Seasonal Sakamichi Polls: Popularity Tournament - the Sakamichi Cup now running

Discussion in 'General Nogizaka46 Discussion' started by kanjo, Mar 26, 2016.

  1. Generic_User

    Generic_User Under Girls Stage48 Donor

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    Here's a question I would like to see in your (@kanjo) next poll. It's inspired by your post about the differences in 2nd gen and 3rd gen handling.

    I'm wondering as to how many Nogi fans experienced the 2nd gen rollout. It leads me to think about how many of us were around. Then it leads me to how long have we've been a fan. Rather than asking for number of years, it would be interesting to ask from which single have you been a follower of Nogizaka46.

    I'm not sure that you haven't asked this question before...
     
  2. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    No, I don't think I have. I asked about fans before but that's probably a new one.
     
  3. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    I'll stop taking answers on Sunday. After keyakake.
     
  4. megawotaku

    megawotaku Kenkyuusei

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    Suggestion: In the "Who's your kamioshi/oshi" question, maybe put Hako Oshi as an option as well? Because I definitely agonize over that question every time www
     
  5. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    It's a common request so I plan to address it in a few ways next time.
     
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  6. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    This poll will close soon. Final call for responses!

    Edit: closed
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2017
  7. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    Winter 2016/17 poll Analysis (part 1)
    I wasn't planning on releasing these as the first part of the analysis but since Nogizaka are announcing their new senbatsu this week I rushed it ahead of the other pieces.
    They're all the parts that pertain to future senbatsu, including building Senbatsu, Centre hopefuls, and Predictions for 2017. These will receive some changes as the rest of the analysis is completed and published.

    Next Senbatsu
    Respondents were asked to make their own senbatsu. They were asked which members should stay and which should be added. With the option to choose none for each of the senbatsu members, unders/hiragana and, in Nogizaka’s case, new members. Asking “which senbatsu members should stay” is more difficult and time consuming for respondents (sorry for that) but it helps keep the scores consistent with the other questions and keeps the polls positive rather than negative.

    Senbatsu were formed 3 ways. The first is a pure popularity contest, the second and third take into account how much rotation the respondents asked for by analysing how many “unders” the average respondent choose to add, etc.

    1st: the n number of members who received the most votes. Where n is the senbatsu size of the previous single (19 for Nogi or 21 for Keyaki).
    2nd: for each group (senbatsu, unders, new members) find the average number of members chosen n1 n2 and n3. Add the highest scoring n1 of senbatsu members, and so-on. Answers of “none” are kept, adding zeroes to the total, reducing the averages for each group.
    3rd: the same as the 2nd method, but removing “none”s to decrease the totals and increase the averages, just to see the results.

    win17 n simple.png
    Nogizaka 17th – simple senbatsu
    1. Ikuta Erika (228)
    2. Nishino Nanase (225)
    3. Shiraishi Mai (219)
    4. Saito Asuka (205)
    5. Sakurai Reika (203)
    6. Eto Misa (196)
    7. Wakatsuki Yumi (194)
    8. Hori Miona (190)
    9. Takayama Kazumi (189)
    10. Ikoma Rina (172)
    11. Akimoto Manatsu (168)
    12. Terada Ranze (167)
    13. Nakamoto Himeka (154)
    14. Matsumura Sayuri (154)
    15. Hoshino Minami (152)
    16. Inoue Sayuri (129)
    17. Ito Marika (113)
    18. Kitano Hinako (113)
    19. Watanabe Miria (94)

    There’s not much change here. Shinuchi Mai is the only drop, excluding Hashimoto Nanami, and Terada Ranze and Watanabe Miria are added in their place. This method does not take into account how many members were hoped for in the new senbatsu, and it is unlikely the actual 17th senbatsu will have 19 members.

    win17 n complex.png win17 n complex no nones.png
    Nogizaka 17th – complex senbatsu
    1. Ikuta Erika (228)
    2. Nishino Nanase (225)
    3. Shiraishi Mai (219)
    4. Saito Asuka (205)
    5. Sakurai Reika (203)
    6. Eto Misa (196)
    7. Wakatsuki Yumi (194)
    8. Hori Miona (190)
    9. Takayama Kazumi (189)
    10. Ikoma Rina (172)
    11. Akimoto Manatsu (168)
    12. Terada Ranze (167)
    13. Nakamoto Himeka (154)
    14. Watanabe Miria (94)
    15. Higuchi Hina (81)
    16. Kawamura Mahiro (68)
    17. Yamashita Mizuki (63)

    The responses had an average of 12 members kept from senbatsu, 4 from unders and one the 3rd gens, resulting in this senbatsu. If answers of “none” were removed, there would be an average of 2 members from the 3rd generation and Ozono Momoko (61) would take the 18th spot. The other groups would not be notably affected.

