Event / Concert 37th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2014/06/07)

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Voting your oshi and agenda push have similarities and difference at the same time. They are the same in the sense that both want the girls to rank in but the different lies in the first genuinely wants to support the girl while the latter will vote any girl as long as she fit the criteria (the center of team BII in Shu's case)

Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with agenda push, I just dislike it personally.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Let's say your oshi is a non-senbatsu, unpopular/unpushed girl in BII - obviously won't rank. Is it better for her if no one from BII ranks? Or is it better if her teammate Shu makes it in the election and tells everyone to pay attention to her team? Would it be better in 4th election if no one from HKT ranked instead of fans supporting Sakura to at least get one girl up there and give hope&ambition to the rest?

No one will support "a girl who fits the criteria" if they don't actually want to support her, and I don't think their reasons are all that important. I think it's quite noble to give up voting for your oshi just to support her group/teammate hoping that this might lead to more attention on that group/team in the next year.

I think Dasu's position in SKE/48G is a lot more stable compared to Aya after last election, so I hope Aya's fans will vote strongly for her again I don't trust SKE management LOL.. I can't predict yet which SKE girls they might choose to support though, hopefully some 5th gen will make it this year too, like Nao. And I think new Team 4 fans might choose to support one girl, I'm really hoping Kojimako makes it, Next Girls seems possible to me

My only real prediction is for Sashihara to grab #1 again.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Am I the only one that really dislikes it when Japanese names are written using the western convention? Dammit, Kojiharu's first name ain't Kojima too.

Honestly think senbatsu is gonna stay stable this year from the last with the top UG ranking up into senbatsu. I'm betting Rie, Miichan and possibly Umechan to get in. Sakura has jumped enormously in two elections and seeing her as UG center or even in senbatsu would be no surprise indeed.

I really hope that this ain't the year where the 7th gens who ranked last year drop out. Aamin, Sakiko, etc.

The top two from SKE and NMB will move up a few places to accommodate the graduates.

Kaotan might possibly jump to UG centre. Kaotan and Aya taking the top two might be an interesting prospect. Akarin probably will drop to around there too.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I think the big question is where they will rank...Team 4 Wotas could power vote Kojimako, but that would let Mikichan and Naachan behind. "Everybody in their own" would be more interesting I can imagine Kojimako in low Undergirls and Mikichan/Naachan in New Girls, but all of them very close. And Saho in Future Girls, yay.

I don't think Aamin will drop out this year, but I'm not really sure about Sakiko. Wasamin, Suuchan and (especially) Ayarin will probably increase some positions.

And, talking about older members, Haachan increased 14 positions last year, which was quite surprising (Hardcore wotas ). Harukyan is another older member that is usually surprising in the Elections.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

If you would've said that Sasshi will overtake Yukirin, Mayu and Yuko last year before the election, somebody would've also told you that you are hugely deluded. Just goes to show how fast things can change, so Mayu winning this year is not impossible. Last year's votes won't get carried over to this year's election, so that 50k votes lead last year that you are boasting is irrelevant. We don't know for sure if Sasshi would still get the same number of votes. It's a different election so the results will be different. Remember, no one has won the election twice in a row. I think it's because winning changes the mindset of the fans, they become too overconfident (like you are right now) and doesn't come back with the same desire to win. On the other hand, you have Mayu fans who still haven't achieved their goal of putting Mayu at number one. There's not a lot of time left to do that as the management is now shifting their focus to the newer gens so you can count that Mayu fans will step it up this year. It's hard to get to the top, staying there is even harder. Mayu has proven in the past few years that she has the ability to stay at the top, never dropped out of the top 5 in 5 straight elections. There are girls who were able to enter the top 5 but immediately dropped out of it and never able to sniff it again. Now that Sasshi made it to the top, can she stay there? fans are no longer curious like last year what AKB will be like with her as the center now that we have already seen it, so I think this time they will choose someone with the right image to center the group, not necessarily Mayu though, could also be someone else.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

The thing is that Mayu (nor Yuko) seem to be gaining more fans than those they already have.

In 2012 Mayu got 1'5k more votes than Yukirin. In 2013, she got 5k more.
In 2012, Yuko got 36k more votes than Mayu. In 2013, she still got 36k more.

I see that as their fans buying more votes (they were cheaper), but not more fans.
The bigger difference between Mayu and Yukirin might be that her fans tried harder to get her higher... but it just wasn't enough.

Sasshi, on the other hand... she went from 67000 to 150000. Exactly, an increase of 83231 of votes.
Those 83231 alone would have made any other girl rank 6th (right behind Mariko) and I really doubt it's just her fans buying more votes. She clearly gained more fans. Maybe casual fans, maybe wotas who don't mind about scandals, maybe rich guys who want to see her pictures. Whatever. She got more.
And I really doubt she'll lose them.

