Hopes, Fears and Predictions for 2014

That sounds like a highly competitive environment! And I'm not sure if AKS would be willing to lose so much control over the group. It'll be really interesting to see the changes in senbatsu line up tho!

Hmmmm...

I really hope Nattsun makes it for the summer single! She's Paruru and Kojiharu's under in Team B and she was the centre for Bara no Kajitsu but she barely gets anything else. She would be perfect for a bikini single tbh.

 

Worst fear just came true!
Yuko's graduating ...

 

With Yuko's graduation announcement, as many of us predicted, I can't help but think of the next sousenkyo. I predicted Yuko would not participate, regardless of when she actually leaves. But I'm also questioning if Sasshi will participate, simply because there's no way to top the magic of last year's total surprise win and she may want to keep that memory alive rather than dull it through repetition.

With Yuko out and if Sasshi doesn't participate, I guess Mayuyu can finally rank 1st. I'm curious though if her fans would be upset by this kind of default win, or just be happy that she finally achieved her goal?

 

Spot on for me. Just not the same win.

PREDICTIONS AND FEARS

Wow. Scary how the Senbatsu has almost changed completely since 2010. Especially since Yuko's... You all know.

You've got your AKB 5th Documentary story now.

We still have Mayuyu, Takamina, Mii-chan, Kojiharu, Yuki, Jurina, etc. but Yuko was something else. She branched out towards more than AKB-fans and is like a part of the foundation.

I am so scared of things turning out like (don't mean to offend anyone) Morning Musume. ESPECIALLY with the Tokyo Olympics 6 years away. It is all the likely though. I remember Aki-P said that AKB would be destroyed of Yuko left with Acchan, so what now. The whole 2nd era stuff was bull. This is the real stuff so my number 1 prediction is that will use Yuko's graduation as huge promotion, big concert, album with 2-shots, BIG sales for the last single (which will probably be as good as Manatsu no SG) and after that, Aki-P is going to make some big reforms to the structure of AKB.

Big wave of graduations after AKB gets past that point (Late 2014-2015). Kojiharu is probably leaning toward the edge and Takamina has so little to hold on. Majority of these graduations will come from the lower level girls (in popularity) who are probably the most unsure. The new gen is really strong but still at risk so that is the most worrying for me.

I can see this going on till December and that's when it will quiet down and we will all know what's actually going down.

Yes. That does mean realistically, it is possible/likely the million streak will break.

Also, Aki-P isn't Tsunku and if he gets bored enough I could really see him dropping AKB completely. I'm probably just being paranoid though...

Probably....

HOPES:

Kind of a bad time for coming up with these, but if management pulls this year off well, they can re-cement AKB as a staple of Japanese culture and send Yuko off in a way that's best for the group and is good promotion and bring the young gen up. I really hope the new gen is treated right, because I believe they are key to the group's future.

 

I wouldn't be so sure.

Even though she might not care about the rankings anymore, she might just do it for the fun. And she might win.
Same for Sasshi. She might win too if she participates, but she might use that victory to dedicate it to HKT or something.

So... I think I'll just wait to see who goes in before trying to predict anything (even if the thread is about that lol).

As for Yuko leaving and it leaving AKB in the pit... well, she brings in good money. She's the first to sell out her slots in the HS events... which could be around 20k copies less of a single once she leaves. It's not much, but... it's something.
I think the new gen is doing just fine. Jurina will be around for ages and Ricchan is getting more and more recogniton as time passes. Hell, she's in every senbatsu right now. I wouldn't be surprised if she jumped to senbatsu in the election.
And the three musketeers are getting the biggest push ever, so by the time other major assests leave, they'll have a fandom ready to focus on them.

As I said before, let's wait and see...

 

Okay, time for a revision with Yuko leaving now.

Sasshi probably will participate nevertheless because there wouldn't be any HKT representatives in senbatsu unless Sakura somehow makes a big jump.

