Graduation announcements thread

All remaining BNK48 2nd Generation members have announced graduation

https://x.com/48RequestHour/status/1762077891536277527?s=20

 

Contract ending?

 

Yes just like 1st generation.
Their final activities will be on April, not sure if they will get a Special Graduation Single like 1st Gen or not.

 

Hinatazaka46 1st Generation member Takamoto Ayaka has announced her graduation on the official blog

https://www.hinatazaka46.com/s/official/news/detail/O100027?ima=0000

She will leave the group after the release of Hinatazaka46's upcoming 11th single

 

SKE48 Team KII's Kitano Ruka (Rukatin) has announced graduation:
https://ske48.co.jp/news/detail/49285

She'll leave on 6/30.

 

Megu has just announced graduation

She'll leave at the end of May.

 

What did I tell you? Red flags everywhere.

 

Official notice with comment from Megu:
https://ameblo.jp/akihabara48/entry-12844926244.html

 

Kind of predictable but still....

By the end of the summer how many veterans will be left?

 

Surely Mion, I can see her announcing it this or next month. Also Komi/Seina, I'm not feeling like they'll stay until 2025. Iwatate also big candidate, but I'm not sure about Yuiri, can see her staying for two more years.

 

I'm surprised someone announced before Mion considering she has been throwing many grad flags lately.(Not GM anymore and recently stepped down from AKB hashira night).

 

ive been thinking about it these days, i think: Iwatate Saho (for obvious reasons of never getting big appearances in AKB even though she's a super talented and charismatic girl ) i think she will announce it in the next four months, Seina its about six months... for some reason, in the back of my head, something tells me Mahopyon next year. About Yuiri, it's surprising to me that she hasn't graduated YET, i really love her but whenever i see her i think "she's going to announce it now, i'm sure", idk why, but i feel that way with her since Naachan left, always thinking "after Nana, now it's Yuiri's turn". < The same about Komiharu, whenever she go to says something i think it's a graduation announcement, i think the mass graduation in the last few months has traumatized me.

the most likely, undeniably given the current scenario, is Mukaichi Mion. i really love her, she's one of my current favorites, but she's really been showing several grad flags for a long time, moving the GM forward is the clearest of them. i can see her announcing in the next 2 months.

 

I don't see Yuiri going anywhere for a while - her most recent goal is 1500 stages, and it wouldn't surprise me if she revises her goal upwards as she reaches 1500 stages.
Sahho, I can see her sticking it out for 1 final single, and going after that if she doesn't make senbatsu.
I think Mion is safe until the next concert (or Dec 8), as I don't see management allowing Mion to announce her graduation unless it's at a big event where most of the members are present (such as a concert or theatre anniversary - Takamina's announcement was at a theatre anniversary, Yuihan's was at a concert). That's why I was surprised that she didn't announce at the concerts over the weekend.
I expected Komi to have announced her graduation by now (especially at her seitaisai last year), but maybe once her outside jobs die down and she can appear in the theatre again?

 

I think you make a good point about Yuiri. I could see her and maybe Sahhoo staying to occasionally perform in theater and do other jobs.

I've got a hunch about the next senbatsu though, I think management will switch to "all new" senbatsu and go with a "rebirth of AKB" theme with majority 17th/18th/19th gens. I think only Zukkii, Erii, Kurumi and maybe Taguchi will be the only surivivors from the "old members" because they look young. Maybe YuiYui also if she dosen't grad. Maybe Narumi will get a spot for being souchan. So that would be 10 members from 17-19th gen at least.

That's my prediction for the post-summer senbatsu. I predicted the current downsizing so I've got form

 

I'm pretty sure Yuiyui won't be graduating, when Yukirin announced graduation at the end of 2023, she pretty much told Yuiyui that she's leaving the group to her care, now of course it doesn't mean Yuiyui 100% won't graduate (it's not sure that any member won't graduate), but it's really unlikely. She's 22 right now and I see her staying for at least 2 more years. She loves AKB and I think she knows how important she is to the group, now that majority of the popular girls left... They will have to rely on her (and on Yuiri among others) for quite a bit, while pushing the new girls.

Also Naru is 100% staying in senbatsu after becoming general manager, and for being high among HS sellers. Yuiri will also stay in senbatsu as long as she's here, considering she's the strongest HS seller. Zukkii and Erii will of course stay, but I'm not too sure for Manaka and Kurumi (who isn't in senbatsu). I see them giving a chance to Kururun for a first time senbatsu and also keeping Manaka in senbatsu for now, but management never really treated them as a priority... so we'll have to see if both of them could become regular senbatsu or not.

