Event / Concert 32nd Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo

as kamen knight said,
i dont like that, new generation couldnt be rank, if some old ladies are going to participate.
Great marketing, but unnecessary

oh btw, I predict, that some big name are not register (Kojima, Mariko, maybe Yuko)

 

Heck. I can see lots of drama possibilities and extra spice for the opt in/opt out candidacy ("I will graduate, if i am not reaching 20k votes"-storylines or whatever). I hear that members arent too happy with the sousenkyo anyways, so if they can decide on their own, and if they have the balls, maybe they opt out to show their dislike. But those are two big IFs.
This graduate member-thing is a little beyond my imagination. It does give an extra twist, but a somewhat undesired one. Graduations happen for a reason, and why on earth should a former member ask for candidacy? It`s the "Hello, my solo progress is a little lacking recently"-kind of statement.
It also kind of contradicts the whole transition to chapter 2, doesn`t it. If Acchan comes back (which better informed posters already denied here), she will win the whole thing for sure, which would be a little bit embarrassing for the new gang. Plus, from what i know, no other graduated member would be in serious contention for senbatsu (maybe Erepyon?). I mean, nobody would apply here to aim for a glorious undergirl spot, or? Unless, some serious troll campaign is taking over. We have seen things like that. Like 100ks of people signing up for a petition to the US government in order to have them build a Death Star.
However, they wouldnt do sth like this without having some extra tricks up their sleeves, so we better watch out.

 

Well I can talk only about my personal experience. As an one single girl oversea fan I cannot participate HS events thus cannot channel my hard earned cash towards my favorite and get something back from it. While with election single it's all about single girl. Yes there are girl specific merchandise available to spend on, but the emotional feedback you get from election announcement ceremony seeing you favorite girl trying talk trough tears and you know that she got that position because of your wallet effort. That's completely another level.

And the truth is despite my moaning here if my fav applies I will get in line and open my wallet again. I'm totally Aki-P bitch and I hate this.

 

The bolded part will only happen if Yuko sit out, as Acchan's wota already cooled down or moved onto another girl. Maybe I'm biased, but after a year, maybe even Mayuyu can pose a challenge to Acchan now if she come back.

 

ok, so let's think from the management point of view. If they apply this kind of new system of vote, and popular going-to-be-graduated doesn't ask to participate, it is almost sure it would be a huge loss in term of sales ( tomomi by herself it's 50 000 sales).

Of course people can support others of their favorite but not as strong as their kami oshi. I know japanese friend who are tomomi oshi and won't vote at all if she graduate.

And if it's not popular member who wish to make a come back, without any exposure it is likely to be a flop ( i mean not entering top40,or not even ranking). So as i said before it is not worth the try.

In that case, what is the benefitsn of the management to do that kind of system? The only proper reason would be to let Yuko not participate but also not meaning her graduation.

 

I think the big names should have some duty to participate to drive up sales and also to create a stronger fan-selected senbatsu. Only girls who are about to graduate should think of sitting out with the idea of allowing other members to take their spots as it helps these new girls' akb careers moving forward.

It'd be really interesting if acchan participated but she has nothing to gain and lots to lose. If she wins then it's expected but if she places say, 5th, then that sort of tarnishes her akb legacy and outside of akb popularity as well. Although she'll be in the news a lot if she does participate.

Hmm, I think mayu would rather win for sure rather than have a non-guaranteed and even uphill battle against yuko. Center is center, doesn't matter who was there or not especially if it's your first time to top the election.



now I have to start saving so I can multiple vote for one shimazaki haruka.

 

Yeah I agree, I think this time around, the anticipation is all on Mayuyu right now. [rock]

But I have a feeling this election's results are gonna be interesting, well at least enough to significantly change the Senbatsu and possibly the Face of AKB for the years to come... [think]

 

If senior members decide to opt out, it will likely have little to no impact on the sales:

- They are still participating in the voting single itself.
- They will still be attending the Theater Edition HS event.
- There likely are other members that their fans will be happy to vote for instead.

Regardless of who does or does not participate, this CD will sell better than the previous two, and likely by a fair margin.