Now I'm worried that management would either push Sasshi back to AKB in favour of retaining whatever star power they have left, and give some crappy reasoning that Sakura and Haruppi's popularity along with MeruMio are enough to sustain the group.

Yuko- I think she will stay around for at least the two-shots at the mid-2014 area, and probably will go out in the same vein as Acchan - last single is the summer one, with grad song being in the b-side of the election single.

Mayu - she has a clear shot now because if Yuko doesn't participate, votes might be channelled to her by past Yuko-oshis. I don't know, just speculating. But the 50k gap they had in the past election with Sasshi and Mayu, I don't know whether their combined power can topple Sasshi.

Spoiler

Still want Sasshi to win though. Let ori-team B's top 2 be the 2nd and 3rd behind Sasshi for the next one! *gets shot*

 

I mean to be honest now, with management's push, its really been like this for quite some time:

Dowager Empress: Yuuko (now graduating, she's definitely going to get center for the next couple of singles)

Big trio: Yukirin, Mayuyu, Sasshi all out war

Front line: Rena, Jurina, Takamina, Yuihan, Ricchan, Sayanee, Mirukiii

"New" gens (although now they're like front liners?): All out war for the final spots by Kawaei, Annin, Muto, Kato Rena, etc., etc. (you get the drift)

I feel like the only reason why Yuuko is graduating now is party because there's a huge group of people to carry AKB singles. The last one only had Jurina and Ricchan in senbatsu – and it still sold over 1m, without any zenkou handshake tickets either. I would probably guess that this 1mm will continue, if only because we can count on all the singles having more than one freaking senbatsu member in its actual senbatsu [wonder] (Goddamit aki-p, you're a great businessman, but I hate you as a person for what you're doing to my Jurina!)

 

The only fans of Yuko I could see putting their votes towards Mayu would be total Sasshi antis. Other than that, I think Yuko oshis would send their votes...I don't know, to the new Team K captain to show their support? To Kojiharu, their oshimen's oshimen?

If Sasshi does run again, I think Mayu's going to have to have one hell of a year to overtake her.

I'd be shocked if Yuko entered this year, shocked. It could happen, but I just have a feeling it won't. Putting yourself through the stress of the sousenkyo while your graduation is pending just seems to be so awkward. Tomochin seemed rather frustrated last year that she only ran one last time because her fans begged her to, and then they still let her drop 3. Not a good way to go out.

It doesn't matter who she dedicates the win to, the fact remains that if she runs again, she has a pretty good shot at 1st.

In any case, the number of members widely known to the general public is shrinking so quickly! With Yuko and Kojiharu both heading out in 2014, that only really leaves Takamina and Mayu as the public 'face' of AKB (well, and Sasshi of course, because it's not like the mainstream public knows what HKT is so I'm sure they still see her as AKB) and neither of them have quite the notoriety the others did. That may not have much impact on sales, but it certainly might on their entertainment presence.

 

Like there is any question about that

 

They need another fast & strong push like Paruru, her public acknowledgement seems to be rising fast. Maybe they will make someone from Team 4 like Kojimako center a single in 2014.

Sasshi already said she aims to get #1 again, I'm keeping that in my "hopes" list

 

i believe 2014 will be the year akb will take some hard bumps. All the greats like Itano, Shinoda, Akimoto and now Oshima are gone or going. I think the sales will take a slight slump down and the songs will lose their charm. I mean there are some good ones left like Mayu ,Yuki, and Takamina and who knows Kojima, in the worst case she might leave late in the year. In short, i think 2014 is the year were akb is going to lose momentum and start to fall ( the beginning of the end if you will )

 

yeah that's what guys like you want to see happen, but it won't.

Unfortunately for you, AKB is more that the 1st, 2nd and 3rd generation and you guys will either come to accept it or stop pestering the people who enjoy the current AKB.

