Event / Concert 37th Single Senbatsu Sousenkyo (2014/06/07)

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

@Jayden: Yukirin was #4 (of if u just mean akb then 3 I guess). Also I think those fans are now worried about Jurina and Rena coming up so they wont go easy even if Yuki is fine with her spot . It's a pretty big leap for ske but I'm ready for anything. Hopefully they can keep it close with Mayu again.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Yeah but I was saying third place because of Yukirin making her comment about her satisfaction being at that place in the Gingham election.

It would be pretty hilarious to see the two Matsuis in 4th and 5th though. (Kinda miss Mariko in her stable 5th position but oh well..)

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I personally don't see mayuyu beating sasshi. She only got 2/3 of sasshi's vote count last time and for a really popular member to gain another 50k votes is a big ask. I just wonder if yukirin might unexpectedly beat mayuyu this year... She has the advantage of not a huge voting gap between them for the last two elections and also of not being pushed as a new ace so much. In a way, fans are free to like yukirin without having to wonder about her replacing acchan or whatever. It's kind of like a dark horse thing... Like last time everyone was so distracted by yuko vs mayuyu that sasshi waltzed right past them lol.
I think kojiharu will see a boost this time, not just cuz of mariko's absence (and quite possibly yuko's) but because of her popular photobook and the good response to her centering heart ereki.
I wonder what will happen with w matsui's eternal struggle this time...

Ahhh this will be so fun!

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

All these comments saying "I just don't see Mayuyu beating Sasshi" is exactly why I have a feeling Sasshi's votes will drop this year. There's a really strong belief that Sasshi will win the election easily, a very different situation compared to last year where her fans are panic buying votes 'cause of the fear that she'll drop so low in the ranking due to her scandal. Those fans who bought multiple votes for her may not do the same or may not buy as much this time and there probably will be less campaigning for her this year.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I do think that Jo Eriko will sneak in this Sousenkyo with high votes for no reason.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Again, the increase Sasshi got wasn't just the same fans buying more copies. Hell, she got 30k votes IN ONE DAY. She is just popular.
Her fans only have to do the same thing they did last year and she'll have the crown on her pocket. And maybe got a couple more copies and break her own record of votes.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

The reason would be that she's in NMB again

Anyway, I predict (hope) that 7th gen girls will rank higher -- Sumire had that Vanquish & In 197666 gig, Wasamin with her single, and Ayarin's always seemed to be around lately (subbing and whatnots?). Miorin and Minarun would probably rank higher too, given their concurrency. Renacchi would probably sneak her way to Future/Next Girls, the way management seemed to insist on her push. AnRi would make senbatsu and Paru and Yui breaking top 10. I can see Kitarie ranking up too, now that there's so little K representative. Same goes for Yagi and Tomu, and Abemaru could possibly rank as well (she ranked in the preliminary last year, after all). Miichan has been gaining momentum with being 4 captain and that Gouriki moves, so she might make it to senbatsu again.

Akicha would probably go down in rank, since she's not doing anything much in Japan and Indonesian fans don't have the purchasing power to give a lot of votes for her (and there are Akicha-antis here too, I heard). If Mayu fans can't bring her to #1 last year, then she probably won't claim it this year. Akarin, like the all the previous #16, would drop in rank. Same with Shibata. Maybe Sakuratan would be UG center, considering her big leaps each year. I can also see Takamina dropping, as it seems to be her trend each year.. (;n Sae too (if she decides to participate), since she's on Shanghai more now.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

That's why I said "Those fans", and I'm sure there's a lot of them. Oh, and she got 28,516 votes in one day, not 30k.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Do agree on Akicha dropping. Giving that her rank has dropped the last 3 years. Also Mayu has a chance at the #1 spot, just because she didn't get last year doesn't mean anything. Sasshi moved from 4 to 1 last year. So anything is possible.

I think there are 4 favorites for the #1 spot this year. Sasshi, Mayu, Yukirin, and Jurina. Anyone of those 4 could get the #1 spot this year.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I think the only thing you could say about Sasshi, is how many of those people are idol fans, or are invested enough to vote again. Everyone has their theories as to where those votes come from, but if she has what some say is 'mainstream appeal', or has more 'casual' fans maybe, there is a chance her novelty could fade with those who cared to see her win the first time, instead of supporting AKB or wanting to follow her idol life more closely than that.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I think Sasshi fans are pretty invested. She declared her intention to be #1 again, and don't forget that despite winning #1, she didn't get to act much like an ace this year except for centering KFC. But if she ranks again, things might change for her as the first girl to get that spot twice in a row. Those thoughts are likely to motivate her fans to secure her the crown once more. Plus if scandal helped Sasshi's name to get out there, KFC being AKB's super huge hit would definitely benefit her as well.

Ehh I don't like saying this since I might sound super biased, but I think (at least hope lol) that Ayachan won't drop much in ranking, and might even increase. If she got to #17 with only dedicated SKE fans, you need to consider that she has been a lot more active in the past year (lots of photoshoots, group CMs, SKE senbatsu) and sells out as much handshake tickets as all the top members meaning that she will probably have a lot more people supporting her this time.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Except, it would also benefit the rest of the members as most non idol fans won't remember it as her song but AKB's, unlike her scandal where all the attention is on her. Also, a hit song doesn't generate as much publicity as a celebrity scandal (especially if it's a photo of a young female celeb).

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

You really want to bring all our reasons down so you can say Mayu will win? Alright...

