From the looks of things, 2016~2017 should be the most difficult year for AKB48. Sasshi, Kojiharu, Takamina, Rena, Yukirin... Heck, even Mayuyu is showing signs of graduation. I feel sorry for Yuihan, who most likely have to shoulder the entirety of this period. In the 3 years, we had Acchan vs Yuko. In recent years, we have Mayuyu vs Sasshi. Mayuyu did well, it must've been difficult to carry a group left behind by Acchan and Yuko, the pressure she must've endured so far. Not sure if Sakura-tan push will work out... Even if it does, Paruru is 4 years her senior, so I'm not seeing them generating enough drama in SSK... 48G desperately need some kids to really shine this year or the next before it's too late... The future sure look dim right now. Decline seem inevitable... Aki-P talked about how Team-8 will be the future, but I'm not convinced... What can AKB48 do to stay on top. Or is it Nogizaka46's time to shine as AKB48 regroup and rebuild? Just what exactly is Aki-P planning
Yeh I kinda get the feeling the AKB novelty is wearing off in Japan maybe....who knows. And I think managements crass commericialism the past few years has something to do with damaging the aura of the brand. The kennin nonsense is just another example of it. Well if they are going to go that route.... I think they need to start hiring real Japanese singing stars to perform for just occasional singles, MVs, and TV performances. Even the concessional handshake event...pay them well. Male and female singing stars.... imagine Atsushi centering a real song, singing with the girls. That would be totally awesome. Spoiler if the video does not show watch the video here
The kennin are in place solely to help AKB make the million mark. (My speculation) As for collab with other singers.... No. It will only be a temporary solution, in fact, I don't encourage it. AKB48 have always been a group that stands on it's own feet and build the best character they can build. I think the priority should be developing the girls that are already under the 48 banner. There's simply not enough strong characters around, need to be a bit more extreme in their approach. Nowadays, every girl seem like good girls. (The new kids anyways) Back in the original kami-7. We have 6 outstanding character with 1 common but charming girl(Acchan). Management push the common one, and they end up with 7 bright stars. Depending on Sakura's growth, Sakura vs Jurina could be a thing. They're only 1 years apart in age. And they're both pushed heavily... Right now, there's not enough bright characters out there... Are Kizaki Yuria, Koji Mako, Muto Tomu, Haruppi, Kimoto Kanon, Takahashi Juri and the likes are strong enough to compliment the era? Personally, I think *Management need to invest heavily in current Team 4 from now, that team is young and filled with potential to shine in the next 2 years.* Now I think about it though, the best rivalry are often between Management favorite vs Fan favorite. Acchan vs Yuko was like that, so was Mayuyu vs Sasshi. That don't seem possible now... In hindsight... Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong. a lot of graduation will happen within the next 2 years, and a bunch of new girls will make senbatsu for the first time and their fans will be very excited. New fans may discover them and their fanbase will grow as they make more appearance... They'll get more opportunity to work outside of AKB and further develop into strong stars just like the original Kami-7 did. (Maybe with opportunity, they'll all turn into something like Paruru in their own field) With that, it will spur more drama, the competition between the young girls who are now competing in senbatsu term will create more character naturally... And their popularity will keep growing... Maybe by 2020, someone else like me will talk about AKB48's inevitable decline because the 2nd-Gen Kami-7 are graduating.... Maybe... I'm looking at this wrong all along... This opening post and my worries are simply nonsense. Hmmm.... ................ Maybe AKB48 won't decline like Morning Musume like I feared... Somehow I'm more convinced of this than my opening post... Awesome... Now AKB48's future look so freaking bright!!!!!!!! *Also, for the love of god, please hire a better writer and make use of Majisuka 5th season to promote your girls!!!! A well written Majisuka character can make stars out of AKB members...* JUST LOOK AT SEASON 1!!!