    Keyakizaka 4th – simple senbatsu
    1. Hirate Yurina (195)
    2. Imaizumi Yui (193)
    3. Sugai Yuuka (187)
    4. Watanabe Risa (187)
    5. Shida Manaka (184)
    6. Watanabe Rika (183)
    7. Moriya Akane (177)
    8. Nagahama Neru (177)
    9. Kobayashi Yui (175)
    10. Suzumoto Miyu (167)
    11. Koike Minami (165)
    12. Uemura Rina (152)
    13. Nagasawa Nanako (144)
    14. Habu Mizuho (144)
    15. Yonetani Nanami (144)
    16. Satou Shiori (140)
    17. Harada Aoi (128)
    18. Ozeki Rika (121)
    19. Ishimori Nijika (117)
    20. Oda Nana (117)
    21. Saito Fuyuka (112)

    This senbatsu is made of the top 21 members (emulating the senbatsu size of the previous single) and features zero changes. But the respondents did show, including “none” votes, respondents wanted one member from Keyakizaka added, thus:

    Keyakizaka 4th – complex senbatsu
    1. Hirate Yurina (195)
    2. Imaizumi Yui (193)
    3. Sugai Yuuka (187)
    4. Watanabe Risa (187)
    5. Shida Manaka (184)
    6. Watanabe Rika (183)
    7. Moriya Akane (177)
    8. Nagahama Neru (177)
    9. Kobayashi Yui (175)
    10. Suzumoto Miyu (167)
    11. Koike Minami (165)
    12. Uemura Rina (152)
    13. Nagasawa Nanako (144)
    14. Habu Mizuho (144)
    15. Yonetani Nanami (144)
    16. Kakizaki Memi (69)

    This includes the top 15 senbatsu members (the average amount chosen) and the top Hiragana member (by average votes with nones, included, the score was just 5 votes away from rounding up to 2).

    Keyakizaka 4th – Complex senbatsu without nones
    1. Hirate Yurina (195)
    2. Imaizumi Yui (193)
    3. Sugai Yuuka (187)
    4. Watanabe Risa (187)
    5. Shida Manaka (184)
    6. Watanabe Rika (183)
    7. Moriya Akane (177)
    8. Nagahama Neru (177)
    9. Kobayashi Yui (175)
    10. Suzumoto Miyu (167)
    11. Koike Minami (165)
    12. Uemura Rina (152)
    13. Nagasawa Nanako (144)
    14. Habu Mizuho (144)
    15. Yonetani Nanami (144)
    16. Satou Shiori (140)
    17. Kakizaki Memi (69)
    18. Kato Shiho (51)
    19. Saito Kyoko (47)

    “None” votes had a bigger effect on Keyaki’s senbatsu and removing them added one Kanji member and two Hiragana members. While this very undemocratically ignores the wishes of the fans who voted to add no Hiragana members to the next single’s senbatsu, I wanted to do it as a thought exercise, mostly because Keyaki’s senbatsu was so small with them.


    Centre
    According to the votes above, Ikuta Erika and Hirate Yurina are the main centre choices. As they are the most popular members, this should surprise no one. But this question didn’t ask about who should be the centre, and how votes change when that is brought up is a very interesting aspect of the CH question. Generally, the responses do match well with popularity, but they’re far from 1:1.

    Who fans would like to see centre a single in 2017 (so could be 3 or more centres):

    Nogizaka
    Ikuta Erika took first, by far. With 56.6% of fans giving her a vote, that’s enough to justify two solo centres. Shiraishi Mai (3rd) got 33.8%, Hori Miona (3rd) 26.1%, Nishino Nanase (4th) 25.4% and Eto Misa (5th) 23.5%.
    Despite competing for first in the popularity questions, Nishino loses points here likely due to having the 2nd most centre songs in Nogizaka, though her scores have been rising as she hasn’t taken the role for over a year now. Saito Asuka (18.4%, ties for 6th with Sakurai Reika) also has less points than her popularity otherwise suggests, likely due to being the only member remaining in the group for the 17th single onward who centred a single last year.
    Other notable scores include 8th through 10th: Takayama Kazumi, Ikoma Rina and Wakatsuki Yumi. Despite never being in senbatsu Terada Ranze got votes from 11% of respondents, managing 11th place, and all 3rd gens got at least one vote, with 13.8% of respondents giving at least one vote to a 3rd gen. Out of these Yamashita Mizuki’s airdrop has the most support with 5.1%.

    Keyakizaka
    Hirate Yurina is a clear first, but not as clear as her popularity would suggest, with only 42.3% of respondents picking her. 2nd is Imaizumi Yui (34.6%), neck-and-neck with Nagahama Neru (34.1%). The only real competitor with these three is Sugai Yuuka (30.9%). Shida Manaka and Kobayashi Yui tie for 5th with 24.4% followed closely by Moriya Akane with 24%. Even the highest ranking new Hiragana member, Kakizaki Memi (4.5%) doesn’t have much support for an airdrop.
    It’s still difficult to see Keyakizaka being centred by anyone but Hirate, but there is support for passing the baton to other popular members.

