Discussion in 'Nogizaka46 News & Releases' started by halcyon, Jul 3, 2019.
Six 2ki is highly unlikely to happen
Unless there's mass exodus of 1ki perma senbatsu .
it was 5 for Sing Out! so i think 6 is not an unreasonable number considering the situation right now
The emergence of 4ki core makes it harder for 2ki
Only Miona Maichun and possibly Kii got automatic spots in senbatsu.
While 3ki got 4 or 5 automatic slots in senbatsu
So the fate of 2ki unders like Ranze Ayane and Miria depends on their competitiveness against 4ki's Top 4.
I think only EnSaku in 4ki got automatic spot nxt senbatsu but it still depends on a lot variables.
why are you so sure? just look at the current senbatsu, there's already 3 2nd gen in it, and 4 out the 5 perma senbatsu from the 3rd gen is also in it. Reika's spot is empty, so there's one spot to fill, they most likely going to drop most if not all of the 4th gen, which create another 2-3 spot. plus they most likely going to revert back to the usual 20-21 member senbatsu for the next single, which means, more empty spots. also if you're looking at it from popularity stand point, Reno, Hazuki and Ayatii (the 3 3rd gen that's never been senbatsu) is doing worst than every 2nd gen member except Kotoko, and if you look at the top, the 2nd gen are only below the top 4-5 3rd gen that's already in the senbatsu. actually, if you look at the average, the 9 2nd gen member is selling better than the 12 3rd gen member (or 11 i guess since momoko is not in the list)
And you forgot a big factor that would prevent Six 2ki in senbatsu :
That would be Inoue's return and Chima.
And the fight for senbatsu spots would be between their generation's Top 5 or 6 ; so let's see how they stack against each other.
2ki Top 6: Miona . Maichun. Kii. Ranze . Miria and Ayane
3ki Top 6: Zukki. Yodo KBS Momoko Ume Renka
4ki Top 6: EnSaku. Ayamen. Kaki. Sayaka. Mayutan
- Four 3ki members outsold 2ki's ace miona while the 5th matches her numbers
- 2ki lower rank members outselling 3ki lower rank members is a non factor in senbatsu selection if their Top tiers are getting outsold
- I also doubt they would drop Inoue to Unders
- They will not drop all 4ki ; I guess they would keep Ayame and EnSaku in it. This situation is different than Asahinagu senbatsu . That senbatsu is predetermined before 3ki enters the frame.
Well, if only senbatsu spots are based solely on HS results, but we know from experience that isn't the case. The 2nd gen has always been sidelined in favor of 1st and 3rd gen, and now with 4th gen coming it's unlikely to change.
Mgmt is unlikely to drop all 4th gens next single now that they have built a big momentum. While it's true that they did that with 3rd gens, but Itsudeki is kinda special I guess is because it was tied with Asahinagu, a project that 3th gen didn't participate.
Don't get me wrong, I wish to see more 2nd gens in senbatsu too, but based on past data and recent development, that's not likely to happen. But if it happens, I'm happy with it.
-first, ok, Sayunyan will probably return (and i already consider that in my previous post) but i doubt Chima will
-second, yes, 4 3rd gen is outselling Miona, but so what? all 4 of them are in the senbatsu already. were talking about having more 2nd gen in not less 3rd gen. also, i wouldn't call that outselling, since both 2nd and 3rd gen are selling around the same rate, especially at the top.
-third, 4th gen is doing very well, yes, but is it sustainable? they're still new, so people will naturally invest more in the early days. but look at Riria, Tamami and Denchan, they're very inconsistent.
- fourth, are you sure about the 4th gen top 6? remember, both Ume and Renka were only backmarkers in the early days, it was always about the top 4 (momoko, yoda, zuki, kubo) with riria as the 5th. so are the members you're listing really considered the top 4th gen?
-fifth, remember, this is an experimental senbatsu to introduce the 4th gen, which is why its smaller than the previous senbatsu (18 compare to 22), and they have the most popular member in it. they will probably go back to that 21-22 member senbatsu, which mean there's at least 5 empty spot in the senbatsu if we retain all of the 4th gen in the current senbatsu, which i doubt they will because of the experimental nature of the current senbatsu, because right now the momentum of the group is still with the 3rd gen. so let's say they kept Sakura in the senbatsu, that leave 7 spots open. let's say Momo, Rentan and Sayu is back in, that still leave 4 empty spots. next obvious choice is to put Ranze, Miria and Ayane back in, and even then there's still 1 spot open. i doubt that last spot will go to a 1st gen because they need the senior presence in the under, i also doubt that it will be a 4th gen because its not their time just yet. my guess that its going to be either Reno or Renachi getting their first senbatsu.
