Yes, perhaps this is one of those questions nobody wants to think about. But let's face it, sooner or later AKB48 (as we know it now) will break up and disappear...or perhaps not, perhaps it will last forever...or perhaps it will change into another thing. What do you think about this?
What a question! I think that AKB48 will die in 10-20 years. I'm basing this opinion on the fact that Morning Musume is still around almost 15 years since their debut, despite having low sales. AKB48 is just too big to go away in 5 years. I think that it'll patter out in the next few years and then just cater to the wota (like MM has been doing). Then again, Aki-P could surprise us and rip the group apart and change it into something else! AKB24, anyone?
AKB48 can definitely stick around for decades based on their business model. As long as Aki-P keeps churning out new groups with catchy songs like how Johnnys do it, there will always be a rabid fanbase. What I think will happen is that within the next 3 years, they will become irrelevant due to idol oversaturation. Their operations won't scale back, because the business model will allow them to continue. They just won't be in the limelight any longer.
I don't really know when it will die, but it will definitely take a big hit in popularity and sales when Akimoto Yasushi decides to retire. He is the only real constant "member" of the group, and it completely depends on him currently since he is the main producer and writes all the lyrics to the songs. As long as Akimoto Yasushi sticks around for a while, and they can keep finding talented people to fill the spots of graduated members, which I don't think will be a problem in a country with ~128 million people, they can go on for an extremely long time.
To tell the truth it’s indeed a difficult question, because AKB48 isn’t just another jpop group, it’s far more than that. Of course they broke all the records and have achieved an unprecedented success. But there is more than that. [nod] For example, AKB48 is now a reason why thousands of people ‘make a pilgrimage’ to Akihabara (some even come from the other side of the world just to see their oshis), that is, it has become a tourist interest, like the Fuji mountain, the Motegi races or the Tokyo tower, and this is something the Japanese know (and I mean both internal and external tourism). And the group has also become a recurrent presence on tv, on advertising, and even on social affairs like the Red Cross collaboration. So AKB48 should remain in existence (of course, they can be replaced by another group but, once you found it, why should you keep on searching?). It may sound a funny, but perhaps AKB48 has already become something like a tradition, and people wants traditions to last forever. Why can’t AKB48 last a hundred years more? Each day new people are being born, new people become adults and new people become AKB48 fans. Yes, the danger is that someday people get fed up with jpop or idols, but that day doesn’t seem to be near…Perhaps it’s just because I’m older than most of the people here, but I’ve seen many groups I loved break up, so I’ve learnt that few things last forever. I love AKB48 and I’ll be very sad if they never disappeared, so let me be a bit naive and believe this dream will never end. [notme]
I think the mainstream popularity will die next year, but the group will continue until around its 10th anniversary, by which point Aki-P will be bored and go do something else. But eh, I'll keep enjoying it until I stop liking the music. *shrug*
I also really think that people forget that Aki-P will die at some point to which we can question if the next general producer will be capable enough.
I think they won't really die anytime soon. But probably when the more popular members were to graduate one by one, slowly the group will perhaps lose their popularity. At that point of time, give them 2 to 3 years and they'll slowly fade away. [think]
Well, you know, Walt Disney died but his empire (the parks, the film studio...) is still successful and winning a lot of money. I mean, even if Aki-P left 'the project' it shouldn't mean that AKB48 disappeared, both because he's not the only owner of AKB48 and because it's something too big and successful to throw it away without a second thought. I guess that, even in the worst scenario (no AKB48 at all) the theater will still keep on performing their stages for all the fans (with the current members or with others)
I really hope they don't die because AKB48 is just amazing. Their music always helps. If Akimoto were to die I really hope the next in line is capable of continuing his awesome work also if Aki-P did die I hope AKB doesn't die along with him. Even though they do disappear I will still diligently follow my oshi But AKB is such a strong force in the entertainment world that I don't think they will go anytime soon
AKB48 will never die, they are always in my heart. Forever and ever... hmm.. except I am not longer in this world...
I'm with Mr Waffle here, when River came out I gave them 2 years at the top. They are there now and I think they'll stay there for at least another year. Then it depends, MM was kept alive for more then 10 years and DMM is now 'back' also. It will all depend on the fans if they keep interested enough. They still have to perform in Tokyo Dome...
The 48 universe is spreading all around the world. with these younger members getting alot of screen time 10-15 years at least....Morning will never die inside me and so won't AKB48
Everything changes. The only constant is change (but even that will change in time, thus even this is not constant). The AKB48 I know and love is constantly changing into another AKB48 that I love. AKB48 is love. AKB48 will change and grow and then AKB48 and the 48 family of love will rule the world. All that love AKB48 know that the 48 family will usher humanity into transcendence. The blessings of Mayuyu be upon us all.
The group won't actually "die" but their popularity will. Just like Momosu's. Even though I voted for 4 years, I don't want them to die! Their right now in their peak but their not always going to be there. Just like when a business is at its peak and goes to recession sooner or later, AKB is kinda also like that, but even though their popularity will die, I think they'll be there for at least couple of years (at least AKB I think, dunno about SKE or others.) Actually the others chances of dying are greater, since AKB is kind of like the sister groups main support/pillar. Hahaha same here! I want to see them live at least once!
AKB48 might loose it's number one status as early as next year(that's a might) but group will be around for many decades to come. Take a look at this Hispanic boy band, Menudo, that Parallels AKB48 in many ways. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menudo_(band) These groups been around since 1970 and still making DVDs!
