Event / Concert 37th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2014/06/07)

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

And how do you know that? DO you work inside AKB?!

Do you know that the theatre edition is almost half the price than the regular one?
And do you know that last year the theatre edition also had voting tickets for the first time?

We don't know where the votes come from (from which edition that is), but for all we know, Mayu fans could have ignored the regular edition and just buy the theatre edition. She could have gained 0 new fans and still get more votes BECAUSE THEY WERE CHEAPER.

64th last year got 11.602 votes.
In 2012, that would have been enough to be 29th.
But in 2013, 29th got 23.588 (enough to be 17th in 2012).

I don't think it's that hard to understand, EVERYBODY got more votes cause it was cheaper for the fans, so stop saying that she got more votes like she was the only one.

I'm not saying she gained 0 new fans. She probably did.
But I do agree with PooPyon that that was Mayuyu at her strongest, IMO.

From the moment the ManaGuu PV was released, where she shared the center with Acchan and was labelled as the "next ace", ranking 2nd, getting more solo singles than any other AKB soloist, centering So Long! and SayoKuro... hell, the whole advertising thing of the election rotated around Yuko VS Mayu, just as the first three elections were Acchan VS Yuko.

Now Sasshi won. Mayu got 3rd. She wasn't at the front line of Heart Ereki... and let's see where she stands in the sakura single.
I simply don't see management trying to push her anymore.

She'll eventually get 1st, I guess... but I think she'll have to wait until Yuko and Sasshi are out and if she manages to stay ahead of the WMatsui, who are making big leaps every year.

Also, Kawaei, Annin, and Paruru DID get more fans. Their jumps aren't from buying cheaper votes. I think that's pretty obvious (at least AnRi). If it wasn't for Shibata, Ricchan's jump would have been the biggest in the election history.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

^ Yup, yup.

And when I said Mayu's at her strongest, I'm saying that she and management have done everything that I can think of to get her name out there and gain more fans in order to achieve number one. Think about it. Mayu declared that she wanted the throne; management plastered her face everywhere on AKB48-related things; she got another solo; Yuko seemed to even make way for her; etc etc. Despite all that, she didn't win. Fast forward to now, where all the hype has been with the three musketeers and she's no longer centering every single that's released, I think Mayu lost a bit of visibility compared to pre-2013 sousenkyo times (she wasn't even front rown in Ereki, was she?) In terms of management's support, her own motives, and climbing momentum, Mayu was strongest in 2013.

If Yuko decides to participate, then her wotas would vote like crazy, even more than last year, since their oshi is graduating. Sasshi actually said that she wanted to reclaim #1 again and everyone knows how successful KFC is (and Sasshi was put in front row in Ereki) These two are gaining more momentum and Mayu's losing them, so I think I'm justified to think that it'll be difficult for Mayu to climb to #1; at least for this year.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Sasshi was transferred because of the scandal (also the fact that she had a nervous breakdown while still there at AKB) so her going to HKT was a smart thing to do and it worked.

Takamina, and Nyan Nyan ranking have always been the same (only fell last year because of Rena and Jurina) might be the same again against this year (might move up one with Yuko more in likely not entering) even though I think Paru cracks the top 10 and might be close to the Top 5. Believe me, the old gen is still gaining new fans and always will, even if the mid gens and new gens are gaining more.

Good to see you agree with the anything can happen in the election. Now if some other people here would agree with you instead of saying that somebody has no shot or that somebody is a lock.

Hate to break it to you. They are still pushing Mayuyu.Just because she wasn't on the front row of Heart Ereki doesn't mean anything (Mayuyu was on the keyboard for give me five, so it worked for her to be there again) if Kojima wasn't the center, she would have been on the other keyboard instead of Paruru.

Mayuyu is still everywhere (She just did new commercial with Yuko and Paruru) so management hasn't given up on her. She has a shot at #1 because mayu is POPULAR and Mayuyu has a big fanbase and PEOPLE LIKE MAYUYU. Sasshi has a shot at retaining the #1 spot as well, but she aint a lock like you think she is.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

^ The coffee thing? That's becaue they're turning 20 and they can drink coffee now (or whatever).

I think management "doesn't care" that much anymore about what happens on the top. They made the road last year to be a battle between Yuko and Mayu and Sasshi ended up winning. I can imagine some AKS guy flipping tables while watching the election, tbh.

I think now they're trying to introduce new faces to the fanbase.