- finally, i don't know if you notice, but everytime there's a 1st gen senbatsu member graduate, a 2nd gen got in to the senbatsu.
of course its not, if the senbatsu is only based on HS, then Maiyan, Asuka, Mattsun among other should not even be in there. the momentum of the group right now is with the 3rd gen, so naturally they will have priority in the senbatsu, maybe even centers the next single. the 4th are still new, which is why they want to experiment with them, but i doubt they will be retain for the next single, because again, the 3rd gen have priority. 2nd gen is actually the save option, they're consistent enough and experienced enough to support the other from the 3rd row
I still think that there will be more 2nd gen members in senbatsu in the future. Also, I think there Wil be no 4th gen next sebastsu because it seems they're repeating the same pattern from 2 years ago with 3rd gen, meaning that next year is when 4th will be integrated with the rest being some members in senbatsu and the other as unders.
Also with future graduation there will be more spots, and I don't think that none of them will be for 2nd gen members.
I'm actually hoping they keep 4th gen, all three of them. I don't know, to suddenly drop any of the 3 doesn't feel right to me. I think they would want to build on 4th gen's momentum even more.
If I were to compare, Momoko & Yoda where put in center position but they were flanked by two of their strongest members Maiyan & Nanase. This time the 3 new girls were put in the spotlight to take the lead. This trio would leave a better impression, imo. Now if they won't keep them, I think 3rd gen will benefit from it more than 2nd gen.
There are many senior perma Senbatsu members available then, now more and more vacant spot up for grab since graduation will likely continue. There's no going back now, they need to promote these younger generation slowly but surely. Of course you can make the argument, why not give it to the remaining 2nd gen? By now we should already have an idea how management think, right?
Seven are left from 1st, we'll see if Inoue comes back (to Senbatsu) to make it eight. I'm betting Momoko and Renka will be Senbatsu again. Ranze, Ayane and Miria are the obvious choice for 2nd. But looking back at Sing Out, there are five 2nd gen vs 8 freaking 3rd gen minus Yamashita. I'm not against the idea of more 2nd gen but think about it. Will they gamble with Rena or Junna the way they did with Denchan, Tamami and Riria? I mean will they give them that one chance to enter Senbatsu? At whose expense? At this time? Look at the HS 4th rounders, who will they likely pick between Miria, Renka, Sakura, Kaki and Ayame? Maybe all of them. But we all know how long Miria waited for her turn and I'm not too sure her next selection will come immediately. Then you add Sayaka to the mix.
I have no doubt those 2nd gen Senbatsu will come back from time to time. Six at the same time is possible but not likely to happen since I think they want to keep few of them with Under. Give it until next year, 4th gen might become a stronger competition than 3rd gen or at least they'll be on equal strength (top members). I agree 4th gen will make it harder for 2nd gen. If they increase Senbatsu back to 20/21, they can accommodate more from each generation which I think is the better path moving forward. We can at least see 5 2nd gen again, maybe. 3rd gen got a strong hold on Senbtasu already. I believe this single is the beginning for 4th.
I guess we only have to wait for the next annoucement to see what will happen. Although I do wishes for more opportunities for 2nd gen I won't be delusional by wishing and expecting senbatsu spots for Rena, Junna and Kotoko. But I think it won't bad if they're given a more prominent position in Under's songs. My expection and wish of having a senbatsu with 6 2nd gen members applies only for the top 6 we all already know who they are, since I think they're popular enough to in senbatsu. But as I mention we have to wait to see what management gives us.
they’ll do a 2017 pattern which is next single will be 1-3ki. 2ki will definitely have a chance to enter senbatsu in numbers regardless of the other gens. Optimism and all that lark.
I wouldn’t mind 4ki still being in senbatsu but I do want 2ki to seize 2019 as their year.
I just watched the performance and it's good to see Manatsu performing, and she's the one who got Reika's position, so Kazumi was replacing her.
here’s a thing. ive been telling that how individual handshake works on my previous post. http://stage48.net/forum/index.php?...utemoii-2019-09-04.22967/page-37#post-1623236. riria and kaede were slower since 4th gen came, but at end of the road both are standing neatly on >25/30. consistency wasnt what round you sold out at but how much you sold out at the end. cuz x-rounds only determines how fans put these girl on their top/less priorities of balloting. especially when new girls came, lets said you like one of the 4ki senbatsu trio + you like riria / kaede too, everyone knows that should prioritize 4ki senbatsu trio instead because they were likely gonna sold out faster than riria / kaede.
If we talk about dropping popularity, technically it only happen with Yamazaki. she’s absolutely bombing out into oblivion based on previous single statistics.
There’s no thing about sustain when they’re just debut in cd release less than 1 years. but the fact is 4ki is the futures they want to build around with and 2ki weren’t. its undeniable fact.
i like ranze. but there’s no realm that management would think that she’s gonna be the first row material / ace / perma senbatsu or whatever it is you gonna called as how do maiyan,nanase,asuka even kaz/ringo/misa would do at their stint on nogizaka. while they believe more than 1 of sakura,kakki,ayame,sayaka,mayu even rei gonna being able to do it in the futures.
if they would gone to safe route. then just went for massive pushes with the current senbatsu trio right now. if they want to gamble, they could took whoever between sayaka,mayu,saya,rei,yuna even hayakawa had a superb results this single.
its all about business and future plans. like or not, 2ki never been valued as nogi futures except maybe hori.