    Predictions
    Poll respondents believe we will see a 2017 like this:

    Nogizaka
    Nogizaka singles will be centred by Ikuta Erika (62.1%), Nishino Nanase (56.1%) and Shiraishi Mai (54.4%). Possibly also Saito Asuka (28.3%) and Hori Miona (21.6%).
    Nogizaka will reach 1,035,000 in Oricon sales (using mathematical weighting. With just the median answer it is between 950k and 1m).
    Yamashita Mizuki (42.2%) Ozono Momoko (41%) and Yoda Yuki (32.3%) will be promoted. Kubo Shiori (23.15%) and Ito Riria (19.1%) also have good chances but they rank after “none” (30.3%).
    2 (2.4) members will graduate, most likely to be Shiraishi Mai (42.2%), Eto Misa (30.6%) and Shinuchi Mai (24.8%). Following 'none' (16.3%) include Kawamura Mahiro (13.2%), Matsumura Sayuri (11.6%) and Nojo Ami (10.9%).

    The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Nogizaka:

    1.11 maintain/improve music quality
    0.4 member has solo single/album debut
    0.67 mainstream hit
    1 a new centre
    0.33 a new drama
    0.17 a new variety show
    0.93 a new contracted model
    1.1 a new member gets a first photobook (other than Saito Asuka)
    0.47 a new album
    0.86 another 46-hours TV
    0.44 a scandal free year
    0.88 a Tokyo Dome performance
    1.43 a return to Kouhaku
    -0.03 a 3rd gen centre airdrop
    -1.25 4th gen auditions

    Keyakizaka
    Hirate Yurina will centre again (72.7%). Imaizumi Yui (42.3%) and Nagahama Neru (42%) may centre but it’s unlikely for anyone else, except maybe Sugai Yuuka (24.5%).
    Keyakizaka will reach 620,000 in Oricon sales (median: 550-600k)
    Kakizaki Memi (47.8%) will be promoted this year (in some way). Kato Shiho (32.3%), Saito Kyoko (25.4%) are also seen as likely to be pushed but failed to outscore ‘none’ (32.8%).
    0 (0.42) members will graduate this year but if any do, it would be Sato Shiori (7.2%) or Ishimori Nijika (5.3%). No others received notable scores.

    The following are very unlikely (-2 to -1) unlikely (-1 to 0) likely (0 to 1) or very likely (1 to 2) for Keyakizaka:

    1.28 maintain/improve music quality
    -0.02 member has solo single/album debut
    0.86 another mainstream hit
    0.62 a new centre
    0.57 a new drama
    0.58 a new variety show
    0.81 first contracted model
    0.72 first photobook (group or solo)
    0.08 first album
    0.51 a scandal free year
    0.87 a tour
    0.98 a return to Kouhaku
    -0.4 a Hiragana centre other than Neru
    -0.98 new auditions

    Comments
    I personally think we're underestimating both groups' sales records but I'm not certain.
    Scores were very low for promoting Hiraganas but that can't really be blamed as we don't know what promoting them means, yet.
    I'm not expecting graduations from Keyaki but by the end of their second year 4 Nogizaka members graduated (Iwase Yumiko, Ando Mikumo, Kashiwa Yukina and Miyazawa Seira)
    so I'm not all that hopeful we'll get through a second year without even one.

    Regarding the predictions given a numerical value:

    Keyaki has more hopes for a new drama and variety show. By a big margin.
    I can see drama, as TokuDare was far better than Bemars (though more time has passed since Bemars). I'm not so certain about variety shows though.

    Nogizaka has more confidence for new photobooks than Keyaki for any (including a group one). I can understand why, as Nogizaka has been pumping out PB like clockwork recently. However, I am expecting a Keyakizaka photobook this year. Nogi had one in their second year. And their average age was 18.5. Keyaki's will be 19.5 if they follow the same time scale (next October).

    Neither is hopeful about a new album. I guess that's because Toumei na Iro (Nogi's first) took so long to release. However, if they use the same schedule as Sorezore no Isu, we could get a new Nogi album 4 singles (summer) or 72 weeks (October) after their 2nd album. And there's no reason to believe Keyaki will stick to Nogi's album release schedule.
    That said, I'm not ready to put money on either. (Maybe a little on Nogi)

    Finally, the scandal-free year predictions were so low! Where is your faith in your idols?! :p

    Part 2:

    http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?...nalysis-coming-soon.14672/page-6#post-1314172
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
    • Like Like x 1
  8. aisukurimu99

    aisukurimu99 Kenkyuusei

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    Thanks! Your polls are always an interesting read, @kanjo. :approve:

    Not really surprised that it's Yamashita > Ozono (even though it's a small lead). When I watched the Inochi performance in the latest 48/46 Show, I feel that Yamashita has a greater commanding presence on stage than Ozono.

    I'm also surprised yet not really surprised that Ikuchan continues to dominate these polls. :^^;: I would've thought that, with Nandome happening more than 2 years ago, most fans would have given up all hope of her getting another center position (except us Ikuchan oshis, perhaps). Anyway, here's to keeping that hope alive.