The three musketeers are all over the place (biggest push ever?). I wouldn't be surprised if they went straight into the UG like AnRi.
They haven't given up on Rena, so I can even imagine them giving her some sort of gimmick ala BKA48 to get her out there even more.
In the dome concerts you can see Tomu performing with the senbatsu, so I could see them having something in store for her...

Those are the girls who need the management's favor. Not the one who've been around since the beginning of time.
Hence, I think management wants more new faces in the ranking and doesn't care that much anymore about who wins this. It's not that difficult to do as the fans say... it's just for a single.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Well yeah, but they did that last year as well (the coffee ad with Mayu, Yuko, and Paruru) which I'm sure they will get somebody new for that ad with Yuko Graduating. But I was proving a point that management hasn't given up on her or anything. Cause they haven't. She's in commericals, was the female lead in the Japanese Dub the Percy Jackson sequel, also a new single last year, Centers alot of the old songs in performances (replacing u know who), and I'm sure there is a bunch of other stuff that happen as well. The road is just beginning for her as one of the centers (or center) of AKB. Every new generation needs a leader you know (why Mayu is one of them). Yeah she is 3rd Gen, but she started in AKB at the age of 12.

They do care what happens at the top. Otherwise they wouldn't have made the Acchan vs. Yuko the first 3 years and Yuko vs. Mayu last year and the probable Mayu vs. Sasshi this year. Management will help the young girls (like the ones you said, why I think Kojima Mako makes senbatsu) but also help the one at the top of the rankings. Why Mayu, Yukirin, or that Jurina girl all have a shot. Sasshi has a shot at retaining as well, you know don't know what could happen. Those girls could drop, same with the mid gen members like Rena and Anna. ANYTHING could happen. But to say management doesn't care about what happens at the top is a lie.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

The anything could happen thing is very nice, but...
It's based on what happened last year, that Sasshi ended up winning, but that's the thing. She's the one who made the impossible. If she had gained fans at the same rate as the rest (or even lost some), the results would have been the same as in 2012, but they were not.

The first 3 elections were all about Acchan VS Yuko because their votes were VERY close.
The 4th was Yuko all the way.
The 5th was when the whole thing was shaken up and that's why I think management doesn't care (as in, who wins). I think they're in a Yuko mood. It's a matsuri! The last election was the first where the girls weren't crying their eyes out at the end. It was all laugh, and I think the group needs that right now.

If Mayu doesn't ever win, would that be a problem? Mariko was 3rd at some point. Tomochin was 4th. Yukirin got to 3rd too.
Some girls go up and then others push them down. But I haven't seen an impressive increase ala Sasshi's (27 - 19 - 9 - 4 - 1) that could endanger her crown, tbh.
Yes... anything could happen... but the facts are saying otherwise.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

But that don't mean she will do the same thing two years in a row like you have her doing. Yeah she will gain more votes (Mayu too) but not as much as she did last year. Mayu could gain more then Sasshi and jump to #1. You could put 9 million facts out there and it won't mean anything.

Yeah Mariko was 3rd, but she also never fell out of the top 5 (even when Sasshi, Mayu, and Yukirin jumped past her) Tomochin peaked in 2010 (when she got 4th) and Yukirin did the same thing Sasshi did, but stalled last couple of years (cause of Mayu jumping over her in 2012, and Sasshi jumping over her in 2013). Sasshi
streak is impressive, but as you put it. Others push them down and that's what could happen with Sasshi.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Just pointing out that Mayu didn't manage to gain a considerable amount of fans last year despite all the pushes, so I don't think Mayu will see a huge rise in votes for her this year as well.

Sasshi got transferred and perhaps exposed herself to (new) HKT48's wotas, but she wasn't in the front row of the group, didn't release a new solo single, and didn't get special treatment from management. She wasn't even trying to gain #1 but she did anyway, achieving remarkable fanbase growth with arguably half of the effort put to push Mayu. Imagine what kind of power she would have now that she explicitly say that she wants the crown and that the song that she's centering was a huge hit!

Yuko too; she didn't even try to ask fans for votes in her appeal video, just stated that it's a festival and everyone should have fun. Yet even though she's shoved aside to make way for Mayu (never centering her own song despite being #1 after Acchan left, safe for Gingham -- fans' choice -- and UZA, and we all know why the latter was so), she still ranked better than Mayu.