Sasshi is wining again this year for sure.
Mayu will try and reduce the gap, but that's all she's gonna do, IMO.
WMatsui and the NMB duo are other forces to consider. They doubled their votes last year too.

In any case, I think it's just too soon to know (5 months!).
They might play the Mechaike card again on another member that could skyrocket her god knows where.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I wonder Yuko,Tomojin, Mariko,sayaka fan will vote for whom.
I guess Mariko fan and Yuko fan may vote Kojiharu or Yuko fan vote Mayuyu
Tomojin fan may vote for Paruru
sayaka fan may vote for sae

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I pray they make a Mechaike for Renacchi, even though this is her last chance...

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Not going to happen. They will either not bother with the election or vote for their new oshimen. Fans don't vote for their oshi's BFF, I think

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

This thread can be merged with the hopes and prediction thread I believe?

But well anyway, 2 possibly 3 new positions in senbatsu, think it'll go to Ricchan, Miichan and Umechan. I hope Akarin falls out of senbatsu and maybe the last spot will go to Kitarie? IDK man, Kitarie is losing steam. Otherwise there could very well be no one in Team K from senbatsu.

Hope Renacchi debuts in Under Girls. She's gaining speed. It scares me to think of how the front line of Under Girls would be all SKE members. Suda, Shibata, Kizaki, Takayanagi, Kaotan etc. Shudders.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

You raised some interesting points there black_snow.

Sasshi's fans might get complacent but that doesn't mean they will lay back on the voting, methinks. After all there's still the streak of her ranking up every election to be accounted for, plus the thing about her being the only girl to win it consecutively. That should be enough motivation imo.

Mayu on the other hand - I just don't see how she will get first this year, because even after her 2nd position on the Gingham election where she announced her wish of becoming center, well it didn't happen the next year even with fans probably voting for her like mad in the light of that announcement. Her fan base to me has remained stable and not grown exponentially like the new gen pushes to warrant such a large increase in votes too. So I'm not sure how will they close the gap unless there is some campaign for all Yuko oshis to vote for Mayu instead (very unlikely)


There's also the lack of 'new things happening' that would bring more attention to Mayu I guess. Sasshi got that 'scandal' when she was 4th in AKB and that propelled her quite a bit in terms of votes and popularity (and probably got HKT on its feet simultaneously) because well, in the end it was just a jealous ex looking to leech some money off her popularity unlike Miichan's case.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

All of your predictions lack one important ingredient to ensure sousenkyo enlarging AkiP's pocket, drama. Here is my prediction:

Facing the huge vote disparity between S and M, AkiP thinks about his pocket and then gives a call to two girls Y and A. After numerous flops in their acting careers, Y and A answer AkiP's and their own calling, agree to participate. Their wotas, shocked by their decision, do not react properly and let S and M capture the top 2 spots in preliminary. M will probably capture the top spot due to the financial resources her wotas accumulated in the whole year for this battle. However, in the final election, thanks to their two big pictures always in the election venue and the fact that their wotas think it will be their "last" one, A and Y easily capture the top spots. A continues edge ahead of Y by god's will (aka AkiP's will). Moved by her wotas' dedication, A recognizes her true talent and rejoins AKB to show her kouhai how to be center.

Meanwhile, after losing in the preliminary, S regains the ground and wins against M, capturing the third spot. A bit behind, the girl who-doesn't-know-why-she-is-here P continues mesmerizing her huge army. However, she can't compete with J's organized Nagoya-based army who, after so many graduations, do not know where to put their votes. At the second tier, the girl-who-used-to-be-bald Mi is under intense pressure to withdraw from this lowly election mess as both of her fellow "pioneers" in "without sleeves" do not participate. However, at the last minute, after constant persuasion from fellow teammates, she convinces herself that she is gen 1X, not gen 1 and participate as a new-gen. She easily beat most of her lowly kouhai though and capture a spot in senbatsu.

Disclaimer: I have no responsibility whatsoever if some of my predictions are true. You hear it here first

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

so, you're just gonna dismiss the possibility that perhaps both might be gaining new fans at the same rate that time and just gonna assume that both didn't gain any just because the gap between the two didn't change much?

I dunno... [shake] Yukirin was just two spots below the 1st place, what makes you think that her fans didn't try as hard as Mayu fans to put her at the top spot. I'm sure every fan even those who were not competing for the top spot tried their best to put their oshi higher because no one wants to see their oshi not rank or drop in the ranking.

Yep, Sasshi did increase her votes that much and if you would look at it that way, it really would give you an impession that it will be really difficult for Mayu to catch up with her but let's not forget that Mayu also increased hers (which btw is also enough to make another girl rank at 24th), so she really wouldn't need that much votes to keep up with Sasshi. Yeah, 50k is still a lot of votes but I believe most of that came from casual fans that she gained because of the scandal that brought a lot of attention to her. Casual fans are not as loyal as wotas, by the time of the next election, a lot of them might no longer be interested with her. Plus, I think her wotas desire to win would also drop. So, I believe there's a really high chance that Sasshi would not be able to exceed or at least maintain that 150k+ votes of hers unless something will happen again that would bring a lot of attention to her.

