system, that new gen members would be harder to be pushed compared to AKB's format like u see the new gens sometimes getting exposure to boost their popularity.

Good or bad system, it really depends on perspective I guess?
Hoping for a 2nd gen song Bside in this single though (And new units hehe)

A wakasama x reika unit or maiyan x sayurin bakcouple unit would be fun

 

Bringing back Hoshimina compromises Miona's spot like crazy; this whole time I thought Minami was replaced by Miona because she was lazy. However, because Ikuchan's gone for a while, management needed another kawaii girl to fill her spot and what better way than bring one of the original centers to the lineup that started so many songs with Ikuchan and Ikomachan. Having Rena in the lineup did not help Miona whatsoever; while it may have been reported that Miona gave her spot to Rena (and Rena was going to be a Fukujin member no matter what, even if Miona didn't offer her spot), seeing Miona drop to a borderline senbatsu spot was surprising.

Sucks for a lot of members who won't make continuous senbatsu lineups. Especially this one, since I think the identity of the undergirls was lost with Yuttan. For some odd reason I always saw her as a continuous undergirl and a face of that lineup (kinda like what Hoshimina was doing during her two rounds as an undergirl). I could say the same with Sayunyan, but I could not say the same with Misa, as she seemed like a senbatsu member that was screwed over by management. Now it's up to Rottii, Bebitan, Maichun, Ashurin, Hinapyon, and maybe Maaya (I hope she ends up as center for an undergirls song!) to pick up the slack. I don't think that's gonna happen this time around...but I have faith in Nogizaka to continue the trend I've noticed: the undergirls song ending up with better songs than senbatsu. That's just my opinion though.

And on an unrelated note: bringing Rena to Nogizaka has done it's justice. SKE was the LAST group I paid attention to, since it was Nogi, NMB, AKB and HKT in that order. Putting Rena in Nogizaka made me do more research on SKE and how fantastic their girls are (especially Aya, Churi, and that's it honestly). So I think this was what Aki-P was intending sending Rena to Nogizaka. Had this been Jurina, this'd be a different story. But this is a story for another day lol

 

most Ngzk fans like Nanase because she's cute and her kind personality, giving them very little reason to dislike. As far as general fans, they don't know much about her and just look at her as a cute girl. Maiyan is more strikingly model-esque while Nanase is just the cute girl-next-door. Nogizaka sold more transitioning to a Maiyan center then they ever did transitioning to a Naachan center (Kizuitara) which is why I prefer a Maiyan center.

since Nogizaka rotates centers basically every single this is making me nervous that Nanase might become Ngzk's perma-center b/c I think her representing the group is too much weight on her shoulders. Even japanese fans are starting to oppose a Nanase reign! Make it stop!

if any1 is most saddened by miona's drop don't talk 2 me because it's the most reasonable decision during the whole announcement

 

Sorry, but I think your logic is a little skewed. I don't think Koisuru Fortune Cookie was a big hit because of Sashihara. Also, where are you getting your info about her fans financial status? Maybe she actually has more fans to vote for her and buy her stuff. When I went to Fuji TV's United States of Odaiba last summer, KFC was heavily campaigned. Some AKB members were there to teach the choreography to the public. Since the song was catchy and the dance moves were fun to do, it was a sure summer hit. You still have people making KFC dance videos to this day! Although I don't follow AKB, the last single I bought from them happened to be KFC because I really liked the song not because of Sashihara centering. I am willing to bet a majority of non AKB followers who bought that single can say the same. Same goes for Kizuitara and non Ngzk fans.

If it really is about the money why hasn't Sashihara been center since Koisuru? Wouldn't mgmt keep her at center to make more money? Also, why did Maiyan get dropped from center and replaced by Miona who wasn't in anyone's radar at the time? I seriously doubt mgmt put Miona at center because they felt they were gonna rake in tons of money with her. Why not let Miona stay center because Barrette outsold Garuru? Shouldn't mgmt put all the popular members in senbatsu to maximize profits? What happens to Naachan if this upcoming single doesn't surpass Kizuitara's sales?

 

Check out these photos, all members expressions seems quite solemn, Ikoma seems happy judging from her expression.
This is probably why I don't really mind Ikoma not being center (currently), she seems happier nowadays, and shes been getting more media exposure (TV appearances and magazines appearances/covers).





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Speaking of center, I think most of us wasn't expecting a repeat center, and was expecting a Maiyan return for summer single, maybe thats why some are not that supportive of a Nanase center. While I also expected Maiyan to center this as in my head Summer = Maiyan (Maiyan is on cover for Nogizaka's early-summer theme season photobook releasing in June by the way), I wanna wait and see how they are going to incorporate Nanase into a summer song (I presume it would me a summer-ish song since its that period).

Lets wait and hope for the best

 

That's the thing. I like Ikoma much more now than I did before, and it's clear that she really enjoys herself now. Being the center is a pressure-cooker situation, especially when you are considered 'immovable' center as she was whilst not being the most popular member. From being moved back she's been given the space to grow as a person separate from 'center' identity and it's a joy to watch. Not surprising at all that unlike many of the other members she doesn't stress out about her position in senbatsu.

 

I agree. A lot of people were expected to see a new center. When it came down to Maiyan and Naachan I was thinking "oh Maiyan back at center!" but that didn't happen. I was a little disappointed but I feel it's wrong to hate on Naachan returning. I don't like heights and her Macau Tower bungee is worthy for another run at center imo.

I too have grown more fond of Ikomachan now. It's evident she is more relaxed than when she was center. I do hope some of her antis have a change of heart.