The difference of votes between Mayu and Yuko in 2012 was 36,263. In 2013, it was 35,293. Mayu managed to raise an additional 970 votes. She needs an additional votes of more than 35,000 votes to beat Yuko and more than 48,000 to beat Sasshi this year. In 2012, where all the attention is on her and the momentum building up and management's blatant favoritism on her being the next ace, she was only 970 votes closer, from the 35,000 she needed to raise. 970 out 35,000 is 2.77%, to put it into perspective.

So yes, Sasshi can be pushed down as you mentioned, but it's a bit difficult when she can rank first easily without any special effort from her/management's side (and now she's saying she wants to be #1! And management's promoting KFC like crazy!) And if anyone's going to take her down, I'd say it'd be one of the new gen/sister group member (like Jurina, who's both) since they're the ones that have big leaps of votes each year, unlike Mayu.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

The answer is in my previous post, and do I really have to explain that further. Okay then. Since both Ricchan and Annin didn't rank in 2012 all you have to do is treat their total votes as their vote increase from 2012 to 2013 and compare it to Mayu's. Since Mayu's vote increase is greater than each of their total votes, isn't it logical to think that Mayu gained more fans last year than them? Don't tell me that Mayu didn't really gain more fans compared to the other girls 'cause her votes only increased due to the cheaper theater edition with voting tickets, and her fans did some strategy by only buying it 'cause the other girls' fans also have access to it and I'm sure they're not that dumb not to be able to think whatever strategy Mayu fans could've thought of.

Do you know that fans of the other girls were not prohibited from buying the theater edition? You make it sound like Mayu fans are the only ones who could benefit from that.

So, you're saying that fans of the other girls aren't smart enough to employ the same strategy?

Takamina says hello. seems like that cheaper theater edition didn't have that much impact after all. more like everyone just became more popular. Like you said, "we don't know where the votes come from". For all we know, that cheaper theater edition might have added only a few votes to Mayu and it's really the new fans' votes that made the bigger impact on her vote increase. That's why I said that it's too early to say that she already peaked because we don't really know.

Yes, she had all those in 2012-2013 and did less in 2013-2014, so far but that doesn't mean that she already peaked. She fell by 1 spot in the ranking but her total votes didn't decrease or remain the same. We can only tell if she already peaked or not in this coming election where we can really see if having less activity (which is still a lot actually) has an effect on her momentum, and also where we don't have to worry about the impact of the cheaper theater edition.

I think the reason why the management didn't do that much for Mayu after the election is because they don't really need to. She's already very popular. She's already close to where they want her to be. Unlike before where although she ranked 2nd, her votes was just 70k+, clearly still so far from the level of being a top 1 or 2 member. What they needed to do the most right now is fill the holes the graduated members left, thus hyping the three musketeers and the other young members. She didn't center any single but the management also didn't choose anyone from the newer gens, so we can't really say they already gave up on her. She wasn't in the front row of Heart Ereki 'cause she shouldn't be, the front row girls for that song are the girls the management is expecting to graduate next. Everyone know how successful KFC is but everyone knows it as AKB's song, not Sasshi's. The management still supports Mayu. In most AKB activites, she's still the one being put in front or center. Based on Mayu's position in commercials, events, etc. clearly the management is still looking at her to replace Yuko as the group's ace when she graduates. So, I think it's wrong to assume that she's losing momentum, at worst, she probably just maintained it.

They're introducing new faces 'cause they need to replace those who graduated, not because they no longer care what's happening at the top. Why do you think the old gen girls are not graduating at the same time? It's because those new faces you are talking about still can't stand on their own.

If you're going to base it on history then it's on Mayu's side. No one has ever won the election twice in a row.

on what basis? Mayu's vote increase in 2012-2013 is greater than the 2012-2013 vote increase (their total votes since they didn't rank in 2012) of Ricchan's and Annin's and you said they both gained considerable amount of fans while Mayu didn't?

The special effort came from her ex. Again, KFC is not Sasshi's own single, it's AKB's, Mayu is in the PV as well and also performs it on shows with her, so she also benefits a lot from it.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Very surprising for people to be saying Sasshi rank will drop in 2013 due to her scandal, and now after the elections, people are saying her rank increased because of her scandal. For typical idols that went through a scandal, they will be very apologetic and do their best to be the best idol they can be again. Sasshi is different; a few days later she started talking stuffs that will attract haters again. I don't think such act can attract new fans who get to know her through this scandal. Throughout the years, be it after the scandal, be it after winning the 2013 election, her carefree and brutally honest attitude (rather than trying hard get good image) always worried her fans whether her popularity will go down.