I'm looking at the senbatsu for Colorcon Wink, and I think Yukirin's spot will definitely go to a new gen. Maho, Yuiyui, Naru, Miu, Manaka, Erii, Miion, Yuiri, Zukkii are all staying. I can see management dropping Ayamin and giving that spot to Kururun (the "first time senbatsu" spot, for non-KKS). That would make it 10 "old gens" and then 6 "new gens".

I just don't think management will take the risk to make a complete new senbatsu and they're never going to drop Yuiyui or Yuiri. But having 6 new gens in senbatsu is already a lot, and this will only go higher everytime one of the "old gens" who's regular senbatsu will graduate, because I don't see management giving a free spot to a member who isn't 17/18/19 gens.

Also let's not forget Remi and Hiyuka. I guess Hiyuka still can't move to Tokyo for now? But Remi could get in senbatsu as well... She might get selected for the "first time senbatsu" spot.

The first single of 2025 might have more "new gens" than "old gens" in it, but probably not the one at the end of this year... Let's see.

 

If they decided to kick Manaka out from senbatsu then Mahopyon (and even Shitao) should be out either. How come Mahopyon still survived 5 consecutive singles (Miu dropped in DouSuki) despite her low sales? She was variety queen during Sayonara Mouri era but tbh what keep her in the senbatsu till now? Being the only member of 3rd Draft? Manaka is Top5 in HS sales for 63rd single so I doubt they would drop her. They CAN'T DROP HER she must be a regular senbatsu now.

For me, DH had lost the perfect timing to push Remi-Hiyuka. I can understand about Hiyuka but they was pushing Remi around the Hisalip era then just suddenly stopped. Please DH please just give her another chance.

 

Yuiri was so happy and excited when management announced that they're renovating the theatre, so I'm expecting her to stay a few more months at the very minimum, and I think she also wants to perform that new original stage (if we ever actually get it... I'm still holding out hope). Yuiri also said that she doesn't know what she would be doing if she hadn't become an idol, maybe work part time in a konbini or something, but I think Yuiri's biggest passion - similar to Yukirin - is being an idol, and she can fulfil that dream best while in AKB.

As for Komiharu, I'm also actually surprised she hasn't graduated yet. She hasn't been in senbatsu for years and I doubt it's going to happen ever again. Additionally, she isn't selling out in hanashikai at all, unlike other non-senbatsu member (Sahho as top seller, Megu and Seichan also a few at least) and being Team K captain was her lifeblood for a while. She wants to be a model, more than an idol from my point of view, but she hasn't really hit the mark and knows she won't ever be a supermodel because of her height (her own words). Maybe she thinks she wouldn't be able to do anything outside of AKB? I'm not sure.

 

IMO I think Yuiri could still be around for at least another couple of years, she seems to be enjoying life with AKB48 and I can't see her leaving anytime soon. As for Komi, obviously I don't want her to leave but I'm surprised she hasn't done so yet and I really can't see her staying into 2025. I think maybe she's more or less given up becoming a model (perhaps her DVD is an attempt to see if she has any future in gravure) but it would appear for now that her future is in acting. Maybe it's better for her if her name appears in cast lists with '(AKB48)' rather than with '(元AKB48)'? Also I wonder what sort of business arrangement she might have with her sister's cafe in Yokohama? She publicises it a lot in her SNS and she holds occasional fanmeets there. Her sister seems to have plans to develop the business (she recently had a pop-up cafe in Shibuya) so maybe it's better for her if Komi remains a current member of the group?

 

You're looking at it from a gradual change perspective and your points are all valid in that perspective.

However, I'm looking at it from a marketing perspective. People just aren't interested in AKB anymore and how do you get them interested? "New AKB" and that means getting rid of anyone that is "old" or looks old and the put out a group that looks fresh. This is not me judging members, it's just a view from a sales and marketing perspective. And please don't come back with "so and so is really popular on tiktok/instagram", an outlier here and there is irrelevant, just look at the trajectory of the last 8 years or so, management obviously sat up and realized that the group needs to be radically downsized and "freshened up"

 

Takahata Yuki (Hatagon) of SKE48 Team E has just announced graduation. She'll leave at the end of June and will remain with Zest for acting-related work.

Official notice:
https://ske48.co.jp/news/detail/49514

Article from Tokyo Sports:
https://www.tokyo-sports.co.jp/articles/-/297105