    Oh, and faith in idols we have. It's the tabloids that we don't trust. :lol:
     
  9. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    Winter 16/17 survey analysis, continued.

    Background

    This survey was the 5th in a series of polls investigating the popularity of Sakamichi series members, with other topics featured as bonuses. This series of surveys now spans roughly 15 months and shows how the general (mostly international) community’s opinion on members of the group, among other topics, changed during this period. This period is significant for Keyakizaka as it covers almost their entire career, starting only 2 months after their TV debut.

    The poll was open for submissions from 16.12.17 to 17.01.08. The following major events took place between the closing of the last survey and of this one: senbatsu announcement and release of Nogizaka’s 16th and Keyakizaka’s 3rd singles, the first broadcasting of a Nogizaka46 Under Live, Hiragana Keyakizaka’s Omotenashikai, Keyakizaka46’s first solo concert, and Nogizaka’s second and Keyakizaka’s first Kouhaku appearances. It’s also the first survey to include Nogizaka’s 3rd generation members in the main section. However, it is still in their early days and fans, especially international fans, haven’t yet had many opportunities to get to know these members.

    On top of questions about popularity, this survey also asked respondents to choose the senbatsu members of the next set of singles, their favourite songs and CDs from 2016, predictions for the coming year, their opinions on the two 46 groups and their interaction, as well as of their relationship with the 48 groups and that interaction. Finally, the survey also asked for respondents’ opinions on other idols, 48G and more.

    With a total of 274 responses this was the highest response count of any poll in the series since I chose to have Google (try to) force one vote per user. Still, there were some obvious fraudulent votes and the vote total has been reduced to 271. There were a few more suspicious votes but I didn’t remove them because I wasn’t 100% sure. For now, I allowed the cheaters to have their first vote counted but I won’t next time, and I’m working on an excel macro which will help me identify suspicious votes (I’ve noticed more than a few patterns). I’ll also shame your oshimen, so please don’t do it, it’s sad.

    Analysis

    To break up the analysis and make it easier to read (and write), I’ll be releasing it in four parts. I have already released the analysis of questions which relate to predictions and hopes for 2017. The next release will cover popularity of Nogizaka members (excluding the 3rd gen, for now), which will be followed by that of Keyakizaka’s members. The final release will cover the following topics: 2016 music, inter- and intra-group collaborations, and Nogizaka’s 3rd generation. I’m also planning another bonus release for the end of 2017 to confirm which predictions were (most) accurate. I’ll also be scoring responses to see which got the most right.


    Terminology

    Poll titles
    This poll will be called Win16 for short. Previous polls will follow the same format: Win15, Spr16, Sum16 and Aut16.

    Questions
    All Favourites (AF): Choose all favourite members. Participants can select as many members as they like.
    Oshimen (OM): Choose number one favourite member (oshimen). Participants can only select one member.
    Centre Hopefuls (CH): Choose all members you would like to see take the centre position in the new year’s (assume 3) singles.

    Points will always be discussed in percentage of total responses (% of people who answered that question) or in the case of “overall winners”, the sum of the percentages of AF and OM.

    image001.png image003.png image005.png image007.png image009.png

    Nogizaka46 popularity

    The analysis of Nogizaka’s popularity will ignore the 3rd gens outside their own section as they cannot be compared with previous polls.

    All Favourites and Oshimen

    Overall winners – the goddess tier

    As expected, Ikuta Erika and Nishino Nanase topped the polls for the 5th time in a row, once again increasing the gap between them and the other members. Ikuta lost some points and Nishino gained many this season, meaning the gap between 1st and 2nd place has once again closed somewhat. That said, Ikuta remains ahead by a large margin (85.3 versus 71.7)

    Shiraishi Mai and Saito Asuka moved up one each (to 3rd and 4th), knocking Hori Miona down to 5th. Asuka managed to gain the most points this season, notably nearly doubling her OM and overall gaining double the score she lost between Sum16 to Aut16. Despite falling two places, Hori’s points fall was minimal and she remains firmly in the tier as there is a large gap between the gods and demigods this round.

    Demigoddesses and other notable rank changes

    Hashimoto Nanami (up 1 to 6th), Takayama Kazumi (up 1 to 7th), Wakatsuki Yumi (up 1 to 8th) and Sakurai Reika (down 3 to 9th) form the demi-goddess tier. Takayama and Wakatsuki are the big climbers this round, especially in AF with moderate increases in OM. A similar moderate increase in OM couldn’t offset Sakurai’s drop in AF and she risks dropping from the demi-goddess tier altogether.

    Other notable rises include Ikoma Rina who rose 6.4 points, now ranking 11th overall (was 14th last round). She has also returned to 4th in OM, taking back a large chunk of the points she lost last round. Nakamoto Himeka’s heat in summer appears to have cooled down and she returns to her moderate spring popularity, now sitting at 12th overall.