 

9th Single's 1st Round HS Result
From left to right are: Rank, blocks sold out, changes in blocks sold out, members' name.

01. 04/30 (+04) Nishino Nanase


Not much to say for now lol, only Naachan sold out thus far. xD
A thing to note tho is that no one sold out in the 1st round for the last single, so this is an improvement.

 

Wonder when will the new single be revealed, I doubt it would be soon with all the sousenkyo hype going on

 

It'd be funny if Ikomachan reveals the name of the single if she makes the election (we're all predicting undergirls since senbatsu is a longshot), or if Rena makes Kami7, maybe she'll reveal the name of the new single.

Let me say this though, if Rena is accepted by Nogizaka Nation, she only needs a few more votes to surpass Jurina, if not Sasshi or Mayuyu. Maybe the nation will vote for her as will the SKE faithful? But again, that's a story for another day.

 

I highly doubt any Nogizaka fans would vote for Rena in this year's sousenkyo, she hasn't even officially started any Nogizaka activities, this sunday's doko is her 1st appearance. Even if some nogizaka fans vote for Rena it would be quite a small number so it probably would not be that significant.

I doubt that would happen, normally girls thank their fans and stuff when they go up, I wouldn't want her to reveal the name of 9th single when she goes for her speech. While senbatsu might be hard to obtain, she still has a shot, we'll probably see come prelims results this 21st May. There are some ikoma fans campaigning for her by handing out fliers and tissues. Ikoma is probably a wild card in this elections, as most other members know roughly how far they stand but for ikoma its anywhere from 1st to 80th to unranked

 

I agree with Ikoma being a willdcard. It all depends on whether and to what extent all Nogizaka46 wota, not just Ikoma wota, powervote her in the election. If the Nogizaka fan community buy into the idea in a big way she can easily make senbatsu, ~50,000 votes needed. If it's just her own wota voting for her the best she can probably hope for is lower half of Undergirls. Perhaps a Maiyan or Naachan could make senbatsu on the strength of their own wota, but I digress.

 

I don't think Nogi wotas will powervote her, TBH.

 

@ ^ : I also think so. I think the main reason Ikoma's concurrency is to creating buzz and a form of push for her. If Aki-P want a member of Nogi to rank high in sousenkyo, he wouldn't pic Ikoma. She doesn't have strong fanbase in Nogi. So, let's just wait and see. I may be wrong.

 

Agreed.
I think at most 10-15% of her votes would come from non ikoma oshi nogizaka fans plus maybe some of the general public, at most 20%.

80% or so of the votes would probably come from ikoma wotas

Can't wait for 21st may, prelim results! Previous years Ssk was interesting enough But this year hoho

 

Agree that most of the votes will come from her fans.

I wonder what will happen if she does not have a good result. What would this mean for Rina-chan, the kennin (if they are planning to do it again with her or other members) and the group itself.

 

Going off Ikomachan's HS sales, let's assume they all voted giving her 2,500. Add another 1,250 say half of those voters are Ikoma wota and they voted twice giving her 3,750 total votes. I'm playing it safe with Ikoma wota and only giving 2 votes each. I'm not counting general Ngzk wota and casual fans. 3,750 is really low going into SSK especially this year's votes will trump previous SSK numbers. One thing to also consider is that not all Ikoma wota throughout the country can make it to HS events.

I do feel rather optimistic for Ikomachan though. I think the preliminary result will make general Ngzk wota and casual fans band together and power vote her. Since she is the only representative for Ngzk it really is an advantage. As a Ngzk fan, I personally don't want her to lose. The only negative thing that I do see happening is that she will gain more anti if she ranks high in SSK.

 

^I'm gonna try estimating her votes too lol, altho there's gonna be no real good way to do so. xD

I'll start with her HS results too, which gives at least 2,500 votes. For the rest of her blocks, they may not have sold out but chances are they aren't empty either. Assuming they are 50% full (totally random guess lol) x 25 blocks not sold out, that's a further 6,250, adding to the previous number that gives a total of 8,750 votes. Now assuming some non-Ikoma-oshis will vote too, this is gonna be even harder to estimate lol. I'm going to base this off Soundscan, cuz I'm going to assume other wota's HS purchase power will remain that: to purchase HS tickets. KizuKata's Soundscan number was 117,543 in sales. As for the amount of ppl that will be interested in voting Ikoma, I'm going to base this off that Yahoo! Japan poll that shows roughly 50% against concurrency, 30% don't know/no opinion/wait & see, & 20% for results. Assuming that half of those 20% will be interested in voting Ikoma, that's 117,543 x 10% for some 11,754.3 votes. Adding that to 8,750 gives us some 20,504 votes, which if it was the vote count for last year's ssk, will be enough for #33 & to centre Next Girl lolol. Some ppl I included might not vote, but some might vote two or three times so I'm just gonna assume it evened out somehow lol.

So my very rough estimate is 20.5k votes. Before doing any math I was guessing 20k too (still enough for #33 last year lol.) The math above contain so much assumptions/guesses its mind-blowing tho lol, making it very much just that, a guess. But I suppose its good to have something to base a guess on. xD

 

I'd love it if Nogifans would go all "You want Nogi in your AKB soup? There you go!" and powervote Ikoma to the top.

They CAN do it if they want.
With half of what their last single sold (500k), they could put her way ahead of the rest. That is, assuming all Nogifans are not AKB fans (which I doubt very much). But even with a quarter of those sales (125k) it would be enough for her to have a real chance.