I don't agree with everything you've said. How has Mayu carried the group? The only pressure she's felt is probably personal pressure to meet everyone's expectation and rank first in SSK, since people have been saying that she's going to be the next ace for years now. I feel it was something that kept being just out of her reach until she finally won last year. She became the centre of attention and the face of the group for a while, but I feel like it's dying down again. I don't feel there's really a Sasshi vs. Mayu rivalry going on. It was certainly there last year, but now people are already considering other possible candidates for the throne: Yuki, Jurina, Sayaka. Occasionally you'll even hear a few other names which shows that fans are already focusing on the future. Times have changed in AKB and and I feel that Mayu being around for so long and already having been featured in a lot of things might be causing people to lose interest in her, wanting to see what AKB would be like with girl X or Y at the top. At the same time I don't sense a lot of passion and fighting spirit, like Sasshi doubting whether she should participate for example. Same thing with the fans, I don't see much hysteria surrounding these two. It's like most of us are secretly wanting to get an exciting new center. Maybe this will change after the preliminary result are announced if it turns out to be a battle between them after all. I kind of agree with this. I mean, even the newer girls have unique and interesting personalities when you pay attention to them, and there are always exceptions that stand out, but the kind of girls they're mostly recruiting now all seem to have a similar image. I doubt we'll see another Sae, Yuko or Kojiharu (not to mention some of the lesser known early gens) again in the near future. But it's something they're doing knowingly. I know a member (I forgot who it was) once said that now they have a clear image of the kind of girl they're looking for and that she wasn't sure if some of the early gen members would have passed the audition now. Times are changing and so is their image. They have gone from an unknown group targeting salarymen who they hoped would visit the theatre after work sometimes to becoming a national phenomenon whose fans can range from 50 year old men to 5 year old girls. Still, I'm not worried about AKB's future. Despite the changes they still remain true to their core and continue to be the most exciting fandom I've ever been part of. Rather than longing for the past, it's better to celebrate that era as a nice memory and accept the fact that AKB today is different from what it was nearly 10 years ago and that 10 years from now it probably won't be the same it is now. For all the things from the past you're missing or fear losing, there must be at least some things from the present that you're glad to have now or that feel like an improvement. The newer generations are doing great in terms of popularity, they continue to override many of their seniors as has always been the circle of life in this group. Fans are very welcoming to new members even when they're sceptical at first, so I don't see any cause for worry although I'm sure AKB's "dark future" is something fans will be discussing for as many years as this group exists.
AKB's main pillars are falling one by one. First Acchan, then Tomochin, then Mariko, then Yuko, next Takamina(akb's soul), Nyan Nyan is showing signs of graduation, at least a date in her mind, by not participated in Halloween Night senbatsu, and more. So far, it's really a competition between Mayuyu and Sasshi. It's just like Yuko vs Acchan but they have less popularity compared to the 2 "big" aces. Paruru is said to be the next generation ace but I don't the management will push her. Yukirin is out already because she kept her place in the #3 and #2 for years and had never gotten 1st. With Sasshi's fans voting a million time for her, Yukirin is out. Kojimako might be the next ace due to the large amount of push. By the time Sasshi/Mayu graduates, Yukirin must have graduated already as well as the others so the newer gens will move up and kami 7 moving down. Other choices are Naachan, and maybe Miki. Even other members noticed that the 3 musketeers are pushed the most out of the 14th gen. Conclusion, 4 and soon 5 out of 7 members that gave AKB its name graduated. Well others say Jurina might go up after the current "aces" graduate but I doubt she will. Mion could also be a choice but Mako probably won't let her. In this article, despite being the 2nd newest generation, she made it on the list of Next Generation Ace.
I think you're just being overly negative lol I don't see any change in AKB in 2016/7 or really even until 2020. The point of AKB is new girls will come in and be popular among fans as older ones leave. Sure you'll get the ones who only loved acchan and haven't even looked at AKB for 3 years, but those are more outliers than the main fans. For the general public, AKB will just be there, just like they are now. They have been generally disliked for probably 3-4 years now, but still nothing changes. For every top girl now that leaves, someone will take her place. Also we don't know what surprises NGT has (member wise) for at least a year or more, one or more of their members may become kami7 too in the next few years. And the young gen for AKB is the best one I've seen in a while, Naanya, Mako, Miion, Tomu...etc. These members will all get lots of chances to shine once their seniors (mayuyu, yukirin, takamina, kojiharu...) graduate. In conclusion, I see no change whatsoever in AKB between now and the next few years, except at some point the inevitable million streak ending. And even when it ends, I see no change to the status quo whatsoever. AKB will be what is has been until now for quite a while, like it or not.