    This round has seen the less popular members from the 1st gen smack down the emerging second gen members with big rises seen by Inoue and Matsumura Sayuri, Nojo Ami, Nakada Kana and Kawamura Mahiro contrasted with big drops by Kitano Hinako, Watanabe Miria, Yamazaki Rena, Shinuchi Mai and Ito Karin. Major exceptions are the steep drop of Ito Marika and the moderate rise of Sagara Iori.

    Comments

    It was good to see Saito Asuka’s popularity to return to its rising state. She took a hit from what seems to be anti-centrism, fans being averse to a girl getting too much attention suddenly (apparently not applicable to graduating members) but now she’s back and fans seem to have grown used to the idea of the new, little front member. As it stands she’s a contender for 3rd and may become a contender for the top 2 before long…

    The fall in the 2nd gen was unfortunate but not entirely unexpected. The 2nd gen generally did extremely well in the autumn poll and this is more of a snap back than anything. That said Terada Ranze still occupies the enviable position of overall 17th with only a minimal points loss. Suzuki Ayane also suffered a minor points loss but still managed a relative increase, up one to 19th.

    Edit (17/04/25a) continued:

    Keyakizaka46 popularity
    image011.png image013.png image015.png image017.png image030.png

    The primarily discussed value is “overall score”, a combination of the scores of AF and OM (both in percentages). CH scores and ranks are discussed here too, but mostly only as a bonus. As with the last analyses, points in CH no longer count toward overall score.

    Goddess tier
    Hirate Yurina returns to the pinnacle of goddess this round, and this time she takes the spot uncontested. The key to her dominance is returning to clear winner in OM, with (exactly) 50% extra votes over 2nd place Sugai Yuuka. Hirate even managed to take first in CH for the first time, becoming the first Keyaki member to gain 1st in all three categories since Watanabe Rika did in Winter 2015. With the highest CH score so far, despite her centreship not appearing to be in any danger, it seems like Hirate may have won support for “unmoveable centre”.

    Sugai Yuuka made an impressive jump from 6th to 2nd in overall rankings. This rise was spearheaded by nearly double the previous survey’s OM rating, and notable growth in AF as well, she now sits at 2nd in both categories. Sugai also grew considerably in CH this round. While she remains at the same rank, 4th, she is now a much more serious contender for the top 3 and more than worthy of a shot at the position. The final definite goddess is Shida Manaka. While her actual points growth was moderate, she was just able to crack the top 3 for the first time, up from 5th in the last survey. Her slight drop in OM was more than offset by a notable growth in AF. Incidentally, these three are the only members to receive votes from more than 50% of respondents in AF.

    The fall of Nagahama Neru
    Sitting on the periphery between goddesses and demigoddesses is Nagahama Neru. Nagahama managed to scrape 1st place in Autumn’s poll by tying for 1st in AF with Hirate Yurina and 1st in OM with Watanabe Risa. But with a dramatic drop in AF coupled with a minor drop in OM, she lost enough points to fall to 4th place.

    Demigoddesses
    The first two demigoddesses fell, rather than rose, to their positions. Watanabe Risa dropped from 3rd to 5th and Imaizumi Yui from 4th to 6th. Both lost a significant number of points in both categories. Watanabe lost her momentum after an impressive rise last round but for Imaizumi it’s continuing a trend of falling from her former status as contender for 1st in the early polls. Imaizumi, however, did manage to retain 2nd in CH, tied with Nagahama, which means she’s still regarded as a main member, even if support for her has fallen.

    The final clear demi is Moriya Akane. Moriya had the 2nd highest points rise this survey (after Hirate) and managed to jump from 10th to 7th. Her scores in both main categories had respectable increases, but what was truly impressive was her CH score tripling.

    Other contenders for demis include: Watanabe Rika who continued her gradual fall and now sits at 8th overall and Kobayashi Yui rose two places to 9th this round. While not her highest rank it was her highest score. Kobayashi also nearly doubled her CH score, now tying for 5th with Shida Manaka.

    Other notable changes
    The ranks were very turbulent this round. Sato Shiori and Kato Shiho made the biggest jumps. Rising 10 places from 25th to 15th, it could be said Sato gained the most from the front rotation for Futari Saison. On the other hand, fellow front debutantes Harada Aoi and Saito Fuyuka fell the most. In the group. Part of their fall could be attributed to the rise of Hiragana Keyaki, as they fell below Sasaki Mirei, Kato Shiho, Saito Kyoko and, in Fuyuka’s case, Ushio Sarina, but they also fell below fellow Kanji Keyaki members, replacing Ishimori Nijika as the 2nd (24th, Harada) and 1st (26th, Fuyuka) lowest scoring Kanji members this round.

    Hiragana Keyaki
    Interest in Hiragana Keyaki rose slightly with 46% of respondents to the AF question picking a Hiragana member (other than Neru), up from 42% in Autumn and 19% in Summer. They also now account for 16% of the group’s overall score, up from 13% in Autumn and 8% in Summer.