 

maybe thats what people want to see.I mean its been going on for so long and so many changes and junk have happened, maybe its time for them to step back. I would want to see SKE and NMB grow more and be considered top performers [think]

 

It's a bit of both, honestly. It's not a secret that Yuuko is the big seller in AKB. She was the only person who could go toe to toe with Acchan at her most popular in the elections. All you have to do is look at her position in this year's election (just under Sasshi, but still above Mayu who had a HUGE amount of fan support this year) and what happened when she dropped out of a Team K performance recently (most of the ticketholding audience ended up not showing up) to see that Yuuko holds a LOT of sway in the group. Not enough to ruin the group with her departure, of course, but aspects of it could take a hit.

It will be interesting to see what effect Yuuko's graduation has on the group. I personally am looking forward to seeing what will change around the fact that she's gone.

 

Agree, Just because Yuko is graduating doesn't mean the beginning of the end of AKB. She knows AKB will be in good hands with the newbies. Just like Tomochin, Mariko, Acchan, Sayaka thought as well. Why people wanna see AKB fall is beyond me?

AKB48 is FINE! Their downfall ISN'T happening. DEAL WITH IT!

I don't want to see that. These days were going to be here eventually and management knew that. Why they pushed some of the newbies, Morning Musume did the same thing when their originals were graduating and AKB48 is doing it now.

Same, I know it will feel alot different without her around, Especially with Team K. I'm looking forward to see how the brand new Team K will respond to it.

My Thoughts:
With Yuko graduating, Team K will start it's 2nd chapter you can say. I think management needs to decide whether or not Jurina stays in SKE or joins AKB48 full time as Team K's new ace. Cause you can't have her in both groups. I can't wait to see how Shimada handles being the Team K captain (I figure she will become the new Team K Captain) I'm guessing some of the Team 4 members will be moved Team K and we get some new Team 4 members (I hope, Cause I don't want to see Team 4 disbanding...again)

 

With Yuki so open about not wanting to be center I can't see her winning the election - I feel like her fans will turn out for her, but any extra / casual votes are going to go towards someone who is vocal about wanting it.

Not sure how Sasshi's fans will act this year but it's looking quite good for Mayu to me right now.

 

Well, thinking about it, I could see her stepping down, yeah. Just like Acchan did, making way for the rest.
Still, must be a bittersweet feeling to not go out as 1st when you have a good shot at it (I'm sure Yuko fans would go all out for it).

Oh, well.

 

That's true, but at the same time, someone not wanting to do something has never stopped management [wonder]

Though I'm really hoping that Mayuyu turns into a strong rival for Sasshi. Tbh, rivalries make genius happen, so if they end up being super rivals that would be uber fun to watch

 

My view of 2014 is that there might be many changes throughout AKB. Obviously there's Yuko's graduation from the group as one of these events occuring that year but there might be more in store for all the 48-girl groups.

Hopes
-14th to 15th generation members get a huge push from management
-Members such as Hirata Rina and Tomu Muto being selected for single senbatsu
-HKT48 continues to rise in popularity
-AKB48 continuing to keep their million copies streak
-Sasshi, Mayuyu or even Yukirin becoming the 2014 Sousenkyo center if Yuko decides not to participate
-Draft members get a push from management

Fears
-Scandals affecting popular members of the 48-girl groups
-AKB breaks their million sales streak
-Another mass graduation in SKE48
-Team disbandments/shuffles
-Yukirin/Takamina graduating
-Team K having no captain after Yuko graduates
-New stages continuing to be delayed

Predictions
-Yuko graduates from the group with a spectacular performance at the same level as Acchan's
-Kojiharu graduates from AKB
-Possible mass graduation in any of the 48-girl groups
-AKB48 sales might slide but still remain past the 1 million mark
-Sasshi, Yukirin, or Mayuyu becoming Sousenkyo center
-Another subunit announced
-Another shuffle without disbanding any teams
-More concurrent positions created and removed

 

Sasshi does not "feel" like a rival to Mayu to me (I know - despite the numbers). I get the impression tht Mayu wota will want revenge in 2014.