4th gen doesn’t have the sustainaburu yet. but dropping / loosening their push just gonna make the sustainable more harder in the futures. and it likely wouldn’t be a wise choice for management.
there’s a slight chance for they got rotation for one single ( despite i doubt it since itsuka dekiru were single based on asahinagu ). but in the 25th single upwards obviously some of the 4th gen gonna be perma senbatsu and prioritizing kaede/riria over ranze/ayane , or giving charities to mukai instead junna/ktk were likely happen too
Since this is brought up and I just saw this today, I just want to say that I mostly agree with your explanation.
Just want to add that sometimes there's exception, for example Kubochan who is among those who sold out at 2nd round but she's currently given pair lane at NHS. I reckon how management wants to handle the members respectively is also taken into consideration here.
I don't see prioritizing Kaede over Ranze/Ayane is a future plans. They are at the same age and her popularity, imo, isn't even more than Ranze/Ayane.
That theory is inaccurate ; when you add to the fact that Hoshino and Miona have solo lanes in NHS eventho they only sold out their 30 slots in the 3rd rd IHS.
I find Shiori nerf by mgt on a number of occasions :
- she's only 3ki core that hasn't assigned in the front row (Minamin is in 1st row in 22nd )
- She's sent to under in her return in favor of charity picks like Saito Yuuri and Denjirou
- she's been neck n neck with zukki ever since 3nin Principal and yet she's treated like she only sold out in the 4th rd.
Well, thank you for saying this, since I actually have the same thing in mind but I don't have the heart to say it. Don't want to start unnecessary conflict in the forum, is all. I prefer to wait. I pray management will treat her better later, and I observe she's gaining their trust now. I want to believe.
ok, since this being brought up i actually doesnt really comfortable to play x girls shit becausw y girls are better choice. but once a while i guess its fine.
yuttan had been enter / re enter senbatsu for quite some times. and sure everyone should know that yuttan being on nanase last single wasnt a surprise things. im not telling nanase gonna request this, but well. having 1 of her best friends on her last single wouldn’t be wrong isnt? especially when there’s huge chance mgmt already know that yuttan gonna grad in a few moments after nanase finishing all her graduation show / concert whatever.
and regarding kubo unfair treatment or anything else. here’s some fact that tbh i dont really want to talk about openly because its likely gonna be more conflict material.
Do you know one obvious reason why she’s went into hiatus ?
She’s gaining weight. she’s losing fans massively, getting yelled debu in mini live, and being attack by anti / fans who turn their back against her in various chances
due to everything happen back in those awful days. nobody gonna expect that kubo gonna be as strong as before fanbas wise.
oh but she looks healthier yup, whatever. but gain weight always be a bad things in front of local wota mentality.
i always have a great soft spot with her and her fans, especially everyone who’s being fans since day 1 know how frustrating for mizuki and kubo being left out at nigemizu.
but she’s still sold out on 2nd round yes she is, im not telling she’s drop into bottom tier with this. but she’s losing fans massively which much or less need to be considered. but everyone who follow her local fanbase/scene know that after this things happen she’s not as strong as she used to be in the past. lot of whale fans disappointed, new anti popping left and right.
ikw with more politely way of speaking @eternalord also know all this facts and he used to tell this story too.
Bruh, kubo fans shouldnt feel threatened with the existence of kaede,tamami or whoever it is.
she just need time to gain back all her confidence,fanbase, and everything she lost back years ago. everyone who came to event regularly know that between her and mizuki , ume , yoda even momo she had the weakest fanbase right now. but everything is fine, she’s still sold well, she’s still being valued highly by management, as time passed on im still optimistic that everything could be good.
ok but this is a fact that everyone disliked to admit. but you wouldn’t never could expect that any 2ki girls gonna be valued equally with 3ki girls. unless it was hori / maichun. its not due to age or what. but technically like or not, 3ki hierarchy was higher than 2ki in overall aspects. especially its only matter of times that maybe lot of 1ki senbatsu staples gonna graduate soon. i guess everyone shouldn’t be surprised that denjiro/riria/renka gonna fill their spots instead of various 2ki girls.
Well, tbh i admit that atm 3rd gen is more prioritizing by management more than 2nd gen due to "future plans" but for me it's only down to their top 5 member whom will be perma senbatsu. But if we keep talk about future plans but we mentioned someone's not younger than Asuka, Ranze, Ayane, Miria, even Junna, that's pointless when we have lots of more potential and younger members. I'm not talking only about 2nd gen member anyway, we have 4th gen already and like you mentioned in your previous post, most of them is doing so well.
So, rather than prioritizing Denchan over Ranze/Ayane for a perma senbatsu spot, i'd wisely use her spot to give spotlight to another 4th gen, if we still talk about "future plans". Imo, Denchan will be in the same league with the likes of Chima, Ranze, Ayane, and some other, they will stand on the border line between senbatsu and UG.