    Excluding Neru, Kakizaki Memi remains on top of the Hiragana members with a moderate lead. Sasaki Mirei jumped to 2nd, now tying with Kato Shiho. Takase Mana replaced Iguchi Mao as the lowest scoring member of the group. As for CH, only Kakizaki managed a notable score, with support of 4.5% of respondents. In 2nd place was Iguchi Mao with 2.5%. No, really.

    Comments
    It’s a little concerning to see both Neru’s fall and the slow pace of New-Hiragana’s rise. I wonder if the period between the previous poll and now has had enough promotion to steer Hiragana toward a becoming more recognised within the group.

    Any effect on the popularity (at least with us international fans) due to swapping members into the front row is unclear. Two of the most drastic rises were in the front row (Moriya Akane and Sato Shiori) but the same goes for two of the most drastic falls (Saito Fuyuka and Harada Aoi). Koike Minami had a bad fall and Suzumoto Miyu had a good rise. The next survey should be enlightening but also it would be interesting to look at the effect of leaving the front row.

    Edit (17/04/25b) continued:

    Nogizaka’s 3rd gen members
    image021.png image023.png

    Yamashita Mizuki, often called the “ace” of the 3rd gen members took first place among the group, tying with Ito Marika for 21st in AF, and taking 19th in CH. Ozono Momoko and Yoda Yuki also took good scores in these categories to reach 2nd and 3rd among the 3rd gens. Yoda got two OM votes, with all others only getting one or two. Kubo Shiori, who was 1st for interest in Aut16 fell to 4th this round. Iwamoto Renka and Nakamura Reno also lost a large amount of their points this round. Apart from the top three (particularly Yamashita and Yoda), Ito Riria was the only member to make a big jump this round. I’m looking forward to seeing the reactions after their TV debut.

    Miscellaneous

    Groups

    I asked which groups the fans support. On a scale of 1 to 7 where 1 is Nogizaka purist and 7 is Keyakizaka purist (4 is even), the average response was 3.81 meaning near even but slightly leaning toward Nogizaka. This is a huge jump from 2.73 in Sum16 (the last time I asked this question). As for Oshimen choice, however, it’s a little more one sided toward Nogizaka with 47% choosing their Nogizaka oshimen, 24% Keyaki, with 29% not being able to decide.

    As for responses, Nogizaka remains ahead with an average of 9.1 AF choices per respondent. Keyakizaka is only slightly behind with 8.4. The gap is slightly larger for CH with an average 3.6 potential centres for Nogizaka and 3.1 for Keyakizaka. Keyakizaka responses showed more interest in new members, though, with 115 respondents to AF choosing a Hiragana member (other than Neru) compared to 87 who chose a Nogizaka 3rd gen member.

    Interaction
    I asked respondents to express their interest in various forms of potential interaction between the two groups. I then gave these answers numerical values where 1=support and 4=opposition (middle=2.5). The average response for each question was as follows:

    Keyakizaka in Nogizaka CDs – 2.98 (moderate opposition)
    Kennin (concurrent position) between Nogizaka/Keyakizaka – 3.36 (fierce opposition)
    Subgroup with members from both groups – 2.57 (bare opposition)
    Music show collaboration – 1.57 (very strong support)
    Variety show collaboration – 1.71 (strong support)
    Drama collaboration – 1.89 (quite strong support)
    Group concerts – 1.9 (quite strong support)
    A Sakamichi senbatsu election – 3.25 (strong opposition)

    Kennin appears to be the most opposed type of collaboration. Following the 48 group’s strategies it would likely mean guaranteed spots in senbatsu for the member with the concurrent position. Which would likely be very unpopular. ‘Keyakizaka in Nogizaka CDs’ seems to be less unpopular because it could also refer to a B-side (even a Collab), not necessarily involvement in the single track itself. Generally, respondents strongly supported the idea of collabs on TV and of a group concert (which I personally want to see very much).


    48 group and other idols

    The number of fans interested in 48g is the same as Summer, scoring an average of 2.52 (where 1=46 purist, 7=48 purist, and 4=even). 161 respondents answered the question about their favourite 48G members. They listed 106 unique members with a total of over 400 votes. Thankfully most followed the instructions for name layout and it only took ~2 hours to go through them trying to eliminate as much errors as possible.

    48 group idols
    1. (35) Watanabe Mayu
    2. (26) Yamamoto Sayaka
    3. (21) Miyawaki Sakura
    4. (17) Yokoyama Yui
    5. (15) Matsui Jurina
    6. (14) Kashiwagi Yuki
    6. (14) Shimazaki Haruka
    8. (13) Okada Nana
    9. (10) Sashihara Rino
    10. (8) Kato Minami
    10. (8) Kojima Haruna

    The top 10 were rather unsurprising except for maybe NGT48’s Kato Minami, they are all top members in their recent elections. #12-103 are available in the linked spreadsheet (available from the bottom).