 

If we are to think from the management point of view, I think it's safe to assume they already have a solid idea of which girls are going to enter, and which are not before they announce the new rule. The loss of profit, if it's going to happen, will happen anyway regardless whether they change the rule or not. Even without the new rule a girl can still sit out herself if she want, and with the new rule, only a very naive less popular girl would sit herself out without consent of management anyway, so in general nothing will change.
It's possible that Yuko is sitting out, but I don't think she has any issue with announcing it either. The fans know she's going to graduate soon, within less than 1 or 2 years at most, and the management know that. With or without the rule, the final result won't change much. That's why I was pondering, seems pointless if this change is for Yuko only.

 

I don't think I like this. Announcing candidacy is one thing, I don't mind that.

The allowance for graduated girls to join the election really puts a bad taste in my mouth though, I don't know why everyone seems so intrigued by it.

Not that I'm suspecting what a lot of people are expecting; while it does SEEM tailor-made for Acchan, upon consideration, there's no freaking way she's going to announce candidacy. That ship has sailed.

My problem is, all the other ships have sailed, too. AKB is all about "seishun", your shining moments in youth when you're doing something you can never go back and do again. They have umpteen songs about it, and even the recent SKE grad song has it in the title, lol. That's why graduation has such impact...once you're out, you're out, you've moved on (doesn't apply to girls who got forcibly kicked out and re-applied). To allow graduated members to apply for the election when they are not even part of the group anymore seems like it's revoking the forward-facing spirit of "moving on" and going against the original concept of the election.

It may be an unlikely scenario, but what happens if one of the comeback girls gets a spot in senbatsu? She's there for a single like a tacked-on curiosity, then she disappears after the promos for that single are over? Her role in performances of that single from then on will be played by someone else entirely? Plus, the election results are used as a general template for who goes into senbatsu in the following singles for the year, I guess that would conveniently free up a spot for "random management-pushed girl #5174" without having to kick someone others like out of their senbatsu spot.

And think of how the poor new gens must feel. Now they not only have to go up against their already-established seniors, but even the ones who have already left the group! What the crap is that. I feel really bad for them.

It may not be such a big deal if very few graduates sign up, but it's the principle of the thing. Yeah there are members I wouldn't mind seeing come back, but realistically, I don't want them to come back. I want those in the 48 groups right now to battle it out in the election, not girls who have already given up their right to do so.

 

Yeah true, even though a lot of people here are predicting about graduated members entering the Sousenkyo this year, i'm pretty sure that half if not all of us are only joking about that

Cause realistically and logically, there's absolutely no way any of the graduates would be dumb enough to enter...

It would give the impression that they're just trying to troll AKB and the fans on voting

 

Oh no, like HRP said earlier, there must be at least one graduated girl confirmed for putting in candidacy or else they wouldn't even bother announcing that rule. I don't think there will be MANY, but there will probably be at least one or two.

 

Oh shit Actually??! Yeah that's true, even though it's odd that they would make a rule like that, there's got to be a reason why... [shock]

Although there may not be many who will apply, even if there's one member that will....this year is gonna be interesting...

 

Imagine if this was senbatsu. lol

"Urano Kazumi, Ohori Megumi, Oku Manami, Ono Erena, Kohara Haruka (?), Sato Natsuki, Sato Yukari, Nakaya Sayaka, Noro Kayo, Hirata Rikako, Hirajima Natsumi, Maeda Atsuko, Masuda Yuka, Yonezawa Rumi"

(yeah I know I just copy-pasted that, it was a joke. =P)

anyway
I kinda like the candidacy thing... I think it could go horribly wrong though. Like, if, say, everyone who ranked in senbatsu last year theoretically didn't run. It doesn't seem likely, but I worry about like... Yuko, since she was, I suppose, unmotivated...? hmm Well no Acchan meant no big competition... It was clear by vote counts that it was Yuko>>>>>>>Mayu>>>Yukirin rather than the previous year's Acchan>>>Yuko>>>>>>>Yukirin. (Meaning that the gap between Yuko and Mayu was still much more overwhelming compared the where Yukirin -- meaning, 3rd place -- was in terms of votes.) I feel like Yuko really should participate, but whether she will or not... I feel like she may not... At the same time, she might feel obligated to, to give Mayu a fair fight and also for the sales... It'd make sense but it kinda feels... forced...? hmm