Anyways, I had always believe that Sasshi gain most fans through variety shows, which surprisingly no one has mentioned this yet. No one in AKB even come decently close to her when it comes to her performance and participation in non-AKB related variety shows. With this in mind, she has mentioned several times that after winning 2013 election, she became very busy with other stuffs and is frequently deprived of variety shows. This could be bad for her in stabilizing / gaining fans. Of course she has another strong fanbase that's gathered from HKT48 and her hometown. I believe we have seen news and videos on how united and spirited her fanbase in these areas are. But I don't think this fanbase here has grown considerably since mid-2013.

And no, I don't think KFC will gain her popularity, even if it's a huge hit. Heavy Rotation certainly didn't help Yuko to surpass Acchan twice in a row. In fact I think being covered about so much in the media for certain events / happenings will make people tired of you (just for that year that is). Perhaps this is why it's so hard to win twice in a row. I never think fans had been complacent.

Still with all these negative factors, I think she will win the election, cause I'm more inclined to predict Mayuyu popularity has peaked. Last year everything is in favour of her, even beating Yuko in preliminary. At that point I'm sure all fans will think this is her best chance. If they didn't go all out, then I don't think they ever will.

Yukirin's popularity continues to make me curious. So her ranking and votes garnered this year will continue to be of keen interest to me.

At the moment, I believe this is about it for WMatsui, cause I have also believed this is about it for SKE's popularity. I don't think they will become any further popular. I think their appearance in Kouhaku 2012 helped them in 2013, and from there, they have peaked. This goes for not just for election, but for single sales as well.

Sayaka and Milky continues to be insanely popular, plus their debut at Kouhaku will help them and NMB further in 2014. After Yuko is gone, they are the ones leading the handshakes sell-out ranking. And it is factored that they are in both NMB and AKB handshake events, which show how insanely superior they are to all AKB-unique handshake members like Mayuyu, Yukirin etc. All concurrent members have experienced significant drop in handshake sell-out speed / sales during concurrent, and increased significantly again after concurrent. This includes Sasshi, who after being transferred to HKT48, her handshake sell-out speed decreased.

Yui I think she has more or less peaked, at most increase in rank due to graduated members.

People like Kitarie will probably not come back. She has too many casual fans rather than wotas. Most people are at most be like "Ok, I like her" and that's it. For Umechan, though she has some unified wotas, but it's just too few for her to make it to senbatsu, especially when the push on next-gen is so strong.

Kojiharu... if she is participating this year, I'm sure she will do well and most likely beat Takamina as well.

Well that's about it for my predictions. Note that none of this are my hopes. My hopes will be very different.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

This thread is half a year early lol

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

lol I did that on purpose 'cause the answer to your first question was already on my previous post but you didn't see it. Plus, you already posted 3 long posts when I came back. and nothing is delusional about my comments. this coming election, every girl's votes starts from 0, not from where they left off last year. So it's still possible for Mayu to win, it's not like she did not rank at all last year or something, she was 3rd. Oh well, if I would've said that Sasshi has a chance to win the election last year, for sure someone would've told me the same. :dunno:

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

agreed, it's a whole new year. When the election begins this year, everything about last years election will be gone and it will be a whole new ballgame. Sasshi, Mayu, Yukirin, Jurina all have a shot. Even somebody not named has a shot at #1.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

She's even further from being the top 1-2 member now? She has 70k votes in 2012 and Yuko had 100k. Now she has 100k votes and Yuko has 130k votes (same difference) and Sasshi has 150k votes. Mayu needs more votes than ever now because Sasshi gains more than her and Yuko. Why would management stop with all the insane pushes when Mayu needs this more than ever, when she's 3rd?

I think management puts her in Acchan's place because, well, that spot needs to be filled and she's the only one that actually wants it and is available. Can't give it to Paru cause the girl's a ponkotsu; Yuihan's the captain role now; Kawaei and Annin have just started to be in senbatsu. Who else? The other senbatsu girls are either old (by an idol's standard) or members of sister groups. It's like management saying, "Well, someone needs to stand in the center-- nope, not you Oshima, you'll graduate soon so it won't do in the long run for the public to associate our brand with you. Kawaei, Iriyama? Nope, you go stand in Shinoda and Itano's place. Huh, don't we have someone young to fill in-- ah, of course! Watanabe, center spot, now!"

Management doesn't make new gens as center yet because the girls are not ready. Even Paru hasn't centered her own song (Eien Pressure was by janken); she had to share the spotlight with Mayu, Tomochin, and Yuko in So Long! Renacchi, heavily pushed as she is, didn't make it to Ereki senbatsu (they opted for Aichan instead). There's a certain line that management's not willing to cross when it comes to pushing, so "Mayu didn't center any single but the management also didn't choose anyone from the newer gens" means naught.