    As with Nogizaka/Keyakizaka, I asked respondents to express their interest in various forms of potential interaction between Sakamichi and the 48 group. I then gave these answers numerical values where 1=support and 4=opposition (middle=2.5). The average response for each question was as follows:

    48G interaction
    Sakamichi in AKB CDs – 3.54 (Fierce opposition)
    Kennin (concurrent position) between Sakamichi/48G – 3.54 (fierce opposition)
    Subgroup with members from both groups – 3.17 (strong opposition)
    Music show collaboration – 2.31 (mild support)
    Variety show collaboration – 2.54 (bare opposition)
    Drama collaboration – 2.78 (mild opposition)
    Group concerts – 3.07 (quite strong opposition)
    Participation at AKB events (like Kouhaku) – 2.97 (moderate opposition)

    Sakamichi in AKB CDs and Kennin were most strongly opposed, to little surprise. I wonder did SakamichiAKB change any opinions about that. Personally, I didn’t warm up to the idea any more, but I stopped resisting as much. The most support was for TV collaboration, as with Sakamichi crossovers. Surprisingly enough, opposition for participation in events like AKB’s Kouhaku was quite moderate. I wasn’t expecting that.

    Other groups
    1. (19) Babymetal
    2. (15) Morning Musume
    3. (14) BiS
    4. (12) BiSH
    4. (12) C-ute
    4. (12) Momoiro Clover Z
    7. (9) ANGERME
    8. (8) Yumemiru Adolescence
    9. (6) GEM
    9. (6) PassCode

    These are also very unsurprising. It’s mostly a combination of popular groups, particularly with overseas popularity, with the top group having a family connection to Nogizaka. I wasn’t expecting this much support for YumeAdo but I’m only a Sakamichi specialist so maybe it should have been expected.

    Music in 2016
    I asked respondents to their favourite Nogizaka A-side (including the album PR track Kikkake), Nogizaka B-side/album track, Nogizaka CD, Keyakizaka A-side, Keyakizaka B-side, Keyakizaka CD, and overall CD.

    See PDF for results:
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5MnhYWjM3YkNwWk0

    It was interesting to note how, despite Silent Majority winning first in Keyakizaka release, it lost to Futari Saison in the overall release. Made even more interesting by the fact that as individual tracks they tied with 100 points each.

    The end.
    Next poll won't be long away, I'm just waiting for the results of my meta poll before I release it.

    Spreadsheet:
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bz1ZO5A480-5Z0xiVFk1ME5BWDA
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2017
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  10. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    Updated with Keyaki's popularity analysis and new (updated) charts for Nogizaka's analysis.

    Also, I made a meta poll for asking for advice on the next poll. Please answer if you're interested.
    https://goo.gl/forms/74cbdDUbdcO60Jfo1
     
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  11. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    The new Seasonal Sakamichi series popularity poll is up!

    Rather sudden (just after the results from the previous poll are up) but I want to roll out the spring poll while it's still spring.
    https://goo.gl/forms/sBCmgHsiXTACbsJc2

    In addition to popularity there's also some (tough) questions about upcoming senbatsu, shipping questions and for the first time questions about who you don't like.
    I wasn't sure whether to include dislikes or not but I really want to see the trends. I want to see if and when it changes.

    Please check it out!
     
  12. YuNcHuNsA

    YuNcHuNsA Kenkyuusei

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    nishinonanase
  13. aisukurimu99

    aisukurimu99 Kenkyuusei

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    Submitted my response a while ago. As always, thanks @kanjo for taking the time to make this.
     
  14. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    Finally decided on the closing time.
    The poll will end midnight (JST) on Tues 9th of May.

    I've received just about 200 responses which is great, though as always I'd like to get as big a sample of the international fan community as possible so I can produce the most accurate findings.
    So I'm giving it 1 more week (about typical length of these). If you have anyone you'd like to introduce the survey to I'd appreciate it.
     
  15. minaeshi

    minaeshi Next Girls

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    got my response in ~ thanks again for hosting this kanjo!
     
  16. James Torralba

    James Torralba Kenkyuusei

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    DONE!! im excited about the results.. haha
     
  17. kanjo

    kanjo Under Girls Retired Staff

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    Feedback and suggestions from the first half of the polling period of my Spring Survey. I just thought it would be interesting to reply to them.

    Note: all questions are optional so you don’t have to worry about writing “no” or “nothing in particular” or “-“ if you don’t want to.
    As for suggestions, I don’t list all the good suggestions I got here, but there were many and I keep a backlog of them and hopefully I can work through them over the year.

    >I liked how the pairing and dislike parts were optional!

    Everything was but I felt like I needed to remind people for those potentially controversial questions.

    >There are skip a and skip b, it's kinda confusing since there's no explanation about the distinction between the 2, if both do the same shoulda been just "skip"

    There was a skip a and skip b because you need to select two options (because it’s about pairs) and all options need to be unique. I’ll clarify that next time there’s a similar question.

    >Shipping is gross quit it anthony

    Okay [​IMG]:(

    >the Dislike poll, could you use any weaker words like not appreciate member.