I wonder if this means less KKS will decide to run? Because it might just be a waste of time for them since they're not as well known generally. (I guess 12th gen is pretty well known though...) Getting a KKS to rank is clearly very rare. Last year it was just Tomu and Kaotan (SKE), right? (err just 2 I think... cmiiw) But at the same time... Maybe they have a sliiiightly better chance to get into like, Future girls or something. like... Because many mid-ranking girls may not participate... I kinda hope for the remaining 12th gen KKS that they run and rank, or even get promoted... Sorry, a bit off topic there, but I do hope to see them at least give it a shot.......

Maybe for new/less known/less popular girls, it's actually a good opportunity since there will be girls clearing out and not entering... I figure girls who are graduating don't really plan to be in this, so we know from that there should be some senbatsu (and thus also lower rank) spots opening up. The SKE girls who are graduating probably won't join, I'd think... I feel like if they are choosing to leave the group, they have a reason for it, and they wouldn't want to go backwards. If they aren't there, well, more spots open up, considering last year's truckload of SKE girls. LOL
Some of their top girls are gone... I wonder if SKE will hold as many spots this year.

Guess we will see... I think this could go bad if not done right, but I think management knows how to do it right, or else they wouldn't have come up with it in the first place. lol

 

i sincerely hope Yuko will opt out of the election, i mean i really do not want her to lose by someone else other than Acchan, i mean isn't akb 1st chapter all about how Acchan and Yuko lead AKB, if Yuko opt out, she will be seen as a legend like Acchan and i want her to be seen like that, and it would also make the 2nd chapter thing more, you know separate with Mayuyu and etc taking top spots , but i guess it won't happen because of the sales and so, so yeah, oh and Acchan is not going back, she moved on and she's really busy these days too

 

if Yuko does opt out of this election, it will totally be a Mayuyu vs Yukirin thing
& Yukirin center would troll Aki-P so badly

 

Looks like my view on Yuuko is the unpopular one. I think as long as she's being forced to stay in AKB she may as well soak up some more of the spotlight and enter the election. I don't think it's a given that she would win. Mayu could win. Even Paru could come out of left field and win (although that could be unlikely, she's gotten so much push in the past year that it's possible).

 

Maybe the whole graduated members thing will be a chance for some girls to feel the joy of performing in AKB again even if they've decided to leave and all that.

I see it a bit like Morning Musume OG or whatever it's called. There's Morning Musume and then another MM with the graduated members. I think it was a one time thing only, but... fans were drolling all over the floor seeing all the old gens together again.

So maybe this is like that, a one time thing and that's it. And c'mon, even the janken thing is a bit like a one time thing. How many times has the first winner been in the senbatsu? How many times has Mariko centered a single?

I don't think of this as a step back. Yeah, fans can cling to the past and this 2nd chapter will never begin and all that... but I don't know. I see it as a nice gesture.

 

^
^ I'm with you regarding Yuko too, although for different reason =) I'd prefer Yuko entering this Sousenkyo, even if that means she is likely going to beat my oshi, at least she will give her a fair fight. Winning because your biggest opponent left is just... anti-climatic (what Yuko experienced last year), and I'm not sure Mayuyu (or any girl who is going to take #1) would like that.

 

I expect Yuko to be sitting out, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if she didn't announce that she was going to graduate by the end of year at the Budokan concerts in April.

As to whether other girls are going to take part ... I would expect that nigh on all of the normal active members will do so. It might though be the case that if a member was expecting that they were going to drop a large amount (to an unranked position maybe) or even expected not to be ranked then they might choose to not be left seated whilst those around them are called (I'm reminded of Matsubara Natsumi last year after the rest of Team A had been called).

Regarding the graduated members who could take part ... on top of the list given by HRP what about the SKE girls who are due to graduate soon? Given they would be graduates by then would this still allow them to take part if they wanted if they had the years to qualify.

I don''t see Acchan taking part ... it would probably be a bad thing both for her and the group as a whole.