I think the third-generation rival headliner will probably be a 4-way one between Paru, Juri, Sayanee (if she doesn't move on to bigger and better things too soon) and Sakura. They seem reasonably even right now, but it might be a Battle Royale to dethrone Jurina. After all, she seems to be next in line for Number 1.
I think that by next year, Mako or even Naachan is gonna join into the battle. Paru....I don't know about her nor if Sayanee will be the 3rd generation rivals. I mean.....eh. no. The future for akb does look negative. Members are leaving one by one and I think the "new aces" are too young in being able to be responsible for the whole group. AKB might be gaining fans over the course of the year but they might also lose some "kami-oshi" fans. I get that Aki-P is heavily pushing the newer aces but too much. Too much to the point that their seniors are getting pushed backwards. Ume-chan, Myao and more either got unranked or a very low rank.
Acchan is the common one...? People have used this saying for a long time to make her special as the center but in the end i feel like it's an insult for Acchan Lol. She's pretty, she can sing live, her dancing is charming, her presence on stage is lovely as well (despite the fact that she looks bored sometimes due to her hectic schedule). If we compare her performance with senbatsu these days, i cannot say she's worse than them. I am sick of people keep using that line "not the best at dancing, not the best at singing as well, BUT blah blah..." In fact, she can sing and dance better than some of the Kami 7 back then. It's just people didnt want to admit it. Im so out of topic, im sorry. Ill be back to say more, but my overall opinion is that AKB's future wont be miserable, just not as bright as they were lol
I think AKB48 must be doing something right this year if they've pulled me in as a newbie fan! But seriously, from the viewpoint of someone who only discovered the group back in March/April this year, one reason I became a fan is because I liked Mayuyu, Sasshi, Yukirin, Takamina, Yui, Kojiharu and Sae, i.e. all long-standing members in their 20s. (plus Jurina who for a while I thought was in her 20s, she does have a very mature head on her young shoulders.) I do like many of the next generation in 48G, my favourites include Sakura, Haruppi, Renacchi, Marika and Nao, but as yet none of them apart from Sakura really stand out for me. I'm now familiar with all 41 (+2) singles and I have to say I feel that many of the earlier songs such as River, Heavy Rotation and Beginner have a certain freshness and a sense of cutting edge which more recent songs don't have. Having said that though I do find myself regularly humming BwT and HN and there's no doubt that recent singles appeal to a wide audience, and if that can be maintained then I see no problem in AKB staying popular. I think that predictions here of graduations are too negative and I believe we'll enjoy at least another 2 or 3 years of Mayuyu and Sasshi performing in the group, maybe also Yukirin if she can maintain a top 3 placing in next year's SSK. So I think AKB48 will maintain popularity for many years to come and I believe that in the next year or so a number of girls in the 17-19 age group will start to shine brightly and be ready to replace the 'old guard'. However... having said that, I still hope and wish that one day soon Aki-P will come up with a new very different and cutting edge song which will sell over 2 million copies and will propel some new faces into the top 16 at SSK.
People have been saying the exact same thing since acchan left. But now we have mayuyu, yukirin, and sasshi. I don't know yukirin's age, but whose to say that sasshi won't stay for 3-4 years more? Or mayuyu for that matter? Even if they leave, there are more members that will replace them as fan favorites, as has always been the case. Like I said, for AKB the sky has been falling for the last 3.5 years according to some.
The issue is not the age of the aces tbh. The issue is whether those aces do meet the bill to become such as both leaders and centers. Which is not that bad when you consider that by the time the current pillars leave, there will be someone who is already Senbatsu level and ready to take up the front line like a boss. It's not a change that happens overnight. We have seen it happen gradually over the years ever since Acchan left.