    I got a similar request before when I said I would do a dislike section but I was worried if I use weaker words (such as your suggestion or “least favourite members” as in another suggestion) people might select members that they just don’t care or members that they like but not as much as other members. The questions need to be honest or the answers won’t reflect reality. Sorry.

    >I’m X, please remind me of what I voted.

    Sure, just send me a message and I’ll send you your row from the results table. Only works if you made some unique votes/feedback.

    > I have an idea in regards of the formatting but I don't know if this is possible or not. (Caution: I'm bad at describing things.)
    For the "which member you want to..." questions, can you make the format similar to the disagree-unsure-agree questions? So the first column would list down members name, the "disagree", "agree" options would be changed into "make as center", "include in senbatsu", etc., but we can select more than one option for each member.

    I tried something like this before, because I wanted to make the quiz at least look shorter, but the grid-style question you’re describing only lets respondents pick one horizontal option. Unfortunate, but thanks for the suggestion, anyway.

    >In Question: Which Keyakizaka member/s you do not like, "Please select your favorite Keyakizaka members" is written

    Dammit.

    >Member that you want to see in drama/film (as member solo project/job)

    I’ve tried something like this before but I’m not sure how interesting it was. I’ll try again if people seem interested. If you or anyone else interested wants to suggest any particular questions I’d love to hear them.

    >I think it's good to include kennin question between the group.
    This is probably the first quiz when I haven’t asked about kennin. In the last poll, Winter ’16, support got 19 votes, mild support got 32 votes, mild oppose got 50 votes and strong oppose got 165. On a scale of 1 (support) to 4 (oppose) the responses averaged at 3.36.

    >Personally I like more questions but other people might not be down for it

    I also thought it was a little shorter than usual but some said it was long. For those who aren’t aware, these usually are much longer. But the only other ideas I had didn’t match any of the themes, were too controversial for this already controversial poll or would be very long if not the primary focus of the bonus section. Thus, I’m looking for more ideas.

    >How about “is Hiragana going to be a separate group?”

    For a prediction? Or for your opinion on the idea (i.e. “should Hiragana…”)? I think I might work with the opinion end of it.

    >Include some q for ex member. Adding UG section.

    Would “favourite former members” etc. be enough or did you have other ideas? I’d love to be able to give some extra attention to UG. What do you have in mind?

    >a section about the songs on each respective single/album would be cool! something like, what's the most popular song/solo song? I'm not sure entirely sure but I think it used to be part of this survey before.

    I did one of these before as its own survey. It would be incredibly long to include as a bonus for a popularity survey though if it seems in demand I might make it again.
    However, I do believe I should have included some kind of ranking for the current singles, as that wouldn’t be too long. I’ll amend this in the next one.

    >I'm quite new fan to Zakamichi group and I have a problem regcognizing some members especially those 3rd gens and hiragana. Wonder if there is any thing that can help besides going out and search. (It comes at the question to choose sembatsu.)

    I considered adding photos before but (1) it made the poll too long and (2) I feel like photos would serve less as a reminder and for some the only source of their choices. Not for everyone, but for enough people to change the results. That isn’t the kind of result I’m looking for.

    >Make a result for now score and final score of this polls

    I plan to! Though not now, sorry. I want to see if hiding the results during the polling period makes people less likely to alter their choices. So far it seems like it has.

    >When i choose disagree or agree segment, i would like to write my reason behind that so i hope there is more typing section (im sorry for my bad english)

    I agree. I was hesitant to add more typing sections because it’s a lot of work to organise but I’m very curious, especially after reading all the interesting opinions on Hirate’s centreship.

    >Also would be nice if we're allowed to write our mousou like Sakamichi collaboration in media like Drama or variety shows.

    Interesting. Hard to put into specific words though. I’ll think on it.

    >Something like, "Do you see yourself as big a fan of keyaki / nogi / both in 5 years time?"

    Will do. Something like that, anyway.

    >“Have you bought any of these photobooks?”

    Ooh. A photobook collection/rating question sounds great.

    >Hair/Fashion survey. What kind of style and hair fans think would suit members.

    Noted. I did one before but I’ll try to do it again, better.

    >Make the OTP many because i have 2 ships in Nogi and 3 in Keya, hahaha [​IMG]:D

    It would be soooo long. I’d need to have a full list for each pairing! (because if I just let everyone select 4 (etc.) I wouldn't be able to tell which two match each other.
     
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  18. Yukitie

    Yukitie Member Stage48 Donor

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    katiechan48
    Done too! Also excited to see about the results :D
     
  19. lingering_wanderer

    lingering_wanderer Kenkyuusei

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    hashimotonanami
    First time participating in the poll :^^;: and i appreciate that you take the time out to do this. Will try to participate more in the future!
     
  20. RedBug

    RedBug Member

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    I've done mine.
    I thought the deadline have passed, thankfully my memory was wrong. Thanks for your hardwork @kanjo
     

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