And there's Sasshi in Ereki's front row, so I doubt that it's for the girls that would want to graduate soon. Age-wise? Yui and Sasshi are the same age. Generation-wise? Miichan's first gen.

Kawaei and Annin got to UG from nothing. Mayu ranked down. If Sasshi was out of the picture, she'd rank the same. She might gained more fans, but it's not by a considerable amount that she's able to beat Yuko, and that's that.

I counted it this way, actually:

Spoiler

Mayu's votes in 2013 is roughly 100,000. Discounting a general increase of votes by 30% due to theater editions, it would be 70,000, which isn't much different from the votes that she had in in 2012 (no new votes, just the effect of "inflation")

Kawaei's votes in 2013 is roughly 26,000. Discounting a general increase ("inflation") of 30%, her "clean" votes would be about 18,200 votes.

Idk how many % of increase of votes, but from other random numbers:

20% increase
Mayu: 80,000 true votes (gained 10,000)
Kawaei: 20,800 true (gained 20,800)

40% increase
Mayu: 60,000 true votes (lost 10,000 votes)
Kawaei: 15,600 true votes (gained 15,600)

And since Kawaei would have less than 5,000 in 2012 (since she didn't rank), no matter how you look at it, her votes have grown more than Mayu.

Really?

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I'm talking in terms of level of popularity, someone with a 70k+ votes clearly isn't on the level of popularity of what a top 1 or 2 member should be which usually get over 100k votes. You asked why the management stopped the insane pushes? my question is, did they really stop? It may not be as noticeable compared back then because we're already used to it but she actually is still pushed. Put a girl from the newer gen in Mayu's position right now on all the opportunities given to her by the management and you'll hear AKB fans say that the girl is insanely pushed.

The reason of Mayu's exclusion in the front row girls of Heart Ereki is also the same reason why those in the front row aren't in these pics.

Spoiler

Errr... where did that number came from? source? Trinu and I were arguing a lot because we don't know how much impact the theater edition made in the total number of votes, and you suddenly come out with that number. Did you just assume that Mayu's vote increase is solely because of the votes from theater edition? and because hers increased by around 30k and her votes are about 100k you concluded that the impact of the theater edition is about 30%? really? like it's not because she gained new fans? not even a few thousands even after all her efforts and the management's? 'cause that's really impossible imo.

I think you should measure the number of fans gained by the actual count of the votes and not by percentage. because if we make things simpler, let's say a member has 1 vote in 2011 and in 2012 she has 3 votes, then that would mean a 200% increase. Wouldn't it be funny to say that a member gained a considerable amount of fans when she only gained 2 and a member who gained thousands of votes didn't. When you do the comparison that way the the results will heavily favor the person with the smaller amount of votes. For all we know, the impact of the theater edition could have been just a few hundreds of votes. Take a look at Takamina's total votes as an example it only increased by around 3k and not tens of thousands of votes like what the inflation of your computation says. Does that mean that her fans weren't allowed to buy the theater edition?

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Will Miyazawa be able to be eligible for this election? Will any of the JKT or SHN girls be allowed? Gon didn't participate because the JKT girls were not allowed to be eligible right? (though some of them did turn up for the election sitting with Akicha).

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

they haven't even announced the election yet, let alone who'll be eligible or even the format.

I think aki-p will be the winner $$$$$$$$$$

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I don't understand why they won't let them participate. It's not like it's so hard to put their names up for voting and let the fans decide.

I don't know about the acquisition power those countries have (Japan is considered to be an expensive country compared to any other place in the world...), so I don't know if it would make a difference? Maybe the fans won't be able to afford the votes neccessary to make a single girl rank.

But then I really doubt King Records cares about that... once you've purchased a copy, that's money for them and I bet they couldn't care less about where the votes go... so maybe it's the way to achieve 2 millions?

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

^^let's say, worst case scenario, you need to come up with 24.000+ votes to make a girl rank (assuming there are 64 ranks). Then you'd need around 240.000 $ to make that girl rank.

It's a lot, but if you have a lot of fans, you can do it. I believe fans will figure out before the election whether they can find that amount of votes, at least it would be a good idea to do so ;-)

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Im really curious about where the Three Musketeers will rank, especially KojiMako... And i also would like KatoRena to rank somewhere, but i see it harder and harder every year