"Yuko is gonna win for sure" - that's what most people said last year but she didn't. so, you see, in this election nothing is for sure.

she already reached the top, there's no more room for her to rank up. Yeah, making her the only girl to win it consecutively will motivate her fans but it's still not as strong as winning it for the first time.

Fans would still vote for her like mad anyway even if she didn't make that announcement so I don't know what makes that so important. Everything just went right for Sasshi last year, there's not much Mayu can do about it. There's probably nothing Mayu could've done that time that would bring more attention to her than Sasshi's scandal. I think that's really where most of Sasshi's votes came from. Scandals just interest people even those non AKB fans. Yeah, Sasshi's total votes last year makes it hard to believe that she could still be beaten but like I said this year's election is different. Who would've thought that Yuko would beat Acchan? or Sasshi would beat Yuko? no one, until it happened. Remember, Mayu doesn't have to get over 150k votes to win, all she has to do is to exceed whatever Sasshi will get this year.

Well, with all the graduations, there's not a lot of girls left that are familiar to casual fans, I think Mayu would benefit a lot from that.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Maybe not dismiss, but if they're indeed gaining new fans, Yuko is gaining a lot more.
And Sasshi... well, she got an army.

Like 24th is that important compared to the top. C'mon.

Well, most of the girls who havwe gone down in the election do so because others get more votes, not becuase they lose them, so... yeah, maybe Sasshi won't win cause Mayu will get more, but what we've seen in these years is that Mayu has a loyal fanbase from the beginning while Sasshi attracts more people each year and it doesn't seem to be stoping.

Watch her getting 200k votes this year.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

lol that's not the point and c'mon like all the girls in your signature didn't even rank higher than 24.

lol I doubt that will happen but if it does then to Sasshi.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Agree with black snow

Nothing is for sure with the elections. Like you said with last year. Everybody thought Yuko would win, and bam Sasshi won. Look back at 2010,I'm sure everybody thought Acchan would win again, and BAM. Yuko wins. So Sasshi winning isn't for sure, same with Mayu. Yukirin or Jurina could pull a surpise just like Sasshi did in 2013. Sasshi and Mayu will gain more votes (maybe not 200,000, but close to it) I think the Top 5 will have everybody in the 100,000 votes tbh.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Last year had so many unpredictable outcomes that it's really a question of what rankings were legit.

Hard to say, since girls like Aya Shibata and Akari Suda came out of nowhere to take the positions they did. Same goes for a lot of first time rankings and members that made great strides. I think some more obvious members like Rina Kawaei, will move within senbatsu, as well as a few others like maybe Yuria Kizaki or Sakura Miyawaki for example. I feel like Paru should move up a bit more from last year with all the graduations, maybe even Yui now too.

Whatever the case, there's a little more room in senbatsu, so new members will make it in for sure.

Almost every year there is a girl who finds her way in against the odds too, and I predict that it will happen again for someone lucky enough.

As for who will get 1st, it's hard to imagine Sasshi going down at all based on last year, or even someone finding overwhelming support to somehow compete with her yet.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Last year Mayu had a chance to win it all so I would think that her fans were going all out. People also were thinking you should not forget about Yukirin. In the end it wasn't even close. Yuko would have had no competition if Sasshi hadn't risen up. Sasshi didn't just come out of nowhere either. She was a girl who rose all the way into the ranks of the kami members and now she has HKT behind her. If they don't have a sister group to back them I see no chance of sasshi losing.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Wouldn't be bothered bringing Yukirin into the equation; she herself said that she prefers her spot at #3 instead of center. She does that in French Kiss and in her solo stuff already anyways. I read somewhere about her fans complaining about her being behind Jurina who ranked lower in a KFC performance and was like, she won't even care!

As I said again, Urano Team B getting the top 3 positions would be an expected and satisfying result imo.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

1-Sasshi
2-Mayuyu
3-Yukirin
4-Rena
5-Jurina
6-Sae
7-Haruna (if she decide to enter)
8-Takamina
9-Paruru
10-Sayanee
11-Milky
12-Yui
13-Akarin
14-Kawaei
15 & 16- two random ske girls

I don't see how Mayu can surpass Sasshi. I love her but her management (Ogi Pro) wasted her momentum and they didn't create something big for her. Her last photobook wasn't good(I dislike it) and her last single wasn't that great as Hikaru Monotachi. And they also failed in promote her in other fields (just some works like seiyuu). Her fanbase is big enough to give her the 2nd place but she won't be above Sasshi this year.