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

hahahaha! [rofl] I didn't say at all that Mayu will win, my point is just it's not impossible for her or anyone who ranked below Sasshi to win because Jayden called the OP "hugely deluded" when he/she posted his/her prediction that Mayu will win. you too, you always oppose anything positive about Mayu. lol

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I think it does mean something though; if last year Mayu couldn't secure first place with all the hype built around her and this year Sasshi actually said that she wanted 1st, I'd say it's going to be hard for Mayu to reach first. After all, Sasshi didn't declare any intention of wanting to be 1st, didn't have her face plastered on every AKB48-related merchandise, didn't have people calling her "the next ace", didn't release a new solo single last year, and had a scandal, but she still reigned supreme. It's like Sasshi didn't even have to try and was still gaining fans, while Mayu, with all those momentum and opportunity that management has given her, couldn't even held on to her #2 spot. But yeah, she does have a chance, of course. All the girls in the roster has a chance, no matter how big/small it is, to be #1.

The thing is, I think all the 1st-3rd gen senbatsu members aren't gaining more fans. Everyone has been exposed to them and people would make up their mind by now if they're going to oshi these girls, since we've seen it all with them. It's the younger gens and sister groups members that can still achieve growth, imo.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Well, going by that logic, then Acchan should have never won the third election since you could say the same about her - she was also more pushed than Yuko yet she still lost to her in the 2nd election, but did she lose in the 3rd election? no. [shake] just goes to show that no matter what the result of the previous election is, anything could happen in the next. Oh, and you shouldn't list the scandal as a disadvantage on Sasshi's part 'cause that actually helped her. I think that even generated more publicity for her than all the things you mentioned as Mayu's advantage combined.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

The scandal actually helped her you know. She might not have jumped from 4-1 if they didn't happen. The support for her was the reason she became #1. The 1st-3rd gen senbatsu are still gaining more fans because they know who they are and will still gain fans for as long as they are in AKB48 and even after they graduate. Sasshi is proof of that. Even thought she isn't a 1st-3rd gen member, she is a 5th Gen member which started in October of 2007. Sasshi isn't exactly a young member, she's an old gen member just like Mayu, Yuko, and Yukirin.

Exactly, ANYTHING could happen with the election. Sasshi or Mayu or both could fall out of the top 2 for all we know. It's why you can't say anybody is a lock for the #1 spot. I'd love it to be Mayu, but I'm not going to say she is a lock for it because she isn't. Just like Sasshi as #1 isn't a lock.

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I really hope Momoka gets put in at least Future Girls. And Mayuyu for center. (yes i'm very oshi-centered)

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

I was going by the general rule of thumb that scandals usually screw up an idol's career (before Miichan and Sasshi ofc; I recalled Ayarin and Yuttan being kicked out because of this, and how many thought that Sasshi's doomed when she got transferred?)

There's some predictability in the third sousenkyo though -- naturally Acchan's fans would go all out since their oshi lost her crown in the previous election. It's in 2013 that Mayu fans can pull off an Acchan, since Mayu said she wanted that #1 spot and management has given her all the opportunities. Even Yuko said things like "Even if I wanted to win, it'd be boring if I get first place again," and "Mayu, use me a stepping ladder." That's Mayu at her strongest, and she still didn't manage to beat Yuko. That's why I said it might be difficult for Mayu to rank 1st this year when all the momentum she got last year couldn't even bring her to #2.

Also, it was kinda easy for Acchan since she was always #1 anyway, and in the 2nd sousenkyo, imo AKB48 was just starting to peak and there were tons of Acchan-antis that would prefer anyone to center AKB48 rather than the immovable ace -- naturally, the picked the #2, Yuko.

Sasshi was transferred and got a whole new audience that respected and appreciated her with helping HKT48 to get more recognition. The rest of the old gen senbatsu isn't doing anything new, and if you look at the sousenkyo results, their rankings will be roughly the same if sister groups members didn't climb up (Yuko, Mayu, and Yukirin went down 1 rank because Sasshi went up 4; likewise with Takamina, Nyan, and Tomochin going down because WMatsui ranked up). If they are gaining new fans, it's not by a considerable amount like Kawaei, Annin, or Paru.

And I do agree that anything could happen with the sousenkyo (it's what makes them interesting, after all!) I always used "probably", "imo", and "might be" in my predictions for that very reason. I never said it's impossible for Mayu to rank first or that Sasshi will absolutely be center again, but I tried to predict things based on the stuff that have happened in the past. It's like saying, "Oh, (old) Team 4 has disbanded; wotas would probably make one of T4 songs rank 1st the Request Hour."

I would personally be ecstatic if Yukirin ranks 1st though. Small chance, but one can dream, right?

 

Re: Super Early Prediction for Sousenkyo 2014

Are you from the future? how did you know that? lol too early... I think it's too early to say that she already peaked. I'd understand if her votes increased by only 3k+ like Takamina's but it did by almost 30k, that's more than twice the increase she got in 2012 - so it's not safe to say yet that she already peaked. Imagine if she doubles her increase again, her votes would reach 155k+. With the amount of votes that Sasshi got last year (the highest in the history of the election), she might actually be closer to her ceiling (if she did not peak yet) than Mayu. If their ceiling are about the same and last year was just a case of Sasshi getting closer to or reaching hers faster 'cause of all the publicity she got, then Mayu has a pretty good chance to win.

You do know that Mayu's increase in votes last year alone would make her rank 24th right? thats higher than Ricchan's or Annin's. That means she actually gained more fans than them last year. It's actually just Paru who gained more than Mayu last year and it's not by much, and I think that's just because of the kind of push she received combined by the fact that she isn't that well known yet compared to Mayu.